I think the same thing applies to year over year analysis. Say for the sake of argument that there are 200,000 skaters in the US and 2,000 of them do triples. That doesn't mean that a beginning skater has a one in 100 chance of learning to do triples. There is significant turnover in the 200,000 skaters year over year, but those who do triples would tend to continue for many years.
What percentage of skaters do triple jumps?
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I think the same thing applies to year over year analysis. Say for the sake of argument that there are 200,000 skaters in the US and 2,000 of them do triples. That doesn't mean that a beginning skater has a one in 100 chance of learning to do triples. There is significant turnover in the 200,000 skaters year over year, but those who do triples would tend to continue for many years.
I looked at the South Atlantic Regionals to see how many competitors can actually do the big jumps. If a skater got < I still counted them in my total, but if a skater got a <<, then then I did not count them.
I only looked at those in the final round freeskaten not short program. Here is what I got for triples: 4 intermediate men, 8 intermediate ladies, 6 novice men, 10 novice ladies, 1 junior man (only 2 skated), 9 junior ladies, and 11 senior ladies. [note - no senior men skated] That makes 50 total. If we assume that all Regions have about the same numbers and there are 9 Region in the US, then just under 500 competitive skaters can do them.
Then I went back and looked at double axels using the same criteria. Here is what I got: 2 juvenile boys, 6 juvenile girls, 6 intermediate men, 11 intermediate ladies, 7 novice men (100% did), 12 novice ladies, 2 junior man (100%), 15 junior ladies, and 9 senior ladies. That makes 100 total in South Atlantics or just under 1000 competitive skaters Nationwide. No idea why more senior ladies did triples over double axels - hmmm ...
I did a bit more research and noticed that USFS says they are just under 150,000 LTS students. So 500/150,000 = 0.3% can do triples and 0.6% can do double axels.
Those numbers are a lot lower than I thought.
I only looked at those in the final round freeskaten not short program. Here is what I got for triples: 4 intermediate men, 8 intermediate ladies, 6 novice men, 10 novice ladies, 1 junior man (only 2 skated), 9 junior ladies, and 11 senior ladies. [note - no senior men skated] That makes 50 total. If we assume that all Regions have about the same numbers and there are 9 Region in the US, then just under 500 competitive skaters can do them.
Then I went back and looked at double axels using the same criteria. Here is what I got: 2 juvenile boys, 6 juvenile girls, 6 intermediate men, 11 intermediate ladies, 7 novice men (100% did), 12 novice ladies, 2 junior man (100%), 15 junior ladies, and 9 senior ladies. That makes 100 total in South Atlantics or just under 1000 competitive skaters Nationwide. No idea why more senior ladies did triples over double axels - hmmm ...
I did a bit more research and noticed that USFS says they are just under 150,000 LTS students. So 500/150,000 = 0.3% can do triples and 0.6% can do double axels.
Those numbers are a lot lower than I thought.
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This makes me feel better every time I read it lol. You're totally right that the ones doing the doubles are out there every single day, whereas the lower level girls only come 3 times a week or so. I know this because I'm out there almost every single day because I want to advance as fast as possible. So yeah, when I'm surrounded by younger girls doing doubles all the time, my singles feel really lame haha. Even though I know I'm doing exceptionally well for someone who's only skated for one year and they've all been skating for at least 5-10 years since they were kids. I always want to wear a tshirt around that proclaims "I'm NOT LAME! I just haven't had enough time on the ice yet! WATCH ME IMPROVE!"
I think some coaches and definitely a lot of kids just assume "oh she's older and probably talent-less, that's why she's still working on only singles."
For example, in one of my group lessons, the coach was having us do multiple flips in front of each other to show how consistent each of us was. And then she asked how long we'd been doing flips because she was trying to make a point about how more years on the ice equals better consistency. The little kids said they'd been doing flips for several months to a full year and still weren't very consistent in landing every single jump. Then I said I'd only been landing my flips since two weeks ago. And she's like "WTH? You are extraordinarily consistent if that's all the time you've had." I immediately wished I had my imaginary "I'M NOT LAME!" tshirt on lol.
