Who is likely to win pairs Silver in Torino?

S&Z may not win. I for one hope someone else does.

If S & Z skate up to their potential then they would definitely get gold because imo they are far ahead of their competitors but who knows what will happen.

I'm glad everyone is harping on this thread that S&Z aren't a lock. Quite frankly, I believe and predict that T&M will win gold in 2006 (you can all roast me for it if it doesn't happen). The only thing that T&M lack is emotion on the ice: everything else in their program is at least equal to or vastly superior to S&Z. I like S&Z, but I've seen better pair teams and T&M have better control on their pairs elements than S&Z (though S&Z have bigger elements). T&M also are superior in side by side elements, unison and the spins. T&M have a year and half to get some expression in their skating, and considering that S&Z have great expression in their skating (who would have predicted that a few years ago), I don't think that it's impossible for them to achieve this. T&M already have the basics down pat.

Also the long Russian pairs streak is probably going to play some part in the decision: esp if both teams skate well.

soogar said:

I'm glad everyone is harping on this thread that S&Z aren't a lock. Quite frankly, I believe and predict that T&M will win gold in 2006 (you can all roast me for it if it doesn't happen). The only thing that T&M lack is emotion on the ice: everything else in their program is at least equal to or vastly superior to S&Z. I like S&Z, but I've seen better pair teams and T&M have better control on their pairs elements than S&Z (though S&Z have bigger elements). T&M also are superior in side by side elements, unison and the spins. T&M have a year and half to get some expression in their skating, and considering that S&Z have great expression in their skating (who would have predicted that a few years ago), I don't think that it's impossible for them to achieve this. T&M already have the basics down pat.

Also the long Russian pairs streak is probably going to play some part in the decision: esp if both teams skate well.

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What's likely to hurt T&M is the 'smallness' of their throws and split twist (this really needs to be fixed, and not just for the size!). They do have superior basics, extension, unison, etc. However, I have noticed that in the last couple of years the judges have thrown these things out the window. I believe S&Z will get higher marks even for the basics in the COP as they did last year. S&Z have their flaws but they are considered the favorites and I think they will prevail in Torino. I may not agree with the results, but that's how I see things turning out.

Skimming through the posts . . .

I don't think that anyone mentioned one of my favorites - Marcoux & Buntin. They improved greatly last year, so I'm excited to see how they do this year.

S&Z are my favorite team, but no team has a medal yet. There always seem to be some surprises at the Olympics. I'm hoping the some of my favorites in all of the disciplines will be among the surprise - or not so surprising - medal winners.

I repeat that T&M will win 2005 Worlds. It is geared in that direction for the hometwon favorites. I think without a doubt S&Z would win in Beijing.

The Olys, have a different crowd than Worlds. Getting tickets to the Figure Skating events will be for the rich and famous, or those poor slobs who love skating have been saving up their pennies for decades. Given this look at the Olys, I don't see a hometwon favorite.

In this connection, and given all teams skate their best, I see S&Z the winning team. They are spectacular. There is no question. They have enough of the 19th century ballet look together with the most stunning lifts ever in figure skating. Their routines by Miller are scrumptuous; their pair spins, their footwork; their individual jumps are all solid, and they will have the 'no particular' fans in the audience on their feet.

And by all means, roast me if I am wrong. I believe the 'lock' on Russian pairs ended in DC and was confirmed in the LP in Dortmund. Only Moscow will they silver medal. But the Olys is for S&Z. Russian fans pray for a big error by S&Z. That's the only way they will lose.

Joe

T/M may win in Moscow 2005 because they have the home advantage. But overall, they are not better skaters than Shen/Zhao. Some of the S/Z's elements are easier than T/M's, but S/Z perform them extremely well and get high GOE.

Where S/Z have a major advantage is the Skating Components marks, which are consistently higher than T/M's. That's partly because T/M do not relate to one another when they're skating, and they make no effort to sell their program. They may have great technical content, but their delivery is flat. S/Z truly skate as one, and not just physically. Their connection with one another and their expressiveness really captures the essence of the music they're skating to.

As for T/M 'learning to show emotion', if you are two people who basically don't relate to one another, and are both unexpressive individuals, you are not going to change in 3 years, let alone 16 months.

Joesitz said:

I repeat that T&M will win 2005 Worlds. It is geared in that direction for the hometwon favorites. I think without a doubt S&Z would win in Beijing.

The Olys, have a different crowd than Worlds. Getting tickets to the Figure Skating events will be for the rich and famous, or those poor slobs who love skating have been saving up their pennies for decades. Given this look at the Olys, I don't see a hometwon favorite.

