2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

Ogre Mage · Apr 11, 2003

2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

What might they do next year?

Irina: I strongly suspect Irina will be competing again next year. In between taking care of her mother, she probably watched worlds a bit. There are two things she probably noticed -- Elena is turning into a formidable European rival with her consistent 3/3s and that Michelle looked like a titan except for one crack in her armor -- the lack of a 3/3. I bet this motivates Irina to get working on her 3/3s.

Sarah: At this point, Sarah's future is uncertain. But if she decides to rededicate herself, I suspect she will start training on the 3/3s again.

Sasha: She very wisely stopped attempting two 3/3s in her program -- too risky considering her inconsistency. But I wonder if she would be better served with her 3sal/hop/3toe sequence instead of the 3lutz/3toe she currently tries. It is a little easier, but she might be able to land it more often, which would put real pressure on the others. Also, if Sasha cleans up her flutz, I wonder if she will be able to do a 3lutz/3toe anymore. Maybe she could open her LP with 3lutz/2toe and then follow it with 3sal/hop/3toe.

Michelle: What are her plans? If she is really taking things year by year who knows what she will do. But if on some level she is planning for Turino, I wonder if she would be best served by taking the same approach in 2004 she did in 2003 -- competing in a small number of competitions, resting her hip, concentrating on crafting great programs and NOT trying a 3/3. It's a risk, but might be worth resting her body over the long term. She can start attempting 3/3's again in 2005, with the goal of perfecting one for 2006.

Fumie: She said that she planned to try and focus more on her artistic side in the off-season. So I am thinking she won't seriously work on a 3/3? Perhaps wise, given her past injury problems.

DORISPULASKI · Apr 11, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

I'm going to take a strange take on this. In the world there are now several ladies doing 3 axels and 1 doing a 4s successfully. I think at least one of them will very soon be a breakout skater on the 3axel, having it consistent, similar to the Brians, or someone will become consistent on the quad similar to Kurt and even more so Elvis. Once that happens, I think you will find the 3/3 going the way of the dodo again as a big ticket issue, unless it is very rewarded in the new COP. About which I know nothing. If you look at the developments in men's skating, the 3/3 became the refuge of those skaters, like Christopher Bowman and Mark Mitchell, who had unreliable triple axels, for getting them through the SP with minimal markdowns. Once there are at least 1 or 2 ladies of reasonable skills landing a 3axel or 4s at all reliably, that's the point that people stop asking about the 3/3's. By next year we might not yet be at that point but by 2005, I will bet we are. The top ladies better decide now whether they are 3axel or 4toe or 4salchow kinds of girls and start working on them if they don't want to find themselves in 2006 being the female version of Quadless Todd.

dpp

Joesitz · Apr 11, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

Well said, Doris. One or even two of the 3axel ladies will be at the 06Olys, and one will land it.

Sarah will work more on her skating or go to college. She'll decide

Sasha will start focusing and a more beautiful routine will appear with less technical tricks. The extensions are enough.

Michelle will remain mysterious and probably get in one 3/3 by Olys if she intends to go that route.

Irina needs a lot of work based on last year's competitions, but she can do it. She, too, is a mystery

Elena got her feet wet and will be looking for a choreographer

Carolina may be ready for her hometown showdown.

BeBe Liang will breakthrough at Nats 2005 and knock out one of the Americans for a place in the Olys.

Ota from Japan will be the one to watch at the Olys.

Joe

RealtorGal · Apr 11, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

Sarah will retire before 2006. She already won gold and has nothing to prove or gain by another one.

Sasha will (hopefully) improve her consistency and learn to skate from the heart. If she can achieve those aspects of skating, she will be unbeatable.

Michelle will never have a consistent 3/3 of any kind. Judges give her World title after World title without it, so she knows she doesn't need it to win.

I agree about Elena S. getting a good choreographer.

Irina will retire to start a family after next year's Worlds. She will realize that she cannot maintain a marriage by touring alone with SOI or COI (whichever) for months on end year after year.

Vika will fade long before 2006--next year will be her swan song.

Fumie and Shizuka will retire sometime before 2006, opening the door for all the young up and coming Japanese jumping beans. Many of these jumping beans will retire with chronic injuries of the hip, etc. Yoshie Onda will be among them.

Carolina Kostner will (hopefully) develop a personality on the ice to go with her beautiful technique. She will stand on next year's European and World podiums, gaining confidence as the Oly approaches.

The 3/3 will be the benchmark for the ladies--it will be the force that separates the winners from the losers ONLY if there is a tie in the judges' eyes. Presentation a la Michelle will always win out over a jumping bean with none. The triple axel will NOT be a force, although there are ladies who will be able to do it. These ladies will not have the presentation skills to reach the first tier of skating.

