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Thread: Who do you think will win Worlds?

  1. #1
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    Who do you think will win Worlds?

    I think it's pretty obvious that Plushy has this title in the bag.
    I wonder, for ladies, who will win?
    Everyone is already crowning Irina Slutskaya the next World and Olympic champion, but I think it might be closer than some think.
    Joannie Rochette is awesome! She has the best ladies LP out there, no overloading of just one element (biellmans) and I think she should be rewarded for her various moves and choreography. Also, she has landed a 7 triple with 2 3/3's program, of which no senior lady has been able to come close to this season. If she outskates Irina, will the judges let her win?
    There is also Michelle Kwan, the question mark. Some are saying she won't even go to Worlds. I have never seen her back down from a challenge, so I think she'll go. Some are saying she'll flop with CoP. I don't see how this system, that is supposed to reward the complete package in skating, could possibly overlook Kwan. She has been, like it or not, the most dominant skater of this generation. If she suddenly starts getting horrible scores, there is something wrong with the system. Unless Kwan bombs, I see her on the podium.
    Sasha Cohen is reportedly working on adding a 3/3 and possibly a quad to her LP for Worlds. Reports also say she is looking strong and is ready for Worlds.
    Then there are the Japanese ladies. Nobody really knows what Shizuka and Ando have in store for us. If Shizuka puts togethre another LP like she did for Worlds last year (without the cheats on the triples and 3/3's) I don't think there is any way Irina would beat her.
    So, what are your thoughts?
    My predictions:
    1. Shizuka
    2 Rochette
    3. Irina, Michelle, Sasha or Ando.
    I hope Irina can live up to the hype that is usually reserved for Cohen.

    I already switched my predictions. That's how close I think it will be.
    Last edited by Fossi; 02-19-2005 at 01:46 PM.

  2. #2
    Figure Skating Fan Hikaru's Avatar
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    It is definitely going to be an interesting competition, but I have no idea who could win. Irina is the favorite, having worlds at home, the audience there love her (I'm sure the support for the hometown kid over there is going to be something like what we saw for Michelle at Worlds in 2003), however the last competition she was not in the best form. I'm sure she's working to maintain the quality she had earlier in the season.

    From what I saw in the GP series, and IMO, Joannie Rochette has the best choreography (I love the dance steps she does, really gets into the theme of teh Firebird), she has good jump combinations, and she was fairly consistent with them in the series. I think the GPF was a little off, but again, I'm sure she'll be working to maintain the quality of the performance.

    Michelle has a hard music to skate, and she really needs to get the feeling of the music to the audience (I mean, the music is repetitive, so the excitment of the program relies on how the skater portraits the presentation, imo). I didn't like how she did this at Nationals, comparing to the other performances early in the season, she didn't look like comfortable from the beginning (maybe because of the stress of tying the record, who knows). She has said a lot that she has a program taht is CoP friendly, so we'll see how it looks. Sure, Kwan is one of the mos dominant skaters there (right there with Slutskaya, they have a history and so on), but I wouldn't go as far as saying that if Kwan doesn't get high marks, the system then has something wrong. To me, the 6.0 system was always focused on skaters not falling down when jumping (if they wanted to keep a lead), whereas in this system you have other areas to get more points as well. Everything counts. I haven't read anything that implies that Kwan won't go to worlds (actually she said she was going, last time I saw an interview). Some months ago I read a report in which Kwan was talking how hard it was now with the differnt changes of position in spins, she was talking about the layback and how she had to stop doing it for a while 'cause it was hurting her back a little. The big question is what kind of CoP program she has prepared. would it be very different from what we have seen at Nationals? that is the big question mark, IMO

    Sasha, IMO, is the skater that best finish her movements, and has very interesting and unusual positions in the spins. Her problem is with nailing all the jumps. Last time I remember her doing a triple-triple was at worlds 2003 in the free skate. Maybe now with Mr. Nicks she can get again to land it (I have the impression that sher jumps were higher when training with him, not sure). Her short program is not my favorite (I mean, I liked it, but ceratin parts of the music I didn't, until I saw it severla times. I'm half spanish, so the Malagueña is my type of music lol!), however I think it will play good with the russian crowd. I love the free skate, and I guess what people would be looking here is for Sasha nailing the jumps. Is she really going for the quad? I know she said "another jump", but I haven't read if it was a quad. Anyways, this is a girl that trains hard, and you bet she'll have a nice CoP program as well.

