Are Qualifying Rounds Really Necessary????

hockeyfan228 said:

I don't think a skater like Jennifer Don, with little difficult technical content are likely to make it through the qualis into the SP, either. She competed against very few skaters when she won last year, and won one of the first events to use CoP.

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I'm basing my estimate of her likely Worlds placement on both Nebelhorn and Four Continents (which used the interim system).

Here are the borderline skaters from Worlds that I'm guessing Don would have been in the mix with:
Worlds
Final not Reached
25. Julia LAUTOWA AUT 15 25
26. Michelle CANTU MEX 15 26
27. Mojca KOPAC SLO 14 27
28. Sara FALOTICO BEL 13 28
29. Daria TIMOSHENKO AZE 12 29
30. Ji Eun CHOI KOR 14 30
(16 in qual = tied for 31). Diane CHEN TPE


Nebelhorn
1. Jennifer DON USA143,07 1 1
5. Daria TIMOSHENKO 62 5 7
7. Amber CORWIN USA 117,87 3 8
8. Sara FALOTICO BEL 113,64 12 5

Four Continents
13. Jennifer DON USA 19,5 13 13
14. Fan ZHANG CHN 21,0 14 14
15. Michelle CANTU MEX 23,0 16 15
20. Diane CHEN TPE 30,5 19 21

Of course there's no guarantee that Don would have beaten Timoshenko, Falotico, Cantu, and Chen at Worlds, or that she would have lost to them all. I'd say they're all at a somewhat similar level and the results will depend how they each skate and how that particular judging panel happens to rate them each.

How likely is it that a skater with her skill set would make it out of Nationals in the US, Japan, Russia, Hungary, Ukraine, or even France, Germany, or Canada to be eligible to compete in the first place?

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Heh, these days she might well be able to get out of France or Germany, assuming she skated well when she needed to.

If it takes higher skills to be a top skater, I don't see why higher skills aren't required to qualify.

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I wouldn't define that skill level purely in terms of jump content, though.

Instead of making the cutoff be 15.7 worth of base mark (mid-level difficulty allowable for senior ladies) in short program jump content, if you want to set a cutoff, it would make more sense to me to set a cutoff score for the whole program, including jump and non-jump elements, grades of execution, and program components, and let the skater work toward that total by maximizing whatever their strengths happen to be.

And if you're going to use scores from previous competitions to determine who meet the minimums to enter Worlds in the first place, better to use long programs or short-plus-long at whole competitions, to give a better picture of the skaters' whole skill sets and not just their short program jump content.

The skater a cut-off model hurts is a skater with no international competitions or qualifying scores within the last year*, who places high enough in his/her national championship, and is injured or ill and cannot compete at 4C's or Euros in order to qualify.

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E.g., Rudy Galindo in 1996. Of course there was no Four Continents back then, much less Code of Points, but he did go to the one available international between Nationals and Worlds and withdrew after the short due to injury.

That kind of thing might not happen to medal contenders every year, but chances are there would be at least one man or woman each year who would have been able to get past quals and maybe short program under the current system but wouldn't get to go at all if a good point total at a previous international event were necessary. And occasionally it would happen to medal contenders.

In other words, no system is perfect. I don't see that the simple fact of holding a qualifying competition at the Worlds venue is such a problem that it needs to be scrapped in favor of some other system that will introduce different problems. I do think that the way cuts are made at Worlds and whether any established skaters should be exempted from the qualifying process should be open to discussion.

Joesitz said:

Quote:

Give me a list of 40 skaters and I will pick out the top 18 finishers before the competition. And I will be 99 per cent correct. Not so difficult.

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Heh. Can't find you a list of 40 skaters, but here are links to rosters for this week's and next week's international events, with 15-29 men and ladies in the fields.

http://www.finlandiatrophy.com/competitors/

http://www.isufs.org/events/fsevent00007826.htm

http://www.isufs.org/events/cat00004705.htm

http://engelmann.co.at/ksm/2004/index.php

(For the junior events, be sure not to include the substitute skaters with the S next to their names. Just consider the numbered skaters.)

How about predicting who will make the top 10 one or more of these events. No need to predict which order, just who will make the "cutoff" for 10th place vs. who won't.

If you're familiar with many of the names, I bet you will get at least half of them correct. And I bet you'll also get at least one wrong, so no better than 90%.

And I bet I would not be 90% correct either. You know what they say, Ice is slippery.

gkelly said:

Of course there's no guarantee that Don would have beaten Timoshenko, Falotico, Cantu, and Chen at Worlds, or that she would have lost to them all. I'd say they're all at a somewhat similar level and the results will depend how they each skate and how that particular judging panel happens to rate them each.

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Very true, nothing is guaranteed. Though if the judging had been decent in Dortmund, Finland and Ukraine would have had two places this year, and both of those skaters would very likely have beaten Don.

gkelly said:

Heh, these days she might well be able to get out of France or Germany, assuming she skated well when she needed to.