Just one Gal's opinion. :lol:

engrsktr · Apr 11, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

I don't think the triple axel or a quad will be the determining factor even by the next olympics....
I do believe that in 3 years the 3/3 will become something very important... I think this because there are many ladies now completing them, even if a little roughly... by the games, if these skaters are still around, the 3/3 will be consistent for them (theoretically).... if a skater shows up without a 3/3 their base mark is already way below where it needs to be... there will be ladies doing 2 3/3 combos in the long program....
without one, it's almost futile even with great artistic skating... especially if the skater completing the 3/3's has comparable artistry.
Just because a skater can do a 3/3 consitently doesn't mean they are simply a jumping bean....remember that.

ciao997 · Apr 11, 2003

3/3's

I agree Sarah will retire before 2006, but I wonder if she will try again to win the national and world titles that have eluded her.

I agree Sasha should concentrate on the 3/3 sequence rather than 3 toe/3 lutz. She's only landed the 3 t/3l once and while it was acceptable and it counted, it still was rotated about 1/4 turn on the ice at the end. She can nail the sequence easily.

Michelle has done a 3 toe/3 toe consistently for years. She's a won few of her world championships with it. She didn't attempt it this year because of hip pain from working the 3 lutz/3 loop last year. She's hired new trainers to help her so she can do the 3/3's and I think this is something Sasha would be wise to do as well. I believe Michelle reported that she was working on a new 3/3 sequence and was seen practicing a 3 flip/3 toe at nationals once or twice, so I think that's where she's heading.

eltamina · Apr 11, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

We are talking about 04 worlds and not 06 Olympics right?

04 worlds: lucky for Kostner, she will be nationals champ again and go to worlds with a few 3/3.

Unlucky Ando who is stuck in the strong ladies field in Japan, she probably won't even be going to senior worlds even with her 4s, and 3z/3l. I am rooting for her to at least win a bronze at Japan nats and have the opportunity to go to worlds

Cupcake will maintain her two 3/3

IS and MK: I don't know

Nelidina will maintain her 3z, and maybe have a 3/3.

AP: can land a 3l/3l, I am rooting for her to be at the USA podium. ( assuming Sarah is skating into Harvard square)

Kirk: assuming she is healthy and has reconstructed her basic skating skills and jump technique by 04, will at least have the 3t/3t. She was working on 5 different 3/3 prior to the injuries. I hope she will make the USA podium. Kirk is mentally tough in competitions, she rises to the occasion.

Ota will have a 3t/3t if she makes the Japan podium.

Onto 06 Olys

The winner will likely be another teenager at the age of 16 - 19, since skating gods love to pick young 16 - 17 year olds to take care of the favorite to win. If skating gods are consistent about this, we will be betting on one of the following:

Bebe
Ando
Kostner
Oto
Mai Asada

Whoever is the favorite going into Olys 06 will not be the gold medalist. (Humor of skating gods)

Congrats Michelle, Elena and Fumie

SHINE2002 · Apr 11, 2003

hehe

Then I hope Mai Asada is going to get her skating skills up to the senior level if she's going to win the OGM in 2006.

Excidra2001 · Apr 11, 2003

Re: hehe

Irina-I think will have atleast a consistent 3sal/3loop if not a 3lutz/3loop. She knows Elena is right behind her and will take the national title again if Slutskaya makes any kind of mistake. 2005 worlds is going to be her last season though, she has stated that in a few articles that she wants to skate worlds on home ice and she will pack her things after that.

Michelle- I really don't see her competing in 2006. She too might leave after 04 if she wins a world title or atleast a medal.
As much as people don't want to mention it, I think Michelle knows she can't compete against the jumping beans and with the ISU rewarding tech more than presention, she will be in trouble.
I believe she should leave this season, because I know she won't have a season like the last.

Cohen- Consistent Consistent Consistent. Believe it or not the word inconsistent won't be associated with Cohen anymore. She is going to work hard on her consistency in the off-season and will really blow a lot of people away.
I see her as a gold medal favorite for 06 Olympics.

Sarah- She won't be there next season.

shadymc · Apr 11, 2003

AP

I forgot that AP can do a 3 loop/3 loop. Her jumping skills are amazing. She needs to work on the other aspects though and I think she will seriously threaten Sasha in the future. Does anyone else think she should make a move to Frank Carroll and Lori Nichol? I don't think she can go any further with the coaches she has. She isn't making the artistic strides she could have over the last few years. I think she has the potential to be as artistic as Sasha or Michelle, but she isn't getting there as fast as she can IMO.

eltamina · Apr 11, 2003

Re: AP

<blockquote>Quote:<hr>Does anyone else think she should make a move to Frank Carroll and Lori Nichol? I don't think she can go any further with the coaches she has. She isn't making the artistic strides she could have over the last few years. I think she has the potential to be as artistic [/quote]

I don't see AP leaving Co Spring, she is attending university there, her family and friends are there. I just hope mama Julie will exercise some sequin restraint.

AP is one of the best spinner among the top USA ladies, her spins are center, fast, secure in edges, with excellent positions. I think she is doing fine with her coach, maybe she can find another choreographer. BTW, I like her jr world winning programs better than Ota's.

Kirk will be attending Oakland Unversity this fall, and she is committed to skating.

Cohen is the most focus one right? She is not attending college this fall?

