Looking at all my fancy models and other weather whirl-a-gigs, it is becoming increasingly apparent that central Florida is headed for a major disaster.
Based on the current information I have, Frances will hit the central coast of Florida between Titusville and Melbourne Saturday afternoon. Depending on the eyewall cycle, winds at landfall could be around 150 sustained with gusts in the 180 to 190. From landfall, Frances heads for Orlando then north to southern Georgia by early Monday. By then it will not have the winds but rainfall will be measured in the 10 to 20 inch range.
Frances could be Andrew and Camille all over again. The destruction wil be unbelievable and if Frances comes anywhere near Disneyworld and Universal Studios, those attractions will probably be closed for 3 to 6 months or longer for repairs.
This is not entirely chiseled in stone as there will be shifts in the track before actual landfall. Another factor is the winds at landfall. Conditions are extremely favorable for maximum intensity to be achieved at landfall. Not to bore you all with details but upper level condtions plus sea surface temperatures support a range of 140 to 160 mph sustained with gusts 175 to 205 mph at the time of landfall.
Needless to say I am going to have a very busy weekend...and I work three nights in a row starting Friday night.