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Thread: Hurricane Ivan

  1. #1
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    Hurricane Ivan

    While Tropical Strom Frances continues it's trak across Florida and it's strike at the panhandle on Monday afternoon, we must cast a blurry eye to the southeast and consider Ivan.

    Already Ivan is big and will get bigger. Now a cat 3, could easily go cat 4 and possibly a cat 5. So what are we looking at?

    The preliminary track has Ivan moving towards south Florida by Saturday afternoon. Before everyone gets nervous, there are different factors as work here. One the path is different from that of Frances, being a little further south. This is good and bad news depending on where you live. The bad news it will likely take a track across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba before reaching Florida. Those places will see some serious damage. On the flip side, the mountains of Hispaniola nd eastern Cuba will do serious damage to Ivan before it reaches the US mainland. If that is the case, Ivan would be anoyher Frances...very wet, but not quite as windy.

    Stay tuned....

  2. #2
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    Latest information on Hurricane Ivan has the hurricane re-intensifying into a major hurricane once again within the next 24 hours. Favorable upper air environment plus the fact that Ivan is going to move into a region of 86 degree ocean water are just what this thing needs to grow.

    Latest model guidance has Ivan tracking off to the west-northwest and unfortunately, has southern Florida in his sights sometime for late Sunday and early Monday. Way too early to determine what Ivan's strength will be at the time of landfall since there is still question to exact track. Unlike Frances, Ivan could track across Hispaniola before impacting Florida. Hispaniola's high mountain terrain has proven to be hurricane killer in season's past

  3. #3
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    Good News Bad News kind of report.

    The good news maybe for Florida. There seems to be a chance that Ivan will actually stay on a more southerly route which would take it below Cuba before it begins to move more northwest into the Gulf. This would spare Florida another hurricane.

    The bad news is that Ivan could move over some of the warmest waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico which is high octane gas for these storms. Hurricane Ivan has a good chance of going Cat 5. Also once Ivan does get into the Gulf, it has to hit something. If Ivan were to stay on a westerly track, thyen the Yucatan and eventually Mexico would suffer a hit. Anything more northwesterly and we are looking at the northwestern Gulf of Mexico landfall which would be Texas or Louisiana. Timeframe would be a Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

    There are still too many factors in play here to cast the final track in concrete so please view this analysis as a best summatiuon based on current info and will be subject to change.

  4. #4
    GOLDEN DREAMS RealtorGal's Avatar
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    I am SO glad I took my Caribbean cruise in June and not now!

    Spoke to my Mom today--she said that in her area, Boynton Beach, most of the damage is downed trees. She's out and about, but they're bracing for Ivan, just in case.

  5. #5
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    Looks like a split decision on the models this morning and I hate it when it does this.

    First of all, Ivan is now 140 mph and most likely will go higher over the next couple of days.

    Here is the problem. One set of models carries Ivan on a west to west-northwest path into the western Caribbean and eventually into the Yucatan. On this path, it avoids Florida and most of the islands. Some of the models are now bringing Ivan on a path almost identical to Charley, bringing him into the southwest coast of Florida. One model even goes as far as to recurve the thing out to the Atlantic before it reaches Florida. The reason for the wide variation is how the models are handling the movement of major features in the upper levels of the atmosphere that are an influence to Ivan. The problem is any one of them could be correct since each model has slightly different assumptions in how the atmospheric processes work. The official track has Ivan moving into southwest Florida early Monday morning.......right now I am NOT completely onboard with this solution. This is Wednesday, a lot can happen in the next three days to dictate where Ivan will be by Monday morning so stay tuned...........

  6. #6
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    This we do know. Hurricane Ivan is now a strong cat 4 with winds of 140 mph. The winds are likely to increase over the next day or two as Ivan moves into a very favorable environment both aloft as well as at the surface with very warm water to feed off of. The models all agree that for the next 72 hours, Ivan is going to move towards Jamaica and most likely devastate that island sometime in the Friday/early Saturday timeframe. After 72 hours, the models widely diverge as the environment in which Ivan moves is going to undergo some drastic changes. One model actually has Ivan recurving over eastern Cuba and heading into the open Atlantic, missing the US other than for some fringe effects. Right now, not likely but is a remote possibility. The other end of the spectrum has Ivan continuing west into the Yucatan...again remote but still a possibility. Most of the models hint at Ivan swinging more to the north, crossing western Cuba and then either moving up the west coast of Florida or actually snashing into the south tip of Florida. If this scenario plays out, Ivan will be weakened by the mountains of Cuba plus the water north of Cuba is not as warm with two previous hurricanes disturbing the sea surface temperatures.

    If I were to chose right now, I favor a swing up the west coast of Florida, making landfall in the Cedar Key area sometime late Monday/early Tuesday timeframe. This is by no means set in concrete and a wait and see policy is still prudent. Hopefully later tomorrow or Friday the models will begin to converge on a consensus.

