Ladies Free if COP

I know the Code of Points pretty well now, and I was on the ISU website checking into it. Had Sasha and Michelle skated the way they did on Saturday and were judged by the Code of Points, it would have been a much closer competition. From what I can tell, at least technically (since program components is up to the judges' discretion), Sasha may have made out with as many as 6 points over Michelle, depending on how the judges felt.

If you want a breakdown of how I came to that conclusion, I have it...but, that's not really what my question is.

The question is, is the Code of Points going to hurt Michelle in the long run? She has never competed under the COP, and her programs certainly aren't designed to benefit from the system. She has cleaner programs, but her jumps are easier, her combinations aren't worth as many points, and her spins are all about a level lower than Sasha's.

Just something to ponder...I found it interesting.

I find this interesting too....

I would love to hear more about your analysis if you have time to write more about it. Inquiring minds want to know!!

DG

The question is, is the Code of Points going to hurt Michelle in the long run? She has never competed under the COP, and her programs certainly aren't designed to benefit from the system. She has cleaner programs, but her jumps are easier, her combinations aren't worth as many points, and her spins are all about a level lower than Sasha's.

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Hasn't she said many times that she is working on making her programs more CoP friendly and will be adding these changes to Bolero at Worlds?

How minute points is that human zamboni move of Sasha's (any of them) worth under CoP?

The Washington Post includes a lengthy article about Michelle Kwan's efforts to create a winning program under the new Code of Points judging system. Kwan sat out during the fall Grand Prix competitions and, earlier this month, came in second to Russian Irina Slutskaya at a made-for-television skating competition sponsored by Marshalls. On the other hand, from the looks of her potential competitors at the world championships, Kwan still has a great chance of medalling and even winning.

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Skaters who have attempted more difficult jumps, such as Japanese skater Miki Ando, have either fallen or had their points reduced for having cheated landings. Italian skater Carolina Kostner has suffered miserably this fall, even messing up on double axels; so much for predictions of her being a rising star going into the 2006 Olympics in Turino, Italy. American Sasha Cohen has had a rocky season so far and just moved back to the Los Angeles area to train with her former coach John Nicks. Japanese skater and reigning world champion Shizuka Arakawa has also stumbled throughout this new skating season.

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Months ago, figure skater Michelle Kwan and former Olympic champion Christopher Dean huddled at a practice session, listening to a piece of music -- Ravel's Bolero -- that Dean and Jayne Torvill had used in a legendary performance. As they planned choreography for this winter's competitive season, they sought the perfect mix of passion, emotion, drama, power and richness. And mathematics. For the first time in her career, Kwan recalled, she clutched a piece of paper while on the ice, studying point values attached to various spins, jumps and footwork. Kwan, one of the most popular and accomplished skaters in the sport's history, wasn't sure if she needed creativity to make the challenging piece come to life, or a calculator.

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Kwan admitted the menu of changes and challenges this season is daunting, but no more, she said, than in the past.

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Piel said:

How minute points is that human zamboni move of Sasha's (any of them) worth under CoP?

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mmm... last time I checked, just a 1 point deduction... and still she managed to get the highest scores yet with CoP. Not bad even when she included the "human zamboni" you talk about, isn't it?

I don't think if any of us is qualified to compare any skaters program under CoP, unless we are coaches or former skaters involved with skating in daily bases to identify correctly the level of difficulty of each element. I don't doubt Michelle is working on a CoP program, as she has stated many times, just as I cannot deny that Sasha excells under CoP, and also has said she is working to improve her program for CoP. Both of them seem awared of what they have to do. We'll have to wait and see what happens :yes:

Code of Points if used at 2005 US Nationals, the winner would be:


BEATRISA LIANG

Joe

Beatrisa Liang

I also think she was undermarked in comparison to the other skaters, however, there were some areas that could be places for deductions. In the SP, she does not have a seamless set of steps into her triple flip. She completely breaks cadence, which is the point of the exercise, to have a flowing cadence of steps into the triple jump. They can take 0.2 under the 6.0 system, or even 0.3 if the break is severe enough to be considered a failure.

In the LP, she had trouble with her edge jumps, the salcow, and she did not demonstrate any type of loop jump. This leaves room to lower her base mark for not completing these two different triples. She also would not get the credit for having demonstrated a full compliment of triples and the 2 axel, further lowering her base mark.

