Ladies LP (with Final Results)

Doggygirl said:

Fumie & Yoshie's Tech scores:

Fumie: SP Jumps: 17.96, Non-Jumps 15.10

Yoshie: SP Jumps, 19.10, Non-Jumps 12.72

Fumie LP Jumps: 39.62, Non-Jumps 18.28

Yoshie: LP Jumps: 43.46, Non-Jumps 11.77

In this example, Jumps still carry more weight than all other elements combined.

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I'm not sure that your example supports that conclusion, DG. It's not how many points you get that determines the winner, but whether you get more points than the other guy. If I get a million points and you get a million and 1, I still lose.

In this example, in the short program, Fumie lost to Yoshie by only 1.14 points on jumps, but beat her by 2.38 in spins, MITF, etc.

In the long, Fumie lost on jumps by 3.84 points, but won on other elements by 6.51.

In both cases the differential was greater for the non-jump elements, and that is why Fumie won the Tech portion in both contests.

This has interesting implications for worlds. If all the top skaters do more or less the same jumps, then getting those spins and spirals up to a level 2 or 3 may turn out to be crucial after all.

Mathman

The Japanese ladies field is very deep right now, obviously. However, none of them has competed against Michelle or Sasha in a serious competition this year. So i am reluctant to just hand it over to the Japanese ladies right now. The COP places less emphasis on jumps, so the US ladies can make up ground with their artistry. I really think all 3 US ladies have a chance of doing very well at worlds. I was not sure about Jenny Kirk until she proved herself worthy of the 3rd spot by skating well at 4CC. I don't expect her to medal at worlds but a top 10 finish is very realistic for her. I am sad about Bebe Liang. I really wanted her to skate great and be on the podium.

If Irina skates well, she being the sentimental favorite this year, could win the gold. However, if her health does not hold up, or the hometown energy from the audience adds to the pressure, she may not do that well.

Vash

I'm not a fan of Suguri's and tend to think she's overrated, but I thought she rocked in the SP. One of the best performances of the season so far.

I didn't think she pulled off the dominitrix all that well in the LP, and that it was a cut below in form and energy than the SP. She doesn't have great line, and I thought it was surprising that she chose legging-like pants that accentuated the form breaks (lack of stretch), instead of something looser, that would hide the break at her knees.

Hi there MM!

Mathman said:

I'm not sure that your example supports that conclusion, DG. It's not how many points you get that determines the winner, but whether you get more points than the other guy. If I get a million points and you get a million and 1, I still lose.

In this example, in the short program, Fumie lost to Yoshie by only 1.14 points on jumps, but beat her by 2.38 in spins, MITF, etc.

In the long, Fumie lost on jumps by 3.84 points, but won on other elements by 6.51.

In both cases the differential was greater for the non-jump elements, and that is why Fumie won the Tech portion in both contests.

This has interesting implications for worlds. If all the top skaters do more or less the same jumps, then getting those spins and spirals up to a level 2 or 3 may turn out to be crucial after all.

Mathman

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I don't think I articulated my point very well. I guess what I'm trying to point out is that jumps remain very important to the overall scoring in terms of where the total points are coming from. Maybe this is a better example.

Looking at TES scores for the LP's of the 12 ladies analyzed up in the Edge (COP Trivia). If you take the average of points earned for jumps as a % of TES, and non-jumps as a % of TES, the averages are 71% of points were awarded for jump elements, and 29% of points were awarded for non-jump elements. So jumps absolutely matter, they are just not "everything" in technical anymore.

Of course the balance shifts at the top of the list where the skaters like Slute who have the jumps AND the level 2/3 elements sit. While a "7-triple program" can't be counted on for gold anymore, let's not kid ourselves that once ALL the top ladies are competing against each other under COP for the first time, jumps matter, and thankfully so does the other stuff.

I predict our World Champion will perform at least 6 triples and all level 2/3 non-jump elements. Unless it's some sort of complete splatfest. Or....maybe I'm just suffering from Analysis Paralysis.

DG

Joesitz said:

I really think Irina will win Worlds. There is too much going for her. Aside from the home town, there is the admiration that so many have for her comeback, and also she is the only Russian Lady that has a chance at the Olys.

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I am rooting for Irina to win gold, however, I think Cohen has a great chance.
Cohen is skating to 2 pieces of sure fire music, she is unwilling to take any risk outside her comfort zone of Russian pieces that are popular . Dark eyes is a Russian Roma (Gypsy) piece that is well known to the audience. I bet audience will be clapping along. Although, IMHO, oh yawn, this is the third time she skates to this piece. Irina is skating to the Bolt. Even though it was composed by DSCH, the ballet never made it beyond a final dress rehearsal in April 1931 at the Mariinsky Theater -- then called the Leningrad Theater of Opera and Ballet -- where it was greeted with almost unanimous hostility by an invited audience of critics and factory workers. 74 years later, there is not indication that the audience will receive this piece any better. I admire Irina, for taking risk for her musical and artistic integrity. However, this move can backfire on her.