  7. #7
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    Hurricane Ivan is now a cat 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts close to 190 mph.

    Models are still in some disagreement as to what will happen beyond Saturday. Hopefully a better picture will emerge this morning.

  8. #8
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    Hurricane Ivan currently has sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts to 210 mph and is a cat 5.

    Current thinking is that it will move towards Jamaica, cross Cuba and most likely make land fall in southwest Florida with winds of 140 mph. This one could go up Tampa Bay unlike Charley who went over Punta Gorda.

    I will hasten to add that there is still a wide divergence between the models beyond day 3 and there is still room for change.

    Stay tuned....

  9. #9
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    Unless the track changes or the wind speed decreases, Jamaica will be a disaster. We have the satellite imagery on the big screen here at work and to see this huge buzz saw heading for Jamaica is much like watching the planes hit the twin towers. You know it is going to be bad and there isn't a damn thing you can do about it.

    Right now the estimate is that sustained winds will be around 160 and gusts to 200 mph. Take in account the mountains of Jamaica and it doesn't look good.

    Further on, the latest model guidance shifts the path to the left of the earlier track. This would take it over Key West then up the west coast of Florida. Problem is there is no real confidence in the track beyond Saturday since there are still many factors in the upper levels of the atmosphere that the models are having a hard time sorting out. I think we are going to see more shifts in the track both east and west before things become clearer later Saturday and Sunday morning. The Keys will begin to see affects on Sunday night/Monday morning, assuming Ivan doesn't decide to slow down.

  10. #10
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    Ivan is still putting out 145 mph winds so it's still a strong cat 4.

    Next on the block, Jamaica. Sometime later tonight the storm will move over them. After that, the Caymans with the hurricane probably going over the smaller island. Winds in both cases will be in the 140 to 150 mph range with gusts in the 170 to 190 mph range

    The track still has Ivan crossing Cuba then moving up the west coast of Florida. Right now it could directly over Key West then rake the west coast all the way to Cedar Keys before moving inland sometime later Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds could be in the 125 to 140 mph range.

  11. #11
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    At 5pm EDT Ivan was about 80 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving to the west northwestwest. The winds have decresed to 140 mph and on it's current track, Ivan will cross the extreme southern corner of the island. The damage probably will be appaling since the mountains will due odd things to the 140 mph speeds.

    The next stop will be the Cayman Islands tomorrow night. Ivan will go through them, the question is how much will Ivan be weakened by it's brush with Jamaica and will the track be altered slightly....both questions that won't be known until the morning.

    After the Caymans, it's Cuba where Ivan will cross sometime on Sunday, probably near Havana. This is where the track gets a little more fuzzy. The models are indicating the development of an upper level low over the eastern Gulf. I know this is all gobbly-di-gook to you none weather weenies out there but it will be a big player on what Ivan does as far as the US is concened. Development and placement of this feature determines how quickly the track is pulled more to the north. A quick turn and needless to say it moves into southern Florida. A not-so-quick pull and the hurricane tracks up the west coast of the state, basically raking the coast from the Keys all the way to cedar Keys. This would create storm surges all along the coast in all the little inlets.

    Right now we are leaning towards a just off the west coast of the state run up the coast with winds in the 120 to 130 mph range. The wind speed depends on what happens in Ivan's encounter with Cuba.

  12. #12
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    We got lucky...

    Ivan took a wobble to the west and spared Jamaica the eyewall with it's 155 mph winds and gusts to 210 mph. There will be serious damage but at least the island did not cease to exist.

    Next up the Caymans and Cuba.

    The wobble may prove the factor to spare south Florida another serious hurricane threat. The track now has shifted west and looks like a landfall on the Big Bend region near Cedar Key sometime late Tuesday/early Wednesday. With this track, the keys would get a glancing blow. Again I will caution that this thing still has a few days to go and things could still happen to to influence the final track and landfall.

    For those hoping for a further west track, don't wish too hard. If the track gets far enough west and makes landfall in southern Mississippi, that would be catastrophic. Ivan would track over a pool of near 90 degree water and it could seriously intensify.....this is what happened when Hurricane Camille came ashore in August of 1969 with 190 mph winds and gusts to 230.

  13. #13
    Da' Spellin' Homegirl Grgranny's Avatar
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    Oh, Figgy, thank you so much for all these updates. I think it's time for more prayers for all the victims. Hope you don't mind my nicknames.

  14. #14
    On Edge Piel's Avatar
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    I hope it spares Grand Cayman. I own a vacation home there.....actually my doctor owns it but I paid for it. :D :D :D He does let me look at the picture of it hanging in his office everytime I visit.

  15. #15
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    Actually Grgranny, a lot of people call me either figgy or figgyskates, and I kinda like it.

    Lord knows as a weatherman I have been called far worse!!

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