In this connection, and given all teams skate their best, I see S&Z the winning team. They are spectacular. There is no question. They have enough of the 19th century ballet look together with the most stunning lifts ever in figure skating. Their routines by Miller are scrumptuous; their pair spins, their footwork; their individual jumps are all solid, and they will have the 'no particular' fans in the audience on their feet.

And by all means, roast me if I am wrong. I believe the 'lock' on Russian pairs ended in DC and was confirmed in the LP in Dortmund. Only Moscow will they silver medal. But the Olys is for S&Z. Russian fans pray for a big error by S&Z. That's the only way they will lose.

Joe

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I disagree that in the Olympics there are no hometown favorites. I was at the FS competitions in SLC 2002, and it was clear that a vast majority of the attendees were from USA and Canada. I expect these two countries represented in large numbers in Torino and Vancouver too. I don't expect to see a large number of Chinese or Russians at either venue. However, the anti-Russian sentiment would make the majority root for the Chinese. So the Chinese will have a pseodo home field advantage. Moscow will certainly offer an advantage to T&M but it just means they will have a chance to win (not a certainty).

Vash01 said:

I disagree that in the Olympics there are no hometown favorites. I was at the FS competitions in SLC 2002, and it was clear that a vast majority of the attendees were from USA and Canada. I expect these two countries represented in large numbers in Torino and Vancouver too. I don't expect to see a large number of Chinese or Russians at either venue. However, the anti-Russian sentiment would make the majority root for the Chinese. So the Chinese will have a pseodo home field advantage. Moscow will certainly offer an advantage to T&M but it just means they will have a chance to win (not a certainty).

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Vash - I don't see the anti-Russian sentiment in Golden Skate but I do understand the remark could be pointing at me. I don't take offence because there is some truth in it. We had a discussion about the anti-Kwan fans sometime back, who have a favorite but if their favorite does not win, they hope any other skater will win over Kwan. I think this is caused by excessive gushing. One gets tired or reading the same old gush. Russians are the best because they study ballet. really? Kwan can't do 3x3s. really? You get the drift.

As of today, I see the 4 disciplines at Worlds to Men - Plushenko; Ladies - undecided but I am leaning towards Irina; Pairs - T&M for the advantage; Dance - I haven't a clue. So with my predictions, I go with 2 definite Russians and 1 possible. Now I may not like these choices but my head gets stronger than my heart at times. None of this is written in stone since there is more to come before the Worlds including, unfortunately, injuries. Think Klimkin and Lambiel both of whom would go with the heart for me. I'm always happy when an American wins but only if I believe the skater deserved to win.

As for the Olys, that really is another thread in itself. I do think it will be S&Z and they will be far ahead of any American team. T&M are fine but when you compare with B&S, because we are talking Russian, it's not the same thing, and I am not enough a Russophile to worry about them. I've never been a believer that the winning Oly champ is the best in the world. I think some of those results at SLC showed that.

Joe

As far as the crowds in Torino are concerned, I think it depends on whether most of the tickets go to wealthy people, particularly the tour groups, or whether the crowd is similar to the crowd in Dortmund. At every event I've been to, including DC, there have been a large number from Russia (usually multiple separate groups) and large, vociferous groups from France. A member of the French group told a multi-lingual German women who translated for us that fewer were going to Moscow, and a token handful to Calgary, because everyone was saving up for the Olympics.

In Dortmund, there was just as much support for the Russian competitors in every event as there were for European or North American competitors, regardless of the number of North American tour groups. The French group in particular is very supportive of Russian skaters, even when they are direct competitors. If people weren't quite shrieking for Totmianina/Marinin in Dortmund, they gave them a spirited ovation all around, and the crowd, except for pockets, weren't that much more excited by Shen and Zhao. I suspect the Chinese government will make sure that Chinese supporters won't be shut out of the event in Torino.

Plushenko, Klimkin, Griazev, Slutskaya and Sokolova got stomping ovations, and Petrova/Tikhonov got as much applause as Pang/Tong. Domnina/Shabalin had as much support as any young team, and Kulikova/Novikov grabbed many with their style, which was reminiscent of D/V's. The only Russians that got an iffy reception from the crowd were Navka/Kostomarov, because the crowd was so pro Denkova/Staviyski, and N/K skated after not only them, but also Winkler/Lohse, and the crowd was screaming with joy that W/L were guaranteed a medal.

Joesitz said:

Vash - I don't see the anti-Russian sentiment in Golden Skate but I do understand the remark could be pointing at me. I don't take offence because there is some truth in it. We had a discussion about the anti-Kwan fans sometime back, who have a favorite but if their favorite does not win, they hope any other skater will win over Kwan. I think this is caused by excessive gushing. One gets tired or reading the same old gush. Russians are the best because they study ballet. really? Kwan can't do 3x3s. really? You get the drift.

