Worlds Predictions

Fascinating to read the predictions. I'm getting so excited about the competition and can't wait till it starts! I feel like, especially with the ladies, the field is wide open and anything could happen. I don't by any means feel Irina has the gold locked up--although she undeniably has a huge advantage with Worlds in Moscow, she'll have to skate much better than at Russians and Europeans, and OgreMage is right that she spent an awful lot of political capital at Europeans.

I can't really make any predictions, because the fact is I was totally wrong with my predictions for last year's Worlds. (I thought Shizuka would come in around sixth or eighth--and she won!)

But I do have some hunches. I think that:

--Michelle will do better than some people expect
--Joannie is a real threat to medal and possibly even win (especially if everyone else tanks)
--Sasha will not be a huge factor
--Miki may be the top-scoring Japanese lady, ahead of Shizuka

If I had to go out on a limb and make a totally wild guess, I might guess the following:

--Joannie
--Michelle
--Miki

I know it would be a huge upset for Joannie to win the gold, but she has the following in her favor:

--A fairly dependable triple/triple
--The ability, proven this season, to land a 6-triple program
--Arguably the best program and choreography of all the ladies
--Relatively low pressure and expectation
--A lot of ambition, plus momentum from a strong season

As with Shizuka last year, all that *could* potentially set the stage for a win. It's a real long shot, but every now and then someone does come out of nowhere to win Worlds. Think Oksana in 1993, Tara in 1997, even Shizuka last year. None of them were expected to win. So you never know.

Whatever happens, I think it will be a great competition!!

ditzysk8r said:

Irina should do well, if she can land the jumps. She has an excellently choreographed program, and the audience will be behind her, since she's coming back from illness this year. Go Irina!

Sasha will be the top American, as COP is being used, and with her spins, spirals, and choreography, her components score will be sky-high!

If MK does the same program she did at Nationals, unless the judges are completely asleep, she's not going to fare well under COP. She'd better try adding a little choreography and working on those spins ( )

Shizuka is the reigning World Champion, and the judges will remember that. We know she's got the choreography, so hopefully she will land the 3/3's!

So my prediction for ladies is:
1. Irina/Sasha
2. Kwan/Shiz
3. Kwan/Shiz

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Glad you cracked yourself up. Did you watch Nationals? Michelle beat Sasha.
What makes you think Michelle will not have improved upon her program while Sasha will have? How many World titles does she have. What will Sasha do that will place her in a strong position to win gold? I predict Sasha will finish off the podium. Michelle will finish on.

I think Shiz deserved to win to win last year, despite the cheated 3/3s. Unless she can fully rotate them this year, however, she won't get credit. Irina may be skating on her home turf but she is still not recovered from her illness and has to get through two long and one short program.

I think Michelle willl surprise a lot of people and do very well. I think Fumie will do likewise. Rochette will do really well this year and build up strong momentum for next.

Frontrunners

i agree with Joesitz that you can never count Sasha out, especially now that CoP has been instituted. She will fare well under this new system. But the truth is, none of the top women can be counted out for a number of reasons. irina will be inspired to skate her best because she is skating in front of a home crowd and she has upped her game considerably, Shizuka is supposedly practicing better than she has all season, Michelle is landing triple/triples with consistency in practice and is known for consistency in World Championships, Sasha is practicing well and is back with her original coach, and Rochette has done well all year with a solid program. So anything could happen and may happen.

Red Dog said:

I mean, was anyone REALLY putting Arakawa at or near the top of their prediction lists last year?

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I was. I stated that she had improved in a major way and that she could be the "dark horse" at 2004 worlds. I was right.

I was, too. She was my silver medal pick behind Kwan and ahead of Cohen.

If Irina skates like she did at Europeans, she won't win, home court or not. I haven't seen enough of Arakawa to be able to predict if she can repeat. My feeling is that her LP last year was the skate-of-her-life and she won't be able to do it again. Kwan can never be counted out. She is a great competitor who should have won silver last year but was overly penalized (5.1?!) in her short program. And at least three and maybe four judges marked her long program first over Arakawa's, even though she doubled a triple. Cohen's past performances indicate she won't win. Until she starts skating her LPs without mistakes, I would never pick her to win a gold medal.

I Agree Up To A Point

I agree up to a point that unless Sasha starts putting together essentially error free programs, she won't land at the top. But someday I do expect it to happen. I also expect her to fare well under CoP. but I also agree that if she is falls twice in a program,as she has in the past, she won't land on the podium regardless of how the numbers under CoP should add up. The judges will find a way to penalize her for it and rightly so.

kyla2 said:

I agree up to a point that unless Sasha starts putting together essentially error free programs, she won't land at the top. But someday I do expect it to happen. I also expect her to fare well under CoP. but I also agree that if she is falls twice in a program,as she has in the past, she won't land on the podium regardless of how the numbers under CoP should add up. The judges will find a way to penalize her for it and rightly so.

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I agree with this in theory -- but if it's One Of Those Nights (read: SPLATFEST) she would still have the edge with her artistry and presentation. One or two falls wouldn't deprive a person of a podium finish if everyone else is making mistakes, too. This being the first WORLDS under COP, it should be interesting to see how the pressure is handled -- in all categories.

If I were a betting person, I sure as heck wouldn't put my money on Sasha to win gold. Could she? Yes. Would a bookmaker give her short odds? No.

Sasha

I like Sasha very much and would love to see her do well, Johnny. But I don't agree that if she falls twice she will land on the podium. Everyone in contention for the podium would have to do poorly as well, and that is highly unlikely. She just won't get the points; the judges will penalize her one way or another. But having said that, it goes for all all the skaters, not just Sasha.

Kathy said:

With all the bad press about the "scandal" regarding the Europeans, I think the judges are going to do evrything they can to make the judging at Worlds fair. The last thing COP and figure skating needs is another huge deal about unfair judging at Worlds. Had this not happened, and there was no current uproar, I would agree with Mzheng and Joe that no matter what Irina would win. But I doubt that now. Worlds is a huge test for COP and I can't imagine them being stupid enough to risk another "scandal" with judging - skating has so much to lose if that happens - all the credibility they are working to attain. That being said I think the judging will most likely be the fairest ever. Now Irina still may well win, but if she does I think it will be because she skates well enough to do so. I am still going out on a limb and saying Michelle will win, mostly because she, among the top three is in the best psychological position to do so.

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Kathy, I really hope that is the case with the judges but I'm unsure if that's going to happen. The cynical side of me is thinking it's not but I'm trying to have some positive feelings about this Worlds.