Who will go Pro or retire after Turin?

[sk8m8]

It occured to me the other day about the most likely choices of who would go pro or retire after the next Olympic cycle. The CoP may lure some who have superior skating skills to stay, but will or won't the medals in Turnin dedide much of that kind of thing?

Just to start the thread with a good guessing game...say if Sasha won OGM, would she then stick around or take the money and run as the next featured attraction for SOI or COI? Likewise, while artistic elements and skating skills are getting amped up values, what happens to the Angela Nikadinov's who still need uber solid jumps to compete with the Miki Ando's and Joannie Rochette who are "on the brink" of breaking into the medals with a full mix at Worlds?

Discuss...

[Joesitz]

Let's discuss COI and SOI first. Is anyone leaving these shows? particularly SOI. Does COI and SOI absolutely need anyone? Both the shows run as a business and only popular skaters can get a job with them. That in itself eliminates a lot of retirees. Coaching and Design take time to build up a clientel. Are these skaters prepared to wait till they become the next sought after coach or dress designer?

Now to the point and it is pure speculation, but I suspect Michelle and Irina will definitely retire whether winning or losing (turning to exhibition skating may not be their goal.) If Sasha does not podium she will retire; if she gets silver, she may hang in there for another go. Amber, Angelina, Fumie, Shizuka, all will retire. Jenny will look to see how Kimmie and Katy are doing, then decide. Bebe and Yebin are in till 2010 as is Yukina, Miki, Mao, and a dozen other Japanese ladies as well as Susanna, Joannie and Cynthia. Vika and Elena may well give it another go, if Irina retires. Age, of course has a lot to do with giving it another go, and only the skaters can decide.

the above is pure speculation and if you get the gist, you can figure out the Men, Pairs and Dance.

Joe

[attyfan]

After SLC Olys, SOI failed to renew Kulik's contract when they signed Yags, so probably Yags's contract will be up for renewal around that time -- and if they can get the new men's gold medalist, Yags will retire (his hip might force him out, anyway). Sarah's contract, I believe, is only for this year; she might want to return to college, or at least, leave that option open. Also, with the "baby epidemic" hitting SOI this past few years, I won't be surprised if Yuka retires soon.

[hockeyfan228]

SOI has been thin on Ladies, and Sato is only guesting part-time this year. I think there would be room for at least two of the podium finishers in the show. I don't see Slutskaya doing it for more than a year, and she may prefer COI for that year, to sock away some extra cash for her family, and then go home and enjoy family life.

As for Pairs, I don't know how much longer B/S want to perform, and Meno/Sand are new parents. There should be room on SOI for pairs. But of the top teams, the only ones I see retiring after Torino are Shen/Zhao, Petrova/Tikhonov, and Zagorska/Siudek, the latter because with Totmianina/Marinin, Pang/Tong, Zhang/Zhang, and Obertas/Slavnov in the mix, the chances of gaining a medal, let alone a World Championship, are pretty slim. I can't imagine that SOI wouldn't try to get Shen/Zhao, who I think will retire after Torino, at least for a season, but COI might have them locked up. With Zagorska/Siudek training in Canada and gaining popularity in North America, they might be able to slot into CSOI and maybe some of the US tour. If O/S pull off a miracle, then if Moskvina thinks it a good idea to seize the moment, they might retire and tour. Unfortunately, I don't think SOI would ever hire Petrova/Tikhonov, if they podium, which is really too bad, because I think they'd be great show skaters -- their exhibition in Dortmund was fabulous. If Inoue/Baldwin manage to pull of a top six finish -- or a close seventh or eighth -- they might be dark horses for an SOI spot.

I don't see any top Men retiring after Torino, unless Min Zhang gives two great performances to join the top tier or Michael Weiss pulls off a big surprise. And Weiss is already being slotted into SOI this year, so if it works out, he's got to be in. Plushenko has talked about having surgery after Torino, and taking the time to recover. I don't see Joubert, Weir, Lambiel, Lindemann, Li, or Buttle going anywhere immediately after Torino, although who knows if Sandhu would retire at 26 to do SOI or slot in part time like Weiss has.