As of today, I see the 4 disciplines at Worlds to Men - Plushenko; Ladies - undecided but I am leaning towards Irina; Pairs - T&M for the advantage; Dance - I haven't a clue. So with my predictions, I go with 2 definite Russians and 1 possible. Now I may not like these choices but my head gets stronger than my heart at times. None of this is written in stone since there is more to come before the Worlds including, unfortunately, injuries. Think Klimkin and Lambiel both of whom would go with the heart for me. I'm always happy when an American wins but only if I believe the skater deserved to win.

As for the Olys, that really is another thread in itself. I do think it will be S&Z and they will be far ahead of any American team. T&M are fine but when you compare with B&S, because we are talking Russian, it's not the same thing, and I am not enough a Russophile to worry about them. I've never been a believer that the winning Oly champ is the best in the world. I think some of those results at SLC showed that.

Joe

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Joe,

I was not pointing at you at all. The 'anti-Russian' is my general impression of the majority, although I know there are many in NA that are not that way at all.
I agree with you totally about there being a vast difference between B&S and T&M. In fact I believe B&S were the last of the great Russian pairs. We are not likely to see a strong Russian pair for many years, may be ever. I do believe, however, that T&M are a work in progress and they are making small improvements each season. My expectations of them were higher in 2001 than they were in 2002 and 2003. After 2004 I have a glimmer of hope that may be they can become something to remember, but I will hold that off until I see them at 2005 worlds. They have some very good things, but overall they don't come close to the great pairs of the past.

I am not sure that Irina can be a gold medal threat at this point- not unless she gets the 3-3's back. I am happy to see her skate, but her best days may be behind her.

Plushenko- it depends on his injury and lack of practice. That can shorten any career.

N&K will have to battle it out with D&S. Those two are close, and well trained.

In pairs I would say 80% S&Z, 20% T&M or Pang & Tong. I don't expect S&Z to make a major mistake again next year, and under COP even if they do, they will not be penalized that much.

So if we play the dice, perhaps the Russians will win 2 disciplines, with the home field advantage. Without it they will win just one, but I cannot say which one they will win. IMO pairs will be the second hardest to win (hardest being ladies)

Vash

I agree that Plushenko will win Worlds in Moscow. He is taking good care of himself and will be in the best possible condition.

I am not convinced that Irina will be able to skate the way she did in 2002. Her illness plus the medication she must continue to take drains her stamina. I think she will finish higher than she did at '04 Worlds, but I don't think she will win or maybe even not be on the podium. I remember reading an interview about Russian medal prospects at Worlds 2005 that someone had translated on another board. Apparently the Russian Federation thinks that Irina's best days are behind her.

ITA that Berezhnaya/Sikharulidze are the last great Russian pair. T/M do not begin to measure up to their predecessors. They may have the home court advantage, but they are going to have to skate up a storm to beat Shen/Zhao.

I do think Navka/Kostomarov will win the ice dance gold at Worlds 2005. I don't agree that they are the best team around, though. But somehow just BEING a Russian ice dance team assures a higher placement than being a team from any other country.

euterpe said:

I agree that Plushenko will win Worlds in Moscow. He is taking good care of himself and will be in the best possible condition.

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I hope he's in good form at Moscow. It's clear he's laying off the harder jumps, particularly the combinations, but I'm not sure skating 6-8 programs at shows necessarily means he's taking good care of himself. He clearly loves what he's doing, and is committed to it, and sometimes, that mind-body connection thing works, at least in the short term: Suzanne Farrell had knees so bad that Balanchine stopped giving jumps in class to accommodate her, yet in her autobiography, she describes a year where she danced 2 and sometimes 3 ballets a day for eight weeks at a stretch, and she claims she didn't hurt during that time.

euterpe said:

I remember reading an interview about Russian medal prospects at Worlds 2005 that someone had translated on another board. Apparently the Russian Federation thinks that Irina's best days are behind her.

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The Russian Federation, Piseev in particular, makes it a competitive sport to trash its Ladies on a regular basis. This is business as usual.

That should fire up Irina. She has already shown that she is a fighter. If someone tries to trash her, she will show them.

Go Irina!

Just a thought - Does it matter? As long as each pair team is judged fairly.

ok I wasn't sure who could be considered a lock among most of who you had so I chose Langlois and Archetto just because I felt like being silly (a girl can dream) now who was the other person who voted for 'em?

T/M! Definitely!

Ladskater said:

Just a thought - Does it matter? As long as each pair team is judged fairly.

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There always be those who believe their favorite pair was judged unfairly, no matter what (unless that pair wins the gold). We are not talking about fair judging here -that's a different topic- this is just a poll on how people perceive the remaining pairs.

Actually I don't want T&M to win the silver at all. I want them to win the gold in Torino. I am sure there will be screams of unfair judging if that happens, regardless of other factors.