Sasha touched down and fell, but she completed her flutz, flip, loop (quality deduction), salcow, toe-loop and double axel. Her spins and Liang's seem complimentary, and her spirals are slightly better than Liang's (who's are terrific!). Liang and she both had speed, and Liang had slightly more energy. Sasha was better than Beatrisa despite the errors, I believe, but not by much.

Beatrisa seemed to do slightly better than Jennifer, but not as well as Kimmie Meissner, even though she has some better quality than Kimmie.

Michelle had the best presentation, and I would place Liang second in presentation, Sasha third, Kimmie 4th (for excitement and flow and grace) and Jennifer 5th (falls, mishaps and struggles).

Technical merit, well this is interesting. Kimmie should be first, Michelle second, Sasha third, Beatrisa 4th and Jennifer 5th.

How this all relates to the SP placements given to Liang which were low, explain her 5th place placement. But I think the competitors of the future post 2006 Olympics will be Emily Hughes, Kimmie Meissner, Beatrisa Liang and Katy Taylor.

I think that USFS is playing it safe by sending its three most experienced international skaters to Worlds in the pre-Olympic year to guarantee the USA three spots on the Olympic team. If it were my decision, I would take a chance on sending Beatrisa, who would probably do better than the 17th and 18th places Jenny has skated before. She skates with speed, great CoP spins and enough jumps to be competitive, and she needs better combination jumps and a triple axel in the future to be the best jumper, but she could be in the top 12.

Hikaru said:

mmm... last time I checked, just a 1 point deduction... and still she managed to get the highest scores yet with CoP. Not bad even when she included the "human zamboni" you talk about, isn't it?
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FANTASTIC POINT. Sasha has yet to skate a clean program under COP, but she's certainly done well under it, at least based on what was in place with that system last season. I understand there have been a few modifications, but by and large, I'd say Kwan has more to worry about with the system than Cohen does. I really wish they'd send Michelle to 4Cs so she (and we) could get some idea of how her program would stack up.

Yes, there were some changes in the CoP from the first season to this one. I don't know how much they changed the scores for spins and such, but in the jumps, I think they only changed the base values for certain jumps, and also that for the triples and quads, the judges have the GoE of +1,+2,+3 and -1,-2,-3. For the double axel I think, the rest of the doubles and single jumps, the GoE is different than the above. So I'm not sure if the changes were significant. This season Plushenko broke his own record, I think he was the highest with over 230 points or so, and the at the GPF he went over 250.

I would also love to see Michelle at 4CC, but if she is saving energy for worlds, then I don't think they will send her. I am really looking forward for the Bolero-CoP program. I did see a few changes from her presentation from Campbells to Marshalls, she changed some spins. I have to yet see Nationals (I'm looking forward to BeBe's Harry Potter program!!)

TECHNICHALLY, yes, Kimmie would have scored over both of them. However, the rivalry I was talking about was between Michelle and Sasha, not between all of the skaters. Also, it's safe to assume that Kimmie wouldn't have gotten nearly the points either Sasha or Michelle would have gotten in program components, which would have put her out of the running.

I was simply refferring to Michelle and Sasha, not all the skaters who skated at Nats.

Doggygirl, tonight, I'm going to get some sleep, but I would be happy to post my COP analysis for you tomorrow. I found it extremely interesting, actually, as I thought that with the fall and all that Michelle would be light years ahead of Sasha.

Hikaru said:

I don't think if any of us is qualified to compare any skaters program under CoP, unless we are coaches or former skaters involved with skating in daily bases to identify correctly the level of difficulty of each element.

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I actually was a very competitive skater until I got injured, and I'm looking into getting certified as a judge. I have a pretty detailed view of what the COP entails, at least I think I do. Of course, I don't have as much basis for judging as a certified judge, or even as a coach, but I do have some inclination.

elingrace4eva said:

I actually was a very competitive skater until I got injured, and I'm looking into getting certified as a judge. I have a pretty detailed view of what the COP entails, at least I think I do. Of course, I don't have as much basis for judging as a certified judge, or even as a coach, but I do have some inclination.

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Well, in your case then, you are definitely more qualified than me to identify the elements! The best I can do is identify a jump, and certain spins, and I am starting to develope the eye to see the inside and outside edges (It's hard when the skater are moving so fast).

