2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

chillgil · Sep 30, 2017

well anyway i would definitely be thrilled if Kolyada made it to the podium and make a case for himself being a top 6 mens skater

and i do agree with some posters that if hanyu can put together two clean skates he will have made a truly magical olympic moment and it would be hard to imagine anyone getting the gold above him if that were the case

i think itll be fight for silver and bronze between kolyada, chen, and javi, and maybe boyang? i looove me some boyang but i hate his fs program this season lol

rabbit1234 · Oct 1, 2017

Hanyu challenged quad lutz eight times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He just jumped Shakey quad lutz (GOEminus) only once. The other seven failed.
In autumn classic, he was failing triple lutz from practice run-through.
The probability of triple lutz 's success in his competition for the last three seasons is 55% to 63%. The probability of quad lutz should be lower.
Hanyu challenged quad flip three times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He is not technically the best skater.

chillgil · Oct 1, 2017

rabbit1234 said:
Hanyu challenged quad lutz eight times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He just jumped Shakey quad lutz (GOEminus) only once. The other seven failed.
In autumn classic, he was failing triple lutz from practice run-through.
The probability of triple lutz 's success in his competition for the last three seasons is 55% to 63%. The probability of quad lutz should be lower.
Hanyu challenged quad flip three times in the practice of ISU World Team Trophy 2017.
But he never succeeded.
He is not technically the best skater.

not sure if this has any relevance to the thread...

4everchan · Oct 1, 2017

chillgil said:
not sure if this has any relevance to the thread...

of course it is relevant. we are discussing men's prospect for olympics. some people claim Yuzuru is unbeatable if clean... some others disagree...

i was at aci practice for LP... i saw yuzuru struggle on the 3lutz as well... and i simply thought that it happens often when learning a quad, the triple gets less stable... so it's a double edged-sword... skaters can work on harder jumps... but if they don't get consistent with them, they may also end up messing up the timing of the triple of the same type... he was landing the 4t and 4s easily... but not the 3lz....

FCSSp4 · Oct 1, 2017

Yuzuru's been practicing 4lo and 4lz in tandem since he won Sochi and yes training 4lz has affected his 3lz because of the timing. I wouldn't think about it too much about it since we'll see the 4lz's status by COR. I'll say this though, he has one heck of a 4lz if he lands it in competition. The clips I've seen make it look like it could rival Jin + Mikhail's but with the ridiculously short set up. Plus I do love me a good 4lz so it's exciting to know he has that in his arsenal.

Shoma wasn't landing 4S left and right nor was Nathan with his 4lo. Now they both have those jumps, I think at this rate the 4lz comes as necessary for Yuzuru even considering the risks.

Li'Kitsu · Oct 1, 2017

4everchan said:
of course it is relevant. we are discussing men's prospect for olympics. some people claim Yuzuru is unbeatable if clean... some others disagree...

i was at aci practice for LP... i saw yuzuru struggle on the 3lutz as well... and i simply thought that it happens often when learning a quad, the triple gets less stable... so it's a double edged-sword... skaters can work on harder jumps... but if they don't get consistent with them, they may also end up messing up the timing of the triple of the same type... he was landing the 4t and 4s easily... but not the 3lz....

No, Yuzu not landing a 4Lz in WTT practices several months ago has little to do with if he'd win if he skated clean or not. I'll leave the 'he was injured' blabla out and just say you're welcome to think his 4Lz won't happen - I just hope Yuzu will land a gorgeous one at CoR :luv17:

PS: I'd like to see those clips of Yuzu's 4F. Where are those?

MaiKatze · Oct 1, 2017

Chemistry66 said:
The Men's competition at Nebelhorn is over, and we have the final 6 qualifiers (at least initial qualifiers, since things could change).

The Olympic Spot tracker thread is up to date here. Direct link to the Men's post

QUalifiers from Nebelhorn are Belgium, Sweden, Italy, South Korea, Malaysia, and Ukraine. Philippines is the first reserve.

(I'm excited Jorik Hendrickx gets to join his sister in Pyeongchang)

I'm so happy for all the guys who made it and sad for those who didn't. It made me think how we all always concentrate on the top, and who will make the podium, but there are so many good skaters that perhaps will never medal but are great in their own way. To be at the Olympic Games is already a heck of an accomplishment. It's a bit sad to see the scores of lower tiers skaters at the B-competitions, because I don't think they reflect exactly the skill of a skater. When a lady gets around 20 points in the short and Medvedeva gets 80 then that seems like that lady is unable to skate at all, which is simply not true. Well, it is what it is. And I'm looking forward to ALL the men, not only my faves at the top!