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I don't know, not with those girls throwing out 3/3's and several younger ones ready to take their place.

gkelly said:

I wouldn't define that skill level purely in terms of jump content, though.

Instead of making the cutoff be 15.7 worth of base mark (mid-level difficulty allowable for senior ladies) in short program jump content, if you want to set a cutoff, it would make more sense to me to set a cutoff score for the whole program, including jump and non-jump elements, grades of execution, and program components, and let the skater work toward that total by maximizing whatever their strengths happen to be.

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This was my cynicism coming out, because the points that a skater can make up by doing high-level spins, spirals, and footwork passes -- and not that many were called last year -- is too little. It might make the difference between a skater like Don qualifying or not, but it seems to me that most of it would be a wash.

gkelly said:

And if you're going to use scores from previous competitions to determine who meet the minimums to enter Worlds in the first place, better to use long programs or short-plus-long at whole competitions, to give a better picture of the skaters' whole skill sets and not just their short program jump content.

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. That could work just as well.

gkelly said:

In other words, no system is perfect. I don't see that the simple fact of holding a qualifying competition at the Worlds venue is such a problem that it needs to be scrapped in favor of some other system that will introduce different problems. I do think that the way cuts are made at Worlds and whether any established skaters should be exempted from the qualifying process should be open to discussion.

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If you're exempting skaters from the qualifying process, why hold qualifications at all? Why not use the results from existing competitions to create the field? The ISU could hold a qualification skate if they wanted, with their own judges, outside of Worlds.

Qualification rounds pack the schedule, the timing is off for the skaters -- skaters consider the earlier round a big disadvantage -- and the time and ice could be used for practice, which would give the competitors an advantage they don't have now. The rink folks could even respond to feedback like "the ice is too hard," which Kwan and other complained about in Dortmund, but could do nothing about.

One reason that I really like Joe's suggestion that the number in the Finals be cut to the 10-12 range is that with 24 skaters, there isn't enough time to zamboni the ice for every group, and the final six (or four, in pairs) skate on really crappy ice.

gkelly said:

Heh. Can't find you a list of 40 skaters, but here are links to rosters for this week's and next week's international events, with 15-29 men and ladies in the fields.

http://www.finlandiatrophy.com/competitors/

http://www.isufs.org/events/fsevent00007826.htm

http://www.isufs.org/events/cat00004705.htm

http://engelmann.co.at/ksm/2004/index.php

(For the junior events, be sure not to include the substitute skaters with the S next to their names. Just consider the numbered skaters.)

How about predicting who will make the top 10 one or more of these events. No need to predict which order, just who will make the "cutoff" for 10th place vs. who won't.

If you're familiar with many of the names, I bet you will get at least half of them correct. And I bet you'll also get at least one wrong, so no better than 90%.

And I bet I would not be 90% correct either. You know what they say, Ice is slippery.

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I was being facitious, but now that you've question my soothsaying abilities, I'll bet you a cookie I can predict those top 18 skaters in the finals at Worlds and be 99 per cent correct. I think you can too. That is not difficult. I believe you work for the ISU or you are a judge so you are familiar with all those skaters and probably know their names.

I, for one, would like to hear about your proposal. Could you follow my outline below? and maybe give us an idea of where you are exactly on this topic?

Do you believe there should be an elimination round of some sort?
If no, then what would you propose to do with the Quali rounds now?
If you want to keep the Qualis the way they are, then end of subject. (what is being discussed by the posters are just thoughts being battered around, and it seems these thoughts are not to your liking.)

If yes, what kind of elimination round would you propose?
If there are more than 30 entrants, what would be the cut off.
Once the skaters who do not make the cut, would the:
scores of the elimination round be eliminated too or kept as part
of a three segment total score?

It's just thoughts being exchanged. None of the posters have the power to influence the ISU. You can join in too with your thoughts on an elimination segment in the Worlds or other large participating competitions.

If you like the way things are already set up, then that's ok too.

Joe

hockeyfan228 said:

If you're exempting skaters from the qualifying process, why hold qualifications at all?

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To get the field down to a manageable size to be judged in the final. With the Code of Points, that size may be larger than with ordinals.

Why not use the results from existing competitions to create the field? The ISU could hold a qualification skate if they wanted, with their own judges, outside of Worlds.

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For some skaters and some officials, this would mean extra travel to a different competition in a different part of the world that they wouldn't have had to go to otherwise (or would have had the option, depending on finances, health, etc.) This is of course more of a burden on the Four Continents skaters than on the European ones, since the European championships and most of the B internationals are concentrated within Europe, whereas a 4Cs skater may have to travel from Asia to North America for the continental championship and then to Europe for Worlds.

Countries with developing programs don't want to be told they're not welcome to participate in Worlds at all unless they jump through some other hoop at some other event in some other part of the world, which is why they'll vote against an exclusionary approach. I do think they have a point, and that participation at the world level raises the standard in these countries and in the world as a whole faster than only competing against skaters at their own level.

One reason that I really like Joe's suggestion that the number in the Finals be cut to the 10-12 range is that with 24 skaters, there isn't enough time to zamboni the ice for every group, and the final six (or four, in pairs) skate on really crappy ice.