    The J-girls!! First of all I'm happy that Fumie will be at worlds, I love her skating. Shizuka has a beautiful program, and I hope the boot problems are gone by the time she goes to Worlds. I think the problem here is more because of the pressure of being the world champion, not only her own expectations, but the pressure of knowing that others expect more of you. It's all in the mind. Miki has a strong program, and I think this music suits her perfectly. Her openning jump, a 3-3-2 I think was being downgraded a bit on the loop, maybe because the shoulder injury was bothering her? I think that was also one of the reasosn she wasn't doing the quad. Will she do it at worlds? another big question. BTW I was watching some videos of Miki and Mao, from 2002 I think. Miki did the quad (I think it was in the japanese nationals), she landed it but I think it was just a tad underotated. Mao did a triple axel and it was amazing, very clean. Back to Miki. I think the season qwithout the quad has helped her to focus on the other details of her skating. However I don't think this will stop her from going for that quad, if she feels comfortable.

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    I'm disturbed by the "Worlds is in Moscow and that makes Irina the favorite" attitude. If thats the case then 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics gave the handicap to Kwan and Cohen and so did Worlds in Washington...right from the get go.

    Irina's skated awfully well this year considering she's on a comeback from health issues and the loss of an entire year. The episode at Euro's confirms she is vulnerable though and that her health is her biggest weakness. She's studied COP and has embraced the new challenges and she's taken her skating to a whole new level. Armed with an ambitious short program that shouts "look at me" her skating will depend on just how healthy she is. Big question mark, as always now. Huge pressure to maintain her winning streak , grab the crown for Russia, and be the best she can be for the Russian crowd and hometown friends. Known for hating to skate in front of her home crowd she pulled off the best skate of the season at COR and showed she's still capable of the difficult 3/3. Can memories and confidence from COR help propel her to another crown.. She's got the programs and the package but does she have the stamina to go 3 rounds?

    The US ladies have devoted the whole season to intensive training. Neither showed stellar results at Nationals. No reason they should not show up well rested and in top physical condition armed to the teeth. Will they have even a full set of triples let alone a 3/3?. Cohen is a bit versed in COP but she no longer has mama TT.. Kwan hasn't committed energy to anything but Nationals and Worlds and hasn't completed a 3/3 in several years continuing to lessen pressure on herself by the event.. Cohen will continue to feel the pressure of being the best but not being able to deliver when it counts. Cohen got her triples back the week before Nationals so I'd hardly expect a 3/3 from her.

    Shizuka aims to peak at Worlds, as of 2/7 she was breaking in yet another set of boots. She is back in Japan with her old coach so I don't know what bears out for TT and her future. Shizuka seemed better technically under Callahan. Shiz is armed with two different 3/3's but she has not been as on technically this year, the pressure to keep her crown is going to be huge.

    Rochette and Ando are the darkhorses. Rochette the relative unknown before her extraordinary performances on GP series, GPF and Canadian Nationals has made her a household name in figure skating circles. A name that already has next Olympic champion stenciled beside it. Known for her gutsy technical prowess and artsy packaging will she take her confidence from her earlier events and trounce her way to a podium finish or God forbid, even higher or will she succumb to the "peaking too soon" syndrome. She has the momentum right now as well as the 3/3's. Hard working and gutsy - did I say '06 Olympic Champion?

    Ando also a gutsy lady also not afraid of work hard. Armed with the most difficult 3/3 in the business, I see a lot of medals in her future but not this year. She'll finish in top 6.

    I see Sebestyn, Liashenko and Sokolova to round out the top finishers with Kirk and Poykio at the end of the pack.

  4. #4
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    I don't know enough about the skaters to really be able to make a prediction...the 2005 Worlds will be the first really important figure skating competition I will ever have wached. I can't wait.

    I can't predict, but I can tell you who I'm rooting for. I'm a big fan of Jeff Buttle, so I can't help but cheer for him, even though even I can see that (barring some incredible and unforseen disaster) Plushenko is the obvious choice to win for the men. But I like his skating too, so I wouldn't mind seeing him win. I do hope Jeff at least medals though.

