Sasha - what are the odds??

Odds

Lately it seems like Sasha is landing about 2/3 of her jumps cleanly in competition (compared to pretty close to 100% in practice). So the probability that she will complete a six-triple program with no falls is about .667^6 = .088. This gives odds of about 10 to 1 against skating a clean program.

Mathman

I do think she'll put it together one day and people who don't even like Sasha will be happy for her. Like others have said COP is in her favor. Missing 1 jump doesn't hurt her that much as she can make up the points in other areas. The focus will be on the total points and she is a good SP skater which will give her some leads so she may not be as nervous for the LP.

From one of her last interviews she said she realizes that it is her not her coaches. Since she is the most confortable with Mr. Nicks then she should stay with him. He does know her better than anybody and his calm demeaner at competitions helps Sasha a lot more than the emotional TT or Robin. She didn't have that deer in headlights look last night. Nervous but not scared to death. Nicks lets Sasha do it her way then realize she is wrong and then listen to him rather than the "you do it my way or else" approach. I know that on the outside that looks like Sasha is running all over him but he's smart in knowing that she is so stubborn she won't listen until she learns it herself. That is what happened in the 2001-2002 season. Sasha did the quad when Nicks didn't want her then realized she was wrong and then listened to him and had her best skate at Nats and made the olympic team. He's also admitted that Sasha was actually right on some occations so he isn't set in it having to be his way. In the end it is appropiate she ends up with the coach who made her into a world class skater.
If she should win the man should get the credit.

Yes, she will win nationals and worlds, we all know she has the talent after all she's won GP last year right? And she does seem to do a lot better under the COP. Sasha need to learn one thing FOCUS!!!

Sasha actually skated better here than she had in her two previous outings this year. I believe she still isn't fully back from that reinjury. I think her conditioning seems to be off this year and she's missing things at the end. Her time off of training to heal probably didn't help.

Oh well, life's tough being a Sasha fan, but I love her skating no matter what. And I've heard people compare being a Sasha fan to being a Nicole Bobek fan. Yes, being a Sasha fan is difficult, but I am a huge Nicole fan and being a Sasha fan is loads easier than being a Nicole fan ever was! Nicole would've been pretty happy if she had a skate like Sasha's skate last night! But I still love ya Nicole!

purplecat said:

Oh well, life's tough being a Sasha fan, but I love her skating no matter what. And I've heard people compare being a Sasha fan to being a Nicole Bobek fan. Yes, being a Sasha fan is difficult, but I am a huge Nicole fan and being a Sasha fan is loads easier than being a Nicole fan ever was! Nicole would've been pretty happy if she had a skate like Sasha's skate last night! But I still love ya Nicole!

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:agree: Right on, Purple Cat!

MM

Don't forget guys that Sasha won the silver at Worlds last year, that's nothing to be ashamed about. I think that she is a beautiful and talented skater. I think that she will do better under the GOP than under the 6.0 system. When she falls my heart goes out to her, your on the edge of your seat all through her programs. Lets hope that she builds up her confidence and goes to Worlds and does her best. Good luck to all the skaters.

SusanBeth said:

No one wants to see her on top of the podium more than I do. I have big doubts. She needs to stop blaming coaches for for her mess ups. She has to get the job done on the ice. No one can give her a magic formula. She's had some of the best coaching talent in the world. She has been given a magnificient gift. She has no excuse for not getting the job done. She needs to work on Sasha. This is getting ridiculous. I love her overall skating, but she's too good to have to hope for help from COP. She should be able to blow the competition away. She just doesn't do it.

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Yeah, I agree with this. Her problems are in her head. Perhaps a boost of self-confidence would help. And an attitude adjustment to one that's positive all the time, even during the mistakes.

Sometimes I wonder if she's happy as a person; when I look at her, her eyes look distant and unhappy. Maybe that's the way her eyes are but that's my impression of her, and many times her smile doesn't reach her eyes (as Dick Button once said).

millie said:

Don't forget guys that Sasha won the silver at Worlds last year, that's nothing to be ashamed about. I think that she is a beautiful and talented skater. I think that she will do better under the GOP than under the 6.0 system. When she falls my heart goes out to her, your on the edge of your seat all through her programs. Lets hope that she builds up her confidence and goes to Worlds and does her best. Good luck to all the skaters.

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And also she has medalled in every senior nationals since she came to the senior scene, and that has been like 4 silvers and 1 bronze, I think that's awesome for any athlete.

purplecat said:

Sasha actually skated better here than she had in her two previous outings this year. I believe she still isn't fully back from that reinjury. I think her conditioning seems to be off this year and she's missing things at the end. Her time off of training to heal probably didn't help.

Oh well, life's tough being a Sasha fan, but I love her skating no matter what. And I've heard people compare being a Sasha fan to being a Nicole Bobek fan. Yes, being a Sasha fan is difficult, but I am a huge Nicole fan and being a Sasha fan is loads easier than being a Nicole fan ever was! Nicole would've been pretty happy if she had a skate like Sasha's skate last night! But I still love ya Nicole!

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Boy was I surprised to read this, as I thought I was the only Sasha/Nicole fan alive..I loved Nicole's skating just as I love Sasha. Now that Nicole has turned pro she has lost a lot of her spark (which is so sad). But I am with you I sure hope she gets it together soon as I for one am getting tired of all the nasty things being said about her. I was wondering if maybe a little weight gain would benefit her on her jumps, not a lot just enough to make her a little stronger as she appears so frail.

purplecat said:

Oh well, life's tough being a Sasha fan, but I love her skating no matter what. :

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I am always excited to see Sasha skate because it is such a treat to watch her artistry which, I believe, is way above any skater I've ever seen.
The hard part is listening to the media and say such ugly things about her. Of course I know she is disappointed with herself and that makes me sad for her.

I just want to say to her--even tho you didn't win, your programs were amazing and I loved them. I can't wait till worlds to see YOU skate. You're the best in my book and a hand down or a fall on a jump doesn't change how I feel aboutyour skating.
Peggy

We are all waiting for the big Sasha skate even the die hard Kwaniacs. She has had very good skates, e.g., Campbells 2003 with the first of her Swan Lakes by TT and then again in Dortmund Qualifying with Swan Lake a la Wagner.

It's not easy for a die-hard fan to see faults with the skater of choice but it is the only way to get on with your own personal life and not the skaters. Back to the point, imo, Sasha is skating this year to music which would work better in Pairs or even Dance. It was composed that way. The music is sugary romantic for little girls dreaming of a prince and live happily ever after. Sasha is capable of skating a much more mature piece of music. Her mishaps and there are many are what most posters consider a loss of concentration which is tough for a coach to instill on the skater. However, as we have seen in a few instances, she is capable of being numero uno so we don't give up on her.

As for La Kwan, she too, is skating to music which would be better skated by a team of skaters either in dance or pairs and for me it would make a wonderful ensemble number. But hey, these were their choices and let's see how they hold up.

Joe

Joe

nuggetr said:

Boy was I surprised to read this, as I thought I was the only Sasha/Nicole fan alive..I loved Nicole's skating just as I love Sasha.

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To top it all off, not only am I a huge Sasha fan and a huge Nicole fan, I was a huge Christopher Bowman fan too! Probably the three names most often listed as having unfullfilled potential! Poor me!