2005 World Team

We all know how crucial the USA team's performance is at 2005 Worlds because it will determine the number of entries we can send to the Olympics. I would be interested to hear your thoughts about who might comprise the team. Who will really will give us our best shots? Can we get 3 entries in each discipline? I'm thinking:

Ladies

Kwan
Cohen
??? (Kirk? Czisny? Meissner? Corwin? Nikodinov?)

Men

Weir
Goebel
??? (Weiss? Jahnke? Savoie?)

Pairs

Inoue & Baldwin?
Scott & Duhlebon?
Orcher & Lucash?

Dance

Belbin & Agosto
Gregory & Petukhov
Galler-Rabinowitz & Mitchell?

What about Ann Patrice McDonough?

It's highly likely that we'll get 3 entries in ladies and mens again. I, personally, think that it's probable that B&A will place in the top 4 and G&P will place in the top 9, so USA could get 3 entries in dance for the Olympics. But there's almost no way that both I&B and the second team will place high enough to get 3 entries for Worlds 2006...I think I&B can place in the top 7 or 8, but the second team will probably be around 13 or 14. I guess we'll see after Nationals and 4CC what everyone's level of skating is at!

Arianne, Ann Patrice McDonough is not competing at Nationals this year and therefore can't make the World Team.

Arianne said:

What about Ann Patrice McDonough?

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AP, indeed. She may bounce the whole results around, and don't forget for one minute: Bebe Liang.

and Brauninger and Smith in Mens.

and there is Goodwin and Bommentre for Dance. (She's gorgeous :yes: ).

the whole question i "Who will explode?" and "Who will implode?"

Joe

I thought AP was not competing this season? She wasn't entered in any qualifying events....

IIRC, AP is out for the year. She is not listed on the US Nationals practice schedule.

I think Don and Hunt have a decent shot at the podium, even gold, at US Nationals; I agree, though, that US pairs will have a very tough time getting 3 teams to Olympics.

I think Meissner will be our 3rd lady & I'm pulling for Evan Lysacek to make the Mens team. I think, as well, that Don & Hunt are as good as Inoue & Baldwin but doubt that we will send more than 2 pairs to the Olympics. We have a shot at 3 dance teams going, tho unfortunately Belbin & Agosto will not be representing us at the '06 Olympics without an act of Congress.

Yikes! I forgot Lysacek and Brauninger! The Mens competition IS going to be exciting.

I agree, Don and Hunt have a good shot. I also like the young team of Vise & Kole but they may too green for 2005.

Interesting observation that we could get 3 teams in dance. Would that be a first?

I think Meissner will be our 3rd lady...

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I'm not sure if you're referring to 2005 or 2006, but I'm pretty sure that she isn't eligble for senior competition in 2005. I think I'm going to have to wait until Nationals before I speculate past Worlds 2005, though.

Just to clarify, the 2005 US Nationals is the competition occurring in Portland one month from now; 2006 US Nationals in St. Louis is the pre-Olympics showdown.

Based on last year's world placements, the US has three slots for women and men and two for pairs and dance. Here is the tentative list of competitors. Now for the early predictions without having seen Marshalls:

Dance
1. Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto
2. Melissa Gregory and Denis Petukhov
3-4. Loren Galler-Rabinowitz and David Mitchell OR Kendra Goodwin and Brett Bommentre

The easiest to determine who will get the two spots. Belbin and Agosto won their two Grand Prix events (Skate America and Cup of China), and Gregory and Petukhov have been well received internationally. The fight for third matters in giving us a hint of which dance team will go to the Olympics should Belbin not get US citizenship in time for Turin (which is likely).

Pairs
1. Rena Inoue and John Baldwin, Jr.
2. Jennifer Don and Jonathon Hunt
3. Katie Orscher and Garrett Lucash
4. Tiffany Scott and Philip Dulebon

Pretty easy. Even though the pairs competition will be the most error-filled in Portland, the international judges love Inoue and Baldwin. Orscher and Lucash and Scott and Dulebon fall behind Don and Hunt because they do not seem to project the confidence of the latter.