4everchan · Oct 1, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
No, Yuzu not landing a 4Lz in WTT practices several months ago has little to do with if he'd win if he skated clean or not. I'll leave the 'he was injured' blabla out and just say you're welcome to think his 4Lz won't happen - I just hope Yuzu will land a gorgeous one at CoR :luv17:

PS: I'd like to see those clips of Yuzu's 4F. Where are those?

who is talking about the 4f? not me. :rolleye:

and as far as I am concerned, I am simply saying that I saw him struggle with the 3lutz (pops and falls) while acknowledging he was landing easily 4s and 4t at the aci lp practice. Having Yuzu, Javi and others right in front of you for an extended practice session can reveal a lot about skaters.

whether or not he will land a 4lz in a few weeks is not part of my discussion as I do not have a crystal ball. :drama:

and finally, one of the reasons IMHO why Yuzu struggled with consistency last year was because he added the 4loop. If he is toying with more and more and more quads, it's simply fair to say that his success rate may not be very high at first. But again, it's speculation and as I don't have a crystal ball, i will just sit back and watch.

Honestly and for what it's worth, I am excited to see what will happen in the end, and I will be the first one to acknowledge the winner's superiority if he skates a great program.... I just don't like the talks that proclaim winners before they skate.... sport is so much more interesting that way....

Li'Kitsu · Oct 1, 2017

4everchan said:
who is talking about the 4f? not me.

rabbit1234. Where did I say you did?

and finally, one of the reasons IMHO why Yuzu struggled with consistency last year was because he added the 4loop. If he is toying with more and more and more quads, it's simply fair to say that his success rate may not be very high at first. But again, it's speculation and as I don't have a crystal ball, i will just sit back and watch.

Or, you know, because of that injury that took him out for months. And I have no idea where that narrative comes from that Yuzu struggled more with consistency last season then usual - the only really bad one was the GPF LP, outside of that I thought he was arguably more consistent then before.

I just don't like the talks that proclaim winners before they skate....

Nobody proclaimed any winner though. You still don't get the difference?

Interspectator · Oct 1, 2017

MaiKatze said:
I'm so happy for all the guys who made it and sad for those who didn't. It made me think how we all always concentrate on the top, and who will make the podium, but there are so many good skaters that perhaps will never medal but are great in their own way. To be at the Olympic Games is already a heck of an accomplishment. It's a bit sad to see the scores of lower tiers skaters at the B-competitions, because I don't think they reflect exactly the skill of a skater. When a lady gets around 20 points in the short and Medvedeva gets 80 then that seems like that lady is unable to skate at all, which is simply not true. Well, it is what it is. And I'm looking forward to ALL the men, not only my faves at the top!

I remember Paul Bonifacio Parkinson from Italy and Peter Leibers who I saw for the first time at the Sochi Olympics. They made me an instant fan.

On the topic others have mentioned for and against predicting the Medalists, people are allowed to share their theories and projections about who is best placed to win, or we may as well close the site and twiddle our thumbs till the competition actually starts. Keep the predictions, hopes and dreams coming. :agree:

Here's a question, Who has your Steven Bradbury Bet? Who is your Darkest dark horse for a podium placement?
Mine's Jason Brown or Mura.

Roast Toast · Oct 1, 2017

My only wish for the Men's this season is that Boyang goes back to the Spiderman SP and threepeats his bronze medal at the Olympics. I just want that program in the Olympic hall of fame :rofl2:

MaiKatze · Oct 1, 2017

Interspectator said:
I remember Paul Bonifacio Parkinson from Italy and Peter Leibers who I saw for the first time at the Sochi Olympics. They made me an instant fan.
As for predicting the Medalists, people are allowed to share their theories and projections about who is best placed to win, or we may as well close the site and twiddle our thumbs till the competition actually starts. Keep the predictions, hopes and dreams coming. :agree:

Here's a question, Who has your Steven Bradbury Bet? Who is your Darkest dark horse for a podium placement?
Mine's Jason Brown or Mura.

Of course they are allowed to share their theories, where did I say otherwise? :scratch2:

It's already heartbreaking to know that at least 3 of 'potential' Gold medalists will get no medal at all. This could happen to any of the top men, yes, even Yuzuru could come out of the Olympics with no medal. It is a scary competition.

Dark horse....mmmh, I always thought that Kovtun, if he really REALLY nails it, could get a very high score. Perhaps Kolyada. Jason Brown, if he's absolutely sqeaky clean. But for me there are no dark horses at these Games. I would bet all my money that the podium will have three of the top 6 of Worlds 2017.

Interspectator · Oct 1, 2017

MaiKatze said:
Of course they are allowed to share their theories, where did I say otherwise? It's already heartbreaking to know that at least 3 of 'potential' Gold medalists will get no medal at all. This could happen to any of the top men, yes, even Yuzuru could come out of the Olympics with no medal. It is a scary competition.

Dark horse....mmmh, I always thought that Kovtun, if he really REALLY nails it, could get a very high score. Perhaps Kolyada. Jason Brown, if he's absolutely sqeaky clean. But for me there are no dark horses at these Games. I would bet all my money that the podium will have three of the top 6 of Worlds 2017.

Nah, just a general statement. Not directed at you at all, I only quoted you for the mention of other skaters, not at the top tier whom I liked. Sorry if that was unclear.

