Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 21

Thread: Hurricane Frances could be a Major Florida Disaster

  1. #1
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352

    Hurricane Frances could be a Major Florida Disaster

    Looking at all my fancy models and other weather whirl-a-gigs, it is becoming increasingly apparent that central Florida is headed for a major disaster.

    Based on the current information I have, Frances will hit the central coast of Florida between Titusville and Melbourne Saturday afternoon. Depending on the eyewall cycle, winds at landfall could be around 150 sustained with gusts in the 180 to 190. From landfall, Frances heads for Orlando then north to southern Georgia by early Monday. By then it will not have the winds but rainfall will be measured in the 10 to 20 inch range.

    Frances could be Andrew and Camille all over again. The destruction wil be unbelievable and if Frances comes anywhere near Disneyworld and Universal Studios, those attractions will probably be closed for 3 to 6 months or longer for repairs.

    This is not entirely chiseled in stone as there will be shifts in the track before actual landfall. Another factor is the winds at landfall. Conditions are extremely favorable for maximum intensity to be achieved at landfall. Not to bore you all with details but upper level condtions plus sea surface temperatures support a range of 140 to 160 mph sustained with gusts 175 to 205 mph at the time of landfall.

    Needless to say I am going to have a very busy weekend...and I work three nights in a row starting Friday night.

  2. #2
    Arm Chair Skate Fan show 42's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    San Joaquin Valley, Ca.
    Posts
    3,206
    I can't believe the beating Florida has taken from "mother nature" recently. My heart goes out to those who brave the elements to keep their homes and families safe.......42

  3. #3
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    The latest guidance indicates that Frances could increase to a category 5 hurricane within 24 hours as it moves into the warm water areas in the northwest Bahamas. Additionally, humidity levels aloft are beginning to increase which would also be favorable for increasing strength. The storm is undergoing the phenomena of eyewall replacement which is also an indicator of an increasing wind strength.

    There is also some indication that as Frances moves ashore in the Titusville/Ft. Pierce area, that instead of curving to the north it will stay on a straight course and move into the Big Bend area then into the western Panhandle of the state. This is due to the high pressure aloft is a little stronger over north Florida than originally thought.

    Bottom line....it does not look good for central Florida. It is looking better for the Carolinas in that they may avoid most of the affects as they shift further west into Alabama on Sunday and Monday.

    Unless I see a compelling reason to think differently, landfall wind speeds still look to be in the 150 to 160 mph range with gusts in the 185 to 195 range in coastal areas. These speeds should begin to drop as the hurricane moves inland.

  4. #4
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    1,213
    Oh my...this is so terrible. I watched a segment about it on the news tonight and had no idea they were expecting it to be a Category 5. This could be disasterous. I hope everyone will listen and evacuate.

  5. #5
    bugs are smarter than we are bronxgirl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    south florida
    Posts
    1,197
    There are already mandatory evactuations for coastal regions in Palm Beach county, all mobile homes in Brevard. They're trying to avoid a repeat of Floyd where people were stuck in their cars on the road as the storm hit.

  6. #6
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    Hurricane Frances continues to churn along towards the southeast coast of Florida. No change in the thinking as far as landfall in concerned with the Titusville/Ft. Pierce area looking to be ground zero.

    The only change is the some of the models are leaning towards the idea that France will make it across Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico, south of the Florida panhandle. If this is the case, then there would be a second landfall somewhere in west Florida or southern Alabama Tuesday. If this is the case, how much re-intensification can occur before the second landfall.....this is a problem to deal with after this weekend.

    Frances is undergoing eyewall replacement this morning so it is possible today that winds could go to 150 mph or higher. If she hits 155, we would have a category 5 hurricane on our hands.

    Other than that, the rest of my analysis from last night is still valid.

  7. #7
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    At 8am EDT, the cenetr of Frances was located at 23.2N, 73.5W or about 470 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Winds are around 145 mph.

    The lat/long coordinates above are very important for the following reason. As Frances continues west, where it crosses 75W longitude will give a good clue for the final landfall location.

    If Frances crosses 75W at a longitude between 22-23, most likely target would be the Keys. Since frances is already north of this brackey, a direct hit on the Keys is becoming less likely.

    If Frances crosses 75W at a longitude between 23-24, most likely target would be the Miami/West Palm Beach area.

    If Frances crosses 75W at a longitude between 24-25 , most likely target would be the Melbourne/Ft. Pierce area.

    If Frances crosses 75W at a longitude between 25-26, most likely target would be Melbourne to Daytona Beach.

    Anything further north and we would be talking north Florida to the Georgia coast. That seems unlikely at this time.

    Hurricane Frances should cross 75W this afternoon and we should have a pretty good indication of where. The next question is when since the storm seems to be slowing a tad, which would push the time of landfall to sometime just after midnight Sunday morning.

  8. #8
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    At 11am EDT, center of Hurricane Frances was located at 23.4N, 73.9W...winds still 145 mph with further strengthening likely.

  9. #9
    Da' Spellin' Homegirl Grgranny's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Kansas
    Posts
    2,144
    Thanks for keeping us posted Figureskates. My heart goes out to all those in it's way.