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- Jan 20, 2017
Another interesting thing, I was looking over the credentials of the coaches I'm aware of at our rink and most of them have Senior-level MIF tests passed, but most of them only have Novice Freestyle passed. A couple have Junior Freestyle passed. So I'm not aware any of them are Senior level in Freestyle, but they might be able to do a double axel or triple and they just never did it clean enough to pass the tests, who knows....
Can coaches teach above their level? Like if a coach has never landed a double axel in their life, are they still able to successfully coach a student through it? I feel like they would be able to because it's hard to imagine every coach who's taught triples or quads had to land it themselves first. They just knew what to look for and where able to talk someone more physically talented into how to do it.
Can coaches teach above their level? Like if a coach has never landed a double axel in their life, are they still able to successfully coach a student through it? I feel like they would be able to because it's hard to imagine every coach who's taught triples or quads had to land it themselves first. They just knew what to look for and where able to talk someone more physically talented into how to do it.
Double axels and triple jumps are not required on any US freeskating test.
They are required in senior short programs (and double axel in junior SPs).
Plenty of skaters pass their senior tests without being able to do those jumps -- some of them compete as seniors even though they can't skate legal short programs, others don't.
Skaters who competed at intermediate, novice, or junior level might have had double axel one or more triples while competing, but most did not. Some might have had it when still small and then lost the ability after growth spurts and/or injuries.
Once they're done competing, they might "test out" by trying to pass all the tests up to senior, or they might walk away entirely. (And maybe later come back as coaches.)
So knowing what tests a coach passed tells you very little about what jumps they could do at their peak.
Yes. Coaches' ratings by the Professional Skaters' Association are based both on their own accomplishments and the accomplishments of their students.
Coaches who can teach good jump technique probably had good technique on their own double jumps when they were skaters, but especially the older coaches who skated before triples were common may never have landed any triples themselves (let alone triple axels or quads especially for female coaches). They develop good understanding of the jump mechanics through teaching jumps and studying the physics of the technique, apprenticing with more experienced coaches when they're starting out, etc.
But someone had to be the first to land each of the jumps, so he would have done it with a coach who had never landed that jump him- or herself.
I did something similar as Concorde, but looking at the 2017 Southwestern Regionals. I looked at the highest-level jump each competitor did (top block), as well as whether or not they did double axels (bottom row). I only looked at the free skate, and only the final round (i.e. not the qualifying rounds for Juv Girls for example). I counted "<" and "e" but did not count "<<".
There were no senior men nor junior men at the 2017 SW Regionals, I assume there wasn't enough and they automatically went to Sectionals.
So a total of 24 people did triples, while 50 did double axels. However, this does not include:
* people who automatically moved on (I'm thinking the Senior and Junior Men) or otherwise had byes
* people who attempted those jumps but they were downgraded (received "<<"), although presumably if they're putting them in a competition they can do them reasonably well in practice
* people who did these jumps but did not qualify (for example, people who did double axels during the Juv Ladies qualifying rounds but didn't make it to the final round)
* people who can do these jumps but for some reason or another choose not to compete
So these numbers are more of a floor on the number of people who can do these jumps -- the actual number is somewhat higher.
As a WAG, I sort of estimate that about 1% of the population can skate, and about 1% of those who skate can do axels. I have no data to back this up, this is just a guess with nice round numbers. Note that I'm using "can skate" very liberally here, since the U.S. population is around 320 million but USFSA membership is around 180,000, so less than 0.06% of the population has USFSA membership -- so obviously I'm including as "skater" not just people with USFSA membership but also people with ISI or just doing it recreationally.
For some anecdotal data (heh), at our local club, out of around 150-200 skaters, I'd estimate probably 30-50 can do an axel. 3 of them can do double axels (with various levels of consistency), and at least 1 more is working on it (has landed it before, but not at all consistent). 1 of them can do triples, and 2 others are working on triples, having landed them before but not at all consistent. One of the coaches used to do triple lutzes but she no longer competes so I assume she can't do them now. It's not a competitive rink though, more of a recreational one.
For the coaches, at our rink around 1/3 to 1/2 of the coaches have passed their Senior MIF test, and around 2/3 have passed their Novice MIF test. There is only one coach I'm aware of who has passed her Senior Free Skate, though at least 5 have passed their Junior Free Skate tests and there are a few past coaches who passed their Senior Free Skate tests. This is out of a bit more than 20 coaches (many of the coaches are college students, not doing it as a profession, since this is a college town). There are also a number of coaches who pre-date the modern tests or came over from ISI.