    I know even less about the laides, epsecially the amatures. Kind of nice actually; I can just sit back and not worry about the results as much. I'll probably cheer on Michelle Kwan though, if she goes, just because I've always found her entertaining.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wvgal57
    Cohen got her triples back the week before Nationals so I'd hardly expect a 3/3 from her.
    For about 2 weeks before Nationals, I read from several different sources that Sasha was doing clean 7 triple runthroughs of her Nut program. Everything I read was about how solid and strong she looked, which lead many to predict she would win Nationals.

    There are three ladies who will fight it out for gold. Irina, Shizuka, and Michelle.
    Shiz hasn't had a great season, but she is fierce, has great programs, and her short program will help keep her ahead of her competion. Plus, being the current World Champ doesn't hurt.

    Michelle has been skating well all season, and all of her elements have been getting stronger with every competition. She is a fierce competitor, and wont have the pressure that she had at Nationals. The only thing that could hold Michelle back is the level of some of her elements, namely spins. Michelle is a great skater and will do well under COP.

    Irina, has all the pressure on her, which is not good. Irina is a tough lady and I'm sure she'll do everything she can, and to her advantage she has the most COP ready programs, so she does have a bit of room for mistakes. Worlds, IMO, will come down to MK vs. Irina once again. I don't mind either of them winning, they're both strong, classy ladies and superior skaters.

    I love Joannie but I don't think she has a shot at the Gold. She may have an outside chance for the bronze. But Joannie has not beaten Shiz all season, despite Shiz's bad performances. That tells you all you need to know. All you have to do is look at the overall season and look at who has beaten whom and that gives you all the answers you need. The biggest question will be whether Joannie can beat Sasha and Fumie for a possible 4th place finish. A 4th place would set her up nicely for the Olympics.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdreampixie
    I love Joannie but I don't think she has a shot at the Gold. She may have an outside chance for the bronze. But Joannie has not beaten Shiz all season, despite Shiz's bad performances. That tells you all you need to know. All you have to do is look at the overall season and look at who has beaten whom and that gives you all the answers you need. The biggest question will be whether Joannie can beat Sasha and Fumie for a possible 4th place finish. A 4th place would set her up nicely for the Olympics.
    Rochette (CC, TEB) and Arakawa (NHK, COR) met once this year, at the Grand Prix Final. In the SP Arakawa scored 64.10 (or 1.36 less than Slutskaya), including a tech score of 34.10 (on base of 29.7) and 30 for pre. She received +GOE on everything but her 3F, for which she received base score, and she had L2 footwork and spins, and L3 spiral sequence. Arakawa had a strong SP.

    Rochette, admittedly nervous, received a -1 on her 3F, although reasonably well on her other elements, but gained "only" 29.2 in tech, or .9 above base of 28.3. Her base difficulty was less than Arakawa's, based on having L2 footwork, spiral, and one spin, and two L1 spins, and a 2T in combination vs. Arakawa's ending 3Lo. (It seems to me rather ridiculous that the differential in difficulty between all of those elements was only 1.4 points, and that a serpentine pass which covers far more ice and had more direction changes is weighted the same as a straightline pass, but that's another discussion.)

    Arakawa led Rochette by a rather unsurmountable (at that level) 9.42 points after the SP.

    In the LP Rochette needed all four L2 elements and small incremental gains in some elements in GOE in order to offset the points she lost on four jump elements. (Her tech score of 48.44 was 2.46 points below her base of 50.90.) Arakawa was even worse technically, with a low start value of 44.30 for two downgraded jumps and the same number of L2's and L1's as Rochette (and no L3's) , from which she lost 4.40 points, including a -1 deduction for a fall. Technically, her score was 8.54 points below Rochette, but she made back 3.68 points in her PCS differential, for a total lead for Rochette of 4.86 points in the LP.

    Combining LP and SP scores, Arakawa led Rochette by 3.56 points for the silver medal.

    I think what's key is not that an slightly sub-par Rochette did beat a weak Arakawa in the GPF LP -- a clean Rochette in the LP would have come with .5 of Arakawa for the competition -- but that:

    a. Despite a comparatively poor and dispirited LP by Arakawa, she still gained 3.68 points more than Rochette in PCS, including higher scores in each category and

    b. When Arakawa was "on" like she was in the SP, Rochette couldn't touch her in technical difficulty, quality, or PCS.

  7. #7
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    The last several posters have made great observations, IMHO.

