Does Irina have a realistic chance of winning W05?

Vash01 · Nov 25, 2004

I love Irina for her courage, and I enjoy her skating for its power and excitement. As much as I like Michelle, and several others, I would love to see Irina win gold in her hometown at worlds 2005. Is it possible though?

After watching Irina's win at COC I felt encouraged that she can compete at the top level, although her competition at COC was very weak. She appeared to be well trained. COC did not have any of the top ladies- Shizuka, Sasha, Michelle- the top 3 at worlds in 2004.

I did not particularly care for Irina's music or the program, but I find it COP friendly. I am sure all other top skaters have COP friendly programs too. Shizuka certainly does, and she can pull it off. Michelle has the 'Bolero' advantage- famous music, famous choreographer, and her own passionate artistic style. Sasha has exquisite positions like no one else.

Irina's pluses are:

Home crowd
Powerful jumps and jump combinations, particularly if she is able to pull of a 3-3
Strong spins, particularly the back Biellman which only she can do
Difficult footwork
Her lively personality on the ice which can be contagious, and will certainly be in Moscow, if she skaters nearly clean programs.

Irina's minuses:

Her health- can she hold up in the grueling schedule of QR,SP,LP at worlds?
Lack of elegance, extensions and lines (all the top 3 are far superior in this regard)
There are plenty of young skaters with difficult jumps that can challenge her (Ando, Phaneuf, Kostner) and take away the jump advantage.

This is going to be a very tough ladies field, and a very interesting competition for the audience.

What are Irina's chances of winning? I would say medium (50%-60%).

Vash

Mathman · Nov 25, 2004

Well, if Irina has a 55% chance of winning, that makes her the odds-on favorite, leaving only 15% each for Michelle, Sasha and Shizuka.

I think the home crowd advantage will be very important, both in terms of getting Irina juiced up to skate her best and also in terms of judges hoping that she skates well enough to deserve the high marks.

Her health and stamina will be the whole story, I think.

Based on what we have seen so far, it is just impossible for me to make a guess. We have seen one good performance from Michelle, one bad performance from Sasha, and two pretty good performances from Shizuka. The Marshall's event may show something about where they are right now, but it's still a long season.

Mathman

mpal2 · Nov 25, 2004

Good assessment of the plus and minus for Irina. I really don't know how I would call this one other than a gut feeling that her illness will keep her from winning. She has a lot of determination and may pull out a medal. I don't know though. It's a hard call to make with only seeing her in the one competition so far. She could be battling nerves a little bit just from being out of competition for so long. I wish we could see her short programs.

Shizuka hasn't had a clean long program yet this season so I don't know how I would place her among Sasha and Michelle. It's even harder because we've only seen the two US ladies once at the beginning of the season. Sasha has had the back injury and Michelle has been laying low to train more. I really don't think I can make a prediction at this point.

Maybe Marshall's will give us more of an idea. I think we need at least a second viewing of Michelle and Sasha before we can make a more informed opinion of where the ladies rank amongst each other.

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 25, 2004

mpal2 said:
Maybe Marshall's will give us more of an idea. I think we need at least a second viewing of Michelle and Sasha before we can make a more informed opinion of where the ladies rank amongst each other.

I hope it does, but for Irina and Shizuka and other int'l skaters, it's a long trip and depending on when they intend to arrive will explain their skate THAT night. I would love to see a clean skate by everyone involved so as to get a better idea of what to expect at worlds.

Irina, I believe, so far has the advantage at Worlds. She'll be hometown favorite, praise for the comeback from illness, and all those jumps. Shizuka may give her a run for the jumps but MK and SC are sadly lacking at this time.

Joe

R.D. · Nov 25, 2004

I agree with MM and mpal that it's just not the time to make a good prediction based on what we've seen. I would think "home field advantage" might get her going, though.

I disagree with MM that SC had a "bad" performance. I thought it was just average based on the way she usually performs. Last year's Marshall's event, now THAT was a bad performance.

Back on topic: if I understand correctly, Irina is going to be at Marshalls? That will be the big opportunity for all these ladies to figure out where they stand. I think then we'll know whether Irina stands a good chance of medalling (I think expecting her to win puts a bit too much pressure on her now). Remember, during her recovery she came in 9th at last year's worlds. At Marshall's Irina may have a good chance of beating Cohen, but I'm not sure about the other two (Kwan and Arakawa).

rtureck · Nov 25, 2004

I think Irina has a good chance. I am rooting for her. She has been there done that, she is a world champion and knows what it takes to win.