In terms of coaching above their level, yes, coaches can do that. My understanding, but I may be wrong on this, is that a coach's level is based on the highest level they've attained themselves, or the highest level attained by at least one of their students, whichever is higher. I'm assuming this means (but I may be wrong on this) that for example, if a coach had a student pass the Intermediate Free Skate test, then they themselves won't have to take that test but can take the Novice Free Skate test. I'm not sure if that's how it actually works though. At any rate, the PSA ranking system's criteria only includes the coach's students achievements in the ranking, not that of the coach's own, so the coach can definitely coach students beyond what they themselves achieved, as long as they have the knowledge and can pass it on to their students.
Code:
Jump SL JL NM NL IM IL JM JL
3Lz 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
3F 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 0
3Lo 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
3S 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 0
3T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2A 0 6 1 6 1 5 0 9
2Lz 3 1 0 9 2 9 4 7
2F 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0
#2A 5 9 5 12 3 7 0 9There were no senior men nor junior men at the 2017 SW Regionals, I assume there wasn't enough and they automatically went to Sectionals.
So a total of 24 people did triples, while 50 did double axels. However, this does not include:
* people who automatically moved on (I'm thinking the Senior and Junior Men) or otherwise had byes
* people who attempted those jumps but they were downgraded (received "<<"), although presumably if they're putting them in a competition they can do them reasonably well in practice
* people who did these jumps but did not qualify (for example, people who did double axels during the Juv Ladies qualifying rounds but didn't make it to the final round)
* people who can do these jumps but for some reason or another choose not to compete
So these numbers are more of a floor on the number of people who can do these jumps -- the actual number is somewhat higher.
As a WAG, I sort of estimate that about 1% of the population can skate, and about 1% of those who skate can do axels. I have no data to back this up, this is just a guess with nice round numbers. Note that I'm using "can skate" very liberally here, since the U.S. population is around 320 million but USFSA membership is around 180,000, so less than 0.06% of the population has USFSA membership -- so obviously I'm including as "skater" not just people with USFSA membership but also people with ISI or just doing it recreationally.
For some anecdotal data (heh), at our local club, out of around 150-200 skaters, I'd estimate probably 30-50 can do an axel. 3 of them can do double axels (with various levels of consistency), and at least 1 more is working on it (has landed it before, but not at all consistent). 1 of them can do triples, and 2 others are working on triples, having landed them before but not at all consistent. One of the coaches used to do triple lutzes but she no longer competes so I assume she can't do them now. It's not a competitive rink though, more of a recreational one.
For the coaches, at our rink around 1/3 to 1/2 of the coaches have passed their Senior MIF test, and around 2/3 have passed their Novice MIF test. There is only one coach I'm aware of who has passed her Senior Free Skate, though at least 5 have passed their Junior Free Skate tests and there are a few past coaches who passed their Senior Free Skate tests. This is out of a bit more than 20 coaches (many of the coaches are college students, not doing it as a profession, since this is a college town). There are also a number of coaches who pre-date the modern tests or came over from ISI.
In terms of coaching above their level, yes, coaches can do that. My understanding, but I may be wrong on this, is that a coach's level is based on the highest level they've attained themselves, or the highest level attained by at least one of their students, whichever is higher. I'm assuming this means (but I may be wrong on this) that for example, if a coach had a student pass the Intermediate Free Skate test, then they themselves won't have to take that test but can take the Novice Free Skate test. I'm not sure if that's how it actually works though. At any rate, the PSA ranking system's criteria only includes the coach's students achievements in the ranking, not that of the coach's own, so the coach can definitely coach students beyond what they themselves achieved, as long as they have the knowledge and can pass it on to their students.
Thanks for compiling the stats, Vanshilar.
Not necessarily true in the senior short program, since triples are required. Under the current rules a clean double gets 0 points whereas a downgraded triple at least gets some points. (Which might get canceled out by a fall deduction if applicable)
Same for single axels in the junior and senior SP.
But you looked only at freeskates anyway.