Dance is a bit more complicated: There's a chance that only Navka/Kostomarov will retire after Torino, and I expect them to win in Moscow and Torino. If they don't compete at Worlds 2006, then I'd expect Denkova/Staviyski to go for gold in Calgary and retire. If N/K compete in Calgary, then I'd expect Den/Sta to go for a World title in Tokyo. Depending how they do over the next few years -- i.e., if they're not passed by younger skaters -- I wouldn't be surprised if Grushina/Goncharov, Dubreuil/Lauzon and Chait/Sakhnovsky were to stick around for Tokyo, particularly if they have a shot at the gold medal, and then retire en masse, leaving Delobel/Schoefelder (29/30 in 2008) and Gregory/Petukhov (27/30 in 2008) as the "old folks" and the kids: Belbin/Agosto, Domnina/Shabalin, Faiella/Scali, Kerrs, Gudina/Beletski, and any upcoming stars from Juniors and Novice.

N/K would get a year on COI, if they want to tour post-retirement, but they might have more fun in SOI, especially if they could do part time and wanted a lighter schedule. Dubreuil/Lauzon might also be candidates for CSOI and SOI, if they wanted to leave Europe. Dance seems to be the lowest on the SOI totem pole, so if they recruited G/G and/or C/S, I wouldn't be completely surprised.

I think it makes good business sense for SOI to test drive skaters. Surely two skaters or teams could split roles in group numbers, and there would be more work for more people and more exposure for more skaters.

[ceg15]

Womens: Yes I think Michelle and Irina would most definitely retire after the olympics in Turin if not Irina after Worlds if she wins. Michelle likes to hold on. I'll suspect they'll both be offerd a spot on Coi, or soi.

Originally posted by Joesitz:

Bebe and Yebin are in till 2010 as is Yukina, Miki, Mao, and a dozen other Japanese ladies as well as Susanna, Joannie and Cynthia

Agreed!

Mens: Evgeny I think will retire after 2006-i think he badly wants that olympic gold and i'm pretty sure he'll get it unless one of his competitiors steps it up a big notch!

Hockeyfan228:

Plushenko has talked about having surgery after Torino, and taking the time to recover

If so, then he probably won't joing coi or soi right away....I can see Buttle, Weir, Sandhu, Li, Lindemann, Lambiel holding on if they don't feel they did their best in Torino or the want to give it another shot. I think they'll probably want those skaters staying for 2006 though.

I think Shen and Zhao will definitely go after 2006, they have everything anyway-all they're waiting for is olympic gold...and then i'm pretty sure they'll go and they'll probably go to coi or soi just like jamie and david and elena and anton did. I know that Sale and Pelletier have signed a four, six? year contract with soi with american and canadian I think,so they'll be in for awhile, this will be their 3rd year...I foget/don't know if Berezhnaya and Shikarlidze have a contract or not.

It's sort of hard to say at this point....

[Mathman]

About "going pro," I think this pretty much means SOI. And there are very few openings there, as has been pointed out

A lot of the other skaters that have been discussed on this thread already skate for COI: Michelle, Irina, Sasha, Evgeni, Johnny Weir, Fumie, Jenny Kirk, Shen and Zhou, Totmianina and Marinin. Whether they would be invited to continue after they are no longer in the public eye as competitors, is another question. Kirk, Suguri and T&M might be replaced by whoever is the next hot thing, for instance (and Shen and Zhou might not want to do it).

Mathman

[Ximena]

I remember Takeshi saying that he was turning pro after Turino 06, but maybe since he has missed a season and it's starting to recover, he might try it for a while.

Didn't Joubert said that he was planning on winning Olys in 06 and then retire? I remember reading that. Then he added the part of doing pairs and winning Olys 10

Plush for years had talked about competing until 2010, and when this new injuries started. he kept saying that but added "if health permits", so since he is getting surgery after Olys, one can only wait and see.

I imagine Weiss retiring after Olys although it could depend if he actually makes the team for Olys or not.

Also from interviews, one gte the feeling that Ilia would turn pro after Turino

[lavender]

I think after Turin (maybe not immediately) Michelle, Irina, Sasha, Julia, Arakawa, Amber, Angela, Elena S, Liashenko, Plushenko (from injury), Weiss, Takeshi, Shen/Zhao, Petrova/Tikhonov, Zagorska/Siudek, Totmianina/Marinin. Joubert might be sticking around cause I don't see him winning the Olympics at this point.