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Grand Prix events have 10-12 skaters per discipline, and they do not resurface the ice between groups. I doubt they would start doing at Worlds either.

Joesitz said:

I was being facitious, but now that you've question my soothsaying abilities, I'll bet you a cookie I can predict those top 18 skaters in the finals at Worlds and be 99 per cent correct. I think you can too. That is not difficult.

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OK, check back with me next March.

I believe you work for the ISU or you are a judge so you are familiar with all those skaters and probably know their names.

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I do not work for the ISU and I am not a judge.

Do you believe there should be an elimination round of some sort?

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I like to see as much participation as possible in the sport's biggest event. If I were going to introduce drastic changes, I would rather see the option of more skaters participating (e.g., up to 5 per country), and break up the initial field into more groups if necessary to make the necessary cuts.

That of course would increase the costs for the organizing committee, so let the federations pay entry fees for any extra skaters they enter beyond the one free entry allowed.

That's the most drastic change I'd like, and the most expensive, so I could live without it if it's not cost effective.

I already explained a few months ago why I think cutting the number of skaters who advance to the final would be a money-losing proposition for the organizers.

If anyone is to be exempted from qualifying, I would have it be skaters who medaled at Europeans and Four Continents that season (or placed in the top 5 or 10 there) plus anyone who qualified for the the Grand Prix final (even if they withdrew because of a legitimate health issue) or who did actually compete at the final as an alternate, where these are not the same individuals as the continental medalists. Junior World medalists from that year, provided they're old enough and their country chooses to send them to senior Worlds as well, could also be exempt.

If two or more groups are necessary, I would seed them according to the ISU standings at the time, not according to last year's Worlds results.

I would not carry over the the point totals from the qual rounds to the finals, but I would consider the rankings (e.g., tied for 31st) to be official Worlds standings for the skaters who don't advance.

The process of determining who gets cut, and how many skaters is the maximum in a group is probably up for revision as we discover what works with the code of points.

I would not like to see Worlds reduced to just an expanded version of the Grand Prix final with only 12 elite skaters who qualify through outside events. I think there is a real value to bringing the worldwide skating community together in one place at one time that would be lost if no such event existed at the senior world level.

I should think that judging 40 short programs under the ordinal system, and trying to place them in some semblance of correct order would be an absolute nightmare, especially given that the overall skill level is a lot more even than it was 20, 30 years ago. This is in part why the qualifying round was instituted in the first place, because this is exactly what happened in Oakland in '92 (the last Worlds not to have qualifying).

I don't have a problem with there being qualifying rounds for this very reason, tho I will allow that under CoP, the concept may now be outdated. Under the ordinal system, however, IMO it made the overall judging less error-prone by breaking the skaters down into more manageable groups. However, I don't think it should count toward the overall score; I've had a problem with that point ever since it was instituted. Now that one has QUALIFIED, let's let them start fresh with the SP, shall we?

As far as this "it takes too much toll on the skaters to skate 2 LP's and an SP in one competition" arguement -- IF YOU ARE QUALIFIED TO SKATE ON THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP LEVEL, YOU SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO SKATE YOUR COMPLETE LONG PROGRAM AT LEAST TWICE IN ONE WEEK. IF YOU CANNOT, THEN YOU SHOULDN'T BE THERE TO BEGIN WITH. Many top coaches require 2 or 3 complete runthtroughs per day, how is this any more exhausting than that??

JonnyCoop said:

As far as this "it takes too much toll on the skaters to skate 2 LP's and an SP in one competition" arguement -- IF YOU ARE QUALIFIED TO SKATE ON THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP LEVEL, YOU SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO SKATE YOUR COMPLETE LONG PROGRAM AT LEAST TWICE IN ONE WEEK. IF YOU CANNOT, THEN YOU SHOULDN'T BE THERE TO BEGIN WITH. Many top coaches require 2 or 3 complete runthtroughs per day, how is this any more exhausting than that??

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Yes, yes, yes. It is not the skaters who have the problem of skating 3 programs. These could be spread over a few days to give them sufficient rests (if they need it) and practice times. Besides they are on an adrenal rush and are goal set. If for any reason they are not up to that personal challenge, maybe they should not be in the competition in the first place. I can think of a few Japanese and American skaters who if they were entered in the Championships would be in the top 18, but they will not be eligible by their respecive Nationals. I contend the contestants will do whatever they have to do to skate,and go for the gold.

However, I am not so sure of the judges especially the 'old timers' who know the top tier skaters with their eyes shut. How well will they be judging 45 or more skaters in no particular order skating to all too familiar music for 4.5 minutes each? It's not the CoP's fault. It's human error due to ennui and fatigue. While this may or may not affect the top 12 skaters, it will definitely affect the rest of the field. I can see a 'rush to judgement'.. Hope the CoP can take care of this but even so, will the judges be as dilligent for a less than top tier skater as they are for the top tier?

Let's see what they do at Euros.

Joe