Worlds Predictions

ceg15 · Dec 28, 2004

Originally posted by Reddog: " I dunno, Suguri's been kinda out there these past few months. Other than participance in a couple GP events, she hasn't been doing much...I won't count her out but I won't expect a whole lot out of her either. She seems to have kind of fizzled right now. "

I agree, she had it there for ahwile but now seems to have fizzled. I saw her live at Skate Canada. I forget her result but I do know that it wasn't that good. She is such a huge, strong jumper though, it is amazing and her artistry has improved. I hope she comes out of her fizzling stage soon, she could work on her consistency and she'ss be right back up there with the rest. I don't know what or she attended another grand prix event this year.

ceg15 · Dec 28, 2004

Originally posted by Reddog: "In fact, the only person I'm openly writing off this year is Cohen."

I'll bet anything that Sasha is working her butt off this year and will come to worlds full of fire and determination. You might be surprised at how she does....

R.D. · Dec 28, 2004

ceg15 said:
I'll bet anything that Sasha is working her butt off this year and will come to worlds full of fire and determination. You might be surprised at how she does....

And then, because of her strong determination to win, she lets that get in her way, and stiffens in the freeskate, complete with possibly a fall or stumble.

ceg15 · Dec 28, 2004

And then, because of her strong determination to win, she lets that get in her way, and stiffens in the freeskate, complete with possibly a fall or stumble.

You never know! I admire her determination. I don't think it's that that will or has been in her way. She just needs to really focus and she can pull it off and I havea feeling she will! :biggrin:

doubleaxelcm · Dec 28, 2004

I don't know whether to agree with Red Dog or ceg15. The thing is Sasha's will and determination will either drive her up the standings or down them. Sasha wins and loses competitions mentally, not physically. She just has to keep her mind in check. In my opinion it is her compeition to lose. If her and Michelle both had completely clean skates technically I think Sasha would win because the CoP system caters to her style of skating.

ceg15 · Dec 28, 2004

Ditto doubl axelcm!

I don't know whether to agree with Red Dog or ceg15. The thing is Sasha's will and determination will either drive her up the standings or down them. Sasha wins and loses competitions mentally, not physically. She just has to keep her mind in check. In my opinion it is her compeition to lose. If her and Michelle both had completely clean skates technically I think Sasha would win because the CoP system caters to her style of skating.

bronxgirl · Dec 28, 2004

We don't know if the COP will cater to Michelle since she's never skated under the COP in competition. She's certainly aware of the challenges the COP will present, and has been seeking advice as to how to deal with it. And Sasha has not skated under the COP this year, so again, it's hard to know if she will receive the same generous scores she received last year.

R.D. · Dec 28, 2004

ceg15 said:
You never know! I admire her determination. I don't think it's that that will or has been in her way. She just needs to really focus and she can pull it off and I havea feeling she will!

I guess in one way you could be right, and that is anything can happen. However, I really think the odds are against Cohen at this point. Of course, I could be proven wrong. I mean, some people actually DO win the lottery :rofl:

The thing is Sasha's will and determination will either drive her up the standings or down them. Sasha wins and loses competitions mentally, not physically. She just has to keep her mind in check. In my opinion it is her compeition to lose. If her and Michelle both had completely clean skates technically I think Sasha would win because the CoP system caters to her style of skating.

I disagree with you that it is Cohen's competition to lose - I think it is Kwan's competition to lose. I agree with bronxgirl that there is no way of knowing how MK will be scored (under the code of points). However, it doesn't matter what judging system is used if it turns out that others clearly out-skate Cohen (or Kwan for that matter), and she stumbles or falls. Also, Cohen can not fall and still not be good enough to win or even get 2nd or 3rd place.

Off topic: I hope I get my wish for a second year in a row: that we have a new world champ (this doesn't include Cohen or Kwan BTW) and irina has already won one, so she's not included either.

ceg15 · Dec 28, 2004

I agree that the odds are against her, but as you said, anything can happen!

Kuchana · Dec 29, 2004

Red Dog said:
I guess in one way you could be right, and that is anything can happen. However, I really think the odds are against Cohen at this point. Of course, I could be proven wrong. I mean, some people actually DO win the lottery

LOL I couldn't help but chuckle when I read your comment above

True some people actually do win the lottery but in Sasha's case she'd actually have to have the skate of her life in order to win and if Michelle messes up horribly. Neither I don't see and given Sasha's history, the odds are definitely against her. If both ladies skated clean, I believe a clean Michelle will beat a clean Sasha.

Red Dog said:
Off topic: I hope I get my wish for a second year in a row: that we have a new world champ (this doesn't include Cohen or Kwan BTW) and irina has already won one, so she's not included either.

Is there anyone in mind that you do want to win other than Kwan, Irina, or Cohen?

ceg15 · Dec 29, 2004

in Sasha's case she'd actually have to have the skate of her life in order to win and if Michelle messes up horribly. Neither I don't see and given Sasha's history, the odds are definitely against her. If both ladies skated clean, I believe a clean Michelle will beat a clean Sasha.

Agreed!

Joesitz (RIP) · Dec 29, 2004

Keep you eye on Arakawa, Red Dog. She gets better and better until she wins at Worlds.