No, the coach ratings -- and the rankings you refer to -- apply only to their coaching credentials and are issued by the PSA, not by USFS. The levels of the PSA ratings are not the same 8 test levels as the USFS moves/freestyle skating tests (or other disciplines).
https://www.skatepsa.com/psa/Ratings.html
Levels of Free Skating instructor ratings are Registered, Certified, Senior, and Master.
To be rated as a "Certified" instructor by the PSA, one requirement is that they must have completed the USFS intermediate free skate test or the ISI freestyle 9 test or other ISU member organization equivalent or have coached a student through one of those levels. If they haven't either passed one of those tests or had a student pass one of those tests, they're not eligible for the Certified rating.
If they are, the coach would also need to meet several coaching education and coaching exam requirements. If they meet all those requirements and are awarded that rating by the PSA, then they're entitled to advertise themselves as a Certified free skating instructor, which tells prospective students/parents that they have achieved a higher coaching level than a "Registered" or unrated instructor. It says nothing about their own skating accomplishments.
If they want to take a USFS moves or freeskating test, they would need to have passed the prerequisite tests themselves.
Here's how I understand it:
Suppose a skater reached juvenile singles level as a kid, took some time off or focused on ice dance or synchro skating as a teenager, and then starts coaching. Not eligible to apply for the Certified rating unless she passes one of the required tests or one of her students does.
So say she does take one or more students through the intermediate freestyle test and coaches at that level for the minimum amount of time. Now she can take the appropriate courses and exams and apply for the Certified rating.
But now suppose she decides she wants to compete in adult competitions. And since she can still do 2F and 2Lz -- maybe they were always her best double jumps -- which are only allowed at the masters junior/senior level for adults, she needs to pass at least the novice freestyle test to compete at a level that allows her best jumps. She would need to pass the intermediate freestyle (and intermediate moves before that if she hadn't already passed it) and novice moves (if she didn't have it already) before she would be allowed to take the novice freeskating test, regardless of the fact that she has successfully coached students through those tests.
Not necessarily true in the senior short program, since triples are required. Under the current rules a clean double gets 0 points whereas a downgraded triple at least gets some points. (Which might get canceled out by a fall deduction if applicable)
Same for single axels in the junior and senior SP.
But you looked only at freeskates anyway.
No, the coach ratings -- and the rankings you refer to -- apply only to their coaching credentials and are issued by the PSA, not by USFS. The levels of the PSA ratings are not the same 8 test levels as the USFS moves/freestyle skating tests (or other disciplines).
https://www.skatepsa.com/psa/Ratings.html
Levels of Free Skating instructor ratings are Registered, Certified, Senior, and Master.
To be rated as a "Certified" instructor by the PSA, one requirement is that they must have completed the USFS intermediate free skate test or the ISI freestyle 9 test or other ISU member organization equivalent or have coached a student through one of those levels. If they haven't either passed one of those tests or had a student pass one of those tests, they're not eligible for the Certified rating.
If they are, the coach would also need to meet several coaching education and coaching exam requirements. If they meet all those requirements and are awarded that rating by the PSA, then they're entitled to advertise themselves as a Certified free skating instructor, which tells prospective students/parents that they have achieved a higher coaching level than a "Registered" or unrated instructor. It says nothing about their own skating accomplishments.
If they want to take a USFS moves or freeskating test, they would need to have passed the prerequisite tests themselves.
Here's how I understand it:
Suppose a skater reached juvenile singles level as a kid, took some time off or focused on ice dance or synchro skating as a teenager, and then starts coaching. Not eligible to apply for the Certified rating unless she passes one of the required tests or one of her students does.
So say she does take one or more students through the intermediate freestyle test and coaches at that level for the minimum amount of time. Now she can take the appropriate courses and exams and apply for the Certified rating.
But now suppose she decides she wants to compete in adult competitions. And since she can still do 2F and 2Lz -- maybe they were always her best double jumps -- which are only allowed at the masters junior/senior level for adults, she needs to pass at least the novice freestyle test to compete at a level that allows her best jumps. She would need to pass the intermediate freestyle (and intermediate moves before that if she hadn't already passed it) and novice moves (if she didn't have it already) before she would be allowed to take the novice freeskating test, regardless of the fact that she has successfully coached students through those tests.