Elingrace4eva: I have a question about your comparison of Michelle's and Sasha's programs in COP. Now, I can understand how Sasha would get more points on spins and spirals than Michelle. But you stated that Sasha's jumps are harder than Michelle's. How is that? Are you referring to the planned jumps in their programs or the jumps they actually did in their Nationals LPs? Because to me it seemed like their jumps at Nationals were pretty equal. If anything, it seems like Michelle would get more points there for superior height and flow. I'm sure you may be right, but I am curious to hear why you think this.

In general, I can't wait for Worlds to see how Michelle does with COP. I hope she does well. I'm encouraged by the new and improved footwork in her programs, among other things. But I do agree that Sasha is sort of the ultimate COP skater. She does some of the hardest non-jump elements and, when she's on, does them better than anyone else. Actually, what will be interesting is to see how Sasha and Irina compare to each other under COP. Both of them are doing extremely well under the new system. Sasha seems to get points for her incredible execution of elements, whereas Irina gets points for her speed and difficulty. Will be interesting to see which of the two gets higher COP marks at Worlds.

Elingrace4eva, thanks for starting this great thread. I second DoggyGirl's request for the details of your analysis.

About the program components, the criticism of the new judging system so far has been that the judges are treating it pretty much the same as the presentation score under the old system. That is, whoever you thought was the prettiest, she gets a 5.9, the second prettiest gets a 5.8, etc. Rather than actually scoring for quality of transitional elements, choreography, etc.

Michelle did get higher second marks than Sasha in this contest, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions, CoP-wise, from that. The attitude of the judges seems to have been, well, Michelle clearly won, so let's give her some 6.0s as a lifetime achievement award.

Mathman

elingrace4eva said:

Also, it's safe to assume that Kimmie wouldn't have gotten nearly the points either Sasha or Michelle would have gotten in program components, which would have put her out of the running.

I was simply refferring to Michelle and Sasha, not all the skaters who skated at Nats.

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First let me praise your work on the technical side of transferring the tricks into score values. However, I presume you are aware that the component scores are extremely subjective and one judge's likes is another judge's dislikes. Did you not infer your own personal tastes into the component scores? That's perfectly all right but your conclusion becomes and opinion. Kimmie did win over Jenny. Did the scores in the component side show that?

I've always said if two sets of judges were used in a competition, the results would be different.

Joe

eyria said:

Elingrace4eva: I have a question about your comparison of Michelle's and Sasha's programs in COP. Now, I can understand how Sasha would get more points on spins and spirals than Michelle. But you stated that Sasha's jumps are harder than Michelle's. How is that? Are you referring to the planned jumps in their programs or the jumps they actually did in their Nationals LPs? Because to me it seemed like their jumps at Nationals were pretty equal. If anything, it seems like Michelle would get more points there for superior height and flow. I'm sure you may be right, but I am curious to hear why you think this.

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Sasha did a triple lutz double toe in combination as well as a triple flip double toe in combination, where as michelle did a triple flip double toe and a triple toe double toe (which is a lower scoring jump combo). Plus, Michelle doubled the lutz, where as Sasha fell, but attempted a triple lutz. And Michelle didn't even attempt the triple loop which Sasha fell on.

Sasha's jumps were harder, and, even with the fall and the touch down, didn't fall that much behind Michelle's in scoring,.

elingrace4eva said:

...Michelle did a triple flip double toe and a triple toe double toe (which is a lower scoring jump combo). Plus, Michelle doubled the lutz, whereas Sasha fell, but attempted a triple lutz. And Michelle didn't even attempt the triple loop which Sasha fell on.

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Are you sure about that triple flip/double toe? I thought it was a triple Lutz/double toe. (I gave it a 0 GOE). Or are you saying that her Flutz was so bad that it was really a flip?

Both Sasha and Michelle "attempted" a solo triple Lutz, so I am not sure of what you mean when you say "Michelle doubled the Lutz (bad)," while Sasha "attempted a triple (good), but fell." How do the points work out for that? Mcihelle gets a couple of points for a double Lutz (maybe a 0 GOE, since it wasn't over-rotated), while Sasha gets 0 points and a -1 for a fall. Is that right?

