Olympic Team Competition Predictions

I'll be honest- I kinda forgot that we also have the team competition to watch over.

Anyhow, some questions:
1. Who will win the gold (or the other medals) this time and why?
2. Are there any other country teams that you're excited to see?
3. Who do you think should skate in each segment?

Here's mine
1. Gold - Canada, Silver - US, Bronze - Russia

Canada has a top contender in Mens (Chan), Ice Dance (V/M or W/P) and Pairs (D/R or Seg/Bilo). Their ladies (Gabby and Kaetlyn) are doing better competitively so they should be in the mix for the 2nd-4th placements.

US has a top contender in Mens (Chen, Aaron, Rippon, Brown), Ice Dance (S/S, C/B/, or Hub/Don) and Ladies (Wagner, Gold, or etc.). Pairs is their weakest competition-wise. We'll have to see how S-K/K or Kayne/O-shea might do next season.

Russia has a top contender in Ladies (Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, or etc.) and Pairs (Stol/Klim or T/M). The men's side isn't so bad since they have Kolyada, Aliev, or whoever but RusFed needs to stop making unecessary interventions with their programs. The ice dance isn't so bad either but the federation needs to plan this segment carefully. They have Bobrova/Soloviev as their power card. Should they skate in both segments but tire them before the main competition or risk losing placements by relying on either Step/Buk, I/Z, or S/K?

2. Because I'm biased, I want to see who will be part of SK's team? Also, Team Japan makes an intriguing case. They have some nice ice dance teams, and new pairs. And they have the most encouraging and cutest team KnC interactions. :luv17:

3. I'm still formulating this!

Ahem

#AUSTRALIAFORTHETEAMEVENT

That is all.

quite early... but yeah...

1)
I agree on your placements... I think Canada at this point is better rounded. USA's only weakness is pairs but their ladies are not doing as well as usual this year. Russia is no longer on top in any discipline except the ladies... and even if they probably have 5 of the best 10 ladies in the world, only one will count per segment.
2)
I am curious to see teams like Italy, Germany and France as they could create some trouble... and place ahead in some segments as skaters from the top 3 teams. I am wondering if we will see teams like Czech Republic or Israel...
3)

For Canada, this time around I think things will b slightly different.
I think men will be all Patrick... I doubt they would risk putting another men in there...
I think ladies could be interesting split. For instance, I can see Kaetlyn doing the short and Gabby the long.
Pairs and dance.... which one gets a second berth to split sp/lp... I think that it will depends on how D/R are doing next year. Pairs is traditionally the first event at the games so it would be best if they split it up... I'd say that D/R's BV is so much higher in the LP that they should skate the LP while S/B skate the SP... if they retrieve their momentum...
Dance could be all VM and it makes sense unless Canada decided to go with only one lady... then I'd say that it could be interesting to play strategically here... for instance, making sure that Canada ranks really high with the SD.... as hoping that either the French or Italian team is left out completely for FDs (which may be a long shot) and then put Canada's #2 team in the mix... however, that may be dangerous...

For USA : I honestly don't know how they will split things... Pairs being their weak event, it seems like they will have to take their best team and let them go for both events... dance is so strong and interchangeable for them... I'm guessing that Chock and Bates would do better in rumba and the shibs would do the FD...

Ladies... that will be super interesting ... if it were this season, i'd send wagner alone... but it had been last season, i'd send gracie for the short and wagner for the long...

men : by then, I wouldn't be surprised if it were Nathan all the way.

Russia : Kolyada all the way.
Pairs : T/M should do the short... and S/K the long.
Ladies : Medvedeva all the way... I wouldn't risk it if I were them.... yes the russian #2 girl could place very high, but when you have medvedeva almost certain on winning first place every time she skates, is that something you want to gamble with?
Dance : B/S and S/B... but i think in the end, they would use B/S all the way.... teams do not need to split their segments... so Russia may consider that for all events except for pairs where their two teams are more or less even internationally.... of course, pairs being the first event is also part of the equation..

4everchan said:

Ladies : Medvedeva all the way... I wouldn't risk it if I were them.... yes the russian #2 girl could place very high, but when you have medvedeva almost certain on winning first place every time she skates, is that something you want to gamble with?

Click to expand...

What about Polina T? Between her and Medvedeva, would consider both to be equally safe bets...

kalee said:

What about Polina T? Between her and Medvedeva, would consider both to be equally safe bets...

Click to expand...

well... it will depend how the judges score her... nobody knows about that yet in seniors right?

I think there is a similar thread somewhere out there beyond the skating Gods but nonetheless it is rather early.

