Campbell's Predictions and Comments

**Joesitz** · 08-28-2004, 05:31 PM

2004 CAMPBELL’S - October 1, 2004 - St. Paul, Minnesota (TV date: 10/10)

Some people call this a ‘Dress Rehearsal’ for the upcoming season;: new costume; new music; new program. Others say it is just another Cheesefest. But there’s money to be won in this, and I think the contestants want to skate to win.

How about you giving your predictions for the podium. You can select the order of finish or just give a random order. However you choose, please give a few comments on why. (Remember, the List is tentative).

LADIES

Miki Ando (Japan)
Shizuka Arakawa (Japan)
Sasha Cohen (USA)
Amber Corwin (USA)
Jenny Kirk (USA)
Carolina Kostner (Italy)
Michelle Kwan (USA)
Irina Slutskaya (Russia)

MEN

Tim Goebel (USA)
Takeshi Honda (Japan)
Brian Joubert (France)
Evan Lysacek (USA)
Evgeny Plushenko (Russia)
Emanuel Sandhu (Canada)
Johnny Weir (USA)

Joe

Remember pick 3 from each group in any order you choose. That’s the podium.

**hockeyfan228** · 08-30-2004, 07:29 PM

Ladies:

Cohen
Arakawa
Kwan

Kostner has stopped training due to a back injury. I don't know if she'll be back in time for Campbell's, but I think the lost training will affect her sharpness. Even if Slutskaya is sharp, I don't imagine she'll throw her hardest stuff in an early season cheesefest. I think Cohen and Arakawa will be sharp and well-prepared. Kwan I think will still be a work in progress, working to peak later, but her second mark will give her the bronze over Ando, regardless of how many 3/3's Ando lands, or even if she lands a 4S. But I do predict a standing ovation for Kwan, anyway.

Men:

Plushenko
Joubert
Weir

I think Plushenko will win unless he doesn't show up. I expect Joubert and Weir to come out running after last year's success, particularly if Weir can land the quad. (Better to debut the quad at Campbell's than at a Grand Prix event.)

**R.D.** · 08-30-2004, 10:56 PM

Kostner has stopped training due to a back injury. I don't know if she'll be back in time for Campbell's, but I think the lost training will affect her sharpness. Even if Slutskaya is sharp, I don't imagine she'll throw her hardest stuff in an early season cheesefest. I think Cohen and Arakawa will be sharp and well-prepared. Kwan I think will still be a work in progress, working to peak later, but her second mark will give her the bronze over Ando, regardless of how many 3/3's Ando lands, or even if she lands a 4S. But I do predict a standing ovation for Kwan, anyway.

This is not a prediction, but simply a response:

IIRC Cohen made a comment about taking it easy and building up to the "big ones"- in other words, peaking at the big events. I don't know about Arakawa. I think I would question whether they will be "sharp and well-prepared"- maybe testing the "waters", getting comfortable with performing the program. Same for Kwan. Actually, make that everybody

**ladybug** · 09-01-2004, 02:06 AM

Remember how hard TT pushed Sasha to win every competition and had her compete as much as possible. I think she will do the same with Arakawa. She will be ready to win at Campbells. IMO Sasha and Michelle will be taking it easy. Michelle especially will be working with COP in mind and is going to need some time to get it right. This being her first year. I do think all three of them will win. Arakawa first and Sasha and Michelle will place second and third. The lucky one will win Silver.

Plushenko
Joubert
Weir
In that order. Tim will still be getting back in competition mode. He will need a little more time.

**hockeyfan228** · 09-01-2004, 01:31 PM

I don't expect Cohen to be at her peak or to have the most difficult program at Campbell's. But I do expect her to be sharp. The last I heard, Campbell's will use 6.0, and no matter what Arakawa has in her program, with five judges playing with ordinals, I think Cohen will win on the second mark. Along the lines of 5.9/5.8 to 5.7/6.0.

I don't think the results here will have much carryover value to the GP.

**Joesitz** · 09-01-2004, 06:51 PM

I do not think MK will do well. She may not even make the podium. She is not giving her all at these 'other events'. There is ennui involved in the past 2 seasons with spurts of energy. I just don't get it.

The competition, imo will be either Cohen or Arakawa neither of whom grab me on presentation. An error by either one will decide the winner.

Jenny I think had her 15minutes last season. Amber is a dear but she is too outclassed here. Let's see Irina's skate. It's Miki Ando to upset the podium. Miki is the one I am most interested in seeing.
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Among the boys, Plush and Brian are shoo ins with Plush taking the win.
The rest of the field is a Let's see. All have their plusses but it will go to the one without the mistakes. I would guess Weir.

Joe

**RealtorGal** · 09-02-2004, 01:00 AM

Michelle hasn't missed the podium in what? 10 years? If that were to happen, that would be a MAJOR disaster for her. Frankly, I don't see it happening at Campbell's, a U.S.-based & sponsored competition. No way.

**Mathman** · 09-02-2004, 09:12 PM

I expect Michelle to skate beautifully and with passion, throwing down the gauntlet for the other ladies.

Mathman

**Jaana** · 09-04-2004, 09:04 AM

Originally Posted by Joesitz

I do not think MK will do well. She may not even make the podium. She is not giving her all at these 'other events'. There is ennui involved in the past 2 seasons with spurts of energy. I just don't get it.
Joe

I really would expect her to be on the podium in this competition, maybe even winning. This is after all an US cheesefest...