Men
1. Johnny Weir
2. Timothy Goebel
3-5. Ryan Jahnke OR Evan Lysacek OR Michael Weiss
6. Matt Savoie
7. Scott Smith

Probably easy to predict the top two. Only Goebel out of the lot has shown a dependable quad. If Weir can be the competitor we saw at Beijing and Paris, he should win with his solid jumps and good choreography. The rest (Jahnke, Lysacek, and Weiss) are too inconsistent to pick a front-runner; Janhnke and Weiss in particular with the triple axels, a bad thing when you have no quad. Savoie's days as a true contender are sadly up.

Ladies
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Angela Nikodinov OR Jennifer Kirk OR Amber Corwin OR Kimmie Meissner OR Alissa Czisny OR Katy Taylor

As with most of these, predicting the top two is simple. Kwan is usually solid enough to win Nationals, and Cohen has not been skating well all season. The two top questions are 1) How have Kwan's and Cohen's programs been changed to adapt to CoP's technical (i.e., 3-3) and choreographic requirements, and 2) who will be the third US lady. Fortunately only the top two placements at worlds matter, because I have little confidence for Nikodinov and Kirk to perform well for both phases even at Nationals yet alone Worlds, but one of these two will go simply because of age restrictions would prevent Meissner or Taylor from representing the US.

Note that Ann Patrice McDonough is not even listed to compete. Apparently turning 18 meant turning away from skating in addition to turning away from mother.

Originally posted by Joesitz
the whole question i [sic] "Who will explode?" and "Who will implode?"

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Exactly for absolute placements and for pairs, but ultimately as not important for world berths for the remaining disciplines for the top two competitors that will secure the Olympic spots.

insecureedge

What about Derrick Delmore? Do you think he will ever place at nationals?

2ndmark said:

Interesting observation that we could get 3 teams in dance. Would that be a first?

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A first since 1985 -- and long overdue! It's about time we're having a resurgance in this category!

I'm going with Weir, Goebel, and Weiss in Men's, tho I could see Jahnke slipping in there if one of those 3 messes up.

Ladies -- Kwan, Cohen, and ?????. Who'd ever thought we'd have such a (temporary IMO) depth problem? Unless Kirk or Nikidonov skate really well, my feeling is the 3rd slot is going to go to someone who's going to be a complete surprise. However, I can see Liang or Meissner getting it, too.

Pairs -- Inoue & Baldwin and Don & Hunt. (We only send 2, I believe, and probably will continue to do so for quite some time). I think Scott & Dulebohn are pretty much finished (their GP results this season did not inspire any confidence at all), and I personally find Orscher & Lucash way too rough around the edges.

Dance -- Belbin & Agosto and Gregory & Petukhov. I see Matthews & Zavozin in 3rd if they're going to the Seniors this year, as I believe they are.

Like Johnny had a tough 2003, he came on like a tornado last Nationals, I see Bebe (who had a tough 2004) come on like a tornado this Nationals. She's my pick for bronze.

Although 2006 is the preOlys Nats, 2005 is the preOlys Worlds.

Joe

Well I do hope that Corwin, Savoie, Lysacek, Jahnke, and Brauninger make the world team. As for the pairs, Orscher and Lucash all the way! They can do it!

2ndmark said:

We all know how crucial the USA team's performance is at 2005 Worlds because it will determine the number of entries we can send to the Olympics. I would be interested to hear your thoughts about who might comprise the team. Who will really will give us our best shots? Can we get 3 entries in each discipline? I'm thinking:

Ladies

Kwan
Cohen
??? (Kirk? Czisny? Meissner? Corwin? Nikodinov?)

Men

Weir
Goebel
??? (Weiss? Jahnke? Savoie?)

Pairs

Inoue & Baldwin?
Scott & Duhlebon?
Orcher & Lucash?

Dance

Belbin & Agosto
Gregory & Petukhov
Galler-Rabinowitz & Mitchell?