I think the top teams are United States, Canada, Russia. Japan might be up there just because of singles skating - I would think it would be more fair to use scores than placements as I find it irksome that even though they are making strides (though ironically using non Japanese skaters) in dance and pairs they still are remarkably weak in those fields. China might be in the mix for a medal with men, pairs and a decent lady. What makes it exciting is that the American team in particular could blow everyone out of the water with Ashley/Gracie, Nathan, dance and pairs if they skate their best but they could also be the most vulnerable as their men could implode as well as their ladies and pairs. They really are only a sure bet in dance.

It's always too early for these types of threads.

It's funny to remember that even after Worlds in 2013, Canada was far and away the favorites to win in Sochi (pairs: 3 & 4, men: 1 & 5, ice dance: 2 & 5, ladies: 8 [could've been higher but Osmond had meltdown in the free after placing 4th in the SP]) as opposed to Russia (pairs 1 & 6, men: 17, ice dance: 3 & 9, ladies: 9 & 10).

Then the next season comes along and Lipnitskaya emerges from an Anne Geddes cabbage leaf at Finlandia, Ilinykh & Katsalapov knock down the biggest threat for an Olympic Russian ice dance bronze at Bompard, Stolbova & Klimov beat Volosozhar & Trankov in the free at Europeans, Plushenko awakens from his sarcophagus hibernation in Sochi and surprise, Russia wins team gold.

So... meh. Nothing is certain until the event arrives.

^^

I agree... but this time, I don't think Russia will get skaters out of cabbage leaves and sarcophagus

#AUSTRALIAFORTHETEAMEVENT

That is all.

gravy said:

It's always too early for these types of threads.

Click to expand...

Nothing is too early in the skating fandom.

It's really way too early but as for now I predict 1. Canada 2. Russia 3. USA

gravy said:

It's always too early for these types of threads.

Then the next season comes along and Lipnitskaya emerges from an Anne Geddes cabbage leaf at Finlandia, Ilinykh & Katsalapov knock down the biggest threat for an Olympic Russian ice dance bronze at Bompard, Stolbova & Klimov beat Volosozhar & Trankov in the free at Europeans, Plushenko awakens from his sarcophagus hibernation in Sochi and surprise, Russia wins team gold.

So... meh. Nothing is certain until the event arrives.

Click to expand...

You have a point that things may change but so far, I don't think Russia could shake up things this time. IMO, I feel like we know who will be skating in most of the their events other than the ladies who are likely to be the biggest point contributers no matter what. Volosozhar/Trankov are out because she's pregnant. Bobrova/Soloviev could be 4th place at best. If they decide to use Step/Bukin, they will only further pull their total score down. They don't have Plushy to resurrect unless they do some voodoo magic. Kolyada needs to wish for the stars to align to at least get 4th or 5th.

Can anyone remind me of how countries qualify for the team event? Does it depend on Worlds 2017 placements, just like the regular disciplines, or are there other factors in play? I'm very interested in who will qualify outside of the obvious big countries.

gravy said:

It's always too early for these types of threads.

It's funny to remember that even after Worlds in 2013, Canada was far and away the favorites to win in Sochi (pairs: 3 & 4, men: 1 & 5, ice dance: 2 & 5, ladies: 8 [could've been higher but Osmond had meltdown in the free after placing 4th in the SP]) as opposed to Russia (pairs 1 & 6, men: 17, ice dance: 3 & 9, ladies: 9 & 10).

Then the next season comes along and Lipnitskaya emerges from an Anne Geddes cabbage leaf at Finlandia, Ilinykh & Katsalapov knock down the biggest threat for an Olympic Russian ice dance bronze at Bompard, Stolbova & Klimov beat Volosozhar & Trankov in the free at Europeans, Plushenko awakens from his sarcophagus hibernation in Sochi and surprise, Russia wins team gold.

So... meh. Nothing is certain until the event arrives.

Click to expand...

Can we get real Gravy, Kaetlyn Osmond skated a flawless short program in the Team event, complete with her trademark huge jumps and her 3/3, and was held to a 62 and change, or 5th place, putting Canada in a catch up position behind Russia, Italy, Japan, and the US. As a result of the placement being 10 points behind Yulia after the SP, it affected Canada chances for OG.

While her LP was not flawless, she placed 3rd in TCS behind Yulia and Gracie, and again with lower than usual PCS ('cause we all know she lacks performance & skating ability...ahem!) it left her in 6th place. Overall, her debut and contribution in the Team event, can hardly be called a meltdown, as the table had been set for Russian Gold.

I suppose you would call Kevin Reynolds performance versus Plushy another meltdown? Similar to KO, I would call it a Helddown.

I agree with you that nothing is certain, particularly when you skate on home ice.

I think y'all are underestimating Russia.