Congrats Michelle, Elena, and Fumie

elingrace4eva · Apr 11, 2003

Re: AP

I agree with the people saying that as long as Sasha works on her consistancy, she'll be fine. In fact, unbeatable is a perfect word. If she skates a perfect program, no one in the world will ever be able to surpass her, not even Michelle (especially since she isn't doing 3/3s). Just an addition.

I agree on not counting out AP. She has the ability to take us by surprise next year with her improvment.

Kat

eltamina · Apr 11, 2003

Re: AP

<blockquote>Quote:<hr>Does anyone else think she should make a move to Frank Carrol[/quote]

Her webmaster iw quoted in another board that AP has left Tom. Interesting development if it is true. I wish her the best. I still don't see her leaving Co Spring though

Ogre Mage · Apr 12, 2003

Ann Patrice

Ann Patrice can do a 3loop/3loop?! I didn't know that. I'll cross my fingers that she doesn't over train on it like Tara did.

So AP may be leaving her coach, eh? Interesting. Ann Patrice reminds me a bit of Kristi Yamaguchi around '89 and '90 -- solid technically and elegant with good carriage but uninspired choreography and somewhat remote emotionally. The 3salchow was not a good jump for Kristi or AP. Hopefully AP will find a coach that can help her with the artistic side. Learning to skate with feeling takes time and maturity, but hopefully she can at least get better choreography, like Sasha this season, or Kristi in 1991 and 1992.

Jaana · Apr 12, 2003

Sasha Cohen

I sure hope that Sasha will be more consistent next season. It probably is (as skating fans have earlier mentioned) that she is too hard trying to wind.

A triple-triple combination she needs, I would really hope that she will keep the triple lutz-triple toe, and will get it really constistent!

Marjaana

BronzeisGolden02 · Apr 12, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

Who knows? I wouldn't even try to guess who will be in contention in 2006. Anyone guessing Sarah Hughes would be the Olympic Champion in 1999 would most likely have been laughed off of any forum. And as for the 3/3 and 3a, well, they were supposed to be basic staples of skating by now....and they aren't. When the majority of competitions during the season are won with either or both of these elements, then I'll be moved to change my opinion. Next season poses a more interesting qaundry. Everything everyone has posted above makes perfect sense and I'm sure much of that will occur, but I'm becoming leary of making any sort of prediction. 2003-2004 promises to be another great skating season but I'm not convinced that it will be all about the 3/3s. As has happened for the past 6 or so years, the post-season has been a time when the 3/3 hype is at a maximum. It seems the majority believe the next season's champions and contenders will all have the 3/3s and that it will become the must-have. It almost always has turned out not to be so. But, LOL, who knows, 2003-2004 could finally be THE time for the 3/3 to become what the quad has for the men! (okay...one little prediction....I doubt it!) I mean, a men's champion hasn't been crowned without a quad since when? 1996 (Or was it 1998?)? And the ladies' crown has gone to 3/3-less women in 98,99,02 and 03. It seems the judges in the ladies event are looking for quality skating and performances, and, if that happens to include a 3/3 or even two, then that is just a huge bonus. I can't imagine the judges would be as unanimous or forward in the men's event..the quad is king and more than a bonus in that discipline. So, I'm not saying it won't become a standard next season or before the 2006 Olympics, but I just don't see the 3/3 taking on the importance the quad has (particularly next season).

BronzeisGolden02 · Apr 12, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

LOL, but I guess all of my rambling in the last post would be somewhat moot if the proposed judging system is in place next season! The 3/3 would then be in a far better position for becoming a standard.

Joesitz · Apr 12, 2003

Re: 2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

Nice mooting Bronzeis. I wouldn't predict anything so much as a winner either.

From what I have been reading, the Ladies who will be in medal contention must have 3/3s. If someone comes up with a quad/3 that will add just that much icing on the jumpcake.

Once the gifted jumpers are assembled we will then look at the other technical elements: Acrobatic spins; speed of spins; sitzspins that go all the way down; exciting laybacks; spin combos.

If the gifted jumpers pass the Spin Test, we will see if they can skate: Basics, flow, spirals, spread eagles, Bauers, etc., all connected to form some sort of choreography,

Our jumpers/spinners now have the basics together with some fancy footwork.

Next question can all the above be presented with music? Further can the well equipt skaters bring out something from that music which is so special that it grabs the judges/ audience?

Can you name a figure skater who can deliver all of the above?


IMO, he/she doesn't exist.

Joe

CuteGreekGoddess · Apr 12, 2003

Re: Sasha Cohen


I agree with you Jaana
I sure hope Sasha does learn to skate for skating
with no pressure of winning. I wish she would skate
the way she does at exhibitions all the time. I think
that is when she skates the best and that is when
she is unbeatable

a 3/3 would not hurt either

as far as the skate gods, I would love to see Kostner in Turino and in her own home country

kwansong999 · Apr 12, 2003

Re: Sasha Cohen

CGG, "I wish she would skate
the way she does at exhibitions all the time. " Sorry, but I dont think 4 triples will put Sasha at the top of the podium. Oksana, yes. Sasha, no. There are just too many competitors now. One mistake and you are out!

2004: The top ladies and the 3/3

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