For the long, Cohen is choosing another Tchaikovsky tried and proven popular piece. OTOH, Irina is taking more risk for choosing Queen of spades. I love to see Irina being rewarded for her willingness to take musical risk.

rtureck said:

I am rooting for Irina to win gold, however, I think Cohen has a great chance.
Cohen is skating to 2 pieces of sure fire music, she is unwilling to take any risk outside her comfort zone of Russian pieces that are popular . Dark eyes is a Russian Roma (Gypsy) piece that is well known to the audience. I bet audience will be clapping along. Although, IMHO, oh yawn, this is the third time she skates to this piece. Irina is skating to the Bolt. Even though it was composed by DSCH, the ballet never made it beyond a final dress rehearsal in April 1931 at the Mariinsky Theater -- then called the Leningrad Theater of Opera and Ballet -- where it was greeted with almost unanimous hostility by an invited audience of critics and factory workers. 74 years later, there is not indication that the audience will receive this piece any better. I admire Irina, for taking risk for her musical and artistic integrity. However, this move can backfire on her.

For the long, Cohen is choosing another Tchaikovsky tried and proven popular piece. OTOH, Irina is taking more risk for choosing Queen of spades. I love to see Irina being rewarded for her willingness to take musical risk.

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I like Irina's unorthodox choices of music. I have to disagree that the audience will react with hostility to Shostakovich's Bolt. They will see Irina and they will root for her. I think they will love Sasha's music choices, and she will be well received in Moscow, although I dislike her choice of LP music (unsuitable for singles skating) and I don't care for her interpretation of Dark Eyes. However, Sasha's chances of winning worlds are the best in Moscow. My heart is with Irina though.

Vash

Yes but ...

Doggygirl said:

Fumie & Yoshie's Tech scores:

Fumie: SP Jumps: 17.96, Non-Jumps 15.10

Yoshie: SP Jumps, 19.10, Non-Jumps 12.72

Fumie LP Jumps: 39.62, Non-Jumps 18.28

Yoshie: LP Jumps: 43.46, Non-Jumps 11.77

In this example, Jumps still carry more weight than all other elements combined.

DG

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That's right the percentage of jump points in the total technical score is still in first place. But... the points given to non jumping elements are much safer to get. Falls are very rare on spins or footwork sequences, and a skater generally perform those elements equally well (or badly) from one event to the next (OK someday they may be better than another ... but do the judges even notice that ?). The GoE on those elements is also lower than on triple jumps. So you basically take the base value, and the final score will not be very different from it. That's not the same for jumps, where errors are more likely to happen.
For example, according to the numbers you mention, Yoshie is down by 6.5 pts compared to Fumie in spins and footwork. That's the value of a good triple Lutz. If both of them attempt the same jumps (which is not the case, but I assume that to make my point clearer) Yoshie has to expect 2 major mistakes from Fumie to have a better technical score. Indeed one would not be enough because even a fall on a triple will only deduct 3+1=4pts. So there must be at least 2 important mistakes. And that's not even considering the components score where Fumie has a much higher standard! So, Yoshie has very little hope to be ranked above Fumie.
IMO the levels given to spins or spirals lie too much on flexibility. If a skater has that quality she will easily gather points ... even though she may end up doing Bielmann's anythings all the time. That does not say her skating will be more pleasant or more artistic than another one with lesss extreme positions.

Your point seems logical on the surface...

alain707 said:

But... the points given to non jumping elements are much safer to get. Falls are very rare on spins or footwork sequences, and a skater generally perform those elements equally well (or badly) from one event to the next (OK someday they may be better than another ... but do the judges even notice that ?). The GoE on those elements is also lower than on triple jumps. .

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BUT... If the points for non-jumping elements are so much safer with significantly lower risk of falls or major mistakes, then why are skaters like Onda, Ando, and others not doing level 2/3 non-jump elements as opposed to 1/2 non-jump elements? If they are so easy and safe, why aren't we seeing them from more skaters?

On the other hand...maybe the COP levels and subsequent score opportunities are appropriate???? Maybe these level 2/3 non-jump elements ARE really difficult?

Just Wondering...

DG

Doggygirl said:

On the other hand...maybe the COP levels and subsequent score opportunities are appropriate???? Maybe these level 2/3 non-jump elements ARE really difficult?DG

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Having done some skating in my youth, I know that mastering spirals, spread eagles, Ina Bauers, etc., all take time. Although, they can be faked on the flat, they are difficult for any skater who is not solid on edging. However, once a skater has got his edges in order, there should be no difficulty in 2/3 non-jump elements except if they contain a change of edge. I don't go for the level 3 in these non-jump elements, but hey, the judges do.

Joe

Ok...

So Alain and Joe, if I understand your points correctly, you are saying the level 2/3 non-jump elements are safer than more difficult jump elements, right?

If that's the case, then why at this stage of the COP game (first full season, second GP series season) are we still seeing a preponderance of level 1 non-jump elements from:

Kirk
Sokolova
Kostner
Ando
Phaneuf

And no level 3 elements at all from:

Phaneuf
Ando
Poykio
Kostner
Sebestyen
Liashenko
Rochette
Sokalova
Kirk

Among the top ladies who will be at World's, the only ones I've noted who have any level 3 non-jump elements in the LP or SP are:

Slute
Shiz
Fumie

I suspect we will see at least one from Cohen, and maybe Kwan.

I'm not trying to be difficult - just pointing out that if level 2/3 non-jump element points are easier to get, then why aren't more ladies going for it??

DG