There's more of course. This may be a new time in the pro world with all the popula skaters leaving. It's weird but it's kind of a welcome change because I myself have followed and supported this sport for long enough. I'm so over it. Of course if Michelle stays then I'd have to stay but I don't think that will happen.

[RealtorGal]

TV Commentator: "Well, here we are at the 2050 Olympics and you've just got to be amazed that Michelle Kwan is back for yet another try at that elusive gold medal."

Sarah Hughes: "Yes, she's such an inspiration to everyone. Don't let that grey hair fool you! Michelle has the heart of a champion. It's incredible how she keeps on making the podium at Nationals despite the fact that she still hasn't mastered those 3/3s."

TV Commentator: "Who is her main competition here in Reykjavík?"

Sarah Hughes: "Well, I'd have to say that Alberta Hughes-Finley, the U.S. National Champion is the favorite to win gold."

TV Commentator: "Who just happens to be your very own granddaughter!"

Sarah Hughes: (giggles): "Yes, that's true! But this is my unbiased opinion!" (more giggles).

[doubleaxelcm]

TV Commentator: "Well, here we are at the 2050 Olympics and you've just got to be amazed that Michelle Kwan is back for yet another try at that elusive gold medal."

Sarah Hughes: "Yes, she's such an inspiration to everyone. Don't let that grey hair fool you! Michelle has the heart of a champion. It's incredible how she keeps on making the podium at Nationals despite the fact that she still hasn't mastered those 3/3s."

TV Commentator: "Who is her main competition here in Reykjavík?"

Sarah Hughes: "Well, I'd have to say that Alberta Hughes-Finley, the U.S. National Champion is the favorite to win gold."

TV Commentator: "Who just happens to be your very own granddaughter!"

Sarah Hughes: (giggles): "Yes, that's true! But this is my unbiased opinion!" (more giggles).

What was that about????

[SkateFan4Life]

Great thread! I'm sure many of us have been toying with this subject in our heads as Turino lies ahead - just a little over a year away!

In my opinion, Michelle Kwan will retire from eligible competition after the 2006 competitive season, regardless of whether or not she wins the Olympic gold medal. Even if she doesn't win the OGM, she has emassed such an incredible career of outstanding performances, medals, and placements, there simply isn't much left to achieve in that area. Michelle will turn 26 the summer of 2006, so she will most likely be more than ready to move on to the next stage of her life, with professional tours and/or whatever else she chooses to do.

I would also expect Irina Slutskaya to retire after the 2006 season. She, too, is a wonderful veteran of figure skating who has won numerous titles and who has delighted audiences around the world. I hope Irina will enjoy a wonderful life in Russia doing whatever gives her joy.

Probably Shizuka Arakawa will retire at the end of the 2006 season.

I would also expect Amber Corwin and Angela Nikodinov, who will be 28 and 25 in 2006, respectively, to retire after that season. It's entirely possible that neither of them will win spots on the 2006 Olympic Team, so their season may end abruptly at the conclusion of the US Nationals. Jenny Kirk will probably also retire, although she will only be 21, so perhaps she might decide to stay on for another year or two.

In my view, the question mark is Sasha Cohen. If she blazes to victory at Tornio, I would expect her to retire immediately and pursue lucrative professional endeavors. I also think she will retire if disaster strikes and she skates a "splatfest" long program at the Olympics. If she wins silver or bronze, however, she may stick around for another year or two. Sasha will be only 21 at the Olympics, so she could definitely be around for another 4-year cycle.

As for the men, I can only hope that Michael Weiss will finally hang up his competitive skates. Sorry, I simply don't like his sloppy skating. I know I've written this before - but at the age of 28 to be still trying to learn the triple axel is just ridiculous, IMHO. Again, sorry to his fans. Nothing personal against Weiss, who seems like an incredibly nice, decent man. It would be nice if Michael could win an Olympic medal (his third attempt). Who knows, that may happen.

