2005 World Team
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World Team Predictions
Ladies: Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen and Amber Corwin.
Men: Johnny Weir, Tim Goebel and Ryan Jahnke.
Pairs: Inoue/Baldwin; Orsher/Lukash
Dance: Belbin/Agosto; Gregory/Petukov
Michael Weiss needs the skate of his career to date to qualify ahead of the artistically better Jahnke, especially if RJ hits his 3 axel jumps. Amber can outjump Angela and Jenny, who tend to make errors in their LPs. Sasha continues to fall in her programs, but should be respectable in her programs at Nationals. Who knows what she will do in the actual competition. I think all the other predictions are safe ones.
Ladies: Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen and Amber Corwin.
Men: Johnny Weir, Tim Goebel and Ryan Jahnke.
Pairs: Inoue/Baldwin; Orsher/Lukash
Dance: Belbin/Agosto; Gregory/Petukov
Michael Weiss needs the skate of his career to date to qualify ahead of the artistically better Jahnke, especially if RJ hits his 3 axel jumps. Amber can outjump Angela and Jenny, who tend to make errors in their LPs. Sasha continues to fall in her programs, but should be respectable in her programs at Nationals. Who knows what she will do in the actual competition. I think all the other predictions are safe ones.
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- Jul 11, 2003
For one thing, I believe the Nats are on the 6.0 system. This system will favor Sasha because of her extroadinary line and overall dynamic presentation. I don't believe falls are counted against the presentation scores of any top skater from other competitions I have seeen except for Kwan. Sasha's technical score, btw, will not be deducted that much for the falls.
Secondly, I think the power of the Association which decides the outcome of who goes to the Worlds will select Sasha among the three eligible. I think the selection of the three in USA, Japan, Russia (two?), Canada (two?) has already been decided by their respective Federations, unless those prechosen have a really bad meltdown.
I see Kwan, Cohen and ?? for USA (Hopefully, Bebe)
I see Arakawa, Ando and ?? for Japan (Hopefully, Fumie)
I see Slutskaya and Volchkova
I see Phaneuf and Rochette
Joe
Secondly, I think the power of the Association which decides the outcome of who goes to the Worlds will select Sasha among the three eligible. I think the selection of the three in USA, Japan, Russia (two?), Canada (two?) has already been decided by their respective Federations, unless those prechosen have a really bad meltdown.
I see Kwan, Cohen and ?? for USA (Hopefully, Bebe)
I see Arakawa, Ando and ?? for Japan (Hopefully, Fumie)
I see Slutskaya and Volchkova
I see Phaneuf and Rochette
Joe
Dennis will get his citizenship in time for the Olympics.
I think Mike Weiss will get that 3rd spot over Ryan. Mike has a shaky triple axel and a two footed quad jump but Ryan doesn't even have either of those jumps (I haven't seen Ryan land a triple axel in the GP and he's not even close to landing a quad). Plus Ryan has really messy jump landings with no flow out. I think that guy needs to go to Richard Callaghan to learn how to jump (or maybe Mike needs to make that move to get consistency). I think that with Goebel, Mike and Johnny, all three guys can place in the top 10 and if someone has a meltdown, two will get the points needed for 3 guys in the Olympics.
I think that Ryan might be lucky if he places 15th at Worlds. That puts a lot of pressure on the other two guys.
I think Mike Weiss will get that 3rd spot over Ryan. Mike has a shaky triple axel and a two footed quad jump but Ryan doesn't even have either of those jumps (I haven't seen Ryan land a triple axel in the GP and he's not even close to landing a quad). Plus Ryan has really messy jump landings with no flow out. I think that guy needs to go to Richard Callaghan to learn how to jump (or maybe Mike needs to make that move to get consistency). I think that with Goebel, Mike and Johnny, all three guys can place in the top 10 and if someone has a meltdown, two will get the points needed for 3 guys in the Olympics.
I think that Ryan might be lucky if he places 15th at Worlds. That puts a lot of pressure on the other two guys.
I agree with Soogar - unless Weiss has a complete and total meltdown, I can't imagine him not being on the World team. He has the experience and track record that make him a much safer bet than any of the other possibilities. Like him or not, Weiss is the reason we've been able to send 3 men to Worlds for the past few years. He may not always land on the podium, but he places well enough for the team.