MaiKatze · Oct 1, 2017

Interspectator said:
Nah, just a general statement. Not directed at you at all, I only quoted you for the mention of other skaters, not at the top tier whom I liked. Sorry if that was unclear.

No worries then. I should take the forum announcement to heart and be calm and collected about the upcoming competitions. It's so hard when you want to defend your favourites in the Olympic season, but I'm getting better at it..hehe. :agree2:

Interspectator · Oct 1, 2017

MaiKatze said:
No worries then. I should take the forum announcement to heart and be calm and collected about the upcoming competitions. It's so hard when you want to defend your favourites in the Olympic season, but I'm getting better at it..hehe. :agree2:

You gotta feel deeply about skaters, it's what makes a fan! :ghug:

MaiKatze · Oct 1, 2017

Interspectator said:
You gotta feel deeply about skaters, it's what makes a fan!

True, if I didn't care it wouldn't be as exciting. Thinking of Dark Horses, I don't follow juniors, but doesn't Vincent Zhou go senior this season? The PCS might not be there, but perhaps he could be the one to upset? :think:

4everchan · Oct 1, 2017

Li'Kitsu said:
rabbit1234. Where did I say you did?

you quoted me and talked about the 4flips... so perhaps you should address that poster directly.

Li'Kitsu said:
Or, you know, because of that injury that took him out for months. And I have no idea where that narrative comes from that Yuzu struggled more with consistency last season then usual - the only really bad one was the GPF LP, outside of that I thought he was arguably more consistent then before.

injured or not, when a skater is on the ice, he is there to perform.. and there is no * on the score sheet saying that they are injured... we all know that many skaters compete with all sort of bruises and pain.... if Yuzu is able to deliver a stellar personal best performance in the SP, then he is potentially able to deliver something similar in a LP... especially after having seen the practices and warm up sessions.

Li'Kitsu said:
Nobody proclaimed any winner though. You still don't get the difference?

Interspectator said:
As for predicting the Medalists, people are allowed to share their theories and projections about who is best placed to win, or we may as well close the site and twiddle our thumbs till the competition actually starts. Keep the predictions, hopes and dreams coming. :agree:

Just for the records, I made my own predictions right in the first post of this thread, so I am definitely not saying that we shouldn't discuss skaters potential of winning medals... au contraire!!!!!!!!

all I said, is that I remembered hearing for many months that a clean skater X was unbeatable... and that of course, if that may sound appealing to some, I don't think it's the reality nowadays for two reasons
1) risk is higher than before so it's harder for any skater to be clean
2) there are many more skaters now who offer a very high BV... as a matter of fact, even the PCS advantage some skaters had in the past is gone because TES is ruling the sport...

so all I said was that in light of previous experience, it may be wise to not make such definite statements.... i didn't say that nobody should make predictions and as a matter of fact, there are pages of predictions in here that were made... I simply commented on that one statement that I felt was no longer as valid as it may have been a couple seasons back ...

:slink:

Li'Kitsu · Oct 1, 2017

4everchan said:
injured or not, when a skater is on the ice, he is there to perform.. and there is no * on the score sheet saying that they are injured... we all know that many skaters compete with all sort of bruises and pain.... if Yuzu is able to deliver a stellar personal best performance in the SP, then he is potentially able to deliver something similar in a LP... especially after having seen the practices and warm up sessions.

And I wasn't talking about scores, but about injury affecting consistency - which is what you talked about before, not scores. Stop shifting the goal post if you're arguments are called out.

And that last part is obvious bull.

GGFan · Oct 1, 2017

4everchan said:
so all I said was that in light of previous experience, it may be wise to not make such definite statements.... i didn't say that nobody should make predictions and as a matter of fact, there are pages of predictions in here that were made... I simply commented on that one statement that I felt was no longer as valid as it may have been a couple seasons back ...

Your statement seems pretty harmless.

Some posters: Everybody agrees that . . . 4everchan: Actually, everybody does not agree because . . .

I think it's completely valid to say that they are no "knowns" when it comes to the Olympics. The mixture of politics times 1000, the crowd influencing judges, the pressure, injuries, luck, etc. means that expectations can be turned on their heads. There have been many examples of expectations just going out the door at the Olympics. Yuzu might skate clean at the Olympics, but it just so happens that right before the Olympics (maybe at the GPF) someone picks up momentum, and at the Olympics they skate after Yuzu and have a moment. Anything can happen . . .

rabbit1234 · Oct 1, 2017

Discussion ignoring implementation capacity and probability in sports has no meaning. Just looking at the score when it is good, you can not predict sports.

2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

chillgil

Match Penalty

rabbit1234

chillgil

Match Penalty

4everchan

FCSSp4

Li'Kitsu

MaiKatze

4everchan

Li'Kitsu

Interspectator

Roast Toast

MaiKatze

Interspectator

MaiKatze

Interspectator

MaiKatze

4everchan

Li'Kitsu

GGFan

rabbit1234

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