Also, Sasha's second combination might have had a higher base value than Michelle's triple toe/double toe, but didn't she give that back and then some by touching a hand down? (Is that a -2 GOE?)

Not being an expert myself, I would love to see the full run-down of points for all these elements.

Mathman

Remember if Nationals had been scored under CoP Kwan and Cohen may have done different elements.

Cop

Piel said:

Remember if Nationals had been scored under CoP Kwan and Cohen may have done different elements.

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I agree.

Plus, if falls aren't as severely deducted as they are under 6.0, then wouldn't it mean that Michelle would be attempting more riskier jumps? 3/3s and all that?

Hm. We will see when Worlds rolls around.

elingrace4eva said:

Sasha did a triple lutz double toe in combination as well as a triple flip double toe in combination, where as michelle did a triple flip double toe and a triple toe double toe (which is a lower scoring jump combo). Plus, Michelle doubled the lutz, where as Sasha fell, but attempted a triple lutz. And Michelle didn't even attempt the triple loop which Sasha fell on.

Sasha's jumps were harder, and, even with the fall and the touch down, didn't fall that much behind Michelle's in scoring,.

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Michelle did 3lutz/2t as well. But Sasha's touch down on her one combo would get at least -1 GOE.

Sasha falled on 3loop I think? It depends if Sasha's 3Loop was fully rotated before the fall, if not it could be down graded to a 2loop then -3 GOE applied. Thus sasha would lost at least 4 points on that fall assume it was called for 3loop.

Michelle's double Lutz, with 0 GOE would lost about the same points as Sasha's falled 3Loop. But since Michelle deliberately doubled that lutz when she found she could not finish the rotation. It had good running out at the landing. She properbly would get some + GOE from that jump. And plus this Lutz was late in program after 2:00 mark? she got 10% bonus on this jump.

Sasha's repeating of flip Michelle repeating of toe give Sasha's edge on points. But the overall jump quality, Michelle's was more likely got + GOEs. And her late jump elements would make up some points on her jump contents as well.

So on jump contents they were closeer under CoP than it would under 6.0, MK might have slight edge over Sasha.

The spin all of their spin were level 1. Sasha got the prop of speed, Michelle got the prop of centering and more rotations. Sasha has the edge here.

Spiral both are level 3. And both can get some + GOE. Equal.

Footwork, both level 2 difficult, but from the way they execution, Michelle's could be called level 3. (since level 3 compare to level 2 mostly involves the Execution quality like. Whole body movment, Fast, and rapid speed variation, etc.).

The PCS scores go to Michelle. Hands down.

Regarding Kimmie.
I don't think her Tech mark has the most advantage over Sasha and Michelle like ppl blieved. Her 3A would be called 2A and the - GOE applied. That means both Sasha's and Michelle's 2A would get more points than her's. She might get more points on her triple jumps since she had one more triple over Michelle and Sasha (The falling loop counted as triple with - GOE). So Kimmie's only tech advantage over Sasha and Michelle was on jump. But her spiral, fw were all in level 1, and wouldn't get any +GOE. The spin she had I don't know, but mostly look like simple to me, I assume level 1 as well.

The PCS score would be way behind Sasha and Michelle.

And remember, the tech marks are the sum of points added together. But the PCS scores in LP there are > 1 factor applied. for example the 1 point different in LP score could end up more than 1 different in final PCS scores.

Even under CoP I would think Michelle and Sasha would still come 1st and 2nd, but Kimmie might drop down due to her SP and LP result combined. Beb would be ahead. There were some armchairs analyst on FSU gave the result out there. From the link

http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=20904

1. Kwan 57.0 + 106.9 = 163.9
2. Cohen 58.6 + 97.5 = 156.1
3. Liang 50.0 + 100.7 = 150.7
4. Miessner 45.9 + 95.2 = 141.1

And I agree with Piel that there is no point to use CoP judge this competetion. Had this comp been judged under CoP, both Michelel and Sasha would skate to diff program designed more CoP friendly.

A great skater is a great skater, a better skater is a better skater, a good skater is a good skater no matter what judge system is used. Only close level skaters' order would be shuffled if the diff judge system is used.

I see, that makes sense. I remain puzzled as to why Michelle didn't try the triple loop. It's always been a part of her programs so I can't imagine why she would take it out now.