Sasha Cohen - Premature Crowning?

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 22, 2004

Skatefan - Don't forget Cohen won the SP by all judges in last year's nats. During the LP, Kwan skated clean; Sasha fell or stumbled (I forget). That is the problem with Sasha - the mistakes in the LP (same as in Dortmund). Once the clean skate comes, Sasha will win. The judges will not hold her back.

Joe

Kuchana · Dec 22, 2004

Joesitz said:
Skatefan - Don't forget Cohen won the SP by all judges in last year's nats. During the LP, Kwan skated clean; Sasha fell or stumbled (I forget). That is the problem with Sasha - the mistakes in the LP (same as in Dortmund). Once the clean skate comes, Sasha will win. The judges will not hold her back.

Joe

What if both ladies skate clean?

euterpe · Dec 22, 2004

Sasha skated a clean SP at 2004 Nationals and Kwan had a stumble. But Sasha wasn't placed first by all the judges; Jenny Kirk got one first place ordinal for her "Chicago" program.

Sasha fell on one jump in the FS and badly double-footed another, and her performance was lackluster even before the fall, because she was tense and tight. Yet one judge gave her a 6.0 for presentation just the same. But the 2004 Sasha had won Campbell's, 3 GP gold medals and a silver at the GPF.

What will weigh against Sasha this year is that she had a substandard performance at Campbell's, was injured and had to sit out the GP, and performed poorly at Marshall's. If Sasha doesn't skate perfectly at Nationals, the judges won't be eager to send her to Worlds as US Champion when her ability to skate to her potential is in question.

Linny · Dec 22, 2004

Clean

If they all skate clean, then theoretically, it will go to the skater who had the extra "punch". This is the 6.0 system. Based on the programs we've seen so far from MK and SC, the MK program has more "punch". Even if it were skated clean, the SC program was front loaded and not particularly zippy.

Remember when MK, SC, JK AND AN all skated clean at Nationals? Wasn't that, like, totally amazing? What year was that? Is my memory correct in that they all skated clean?

Linny

lavender · Dec 22, 2004

What year did Sasha skate clean at Nationals?

Linny · Dec 22, 2004

Can't Remember

I can't remember... there was a year when it seemed like each program was more beautiful than the last. In the end, Angela was in 4th and got left off the Olympic team... so it must have been right before the last Olys. So, it would have been 1-MK, 2-SC, 3-SH, 4-AN....

Plu-eze, someone, refresh my memory!

Linny

Skate Sandee · Dec 22, 2004

The edge goes to...

If they both skate clean, I think the judges would give it to Kwan. I'd even give Kwan a one jump advantage over Cohen. But certainly not THREE.

I too sense that Sasha's waffling of late (another infamous switch of coaches) and her past inconsistency has dulled some of the more exuberant US judges that have been itching to reward her in the past. Michelle is a proven reliable (if a bit predictable) skater that statistically skates well under pressure at World competitions (think Mr. Tutu Streaker 2004, think boot falling apart 2001). Plus history is on Kwan's side. She's going for a record-tying 9th National title. People love records. So if they skate relatively the same, I think the edge goes to Kwan

chuckm · Dec 22, 2004

Linny said:
I can't remember... there was a year when it seemed like each program was more beautiful than the last. In the end, Angela was in 4th and got left off the Olympic team... so it must have been right before the last Olys. So, it would have been 1-MK, 2-SC, 3-SH, 4-AN....

Plu-eze, someone, refresh my memory!

Linny

It was 2002 Nationals. All four ladies skated beautifully in the SP. In the FS, Kwan and Cohen skated very well (Sasha had only minor mistakes), but Sarah was slow and a little hesitant, and she finished 3rd behind the other two. Angela did the usual, doubling jumps in the FS and finished 4th, crying her eyes out.

R.D. · Dec 22, 2004

Skate Sandee said:
If they both skate clean, I think the judges would give it to Kwan. I'd even give Kwan a one jump advantage over Cohen. But certainly not THREE.