Other on the ladies podium: Cohen and Arakawa.

Is Plushenko participating? In that case the men´s podium:

1. Plushenko
2. Joubert
3. Weir (could be second)

Marjaana

Ilia Kulik photos & photolinks
http://koti.welho.com/mjylha2/index.html
Updated Sept. 2, 2004: http://koti.welho.com/mjylha2/index05c.html

**Ximena** · 09-04-2004, 01:29 PM

I read on the Irina forum that Irina was not planning on doing Campbells and this info came from Irina itself, and as some of you have mentioned, Caro might not show up because of her back problems.
I could doubt of Plushy going to Campbells because he has a show 7 days later and since he is the one organizing it, he might want to be in Russia; also because he mentioned that he was going to make less competition this season, then again he said the same last season and he did it all.
Also, in a radio interview to Joubert he mentioned going back to US two weeks prior Skate America, for training but he didn't mention that he had an event.
Does anyone know when USFSA plans to confirmed the roster?
Anyhow in case all the ones here, do show up, and are healthy enough my prediction are

LADIES
Shizuka Arakawa
Sasha Cohen
Michelle Kwan
(although I would love Irina winning this)

MEN
Evgeny Plushenko
Brian Joubert
Takeshi Honda

**Chrystia Mee** · 09-04-2004, 10:43 PM

It's using the ordinal 6.0 system for Campbells? I didn't know that! Shows what I know. But actually that does change my opinion on my original predictions.

Men:
1. Plushenko will win probably. Unless he makes a really bad showing and ends up skating like he did at Euros las year.
2. Joubert or Weir. I think it will likely be Joubert because of the technical mark. He's much more daring than Wier neither approach is bad but under 6.0 I think Joubert will get the advantage. Weir will probably testing a quad jump and I personally don't think it will be a great one. He might land it but I don't think it will be as clean as his triples. If it were COP I'd say Weir has a stronger chance to make up ground from other aspects. If one makes a mistake than I think whoever made less will take this 2nd place spot, and the other will jump to 4th.
3. Geobel. I see him being able to beat Weir and/or Joubert for third depending how they compete.

Ladies: I'm disappointed to hear Carolina might not be able to come. A lot of people are raving about her and I haven't really seen the appeal but I was hoping seeing her live might help me understand. poor girl.
1. Michelle or Sasha. They will be the favourites going into this competition. Neither will be in top form, but the 6.0 system will deal them an advantage by giving them extremely high presentation marks to make up the difference. It will be who makes a mistake.
2. Shizuka Arakawa will be prepared and will nudge either Michelle/Sasha out of the way for 2nd. Tatiana is interested in coaching the 2006 Olympic Ladies CHampion and is going to push SHizuka with that in mind.
3. Michelle/Cohen/Ando. If Michelle doesn't win, there's no doubt ni my mind she will be third. The odds of her not making top three at a US competition like Campbells are very unlikely. If Kwan wins, it will depend on how clean Cohen skates and/or if Ando's presentation skills have improved. If Cohen makes 1-2 mistakes she'll take 3rd. More than that and Ando is clean, it might just be enough. But I think this is one event that will favor Sasha and Michelle to be top 3.

**Doggygirl** · 09-05-2004, 11:17 AM

This was probably discussed during my summer absence, so my apologies if I'm beating a dead horse. I'm curious why the folks who run Cambell's chose to use the 6.0 system rather than CoP. I thought I read somewhere that CoP was formally adopted?? Even though Cambell's is technically a "Cheesefest" I would think our US skaters would be interested in getting scoring feedback sooner rather than later in the season?

At any rate, I agree with most of the previously stated predictions.

Men:
Plushy
Joubert
Weir (although I'd love to see Weir in 2nd)

Ladies:
Kwan
Cohen
Shiz

Of course anything can happen if there are some really bad skates. I personally hope everyone skates well, so we can see how things are shaping up for the season under *real* comparisons and not just placements based on others making big mistakes. LOL, I'm sure that is a BIG wish this early in the game.

DG

**R.D.** · 09-05-2004, 12:26 PM

I never knew that the 6.0 system was going to be used at Campbell's. I thought they said it was out for good. Now I'm confused

(and for that matter, will they also use it at the winter and spring events?)

**Mathman** · 09-07-2004, 07:59 PM

About 6.0 judging, I would guess that it is too much of a bother to set up the computers, get the tech specialists, etc., in place, especially since there is just one skate. Also official ISU rules require 12 judges or so, in order to have some to throw out. So it would be a lot easier just to grab 5 judges who happen to be available and have them throw out a few 5.7s and 5.8s and call it a day.

Christia Mee, your analysis is very interesting. So you are saying that the judges won't put the two American ladies first and second, because that would look like favoritism. But they will definitely stick Arakawa in second to keep up appearances. But not first, of course, because then the American audience would be disappointed. Maybe so.

A lot of people thought that Arakawa should have won the Winter skatefest last year (it went Kwan, Arakawa, Cohen). Then at Marshall's Sasha skated brilliantly and Michelle made some mistakes and the finish was Cohen, Arakawa, Kwan, even though lots of people thought that Slutskaya should have been third.

An interesting thought.

Mathman