    WVgirl, I do think that the home crowd advantage plays a role. U.S. skaters did have an advantage in Salt Lake City and certainly in Washington in 2003. Judges are only human. They would rather hear cheers than boos. Also, Michelle, especially, seems to draw energy from a supportive audience. And the ISU likes to give recognition to the host country. Look at the results of some of the grand prix events, not to mention the Dortmund championship last year.

    Mathman

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    Source??

    Quote Originally Posted by Fossi
    There is also Michelle Kwan, the question mark. Some are saying she won't even go to Worlds. I have never seen her back down from a challenge, so I think she'll go. .
    Hi Fossi. I too hope to see Rochette do well!

    I'm wondering where you are hearing that "some say Michelle might not go to World's." I have only seen that mentioned as SHEER AND TOTAL speculation by a few posters on other boards - nothing that seemed to come from a credible source, or any source at all. Just curious if you've seen something different.

    As things go with MK on the boards, the slightest speculation often sets off huge debates over nothing. I just hope no wild fires along those lines get going around here.

    DG

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    As I said in another post. Irina Slutskaya has the most going for her at this Worlds competition. Aside from being the home town favorite, she is winning alocades for making a strong comeback from serious illness, and she has a bag of tricks which rack up a lot of points.

    She is a very cautious skater and does her jumps as if she was learning them. (willl not miss the jumps but could underrotate).

    Her stroking is like Witt. She sells it to the audience with huffs and puffs (and it sells. Fans and judges see it as the speediest.)

    Spins are best in the camel position and definitely in the Bielman position (the Bielmans will rack up the points over other skaters.)

    Moves in Field and Footwork in this year's LP are included in the Program as per requirements. (nothing special but they are there except for those Bielman spirals which will rack up points.)

    All in all, and in my opinion, Irina will win unless she has a very obvious meltdown.

    The rest of the podium will be up for grabs, and that's another topic.

    Joe

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    Skating Freak Barbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fossi
    Sasha Cohen is reportedly working on adding a 3/3 and possibly a quad to her LP for Worlds. .

    I just snorted diet coke out of my nose. Sasha needs to work on standing up after a single triple jump!

    I think gold will come down to Slutskaya, Kwan and Arakawa. Rochette, Cohen, Ando and maybe another (Sebestyn? Onda, if she is going) will be fighting for the other two places, with whoever DOESN'T win. Two months ago I would have thought Irina had it locked up, but after Euros.....who knows?

    Kasey

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Onda isn't going, but Surguri is. I think she has a good chance to medal.

    MM

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Onda isn't going, but Surguri is. I think she has a good chance to medal.

    MM
    According to the report, both of them skated their life time best. I suspected that Fummie would top her 4CC performance at the worlds. And with the fact that she has never been known as consistancy skater, I'd put my money on Sasha and Joanny. Ando is good at jumps but her other elements and PCS scores still can't match the difficult of top ladies. That would gave all top ladies one jump advantage on her.

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    worlds

    Joesitz, I agree Irina has the most going for her in her hometown. My bet is on Michelle peaking at Worlds and Irina making mistakes. The fun will be in the judges doing whatever they can to gift Irina and then the uproar. I think Irina has peaked and her health is not holding up at this point. Im betting on an upset as in 2000 I believe that was the yr. Irina won everything and lost Worlds. Wouldnt it be great if the winner just won for skating and not who has an advantage or inflated marks and all the baloney for cheating that goes on. Oh Im wishing on a star. Anyhoo Im betting on an upset and Michelle wins.

  14. #14
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    IMO, there are THREE people that are in contention for (have a decent shot at) the Gold:

    Irina S.
    Kwan
    Arakawa.

    A victory by any of the three mentioned above would NOT be a shocker or surprise win IMO. A victory by anyone else would. (Imagine if Suguri or Rochette or Cohen were to win!)

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    Plush is the big favorite. It would take a meltdown of titanic proportions for someone else to win.

    Irina is the favorite in the ladies, but not as strongly. After Euros, I am definitely seeing some chinks in her armor. If she falters, Michelle has the best chance to win. Arakawa winning is unlikely given her crappy season and the fact she was MIA at Japanese Nationals. She is the reigning world champ so I think she has a slight chance. Sasha has also had a crap season. She won't win either, though she certainly might be on the podium. Rochette, Ando and Suguri are also possible podium finishers depending on how things play out.

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