Ladies OGM Contenders 2018 | Golden Skate

Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

mrfarmer

Rinkside
Joined
Jun 6, 2017
Let's start theorizing early! (Let's assume these people will be sent to the Olympics by their Feds because most of them will be)


Evgenia Medvedeva: Current World champion. If she goes clean on both programs, I do believe she's going to take home the gold.

Alina Zagitova: Current Junior World's champion. A very real threat. She's fairly musical, but needs to develop her artistry (especially lines) and her rippons are to die for. She skates consistently too.

Kaetlyn Osmond: Current World's silver medalist. Can she get it together and pose a threat?

Marin Honda: Current Junior World's silver medalist. Japan's new ice skating princess. Personally, a fan of her skating. Programs feel like a program, and has the natural ability to create "magic" organically.

Satoko Miyahara: Miss Quiet Artistry. Perpetually underscored, but will she have a breakthrough this season?

Anna Pogorilaya: The Amazon. Pogo herself to OGM?

The Others: Mai Mihara, Polina Tsurskaya, Maria Sotskova, Elena Radionova, Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Gabriel Daleman, Carolina Kostner

Edit: Added Carolina Kostner
 

christinaskater

Medalist
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
1. Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Alina Zagitova
3. Satoko Miyahara
4. Marin Honda
5. Katelyn Osmond
6. Carolina Kostner
7. Gabriel Daleman
8. Ashley Wagner
9. Gracie Gold
10. Anna Pogorilaya
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I'm feeling this will be Evgenia's to lose. My biggest question mark is Satoko because her season was cut short last year. Her long program was one of my ladies' all time favorites and really made me into a big fan! I hope she's fully healed and will be in great form. I also think either or both Canadian ladies have a decent chance of grabbing a medal. Hoping everyone stays healthy all season long :popcorn:
 

andromache

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2014
OGM is weird - emotions matter. So does the crowd. I don't expect Evgenia to be despised by Olympic audiences, though certain fans make her out to be a victim for no reason. But really - the Olympics are weird. I think skate order, cleanliness, and program engagement/excitement (notice I'm not saying quality) could beat what we expect.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Barring disaster Medvedeva will win. Zagitova won't get sufficient PCS and I don't know if she will handle pressure as well in seniors. Osmond doesn't have the stacked difficulty or consistency. Miyahara doesn't have the jump GOE. Honda is way too new on the scene.
 

Seren

Wakabond Forever
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2014
I see it as Medvedeva's to lose. She's so consistent that I don't see her losing, but should she make some bigger errors (again, unlikely, but stranger things have happened) there are a handful of ladies who could make a strong case if they perform well (I'm thinking the likes of Osmond, Pogo, Satoko, maybe Zagitova or Honda).
 

mrfarmer

Rinkside
Joined
Jun 6, 2017
I see it as Medvedeva's to lose. She's so consistent that I don't see her losing, but should she make some bigger errors (again, unlikely, but stranger things have happened) there are a handful of ladies who could make a strong case if they perform well (I'm thinking the likes of Osmond, Pogo, Satoko, maybe Zagitova or Honda).

I agree. Zhenya will have to have a breakdown to not win. But it is the Olympics, and people love underdog stories. The Grand Prix will let us glean what's in store for us. Either way, I hope all the ladies will have their own Olympic moment.
 

Manitou

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
My wish list:
1. Zagitova
2. Medvedeva
3. Radionova

Realistic list:
1. Zagitova
2. Medvedeva
3. Radionova

:)

The thing is I am never right. In an identical thread before Sochi my list was: 1. Lipnitskaya - 2. Gold - 3. Asada - .... - 8. Yuna
 

brens78

Medalist
Joined
Jun 15, 2016
Country
Australia
Meds for sure! The only way I see her losing is by her having an Anna Pogo like melt down in Helsinki or 2 bad falls and someone with a clean skate can swoop in and take top spot. I like surprises but think as others said, it's Meds to lose.
 

zytolda

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 29, 2014
My wish list:
1. Elizaveta T. ( hope dies at last)
2. Alina Z.
3. Keatlyn O.

Realistic list:
1. Evgenia M
2. Keatlyn O.
3. Alina Z
 

mrfarmer

Rinkside
Joined
Jun 6, 2017
My wish list:
1. Elizaveta T. ( hope dies at last)
2. Alina Z.
3. Keatlyn O.