Thanks for filling in the details. Yeah, my understanding was from talking to a coach, but she was just talking about what level a coach was considered as, she didn't specify which particular testing/certification used to measure that level (USFSA tests, PSA ratings, or PSA rankings), that was just my own extrapolation. So now looking at it, I'm guessing she meant the PSA ratings but not the others.
A bit off-topic, but looking in more detail at the different structures now, the PSA rankings have as requirement for the lower levels "Must have been the primary coach for a minimum of one year", while for the higher levels it says "Must have coached the skater for a minimum of one year" and "Must have been the skater’s primary coach" as separate requirements. Does this mean that for the lower rankings they just need to have coached a skater to those levels but not necessarily have been that skater's primary coach, while they've been primary coaches to other skaters, or at the lower rankings do they also need to have been the primary coach of the skater being used to satisfy the coaching requirement? If it's the latter, then why is it written one way for the lower levels but another way for the higher levels?
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Re: the kids: you're an adult - you aren't really in their world, they aren't comparing themselves to you, or vice versa. Believe me, they aren't looking at you and thinking "lame". But they are looking at you and seeing "old". :lol:
As for the coaches, most of them understand enough about beginner skaters, and adult skaters, to know where you're at. Don't be concerned about this stuff.
Yes. Example: Morozov. Example: Mishin. Example: Carroll. And many others.
Well, it is kind of tricky to say a coach can teach above their level. Mishin may not have done 3axel, but he has advanced degrees in sport science not to mention coaching credentials and many years experience. Carroll studied under a master. Morozov similar, and all had experience either training or competing in an elite environment which had to help them mentally train their future pupils to be able to execute what previously only existed in theory...
I just think be careful BC it's not usual that coach Suzy so-and-so meets talented student who happens to be the first skater she gets to hit a triple in competition consistently. Coach Suzy can't pull a technique or training plan out of thin air, and will make mistakes with her first successful students, especially if Coach Suzy lacks personal experience and has no Mentor.
I just think be careful BC it's not usual that coach Suzy so-and-so meets talented student who happens to be the first skater she gets to hit a triple in competition consistently. Coach Suzy can't pull a technique or training plan out of thin air, and will make mistakes with her first successful students, especially if Coach Suzy lacks personal experience and has no Mentor.
Example: Orser (coaches quads) .
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Well, Orser was one of the first men to ever do triple axels in competition consistently, back in the day when people didn't do them often. Given that I don't think any elite coaches have ever done any quads, he is probably the one that comes closest to actually having done the high level jumps that he teaches.
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- Feb 9, 2017
Here is a video of Orser doing two quad toe loops in practice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2IaPXg6DaE
I think its safe to say he is more than qualified to teach any jump.
I think its safe to say he is more than qualified to teach any jump.
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- Jan 20, 2017
They don't even look human anymore when doing quads. It always looks like someone hit "fast forward" or digitally manipulated the video.
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- Oct 31, 2006
- Country
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OMG - I know the post is for Orser but I think Sabovcik's quads are the most beautiful I've ever seen!
I've never seen either of them execute one until your video link.
Actually made an account to post here,
While I love the concept of attacking this question by the numbers actual statistics.
In my professional opinion, every skater is able to acquire a double axel and work on triples. Talent plays no part in acquiring these skills,
Just basics of technique and foundation/progression, then work ethic.
The struggle in North america is the over saturation of "bad" coaches, or that is, more specifically Coaches stuck in their old ways.
You see it all the time coaches advertising that they've been "coaching", for 20 plus years, and their skaters are still only at club/ intermediate levels.
Most dont go out to learn more than they had as skaters, because... they "know from doing" instead of learning from others.
Backwards coaching is an epidemic and it keeps skaters from learning the art/sport properly.
The stats are also whether these skaters have landed 2 axel//triples in comp or just done them before? people are looking at the stats from competitions,
which is fine, but most skaters aren't good at competing and can usually land jumps way higher in difficulty from whats in their programs.
I'm on a rant now, but in ending,
Every skater is capable of landing doubles (( including axel )), its not a large stretch to add 1/2 a rev onto a double jump.
Just takes practice and proper instruction.
While I love the concept of attacking this question by the numbers actual statistics.