.She has home field advantage, and her music choices are good. I haven't seen her sp yet, but I like her choice of Shostakovich's the bolt. At least it is oh no not Tchaikovsky ballet like Nut Cracker again. The bolt is charming, and exciting. She is keeping Tchaikovsky's the queen of spades for her lp. Good choice too. At least it is not another water down swan lake, or Dark Eyes (Roma melody) the third time around. I hope Irina will keep her costume with the heart. That design only works on her, IMO no one can pull that off like Irina.

wvgal57 · Nov 25, 2004

Shizuka and Irina will be handicapped at Marshall's due to just coming off of COR and then flying to US on a long flight, jet lag, no down time..

Irina is adapting to training with her illness but the season has just started. I want her to do well but more than anything I want her to be happy. She is happy competing and skating. She is not happy simply being a skater. That drive and ambition is what has got her back on the ice and in the shape she is now.

Her health questions overshadow a lot for this brave young woman. Long term is Turino but she's not letting that be her only goal because that is just not how she sees skating.

R.D. · Nov 25, 2004

Shizuka and Irina will be handicapped at Marshall's due to just coming off of COR and then flying to US on a long flight, jet lag, no down time..

I still think they have a good chance of at least beating Cohen. Kwan is sort of the mystery here, but of course with it being a Marshall's event the judges will give it to her in a close race. I think if the American federation wants these events to be taken more seriously by the masses, they should eliminate what I think is an American bias (for example, get more international competitors, give everyone a fair shake). Of course, as long as the event is in the US, the American skaters will get home field advantage. I'm not really criticizing the event as it is, but I believe there is a reason these events are known to the online skating public as "cheesefests".

Of course Irina is not content with simply being a skater. That's why she fights so hard, even through difficult times, to stay in the game. Very inspiring, IMO. I have new-found respect for her now.

rtureck · Nov 25, 2004

Hmm.. this thread is about Irina and worlds 05, not Marshall's, some fan is already talking down expectations for his / her favorite :rofl:

R.D. · Nov 25, 2004

rtureck said:
Hmm.. this thread is about Irina and worlds 05, not Marshall's, some fan is already talking down expectations for his / her favorite

Who would be...? :laugh:

:sheesh:

Just like other posters, and FYI, I think the results of Marshall's need to be known to further answer the question of how well we can predict Irina, or any of the other ladies, will do at Worlds. :agree:

rtureck · Nov 25, 2004

Red Dog said:
Who would be...? :sheesh:

I think the results of Marshall's need to be known to further answer the question of how well we can predict Irina, or any of the other ladies, will do at Worlds. :agree:

I don't know whether Marshall is a good predictor of worlds, on the one hand, because many things can happen in between Marshalls and worlds. OTOH, we have seen many times the good placement in cheesefests by e.g. Michelle and Irina (who BTW had beat MK a few times in the cheesefest) were followed by their excellent placement in worlds. So all the talk about how Mk will win in a close race at cheesefest is IMHO moot. Who remembers who won a cheesefest back in 2001, or 2002 , but we all remember MK won worlds in 01, and Irina won worlds in 2002.

R.D. · Nov 25, 2004

rtureck said:

I'm still waiting...

Oh yeah, never mind, you're just saying that to spite me. I know you know deep inside what everyone else knows: that I don't, and never had, a so-called "favorite".

I don't know whether Marshall is a good predictor of worlds, on the one hand, because many things can happen in between Marshalls and worlds. OTOH, we have seen many times the good placement in cheesefests by e.g. Michelle and Irina (who BTW had beat MK a few times in the cheesefest) were followed by their excellent placement in worlds. So all the talk about how Mk will win in a close race at cheesefest is IMHO moot. Who remembers who won a cheesefest back in 2001, or 2002 , but we all remember MK won worlds in 01, and Irina won worlds in 2002.

In some cases you may be right; injuries can occur, etc. But, considering that there is no other meet for all of these girls before worlds, there is no other real benchmark on which to base predictions. I guess you could look at the GPF (Irina and Shiz if qualified) or US Nationals (Kwan, cohen) but those are two separate competitions with different pressures. No comp. is the perfect indicator of how well one will do (even if it was the day before worlds). Stuff like that is determined on skate day, within the skaters. Considering that Marshall's is the final meeting of the contenders before worlds, I think it would be a good thing to know the outcome before going further.

Vash01 · Nov 25, 2004

I don't think Marshalls can be compared with worlds. The only thing it will have in common is the presence of top contenders. Marshalls is a cheesefest, afterall. The skaters know it. They are not likely to give it their all. Given Irina's health I will not be surprised if she decides to avoid the stressful long trip in a competition that is not that important.

Cohen usually has the advantage in these low pressure competitions (although last year's performance would negate that- I see it as an exception though). I don't think either Shizuka or Irina will have a strong showing at Marshalls, but it will be respectable. I would not base the worlds predictions on Marshalls. Of course after seeing Euros and USN we will have a better idea of what the final versions of the programs look like. I think it is OK to predict it this early though. It is fun to do that without having enough data.