Click to expand...

IMHO, Michelle Kwan will own the US ladies' title for as long as she competes as an eligible skater. She blossoms for this competition and turns out great, great performances that nobody can come close to. I pick her to win the US title in 2005 and in 2006. Sasha Cohen will continue to be the perpetual wannabee champion who will continue to make enough mistakes to prevent her from winning gold at Nationals. She may well become the skater who wins the most silver medals in this championship. As for bronze, I think that either Meissner or Kirk will win this medal. Kirk has a lot of international experience, but she has an undistinguished record at Worlds - withdrawal from injuries and low finishes due to numerous mistakes. I doubt if the judges would give her the edge over Meissner because she has competed at Worlds. All IMHO!

I think Johnny Weir will win Nationals for as long as he competes as an eligible skater. He has "the look" (long hair notwithstanding!) of a champion, with great jumps, speed, choreography, and I expect him to reach the podium at Worlds and at the Olympics. Hopefully, he'll have the quad on hand. Timothy Goebel continues to battle injuries, so he's not guaranteed to make the World team next year, but I think he will skate well enough to win silver or bronze. The other medal, I hope (!) will be won by Ryan Jahnke. IMHO, Michael Weiss won't make the World team this time around - too many errors, as usual.

The ice dance competition will be dominated by Tanith Belbin/Ben Agosto. All of the other teams will be far behind. Frankly, I think B & A are the only US ice dance team that is competitive at the World level.

The pairs competition has been a real disappointment in recent years, with so many error-laden performances. While I expect Rena Inoue and John Baldwin to retain their title, I certainly hope they won't win in another splatfest. I've never been impressed with Scott and Dulebohn, who consistently make sloppy mistakes, after so many years of skating together. Sorry, not to be critical!

That all being said, I would expect the US to send three women to the Olympics and possibly three men - definitely two men. Two pairs would be the limit, as well as two ice dance teams.

All IMHO, of course.

SkateFan, about Sasha, based on last year's near miss I think she might win a World or even an Olympic championship before she wins a U.S. Nationals.

MM

Based on Sasha's performance at Marshall's, I don't think a World or Olympic title will be in her future. From the descriptions I've read of her skate, she was clearly held up by the judges. Splasha still doesn't seem to be able to be clean when she need's it the most, and there are too many other skaters (Irina, Arakawa, and so many other Japanese ladies, and I won't give up hope for Michelle) who can compete for the OGM

"Splasha" Don't intend to offend. I think Sasha's a great skater; she's just got some kind of block that prevents her from performing 2 TOTALLY clean programs when a 'Real' championship (i.e US Nats, Worlds, Olys) is on the line. It seems like ,when she's in Gold medal contention, Sasha inevitably flub something she normally does in her sleep.

Did everyone forget Mike Weiss in the men's division. He could definitely be on the US's World team.

2ndmark said:

Ladies

Kwan
Cohen
??? (Kirk? Czisny? Meissner? Corwin? Nikodinov?)

Men

Weir
Goebel
??? (Weiss? Jahnke? Savoie?)

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I'm sure that's exactly how it's going to go down. It's only the third place spots that are the mystery here. (Who thinks Kwan isn't going to win?? Who thinks Kwan or Cohen will be off the podium???)

Kirk got the best of the fight last time...I see either her or Corwin winning out here.

bronxgirl said:

Based on Sasha's performance at Marshall's, I don't think a World or Olympic title will be in her future. From the descriptions I've read of her skate, she was clearly held up by the judges. Splasha still doesn't seem to be able to be clean when she need's it the most, and there are too many other skaters (Irina, Arakawa, and so many other Japanese ladies, and I won't give up hope for Michelle) who can compete for the OGM

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ITA. Let me be more pessimistic (sp) and say I don't think she'll even win another world medal this year. And the pressure of the Olympics is so intense that she ought to just forget about that one.

(P.S. the description of her performance at Marshall's is kind of a mini-spoiler!)

Splasha...