I would also expect Timothy Goebel to retire. His poor body has been bruised, battered, and injured so much during his competitive career, he may decide to stop competing before he winds up in a wheelchair. I think Goebel could be a major star of SOI or any other pro skating production, with or without quads.

Also, Ryan Jahnke will probably retire at the end of the 2006 season. He's another veteran who is still trying to perfect the triple axel. I would hope that he makes the Olympic team, but that may not happen. As with Corwin and Nikodinov, Jahnke's competitive career may end abruptly at the US Nationals.

I would expect Johnny Weir to stay in the competitive arena through the 2010 season, when he will be 25. The same goes for Evan Lysacek, definitely.

Most likely Matt Savoie will retire at the end of the 2006 season. I hope he makes the Olympic team - that may or may not happen.

[soogar]

Ilia Klimkin will probably turn pro. Though he's going to have to learn how to skate with a hula hoop and flaming clubs if he wants to get a job with COI (unless he wins the OGM , though I think that's unlikely).

Sasha wil definitely turn pro regardless of the outcome at the Olympics. She will get endorsements in spite of her results because of her looks and appeal (she gets them now with no major title). I don't see her skating on until 25. I think she would be a better pro and SOI will snap her up.

MK and Irina will also quit. Though MK has said in an interview that she wants to go on until 2007.

[SkateFan4Life]

Sasha wil definitely turn pro regardless of the outcome at the Olympics. She will get endorsements in spite of her results because of her looks and appeal (she gets them now with no major title). I don't see her skating on until 25. I think she would be a better pro and SOI will snap her up.

OK - you're probably right about Sasha geting endorsements "in spite of her results because of her looks and appeal". However, if she skates in Turin like she skated at Marshalls (two falls, several stumbles) and generally blows the competition, what reputable corporation is going to jump at the opportunity to offer her an endorsement? She has a history of flawed performances, messy programs, and blowing chances to win major titles. Is the general public so ignorant of the facts and/or do they simply not care because she's a pretty face?
Give me a break. :sheesh:

[Jaana]

After SLC Olys, SOI failed to renew Kulik's contract when they signed Yags, so probably Yags's contract will be up for renewal around that time -- and if they can get the new men's gold medalist, Yags will retire (his hip might force him out, anyway)

Actually Ilia was invited back, but he declined from various reasons (as far as I have understood). He also was asked back again after Tara and Steven got injured in fall 2002. Ilia had though apparently already a contract with PIW shows in Japan in that time. And now in season 2004-2005 Ilia will be skating as a SOI guest star in Seattle, Spokane, Sacramento, San Jose, Long Island, Boston, Bridgeport, Reading, Amherst, Pittsburgh, Rochester, Albany, Toledo and Cincinnati shows.

Marjaana

[hockeyfan228]

In my view, the question mark is Sasha Cohen. If she blazes to victory at Tornio, I would expect her to retire immediately and pursue lucrative professional endeavors. I also think she will retire if disaster strikes and she skates a "splatfest" long program at the Olympics. If she wins silver or bronze, however, she may stick around for another year or two.

I think if Cohen wins Olympic gold, she will retire right away. If she doesn't, whether she skates beyond 2006 will depend on whether she wins the World title in 2005 or 2006. If she does, I think she's out after 2006. I expect Slutskaya, Kwan, and Arakawa to retire after 2006. The only question is whether this happens after Torino or after Calgary.

If both Kwan and Cohen are out after Calgary, Nikodinov, Kirk, and/or Corwin might stick around another year for a chance at the World team, but I think that depends on how they do at US Nationals over the next couple of years. If they switch places, I don't think they'll go anywhere, but if they're surpassed by the "kids" in the ranks, I think they'll leave. If Kwan and/or Cohen leave after Torino, then it's possible that whoever is the replacement(s) for the 2006 World team spot will leave after Calgary.

Depending on whether Kwan, Slutskaya, and Arakawa skate Worlds in 2006, Sebestyen might stick around for 2007, if she stays in the top six or seven. Like Petrova/Tikhonov, she has been working very hard on her skating for the last couple of years and the work has paid off; IMO she would have a chance to win a World medal or title, if four of the women in front of her clear out of the ranks.