  10. #10
    bugs are smarter than we are bronxgirl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    south florida
    Posts
    1,197
    My closest friend in the world (more like a sister) lives in Palm Beach county. She's not in an evacuation zone, but I do have 2 other friends who are. All I can do is hope and pray for their well being.

  11. #11
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    At 2pm EDT, the center of Hurricane Frances was located at 23.8N, 74.4W. It looks like it will cross 75W at about 24.4N, which makes the Melbourne/Ft. Pierce scenario alluded to yesterday is going to be ground zero.

    Winds still 145 mph, a strong cat 4.

  12. #12
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    At 5pm EDT, the center of Hurricane Frances was at 24.1N,74.8W. Top winds were down a bit to 140 mph but don't lest this fool you. She has been chomping on the Bahamas plus she is in a low cycle in eyewall replacement which means she will regain strength.

    Time to talk track. Best guess will be a Ft. Pierce to Winter Haven to Bayonet Point on the west coast of the state. Landfall early Saturday afternoon. So get out your road maps and draw a line and that should be the path of the eye as of now. Eventhough she comes back out in the Gulf of Mexico, she will head inland again east of Appalachacola. This is the axis of major devastation with most of it from about 50 miles south of that line to about 75 miles north of that line.

    And if this isn't enough, a new system is developing out in the Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands...this too will most likely be a hurricane (Ivan) and may be on the same track as Frances. But this is 10 days out

  13. #13
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    Hurricane Francis is slowing down a bit and the satellite imagery shows the eye is getting distorted. This likely due to the interaction with the Bahama Islands and also due to the eyewall replacement cycle. She still has to cross the ocean from the Bahamas to Florida where some of thw warmerst water lies.

    The slower speed of Francis across Florida does mean that the wind speeds will be less in inland sections than the faster moving Hurricane Charley. However the flip side is that the rains will be heavier and the hurricane will linger longer over individual area, increasing the length of time of battering from the winds. The second flip side is that there is the threat of tornadoes with landfalling hurricanes. The slower speed means more tornadoes may form that could affect the inkand areas along the path.

    The rain issue may be a factor that to date is being underplayed. 10+ inches could fall from Frances and this is on top of what came from Charley plus the thunderstorms after. More flooding is likely with this system.

    I am going to bed since I have three all night shifts starting tomorrow night. I'll provide more updates in the early morning....

    To those in affected areas, if told to evacuate, do so. If you fell better by evacuating anyway do so. The hardest part of this job is the aftermath when the death toll mounts...don't be a part of it....OK?

  14. #14
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    Some good news with this package.

    Hurricane Frances has encountered some upper level shear and it is disrupting the eyewall circulation. The result is that the winds have dropped to 120 mph sustained. The debate now is whether Frances will get her eye reorganized over the next 48 hours before landfall to regain her original strength. I will note that the water off the Florida coast is very, very warm.....the kind of thing that hurricanes thrive on.

    Now the flip side. The hurricane's wind field has spread out, meaning that the area of hurricane force winds is larger. Also the forward speed is decreasing and there is a chance that Frances could just crawl across the state. This would not be very good as areas could take a very prolonged battering but more importantly, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches over a large area would be disasterous. The 13 inch rains that hit Richmond was only over an area of about 40 square miles. Now imagine that kind of rainfall over half the state of Florida.

    More later as I am off to the rink for an hour of figure skating.

  15. #15
    Go Figure!
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Coaching the Psychonettes....oops the one on the end fell again!
    Posts
    352
    At 11am, Hurricane Frances continues to plod towards the southeast coast of Florida. The hurricane has slowed it's forward speed and the eyewall continues to weaken. This means that the sustained winds are now down to 125 mph...still respectable but less than Charley at this point.

    Landfall looks to be around Ft. Pierce early Saturday evening and then track across towards Cedar Key on the Big Bend area of Florida.

    Attention now turns from the potential wind destruction to that of torrential rainfall. This storm will slow down even more as it crosses the state. This means that some areas could see 12 to 18 hours of 2+ inches of rainfall an hour. Do the math, some areas are going to measure rainfall totals in feet. I think there will be extensive and widespread flooding from this storm, especially places like Orlando and areas off to the southwest down towards the attractions where there has been a lot of built up areas. The St. Johns as well as the Kissimmee Rivers will go bankfull and spread laterally across low lying areas. With the terrain so flat, it will take time for the water to drain away.

    Coastal areas will see significant wind damage and storm surge as well, but less than what was feared yesterday.

    One note of caution, Frances still has to traverse the channel between the Bahamas and the Florida coast and travelling at a slow speed, there is time enough for the eyewall to refire and intensification to take place.

Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Hurricane Dennis
    By Figureskates in forum 2004-05 Figure Skating archives
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-09-2005, 06:00 PM
  2. Another Bad Hurricane Season Likely
    By Figureskates in forum 2004-05 Figure Skating archives
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 04-01-2005, 08:32 PM
  3. Hurricane Jeanne
    By Figureskates in forum 2004-05 Figure Skating archives
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-16-2004, 04:18 PM
  4. Hurricane Ivan
    By Figureskates in forum 2004-05 Figure Skating archives
    Replies: 27
    Last Post: 09-15-2004, 11:23 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •