Did Michelle wait too long?

In three performances now of Bolero, Michelle has given us the watered-down 6.0 version. She calls it a "work in progress." So far the progress has been invisible. But that's OK, she has been working hard in practice and when Worlds rolls around she will have her CoP-friendly transitions and footwork, her new and improved spins, and maybe even a triple-triple or two all ready to go.

So basically her plan is to test-drive a new program for the first time at the World Championships.

What will her Worlds program be like, and will she be able to deliver it cold turkey?

Or is she having us on? Maybe she plans on doing more or less the same program at Worlds, screw the CoP, and try to win on a clean 6-triple program and exquisite presentation.

Or ... maybe she is on a two-year plan, hoping to peak in Turino rather than Moscow. Maybe she will keep Bolero as her Olympic program, and is thinking of Worlds as just another "work in progress" event along the way to that goal.

How long has it been since the U.S. has not had any lady on the podium at Worlds?

Mathman

Sasha will be doing exactly the same thing. In fact, she's already said she's going to place all her jumps in the first half of the program to avoid falls that seem to come after the 2-minute mark. That's what she did when she trained under Nicks in the 2001-2002 season.

Michelle had already said at Marshalls on December 3 that the program she'd be skating at Nationals was not the program she'd be doing at Worlds. I wouldn't attempt to second-guess Kwan. What we see at Worlds is anyone's guess. I just hope "Bolero" won't be her Olympic program.

Mathman ... I think more that she is on a 2 year plan. I believe when she first went to Rafael that he suggested that very thing. I doubt whether she will have 2 3/3's in Moscow ... she may try one.
I feel she resisted COP for awhile, but I think she is committed to it now. Frankly, I am not concerned about her winning in Moscow. I'd just like to see her program received well.
I have no doubt she will be a contender next season ... but I am not delusional about her doing multiple 3/3's or quads or 3A's. My guess is with one 3/3 ... a well balanced COP program and all the heart she puts into it ... she will have a chance in Torino. :yes:

BTW, I'm not convinced she will keep Bolero for next season.

Mathman said:

So far the progress has been invisible.

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Invisible?

Did you miss the one foot sections in the footwork, the extended spiral sequence, the improved spin positions, the 3toe/2loop and the more powerful jumps? Did you miss the added turns, especially in the beginning of Bolero?

I would hardly argue that Bolero is awesome and surpasses everyone else, but she has done things differently this season. And it's getting there.

Credit where its due please (IMO).

StillBlueLake said:

Invisible?

Did you miss the one foot sections in the footwork, the extended spiral sequence, the improved spin positions, the 3toe/2loop and the more powerful jumps? Did you miss the added turns, especially in the beginning of Bolero?

I would hardly argue that Bolero is awesome and surpasses everyone else, but she has done things differently this season. And it's getting there.

Credit where its due please (IMO).

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Tons of people are doing one foot sections in their footwork, it's somewhat expected now. Extended spirals? She's still not holding them particularly long. 3toe/2loop? Not particularly challenging... but i guess adding .2 or whatever to her score is just great for the loop over the toe. The added turns are something I could probably do and I don't skate. That's nothing hard, and I bet it took her 2 seconds turn learn how to do 3-turns at the beginning of her program.

I just hope "Bolero" won't be her Olympic program.

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I think Bolero is too difficult to skate to but Michelle has improved.

I personally just want Michelle to land on the podium somewhere.

Michelle did the 3toe/2loop earlier in the season, but she downgraded to the 3toe/2toe for nationals, and she still did not include a 3loop. I think the new system shouls penalize senior skaters who leave out a jump altogether because they are not comfortable with it.

I think Michelle is trying out her new "l am lazy" philosophy to try to remain laid back leading up to 2006. I do not think she will stay with Bolero after this year. I think the program is decent but does not have the emotional impact she has come to rely on. I think she is using this year to take advantage of working with Christopher Dean to legendary music. After this year I think she will try to put together a gold medal program with a different coreographer.

I still think the new system will hold her up if she has a good skate because there is always room in the program components for judges to reward their favorites and veterans. Maybe this will not be the case but I will believe it when I see it

Tony Wheeler said:

Tons of people are doing one foot sections in their footwork, it's somewhat expected now.

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Well no one at the top level are doing as difficult and veriaty steps as what she did at Marshall's. By now, I believe you read the detail analysis from jwcardinal11
at MKF it was addressed to you I believe.

http://p216.ezboard.com/fmichellekw...sageRange?topicID=23411.topic&start=1&stop=20

Tony Wheeler said:

Extended spirals? She's still not holding them particularly long.

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Yes. But she said in interview that there are certain things she need to be aware of. To me she can do it, just sometimes she was not paying attention under 6.0 that she cut the position short.

Tony Wheeler said:

3toe/2loop? Not particularly challenging... but i guess adding .2 or whatever to her score is just great for the loop over the toe.
.

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Yeah, not particularly challeging. But a poster at FSU (where you frequented) posted that she was seen practicing 3T/3L (her coach also confirmed in one interview). Under CoP, at least this season's def, a 3T/3L has the same risk factor as 3Z/3L (which Ando and Carolina dose) and 3Sal/3L (Irina dose) as far as being downgraded to a 3/2L. IMO, if Michelle treated her 3T/3L like her 2nd lutz at national, if she found herself can't pull off the 2nd 3Loop, than just do a clean well landed 2Loop, she might even gain some + GOE because 3T is her money jump. While the other girls might risk be called on 3/2Loop with - GOE.

Tony Wheeler said:

The added turns are something I could probably do and I don't skate. That's nothing hard, and I bet it took her 2 seconds turn learn how to do 3-turns at the beginning of her program.

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I thought there are a lot 3-turns in Irina's fw according to JW's analysis.

Mathman, I heard from my source the Marshall's version is the authentic Dean version 'every thing of it'; the original one that Dean and Michelle worked before Campbell, and was called 'structure level choreo' by Dean in one of hist interview.

brad640 said:

Michelle did the 3toe/2loop earlier in the season, but she downgraded to the 3toe/2toe for nationals, and she still did not include a 3loop. I think the new system shouls penalize senior skaters who leave out a jump altogether because they are not comfortable with it.

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The 3Toe/2Toe was original planned as 3Toe/3Toe two weeks before Nationals. Then she took it out think she dosen't need it to win. I guess since 3T/2l and 3T/2T has slight different entry path, so when she took out that 3T/3T she was too 'Lazy' to modify program to revert back to 3Toe/2Loop.

I agree with you that the new system should penalize senior skaters who leave out a jump altogether. But not this year's CoP. On the other side, although there is no explicite specification but Judge might subconciously took off the points from PCS scores. JMO.

Tony Wheeler said:

The added turns are something I could probably do and I don't skate.

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Um no you couldn't. Trust me, you'd fall.

My point is that Michelle has improved this season. Not that Michelle outclasses all the other ladies.

mzheng said:

I agree with you that the new system should penalize senior skaters who leave out a jump altogether. But not this year's CoP. On the other side, although there is no explicite specification but Judge might subconciously took off the points from PCS scores. JMO.

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Why should a skater be penalized if she doesn't do all the jumps? They're already getting fewer triples in by leaving one out. I'd rather see skaters do what they can rather than put a triple loop in if their bodies can't handle it. Bebe is leaving out the triple loop as well b/c it hurts her hip.

soogar said:

Why should a skater be penalized if she doesn't do all the jumps? They're already getting fewer triples in by leaving one out. I'd rather see skaters do what they can rather than put a triple loop in if their bodies can't handle it. Bebe is leaving out the triple loop as well b/c it hurts her hip.

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I believe under old system there is reward to veriaty which include different veriaty? There are only 5 type jumps you can do if you can't do a 3A. So being a senior lady if you want to stay competetive at high level you must master 5 different jumps. Either **panelty** the one don't do all 5 triples or **reward** the one include all triples in your program. But it is arguble that under CoP the panelty already implied in Zayak rule and the limitation of jump passes. Without 3Loop the most you can do is a 6 triples program. Which automatically giveup the points of one triple.

If the new system is supposed to reward variety, then Irina should be penalized for too many Bielmanns. If a Bielmann position is easy for a skater and she uses it in every other move, then the position is not difficult for that skater, and excessive use should be penalized. That's just MHO.

As I understand it, Michelle Kwan has more experience and more success at Worlds than just about anyone. Could it be that she knows what she is doing?

Praise to be, this post is not about her drinking milk or other who cares nitpicks.

I feel she just refused to get the message that 3x3s were essential. I mean there was a hint at the 98 Olys that the jumpin jack still to had do more jumps. True she had a broken toe at the time. But I presume that healed, and the 3tx3t should have been reinvented and become conistent by 02. but she ignored it and again the champion of that Oly had two 3x3s. She was spending too much time relishing her position as the 'best' skater in the US. Remember a 3tx3t is a basic jump now.

I still think she is the 'best' skater in the US but that has nothing to do with competition. As a competitor, I see at least 3 others who can beat her if she doesn't get on the CoP jumpin wagon. I think the jumps count, and one can not win without them. Judges will inflate the plus and minus scores easily with Bielmans and over the top extensions. The international judges have already shown that.

The huge amount of American adoration for her does not translate in Euope. There will not be a big roar when she takes the ice and even if she skates well, there will only be polite applause (except for the handful of Americans attending the event and half of them will be rooting for Sasha).

On the plus side, her jumps have improved but there are other competitors with the same jumps. One can not count others falling on their jumps. Her spins have finally begun to look like spins and with good positions. Why they deteriorated after 98 is beyond my comprehension. Her interpretation of that dumb music is fine and she looks lovely while skating to it.

I do not see her winning this Worlds. I am not even sure of the podium. If we have to hope that others make errors, then we are not looking at the 'best' skater in the world.

If all this is a prelude to the Olys then maybe she can get some basics like a 3tx3t and a 3zx3r, and a smart flying camel not a flying sit. If she does, she will win the Olys. Otherwise we will be looking at Asado or Meissner in the middle podium box. Arutunian has his work cut out which he can do but can Michelle?

Joe

Joesitz said:

Arutunian has his work cut out which he can do but can Michelle?

Joe

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I think both of them knowing what they are doing. This season she started prepare those ready to cook elements relatively early. As RA said "You'll see them when she needs them". and "Whether to use them or not is strategy".

People keep on talking about the 3-3. Yes, more people have one, but the top contenders haven't been doing them consistently.

Does anyone know how many of the top contenders have actually attempted at least one in every competition this year? All the young sprouts seem to be at least trying, but many of them don't have a female figure, yet and may lose it when they complete puberty.

As much as we talk about 3-3's, it is not required to win - even after more than 4 years of talking about them.

StillBlueLake said:

mathman said:

So far the progress has been invisible.

Click to expand...

Invisible?

Did you miss the one foot sections in the footwork, the extended spiral sequence, the improved spin positions, the 3toe/2loop and the more powerful jumps? Did you miss the added turns, especially in the beginning of Bolero

Click to expand...

(Hehe, I've been waiting for a chance to try nested quotes, which I just figured out how to do.)

I did notice all those things in Michelle's performance at the Campbell's event in October. Plus, it was an inspired performance marred only by a minor slip in the footwork section.

But by December at Marshalls (which I saw live), and again in January at Nationals, all of those improved elements had mysteriously disappeared. The opening moves seemed less interesting, the most striking of the new spin positions seemed to have been muted, the triple toe/triple loop was gone, and as for bigger jumps, she barely got off the ground on her triple Lutz/double toe at Nationals (although with perfect form and beautiful flow out). It seemed like she was back to square one.

So that is why I said, if she really is working toward a fuller program at Worlds, this progress has not been visible in the development of her performances to date this season.

StillBlueLake said:

Credit where its due please (IMO).

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Michelle's accomplishments -- gilded anew with her record-tying 9th ("Nine, Nine, Cloud Nine, my new favorite number!" -- have secured her a place in figure skating history that I will not see rivaled in my lifetime.

I was just thinking -- Michelle has more U.S. Championships than the last four U.S. ladies Olympic gold medalists combined (Dorothy Hamill, 3; Kristi Yamaguchi, 3 including two pairs titles; Tara Lipinski, 1; Sarah Hughes, 0).

Mathman

heyang said:

People keep on talking about the 3-3. Yes, more people have one, but the top contenders haven't been doing them consistently.

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Are you counting on the top contenders not doing them consistently? Think Sarah.

Does anyone know how many of the top contenders have actually attempted at least one in every competition this year? All the young sprouts seem to be at least trying, but many of them don't have a female figure, yet and may lose it when they complete puberty.

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Are you counting on them not to do them in Worlds?

As much as we talk about 3-3's, it is not required to win - even after more than 4 years of talking about them.

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The CoP is a cumulative scoring record. 3x3s atop the standard 3s bring in extra points and if they are done well there will be pluses.
Also included in the cumulative score are Spins. Can you imagine MK getting the highest score on Spins?duh! Also there is the footwork. Some of it is quite clear about turning to the left and right; some of it sooo subjective. Who's the judge's favorite? Transitions hardly exist in MKs routine. Better at Nats then at Campbells. Interpreting the character of the music. Ok. it's still a subjective point getter for the judge's favorite. Moves in the Field. Ok, but are they going to be higher than others? I don't think so.

We have to remember that there is no 'presentation' mark as we knew it. It is now outlined in different facets. There is no such thing as the "whole package" anymore, since the whole package is a cumulative score of all of the above.

The CoP is determined to make a skater 'the best that night' and barring any favoritism of the judges, that will happen. I think MK will be competing against several skaters who at present meet the CoP challenge better than she does. Of course it all depends on as few errors as possible but I would hate to see MK win a competition where the top competitors have melt downs.

Joe

Mathman said:

I did notice all those things in Michelle's performance at the Campbell's event in October. Plus, it was an inspired performance marred only by a minor slip in the footwork section.

But by December at Marshalls (which I saw live), and again in January at Nationals, all of those improved elements had mysteriously disappeared. The opening moves seemed less interesting, the most striking of the new spin positions seemed to have been muted, the triple toe/triple loop was gone, and as for bigger jumps, she barely got off the ground on her triple Lutz/double toe at Nationals (although with perfect form and beautiful flow out). It seemed like she was back to square one.

Mathman

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All the elements in Marshall's were upgraded from Campbell's just the performance was not there. The National's one looks like a throw together of Campbell's and Marshall's. Again she just do enough to make sure she win at Nationals, seems the #9 is most crutial for her.