Joe

R.D. · Dec 29, 2004

Kuchana said:
True some people actually do win the lottery but in Sasha's case she'd actually have to have the skate of her life in order to win and if Michelle messes up horribly. Neither I don't see and given Sasha's history, the odds are definitely against her. If both ladies skated clean, I believe a clean Michelle will beat a clean Sasha.

I definitely agree with that.

Kuchana said:
Is there anyone in mind that you do want to win other than Kwan, Irina, or Cohen?

Not really. I just want a shocker like what happened last year with Arakawa

Keep you eye on Arakawa, Red Dog. She gets better and better until she wins at Worlds.

We'll see. Right now she's having some problems. But if she gets them resolved I'd definitely consider her a strong contender.

ceg15 · Dec 30, 2004

I think that Arakawa is a very storng contendor. It's funny, a shocking/surprise winner would be cool but I can't see enough of the top skaters(Irina, Michelle, Sasha, Shizuka and the rest) messing up enough to even allow a surprise finish. There's a strong field of strong contedors and I'm afraid that I think they've blocked the way of any surprise finish.

R.D. · Dec 30, 2004

ceg15 said:
I think that Arakawa is a very storng contendor. It's funny, a shocking/surprise winner would be cool but I can't see enough of the top skaters(Irina, Michelle, Sasha, Shizuka and the rest) messing up enough to even allow a surprise finish. There's a strong field of strong contedors and I'm afraid that I think they've blocked the way of any surprise finish.

(emphasis added by me)

I think any skater winning outside of those four would be a "surprise winner". Heck, IMO I'd even consider Cohen a surprise winner!

ceg15 · Dec 31, 2004

I think any skater winning outside of those four would be a "surprise winner". Heck, IMO I'd even consider Cohen a surprise winner!

Yes I agree-haha. But what I measn is can you see any of those four messing up so bad that a surprise winner could sneak in and take the title?

curious · Dec 31, 2004

is irina's comp to lose I don't give arakawa alot of chances the way she is skating.

R.D. · Dec 31, 2004

ceg15 said:
Yes I agree-haha. But what I measn is can you see any of those four messing up so bad that a surprise winner could sneak in and take the title?

Actually, not really...you may have a point there. In order I'd rank the possibility of a winner: 1)Slutskaya, 2) Arakawa (if she fixes up her troubles) 3) Kwan and 4) Cohen. However, it's possible that someone else could sneak in if one of the four (like Cohen for example) messes up and opens the door for them to break through. I mean, was anyone REALLY putting Arakawa at or near the top of their prediction lists last year?

ceg15 · Jan 1, 2005

Originally posted by Red Dog: Actually, not really...you may have a point there. In order I'd rank the possibility of a winner: 1)Slutskaya, 2) Arakawa (if she fixes up her troubles) 3) Kwan and 4) Cohen. However, it's possible that someone else could sneak in if one of the four (like Cohen for example) messes up and opens the door for them to break through. I mean, was anyone REALLY putting Arakawa at or near the top of their prediction lists last year?

Yes, that's how I'd put it too but maybe Kwan in 2nd and Arawaka in 3rd. I'm pretty sure that Slutskaya and Kwan will take top two, it's just a matter or 3rd and 4th and Arawaka and Cohen. No I definitely agree, nobody was expecting Arakawa to win last year. But because she did, she has made our "top 4" list. I cannot wait to see Worlds.....this is going to be very interesting. I can't decide who I want to be on the podium more though(for 3rd)-Cohen or Arakawa(assuming Michelle and Irina take 2nd and 1st.) Yes if even one of the four like you said for example Cohen messes up someone could sneak through. But I think we'll definitely be seeing alot of clean performances from the top 4. But you're right if even just one messes up a surprise skater could sneak through....

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 1, 2005

If we take predictions seriously, we have to base our predictions on something other than favorites. We all loved that race horse during the Triple Crown and we were hoping he would win the Belmont. Hope is different than predicting.

What we know about the gang of 4:

Slutskaya is really showing she knows what the CoP is all about;

Arakawa is in a bad slump but athletes in slumps is not uncommon occurrence. Her program is based on TT who knows CoP and it has all the makings of high scorres. It's up to her to turn on Dortmund again.

Cohen had CoP experience last year in GPs but the GPs were just for testing. TT and Robin would know how the CoP works but they are no longer part of the team. Although he hasn't been coaching all that much lately, he is no dummy and he will give her what she needs. She does have a nice program already catered for the CoP. Will she do it?

Kwan whom I see in her twighlight years, is apparently working on the CoP from some reports I've read despite the fact that little is really known about her. She keeps to herself and that is her style. I can only wait to see how the CoP treats her. She'll be 'making a statement' as the catch phrase goes, even if there is no podium.

The two other Japanese ladies and the 1 Russian lady are probably the most interesting to speculate about. I would include Rochette and Poykio to in that top 10 group. Maybe Sebastyen too.

So no real prediction for me. At this point I would choose Slutskaya for the win, but hey, there's a US Nats coming soon. Let's see what the American divas do.

Joe

Worlds Predictions

ceg15

ceg15

R.D.

ceg15

doubleaxelcm

ceg15

bronxgirl

R.D.

ceg15

Kuchana

ceg15

Joesitz (RIP)

R.D.

ceg15

R.D.

ceg15

curious

R.D.

ceg15

Joesitz (RIP)

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