Realistic list:
1. Evgenia M
2. Keatlyn O.
3. Alina Z

Oh. This is interesting. Tursynbaeva, I believe is capable of jumping and landing quads. She needs them to really be "seen" by the judges, if I may say so. But she's still has a long way to go to become OGM. If she does, that would be the best story!
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
To make things more interesting and not a Medvedeva vs the rest of the world, maybe the judges will rise enough Zagitova's PCS. So she will be a serious threat for Medvedeva.
 

xeyra

Constant state
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 10, 2017
Evgenia seems a bit untouchable as the OGM right now but there's a few competitions next season for the other ladies to prove their mettle and try to catch up. As much as everyone loves an underdog story, the underdog needs to not mess up too. :laugh:

We know consistency is key. Katelyn Osmond needs to be consistent next season; she has good jumps, good PCS but in order to be a threat to Evgenia, she needs to land everything consistently, so she has a steady increase in all her scores through the first half of the season. If she just has a lucky day at the Olympics, it might not be enough for her or anyone to catch up to a clean Evgenia anyway. This requires work throughout the season.

A good strategy is also to bring a better technical arsenal, by repeating 3Lz or bringing in a 3A or -3Lo combos. This is Alina's main strength. We already know she's technically strong and she packs her programs just as much as Evgenia; what she lacks at this point, coming from Juniors, is the PCS, and if she is consistent through the first half of the season and has good programs, those will steadily rise and then her technical arsenal might be able to make up for the left over differences in PCS with Evgenia.

With the technical arsenal, one needs to work on those GOEs. Some people might complain about Evgenia's programs but she knows how to hit those GOE bullet points, and since bringing in quads and even a consistent 3A isn't really feasible for Olympics season, the ladies NEED to work on those GOEs (in their jumps and spins) and also hit those levels consistently too. Too many level 3 step sequences still; ladies need to step up!

Evgenia is the obvious choice for OGM and it's all but hers; however, I think Alina (with better packaging/programs for added PCS), Kaetlyn (Consistency! Land those jumps!) and maybe, maybe Satoko if she's in full form (and survives the cutthroat Japanese nationals), might pose a challenge. The fact is, Evgenia isn't going to be scored down from what she's accomplished so far and will likely keep on succeeding on next season, so everyone else needs to prove to the judges they can be just as good.

So here's hoping for an exciting early season for the ladies because that might make things less predictable for the Olympics.
 

zytolda

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 29, 2014
Oh. This is interesting. Tursynbaeva, I believe is capable of jumping and landing quads. She needs them to really be "seen" by the judges, if I may say so. But she's still has a long way to go to become OGM. If she does, that would be the best story!


Elizaveta T - means Elizaveta Tuktamysheva :)
 

Miller

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 29, 2016
A clean Evgenia is now at about 233 and it's difficult to see how she's suddenly going to score any less if clean. One fall and she's likely to get say 226/227 after taking account of PCS reduction. At this point Alina and Kaetlyn Osmond (218 with a popped loop and PCS increases) must come into the equation. 2 falls (she made 2 mistakes all last year, and one of them she rectified by doing a 3F-3T in the 2nd half of her GPF LP) and then there's quite a lot of skaters who could get about 220 if everything went right.

I also wouldn't rule out potential 3A skaters like Wakaba Higuchi and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, a 3A in the SP and they're right in the picture. Also I still wouldn't rule out Gracie Gold for at least a medal, she has the basic talent. Similarly Mariah Bell, given a years improvement, she's definitely the full package, IMO.
 

rugbyfan

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 29, 2012
Evgenia feels like a shoe in. At the moment it is more a battle for silver as I see it. There it becomes interesting. I want Osmond, but I love Honda's skating. Zagitova certainly seems in the mix but I admit I don't know here well enough.
 

Warwick360

Medalist
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
If Wakkaba can pack enough 3As (yes, I'm thinking more than 1), I think she might be one to stand out in the mix. Even without the potential 3As, she's been one to impress me a great deal when she's on her day. I just hope she's able to get the PCS a bit closer to the top skaters before Pyeongchang comes knocking. If that happens, in the words of Eurosport guys, that would be "throwing cat amongst the pigeons":biggrin:
 

Warwick360

Medalist
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
I also wouldn't rule out potential 3A skaters like Wakaba Higuchi and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, a 3A in the SP and they're right in the picture. Also I still wouldn't rule out Gracie Gold for at least a medal, she has the basic talent. Similarly Mariah Bell, given a years improvement, she's definitely the full package, IMO.

But with Tuk, unfortunately, she doesn't seem to have been able to make much inroads in the past few seasons. Her 3A has gone AWOL, and as for the program and the spins, hers seems to be going nowhere. :eek:hwell:
 
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