SP strategy and the CoP

With Skate America starting in a couple of days, do you think we will see a change in strategy in how the skaters approach the short program this year? In the past, especially for the ladies, the maxim was, you can't win the contest with the SP, but you can lose it. That is, if you were one of the top skaters going for gold, you had to play it safe in the SP because under ordinal scoring third place was as good as first, but one mistake and you're out of the running.

Now, with cumulative scores under the CoP, every fraction of a point counts. Plus, the skaters have an extra 10 seconds specifically to do more intricate and complete in-betweens , etc. Do you think these changes will result in more adventuresome programs?

BTW, other boards are discussing Michelle's short program music, recently announced as the adagio from the ballet Spartacus by Khachaturian, rather than the tango from the Moulin Rouge soundtrack . Now we’ll have to wait until Nationals to see it -- unless she changes her mind!

Link to the MK Forum: http://p216.ezboard.com/fmichellekw...sageRange?topicID=23060.topic&start=1&stop=20

You are right. A fall will be less costly under the COP. I believe the top skaters (1-6) will go for their big tricks and pull out all stops. The lower ranked skaters may become more adventurous too. Will that produce better programs? I am not so sure. They could end up being 'too busy'

Vash

There are limits at any time to what skaters can put in their SP's. Adding elements is tricky, because they have to be performed after the listed ones to count, or else there is no credit for a required element. (Lindemann lost credit for his serpentine FW in a LP last year, because the judges counted an earlier footwork piece that was part of the choreography.) Skaters can add:

a. Difficulty in jumps, spins, footwork, and lifts
b. More revolutions in spins
c. More transitions between elements
d. More brackets, choctaws, etc. in place of crossovers

If the SP's start looking like Hamill's and Curry's programs from the 1970's, I'd find that a happy change.

Vash01 said:

You are right. A fall will be less costly under the COP.

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I'm convinced the opposite is true, and there have been examples of this already on the JGP. Let's look at a junior man doing the most difficult jumps allowed by the rules -- triple axel/triple toe, triple loop, double axel -- and assume level 1 for the spins and step sequences, which is pretty typical for juniors (and in any case spins and footwork are worth so little compared to jumps it doesn't change the analysis much). The points break down to:

11.5 combination
8.3 other jumps
6.0 spins
4.0 step sequences
-----
29.8

Supposing the skater falls on the first jump of the combination, they will get no credit for the second jump even if they get up and try it, plus a 1.0 deduction for the fall in addition to the -3 GOE, which means the combination will only net them 3.5 points, meaning they lose over a quarter of the base technical value of the entire routine! And if they were unlucky enough to have the caller think the first jump was cheated, their credit for the combination will only be 0.2, meaning they have lost a *third* of the base technical value! OTOH, under the 6.0 system, the maximum deduction for a fall on the combination was 0.5 off the mark for required elements, which was not substantially different than the deduction for a fall on any other element.

At the senior level, of course most of the top skaters will be doing a quad in combination and a triple as the solo axel. But the same principle applies since the combination is by far the most heavily weighted of the program elements, and the jumps make up an even larger fraction of the technical elements mark. A fall on the combination can put the skater in such a deep hole after the short program that they have no hope of making it up unless skaters above them make equally dreadful mistakes on their hardest jumps in the free skate.

i think CoP really benefits Miki Ando in the short program! if she nails her awesome 3lutz-3loop that will give her huge points going into the long program. Miki could end up winning event after event by taking a commanding lead in the short and then finishing just 2nd or 3rd in the long. :sheesh:

tripletriples in the short are the key to winning under CoP.

I really don't understand the rating of a fall.
I don't understand the rating of an attempt.
I don't understand the downgrading of a jump.
I don't understand the rating of a 3x3x3 when the last 3 is cheated at take-off.and/or on the landing.

I know there will be simple answers to the above but will they actually be followed by the Caller Team and the judges? This we must look at carefully imo. If these possible errors occur and overlooked, then we are back at 6.0.

The Presentation scores seem to be ok if they are actually followed.

I don't see powerful jumpers as an easy win.

(As for Kwan's SP music, it is a beautiful adagio written by an Armenian, and guess the nationality of Kwan's coach.)

Joe

Taan said:

i think CoP really benefits Miki Ando in the short program! if she nails her awesome 3lutz-3loop that will give her huge points going into the long program. Miki could end up winning event after event by taking a commanding lead in the short and then finishing just 2nd or 3rd in the long. :sheesh:

tripletriples in the short are the key to winning under CoP.

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Not necessarily. She has to have it fully rotated to begin with. Plus there are the other elements in the SP plus the component scores. Because the SP only has 3 jumps(4 with combo) the other elements do make a difference. Sasha and Michelle could make up that 3/3 point gap with the spins and spirals alone compared to Miki. If Miki does her spins and spirals like Campbell's they'll not only be lower level but get negative grades of execution. Sasha beat skaters who did a 3/3 in the SP last year under COP because of all the points she got with the other elements and presentation.

Like Dr. Frog said a botched attempt on a combo can really put you in a hole. Unless you know you can do it you shouldn't take the risk especially if you are good at the other elements. I don't see Michelle or Sasha ever doing a 3/3 in the short unless all the skaters are doing it. They can make it up on other elements and then be in good position for the LP.

Adding my $.00 as well...

In regards to Miki Ando (who I am a big fan of btw), I also don't see it as a clear win for her in the SP, though the 3Z/3R does help. But that said, I also don't see her down in the rankings either, especially if she hits all her elements, like she did at 2004 Worlds. Rather, I see a Top 3 or 4 placing in the SP as a good deal (mayhap even Top 2 if others don't hit). Then she can make up the points in the FS with her difficult triple-triples & 4S. JMHO.

By the way, Miki's spins are actually pretty good, when she does not mess them up (lol), especially her ending back scratch spin! Two thumbs up for that one alone. :agree: However, as mentioned by others, her spirals need work, in both steadiness & flexibility/tension. Once she gets that under control, I recommend using Irina Slutskaya as an example, whom doesn't have the extension of the American ladies, but does have complex & difficult spirals (aka speed, power, all on one foot).

That said, I think that Miki's speed, power, correct edges, and fluidity will be great assets to her in both the SP & FS, as she excels in these areas. JMHO.

Peace & Love, Nadine

Nadine said:

: However, as mentioned by others, her spirals need work, in both steadiness & flexibility/tension. Once she gets that under control, I recommend using Irina Slutskaya as an example, whom doesn't have the extension of the American ladies, but does have complex & difficult spirals (aka speed, power, all on one foot).

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I think if you watch Ando's feet in her spiral sequence at Campbell's, you'll see the foundation for that difficulty already. Also, in her SP last year, she did one of the hardest spiral movements -- a ronde de jambe from front to back with a straight leg, with a weight change (going forward) and the weight of the boot so far from the central axis of the body. Kostner did this in her 2003 LP as well.

LBC said:

Sasha and Michelle could make up that 3/3 point gap with the spins and spirals alone compared to Miki.

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Well Sasha probably can but definitely not Michelle. I think Miki's spin is better than Kwan's overall.

qoo said:

Well Sasha probably can but definitely not Michelle. I think Miki's spin is better than Kwan's overall.

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Well, that's why they have contests. We'll see.

qoo said:

I think Miki's spin is better than Kwan's overall.

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Miki has a very fast scratch spin, travelling a bit. Her scratch spin is better than MK's. MK has one of the best sit spin in the business, perfect back position, good speed. MK's new combination with spinning in both directions is good, a bit slow. I think their layback spin are comparable. MK's Y spin is more pleasing to the eyes than ando's I spin.