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- Aug 4, 2003
Ryab landed a bunch (three?) triple Axels at Skate Canada.soogar said:
Men:
1. Johnny Weir
2. Tim Goebel
3. Up for grabs. Probably between Michael Weiss and Ryan Jahnke. Dark horse-Evan Lyasack
Ladies:
Since the top two US ladies didn't do the Grand Prix, this is just based on the cheesefests.
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Sasha Cohen-yes she has been having a rough season; but based on her previous scores she should have no problem making to the US podium
3. Up for grabs. My first guess would be Jenny Kirk. After that possible bronze medalists could include Angela N. and Amber Cowin. Possible dark horses include Kimmie Meisinger and Jane Bugaeva.
Pairs:
1. I&B
2. Up for grabs. IMO it is between O&L and D&H. Before this season, I would have to say that O&L are the stronger team (as well as they should be-since that they have had more international experience that D&H), but the Grand Prix was not a good experience for O&L. D&H did better than I expected in the Grand Prix, but still had some trouble with the long progams. I think O&L have a more difficult program; but D&H have been performing better.
3. Either O&L or D&H, possible dark horse includes Scott & Dulebon. S&D have had a rough season and have seemed to lose ground. However, they did improve in the LP at Cup of Russia. Possible dark-dark horse
Vise & Kole.
Dance:
B&A
2. G&P
3. Up for grabs. Between Goodwin & Geller-Rabinowitz (and their partners of course)
1. Johnny Weir
2. Tim Goebel
3. Up for grabs. Probably between Michael Weiss and Ryan Jahnke. Dark horse-Evan Lyasack
Ladies:
Since the top two US ladies didn't do the Grand Prix, this is just based on the cheesefests.
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Sasha Cohen-yes she has been having a rough season; but based on her previous scores she should have no problem making to the US podium
3. Up for grabs. My first guess would be Jenny Kirk. After that possible bronze medalists could include Angela N. and Amber Cowin. Possible dark horses include Kimmie Meisinger and Jane Bugaeva.
Pairs:
1. I&B
2. Up for grabs. IMO it is between O&L and D&H. Before this season, I would have to say that O&L are the stronger team (as well as they should be-since that they have had more international experience that D&H), but the Grand Prix was not a good experience for O&L. D&H did better than I expected in the Grand Prix, but still had some trouble with the long progams. I think O&L have a more difficult program; but D&H have been performing better.
3. Either O&L or D&H, possible dark horse includes Scott & Dulebon. S&D have had a rough season and have seemed to lose ground. However, they did improve in the LP at Cup of Russia. Possible dark-dark horse
Vise & Kole.Dance:
B&A
2. G&P
3. Up for grabs. Between Goodwin & Geller-Rabinowitz (and their partners of course)
- Joined
- Jul 28, 2003
I believe US can only send 2 teams for each of those two disciplines (B&A were 5th, and G&P something like 11th, which makes for a sum less than 13, meaning that only 2 teams go on).lulu said:Pairs:
1. I&B
2. Up for grabs. IMO it is between O&L and D&H. Before this season, I would have to say that O&L are the stronger team (as well as they should be-since that they have had more international experience that D&H), but the Grand Prix was not a good experience for O&L. D&H did better than I expected in the Grand Prix, but still had some trouble with the long progams. I think O&L have a more difficult program; but D&H have been performing better.
3. Either O&L or D&H, possible dark horse includes Scott & Dulebon. S&D have had a rough season and have seemed to lose ground. However, they did improve in the LP at Cup of Russia. Possible dark-dark horse
Dance:
B&A
2. G&P
3. Up for grabs. Between Goodwin & Geller-Rabinowitz (and their partners of course)
As for the dark horses in US dance, I'd say Mattews & Zavozin. They've just won Junior GPF, and they are great! I wonder if they're skating in Juniors or Seniors for Nationals this year.
Ptichka said:
You're right the US can only send 2 dance and pairs; I was just doing the top 3.