I too sense that Sasha's waffling of late (another infamous switch of coaches) and her past inconsistency has dulled some of the more exuberant US judges that have been itching to reward her in the past. Michelle is a proven reliable (if a bit predictable) skater that statistically skates well under pressure at World competitions (think Mr. Tutu Streaker 2004, think boot falling apart 2001). Plus history is on Kwan's side. She's going for a record-tying 9th National title. People love records. So if they skate relatively the same, I think the edge goes to Kwan

I pretty much agree. I think the edge will be given to Kwan in a close race, if they are both on. IN A CLOSE RACE, in order for Cohen to win she has to have that extra spark- and here's the key- Kwan has to be MISSING her spark. If they both have their spark I still think it will be given to MK. I still think Kwan is heavily favored here. And if history repeats itself, Kwan will have a top skate that will be very difficult to beat.

This is an ideal situation, of course, which has about 0.01% chance of actually happening. :agree:

Mathman · Dec 23, 2004

This is probably naive, but I don't see any reason why the U.S. judges would come into a contest predisposed to favor Michelle or Sasha one over the other. For that matter, if someone else skates well I do not see any advantage to USFS to hold that skater down.

Sometimes top skaters are held up at Nationals because we want to send our strongest team to Worlds with a ringing endorsement. But more often I think it is because the top skaters are the top skaters. A mediocre skate from a mega-champion like Michelle is demonstably better than a great skate from almost anyone else, without any subjectivity or favoritism needed.

Mathman

Skate Sandee · Dec 23, 2004

Mathman said:
This is probably naive, but I don't see any reason why the U.S. judges would come into a contest predisposed to favor Michelle or Sasha one over the other. For that matter, if someone else skates well I do not see any advantage to USFS to hold that skater down.

Mathman

You're right to an extent I think. Most top skaters that earn a berth at Worlds truly earn it and need no extra help from the judges. But I think it's naive to think that the judges 100% judge "in the moment". I think it's more of a 80% in the moment, 20% looking ahead. Skating is a business as well as a sport. The bottom line for ANY federation is to send the team to Worlds that has the best chance of bringing in the best results and securing those all important spots (especially this year) for Worlds and Olympics.

A known, reliable champion can have an off night at Nationals. A wildly inconsistent skater can have a bright moment at Nationals that is better than a known champion that skated poorly in that one moment. But history has shown us that often the champion having an off night is given the benefit of the doubt, where an inconsistent skater that has a perfect performance is often not given that same benefit of the doubt. JMHO

SkateFan4Life · Dec 23, 2004

Joesitz said:
Skatefan - Don't forget Cohen won the SP by all judges in last year's nats. During the LP, Kwan skated clean; Sasha fell or stumbled (I forget). That is the problem with Sasha - the mistakes in the LP (same as in Dortmund). Once the clean skate comes, Sasha will win. The judges will not hold her back.

Joe

Right. Cohen skated a very strong SP in last year's Nationals, while Kwan stumbled on her double axel in her SP and finished after her music had stopped.
In the LP, Kwan was outstanding, while Cohen fell on her triple toe in the middle of her program and then two-footed a triple lutz.

Cohen is "queen of the short program", but she hasn't yet been able to skate a clean long program - or at least skate a LP that's better than the rest of the field.

Hikaru · Dec 23, 2004

mpal2 I would say Michelle has a higher visibility right now than Sasha when you're talking about the general public. Longevity and a high success rate go a long way when it comes to recognition.[/QUOTE said:
I agree. Michelle is more known to the general audience, whereas Sasha is known in the circles of fans of figure skating. I mean, Michelle has even been mention in sitcoms and tv series such as Friends and Gilmore Girls, because the general audience knows who she is and what she has done, regardless of whatever they know about figure skating.

Sasha Cohen - Premature Crowning?

Joesitz (RIP)

Kuchana

euterpe

Linny

lavender

Linny

Skate Sandee

chuckm

R.D.

Mathman

Skate Sandee

SkateFan4Life

Guest

Hikaru

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