Vash

R.D. · Nov 25, 2004

Given Irina's health I will not be surprised if she decides to avoid the stressful long trip in a competition that is not that important.

Actually, now that you mention that, it may be to her benefit to do so, and zero in on GPF (if she qualifies) or Russian nats if she's gonna be there. But she's already committed to doing it (I think her name is on the final list of skaters), and maybe she wants to do it...you never know.

Marshalls is a cheesefest, afterall. The skaters know it. They are not likely to give it their all.

Hmm...I'm not too sure about that. The fans may see it as a "cheesefest", but it's still a competition to the skaters, and they want to win. They likely won't have the determination of winning on the level of, let's say, Worlds or Nationals, but it's still a competition setting, with some very good competitors. I respectfully disagree with you here.

Vash01 · Nov 25, 2004

Red Dog said:
Hmm...I'm not too sure about that. The fans may see it as a "cheesefest", but it's still a competition to the skaters, and they want to win. They likely won't have the determination of winning on the level of, let's say, Worlds or Nationals, but it's still a competition setting, with some very good competitors. I respectfully disagree with you here.

What I meant was- they may not do their most difficult jump combinations in it. You are right that the skaters want to win it, no matter what competition it is.

sk8m8 · Nov 25, 2004

Interesting question. I think it is a POSSIBILITY for Irina to be the next World Champion. She has all the goods neccessary to win. That being said, last year, I saw Michelle skate in Atlanta and thought to myself, "this girl is more inspired than she was last year she'll be UNBEATABLE at worlds. Flash forward just a few weeks forward and Kwan has a totally uncharacteristic unfortunate performance, has a 2 Second overagage on her short (causing a .10 deduction from all the judges) leaving her in forth in a strangely Sarah Hughes Olympic Replay of someone beating else beating Shez AND winning the long straight out.
Oh yeat, then there was the fool in the tutu. It was not the same Olympic placement and Michelle took third.
Needless to say I'm sure MK was just glad to get out with a medal and her sanity after all that mess.

I do dearly hope that Irina skates and places well. At this point any medal would be a signal of her victorious return to eligible skating. However, Worlds is a place where all sorts of things happen....falls, injuries, broken blades, "costume malfunctions", illnesses, you name it. Let's pray for healthy skaters for christmas, shall we? I can't think of anything I'd rather have...happy holidays

SailorGalaxia518 · Nov 25, 2004

She has already practiced and landed a triple salchow-triple loop-triple loop combination in practice.

I don't know about you guys, but if she does this well in the competitions, especially at worlds, then I think she will be tough to beat.

She has great artistry, with a little bit of work still to do.

What a comeback

We will see how she will do against Shizuka at COR.

bronxgirl · Nov 25, 2004

As I've noted in the thread on Weir's quad, if it's landed in practice, it isn't real to me. Not until it's landed in competition, with real pressure do I believe that the person can truly do these jumps. We all know of too many practice skaters who look unbeatable, but only on the practice ice. Irina is a tough competitor, but she does have a hectic schedule, and a serious health condition. I wouldn't want to predict that this combo is something she can do any old time she wants to.

Eeyora · Nov 26, 2004

Irina's goal has been winning 2005 Worlds in her hometown for a while now. I think she is well on her way. She is certainly a contender. I think COP's is excellent for her. However it did good for Sasha as well. However we have not vseen Sasha compete under COP's yet this year and many believe the the scoring has changed a bit. Irina has many strengths. Her jumping technique is the best out of all the contenders and her spins are superb.

Irina can do a 3/3/3. However can she do it in a long program and still have energy for all of her other jumps.? I have a feeling if anybvody could it is Irina.

I don't believe Marshalls will give us an excellent prediction for worlds for several factors. It is under 6.0. They only skate one program: a format Sasha can thrive with. Irina and Shizuka will be exhausted.

Another reason Worlds is virtually impossible to predict is we haven't seen Michelle compete under COP's yet. We are all dying to see how she does. Will she improve her program to aq COP's format. I picture she will. Even if we don't see it at the Cheesefest and Nationals. However I won't go on forever on this issue because I know this thread is about Irina.

MidnightNess · Nov 26, 2004

it will be interesting to see if Irina's 3/3s should she attempt any will be ratified under COP, considering the heated debate over the years about whether or not the ones she's landed in the past were clean.

Does Irina have a realistic chance of winning W05?

Vash01

Mathman

mpal2

Joesitz (RIP)

R.D.

rtureck

wvgal57

R.D.

rtureck

R.D.

rtureck

R.D.

Vash01

R.D.

Vash01

sk8m8

SailorGalaxia518

bronxgirl

Eeyora

MidnightNess

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