I haven't seen M&Z skate yet, but from the reviews they are certainly a team to look out for in the future. If they are staying in Juniors-they would be my first choice for National Gold.
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That wouldn't be a bad pick, since they won Junior Dance last year for the second time! They're moving up to Seniors this year. Junior Dance is pretty much Pratt/Gilles' to lose at this point, since their main competition, Davis/White withdrew from Mids when he broke his leg.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Yes, I think they all could be a contender for bronze. (Sorry the Powers that be have reserved the gold and silver.)Arianne said:
Yebin Mok
Jenny Kirk
Bebe Liang
Kimmie Meissner
Katy Taylor
Alicia Cizny
Amber Corwin
Angela Nikidinov
Anyone I left out?
It's not just picking your choice for bronze, it is also who will be in the glorious final six for the LP? The TV will be live so it is possible to see six skate.
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- Aug 5, 2003
I refuse to give up hope on Scott Smith. Apparantly he's attempting two quads, and if he can pull that off and skate cleanly for the rest of it, he has a great chance of ousting Weiss (who I've only ever seen to a clean quad ONCE in competition.)
Kimmie won't be able to go to Worlds due to her age. Isn't this going to be Kimmie's first senior trip to Nats? Were there other skaters who made the podium in their first outing to Nats? I know she has the goods but will USFSA really put a first timer on the podium who haven't been tested yet except for the junior comps and one Campbell's?
First Time Out
Tara Lipinski got a bronze at Nats in 1996 -- her first appearance -- but she was of age to go to Seniors. Sasha got a silver in her first Nat appearance (2000); due to her age, she could only go to Senior Worlds if she medaled at Juniors -- and she didn't medal. In 1999, Naomi Nari Nam got on the podium with a silver, even though she was too young to go to Junior Worlds, let alone too young for Seniors. So, if Kimmie skates well enough to make the podium, there is a good chance that she will medal, even though she can't go to Senior Worlds.
Tara Lipinski got a bronze at Nats in 1996 -- her first appearance -- but she was of age to go to Seniors. Sasha got a silver in her first Nat appearance (2000); due to her age, she could only go to Senior Worlds if she medaled at Juniors -- and she didn't medal. In 1999, Naomi Nari Nam got on the podium with a silver, even though she was too young to go to Junior Worlds, let alone too young for Seniors. So, if Kimmie skates well enough to make the podium, there is a good chance that she will medal, even though she can't go to Senior Worlds.
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- Jul 11, 2003
There's no lock on the podium for US Men.elingrace4eva said:
Weir
Weiss
Goeble
Savoie
Lysacek
Jahnke
Smith
Brauninger
Any of the Juniors skating in this group?
Pick the six you think you will see on TV and not necesarily your favorites.
Joe
Arianne said:
Mok's had to deal with various injuries for the past 2 seasons and, based on her performances at Regionals & Sectionals this fall, is not close to her 2003 Nationals form when she placed 6th (her highest finish to date) -- here's a Golden Skate article about her following SWP Regionals in October: http://www.goldenskate.com/articles/2004/101904.shtml
Bebe Liang won Pacific Coasts but is also recovering from injury and was only able to land 2 clean triples (3F-2T, 3T-2T) in her FS at Sectionals. If she's healthy, I expect her to do better at Nationals, though.
Jane Bugaeva (9th in her senior national debut last year--the highest of all the "rookies") landed 7 triples in her winning FS at Easterns, and so I would include her in any list of contendors! You can watch her James Bond medley FS, as well as Emily Hughes' good performance (2nd place), during the Easterns rebroadcast on CN8 on Saturday, December 11, from 1:30-3:30 pm Eastern. CN8 is a local cable station along the east coast in the Mid-Atlantic and New England Areas. You can also watch live streaming video on the station's website: http://www.cn8.tv/ (click on "CN8 LIVE!" link on the left hand side).
Jordan Brauninger (10th in his senior national debut last year) has been dealing with a stress fracture in his landing leg -- see this week's local article on him: http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041207/NEWS0103/412070341/1059/NEWS01
Derrick Delmore, Braden Overett and Nicholas LaRoche all skated very well to win Easterns, Mids, and Coasts, respectively.
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