In my professional opinion, every skater is able to acquire a double axel and work on triples. Talent plays no part in acquiring these skills,
Just basics of technique and foundation/progression, then work ethic.
The struggle in North america is the over saturation of "bad" coaches, or that is, more specifically Coaches stuck in their old ways.
You see it all the time coaches advertising that they've been "coaching", for 20 plus years, and their skaters are still only at club/ intermediate levels.
Most dont go out to learn more than they had as skaters, because... they "know from doing" instead of learning from others.
Backwards coaching is an epidemic and it keeps skaters from learning the art/sport properly.
The stats are also whether these skaters have landed 2 axel//triples in comp or just done them before? people are looking at the stats from competitions,
which is fine, but most skaters aren't good at competing and can usually land jumps way higher in difficulty from whats in their programs.
I'm on a rant now, but in ending,
Every skater is capable of landing doubles (( including axel )), its not a large stretch to add 1/2 a rev onto a double jump.
Just takes practice and proper instruction.
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I don't think it's true that every skater is capable of landing double axels and triple jumps.
It may be that every skater who starts before age 10, and is coordinated enough to get to single axel within in a year or so, would be physically capable of reaching that level if they put in 5-10 years of training at least 10-20 hours per week on ice with hours of weekly high-quality coaching, plus off-ice conditioning.
Most skaters can't afford the time or money to train that way even if the practice ice and coaching are available right in their backyards, even less if they would have to travel daily or relocate to gain access.
For skaters who start at older ages, the percentage who still have the potential would be lower, as would the likelihood that they will be able to train at the necessary level for the necessary number of years.
Good coaching is one necessary part of the equation, but it's not available to everyone and it's not sufficient for skaters who don't have the resources to make use of it or who start with below-average physical potential.
It may be that every skater who starts before age 10, and is coordinated enough to get to single axel within in a year or so, would be physically capable of reaching that level if they put in 5-10 years of training at least 10-20 hours per week on ice with hours of weekly high-quality coaching, plus off-ice conditioning.
Most skaters can't afford the time or money to train that way even if the practice ice and coaching are available right in their backyards, even less if they would have to travel daily or relocate to gain access.
For skaters who start at older ages, the percentage who still have the potential would be lower, as would the likelihood that they will be able to train at the necessary level for the necessary number of years.
Good coaching is one necessary part of the equation, but it's not available to everyone and it's not sufficient for skaters who don't have the resources to make use of it or who start with below-average physical potential.
Thank you @Ghost for posting. I get what you mean, not everyone can be a National Champ, but technique and proper training can take people much farther than they think... It's not impossible, just takes knowledge (education).
And I agree, the struggle is real (lol) as far as quality coaching education in N.A., at least in U.S. It's a free for all capitalist-type venture, great for entrepreneurs but unfortunately not a good format for producing a lot of good skaters. We kinda have to wait to get lucky with our top skaters, and pray they find their way to a good training center and coach. It's sad to see a skater's talent/ability capped by a Pro who doesn't have the skill to develop it.
I am glad you threw in the ol' "work ethic" piece too. For those skaters who do have access to quality coaches/time/money...desire and willingness to suffer through the athletic process...(pain, injury, setbacks, politics, plateauing, risk, etc.) is just....scarce...difficult....idk
I also agree with @gkelly not everyone has ability for triples and DA. And most do not have access to the Pros and training facilities that offer such high level training.Nor the time and $$$ to put in. Elitist sport.
And I agree, the struggle is real (lol) as far as quality coaching education in N.A., at least in U.S. It's a free for all capitalist-type venture, great for entrepreneurs but unfortunately not a good format for producing a lot of good skaters. We kinda have to wait to get lucky with our top skaters, and pray they find their way to a good training center and coach. It's sad to see a skater's talent/ability capped by a Pro who doesn't have the skill to develop it.
I am glad you threw in the ol' "work ethic" piece too. For those skaters who do have access to quality coaches/time/money...desire and willingness to suffer through the athletic process...(pain, injury, setbacks, politics, plateauing, risk, etc.) is just....scarce...difficult....idk
I also agree with @gkelly not everyone has ability for triples and DA. And most do not have access to the Pros and training facilities that offer such high level training.Nor the time and $$$ to put in. Elitist sport.
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