B/S have gotten a push this season. They are now viewed as ahead of C/B and possibly W/P...would Canada and US use V/M and S/S for both programs to make sure they stay ahead of Russia in dance?

Mikhail is inconsistent, but it'd be smart if he put all his effort into the team event rather than the individual. He'll have a chance to beat the guys who are saving their strength for the individual (presumably Yuzu, Patrick, Boyang, Nathan, etc.) and his chance at an Olympic medal in 2018 is slim.

Stolbova/Klimov skated their best ever in Sochi. Maybe the Olympic pressure helps? Plus, Tarasova/Morozov have gotten a huge push this season as well. Who knows, maybe next season they'll even have interesting programs to back up those scores?

And Russia is all but guaranteed top placements in ladies.

I think we're in a situation pretty darn similar to how it looked the year before Sochi. It looked like it was Canada's to lose, but Russia was at the top of their game and earned it (some inflated scores helped, but they would've won regardless). That's the battle for gold in 2018 as well, and US can have the bronze.

I think it will be close between Russia and Canada with US a bit behind and Japan/China fighting for the pewter medal.

Ladies. I assume Russia has 20 points. Canada is about Osmond now. If she is doing both short and long will she have enough energy for the individual event? She has podium chances - will Canada put everything for the team gold at the expense of her ambition? If, yes I still think she will be behind Japan in both segments. Then the question is if US is going to have strong performances. Well, my expected result for Canada with Osmond 15 points (third SP and fourth FP). The range is 14-16. If Canada spares Osmond then it won't be more than 14. And if Caro competes I think she will beat all the Canadians in SP including Osmond but will skip FP. Then the ladies range for Canada is 13-16

Men. Betting on Patrick's top shape is risky. But let's assume he skates lights out and wins SP. The question is if the veteran is going to do team LP as well or will be spared for individual event? In the former case I still don't see him beating Japan, China, and USA. Hence, Canada will have 16 points. In he latter case Canada will be behind Russia as well with 15 points. Russia will be 5th in SP and 5th or 4th in LP. Hence, 12 or 13 points. After singles we have Russia with 32-33 and Canada with 28-32.

Dance. I assume Canada will win with 20 points. Russia will lose to both Canada and USA but B/S have good chances against C/L. Assume they win some - they lose some, hence expected 14-16 points. So, before pairs we have Russia with 46-49 and Canada with 48-52

Hence, the question is whether D/R who will be way into their thirties have the grit for both team and individual events. And how they are going to fare vs. S/K and young and gaining momentum T/M. If D/R are spared or if they are not in the best shape Russia is likely to win pairs with Chinese passing Canadians as well. Hence, Russia will have 66-69 and Canada 64-68 which means that Russia is more likely to win overall. Of course, if D/R win SP and LP Canada is getting the team event.

Tbh I'm more interested in who can play spoiler--I'm not sure if anyone can break into the top three, but I think France has a good chance for 4th. They will presumably have Laurine Lecavelier, who, if she continues to improve the way she has, will be competitive enough to boost their points, and they also have a much improved (since Sochi) James/Cipres, and of course P/C. Italy is also moderately strong in 2/4 disciplines, and quite strong in the other two--Kostner, C/L, Righini, and one (or both) of D/G or M/H would make a very strong team.

Are they doing the team event after individuals?

charmblade said:

Can anyone remind me of how countries qualify for the team event? Does it depend on Worlds 2017 placements, just like the regular disciplines, or are there other factors in play? I'm very interested in who will qualify outside of the obvious big countries.

Click to expand...

2017 results from the Grand Prix Series also are in play.
And possibly results from other comps, if a country has no entry in a discipline at 2017 Worlds. Also if a country has no entry in a discipline in the 2017 Grand Prix Series.

The full explanation is in this ISU document (the current version is dated May 17, 2016):

---

rollerblade said:

Are they doing the team event after individuals?

Click to expand...

The 2018 Olympics schedule has not yet been announced.

FWIW, on *draft* versions of the schedule, the team event has come before the individual events.
But again, the official schedule has not yet been announced.

Russia has more chances for gold if the team event is before individual. Outside Medvedeva there are only some gold chances in pairs. The value of team gold in Russia is similar to individual. Maybe Adelina's case was different as she was the first ever. Anyway, team members get the same medals, money, and cars as individual OGM winners. They also receive the highest rank among Russian athletes: the honored master of sports. In fact Yulia is the one and Evgeniya is not yet - she is just international master of sports same as Liza. One small spoiler for ego is that they are announced not as Olympic champions but as Olympic champions in team event (it was in Chelyabinsk). But this is bearable, I guess. As Medvedeva looks invincible and capable of winning all 4 programs, I guess, the team event will be of the utmost importance to the Fed.