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Thread: Michelle will not win Worlds

  1. #1
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Michelle will not win Worlds

    Sorry about this but I gave reasons for Irina winning and now I am pouring out my heart why MK will not win the worlds.

    1. She has little fan base in Europe and probably none in Moscow. Trip is expensive so not too many Americans will be in the audience and about half the American audience has another American favorite, but Michelle will get polite applause from the whole audience.

    2. She is perceived as being around too long by fans and judges (although no longer than Irina).

    3. She will probably do all her tricks adequately if not more than adequately (no trick will win the audience or judges except, maybe, the change of edge spiral but that will be considered "old hat")

    4. She will be nitpicked on each element as not being the 'best' (despite the fact that no skater is the 'best' in all elements.)

    5. Her music this year will be considered monotonous with little change for diversity in stroking(although she shows the character of the music).

    6. The lack of 3x3s will haunt her.

    Still she is the most musical skater with strong stroking and solid elements (but that will be considered as "old hat", too).

    The big question: Will the judges put her on the podium?

    Joe

  2. #2
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    You know the old joke, if two guys are in the water and a shark is after them, I don't have to outswim the shark, I just have to outswim you!

    Michelle does not have to skate perfectly, just better than the others.

    The reason why I think Michelle has the best chance is that she has the best control over her nerves, and thus she is the most capable of delivering what she is most capable of delivering. I do not think the CoP will be a problem for her, whether she makes the promised upgrades in spins and in-betweens or not. As it has always been, you win by landing all your jumps and racking up the points in the presentation categories.

    Irina, Shizuka, and Sasha all have more at stake in this contest than Michelle does. There is no reason why Michelle shouldn't just do the proverbial "skate and have fun" and let the chips fall where they may. Irina may be the favorite of the home crowd, and the judges may secretly hope that she skates well, but she still has to do it. I am still naive enough to believe that whoever skates the best will win.

    BTW -- I expect to see Ando on the podium.

    Mathman

  3. #3
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    I just hope it's a "Best of the Best" competition....

    ....rather than a "Best of the Worst" competition with all (or at least most) of the top contenders skating their absolute best.

    There are certainly a number of top ladies who can challenge Michelle if Irina falters. And I too hope the best skater of the day wins, not based on reputation. I know, I know...that might be a pretty ambitious dream!!

    While I tried to stay open minded about Michelle's choice of Bolero, IMO it's not working to Michelle's best advantage and Joe, it's sounds like we agree on that point. As you also pointed out Joe, Michelle won't have the home ice advantage where the crowd roars no matter what, like they tend to do for Michelle in the US. There is nothing about the Bolero program so far this year IMO that will help Michelle get a standing O in Moscow, and I don't think the music helps that situation at all. But Michelle has also stated it's still "in progress" so who knows how the program might change for World's. I still say "bad music choice."

    But....I would NEVER count Michelle out. She is a very tough competitor especially at World's. So....I guess we will all just have to sit on the edge of our seats for a few more weeks!!!

    DG

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    Skating GOD, please, please,...., read this thread.

  5. #5
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mzheng
    Skating GOD, please, please,...., read this thread.
    Should I withdraw my post, MZheng?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Should I withdraw my post, MZheng?
    It's OK, yours not in the first one. HE is so busy that MIGHTY HE only pay attention to the first one anyway. lol

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    I think Michelle and her coach know what needs to be done for her to compete good at worlds. We do not know if she has a 3/3 planned, but I think she has some ready to go. Michelle has been in this game a long time not to be ready for worlds. Joe, people also said Michelle could not win worlds in 2000 because she had not competed outside the states much, and we all know how that turned out. To me it does not matter if she wins or loses ( even though it would be great if she did win) as long as she is on the podium I will be happy. She can take her first experience with COP and work it for next year for the big O's. Go Michelle
    Last edited by flowjo35; 02-21-2005 at 05:45 PM.

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    Michelle Wins

    Not sure about that Jositz, Michelle hasnt peaked this season and Irina has. Im betting Michelle wins this yr. There may be a question as to whether they will give her the Gold.

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    Joe you seem to be down on Michelle since last year's Worlds. I think she will skate with COP very much in mind. I think she will rack up enough points to be on the podium. I actually think she will win. She knows the rules have changed and that she cannot expect the response from the judges that she has had in the past. I think Irina will score better on the tech elements but will be bested on the second series of marks by Michelle. I do not think Irina will have the stamina to skate with sustained energy and power to win the LP (in the final round, not the qualifying round.) Michelle should not be counted out.

  10. #10
    Custom Title brad640's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    2. She is perceived as being around too long by fans and judges (although no longer than Irina).
    Her competitors probably perceive her as being around for too long because she has dominated for 10 years. Although some people have beaten her, they have done so by capitalizing on Michelle's (rare) mistakes and giving the performances of their life. Michelle is always in contention for gold and this year is no different.

  11. #11
    Down With It
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    I agree. I think people are quick to count out MK because of the new scoring system. But she has solid basics and is a very reliable skater, so she has that going for her. And I think she is the only American lady that can really challenge for the podium. I actually will give her a spot on my prediction sheet. I will say she's 2nd or 3rd. Maybe even win the thing if Irina stumbles. I think Kwan is dangerous when put in the position of the underdog, so everyone else should look out for her. I wouldn't count her out just yet. Same for Irina, and Arakawa as well.

    Upstarts: Suguri? Rochette? We'll just have to see.

    Looks to me as if almost everyone else is zzzzz. No one else stands a chance of creeping up, IMO.

  12. #12
    Down With It
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    Quote Originally Posted by brad640
    Although some people have beaten her, they have done so by capitalizing on Michelle's (rare) mistakes and giving the performances of their life. Michelle is always in contention for gold and this year is no different.
    But the thing is, a WIN is a WIN. Bottom line is, Kwan was there, she didn't skate her best, and others took advantage of that fact and gave it their all. It doesn't take away ANYTHING from their victory. They beat Kwan and they should consider that an accomplishment. Even Cohen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yelyoh
    Joe you seem to be down on Michelle since last year's Worlds.
    Instead of World, I got the feeling that it began since last US Nationals. But I do feel this is a rational and logical post from Joe without putting down of Michelle. And I'm in agreement with Mzheng about requesting Skategod to read Joe's post.

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    I also agree with mzheng. IMHO, Moscow will be decided by Peggy Fleming's predictions. She has been on a roll the past two years -- at Nats '04, she predicted Cohen; for Worlds '04, it was Kwan; beginning of this season "the one to beat" was Shizuka; and Kwan was supposed to give a great skate at Nats. If Peggy predicts Irina, Kwan will win; if Peggy predicts Kwan, Michelle is toast.

  15. #15
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yelyoh
    Joe you seem to be down on Michelle since last year's Worlds. I think she will skate with COP very much in mind. I think she will rack up enough points to be on the podium. I actually think she will win. She knows the rules have changed and that she cannot expect the response from the judges that she has had in the past. I think Irina will score better on the tech elements but will be bested on the second series of marks by Michelle. I do not think Irina will have the stamina to skate with sustained energy and power to win the LP (in the final round, not the qualifying round.) Michelle should not be counted out.
    Yelyoh and everyone. If you read my post slowly you will see that I am not down on MK. I'm just pointing out what she has to offer at Worlds and how it will be perceived. Maybe I am looking for a bad prediction after the fact, and she will skate her best under the CoP. I certainly hope so but I am pessimistic. Win or lose I anticipate a much smarter MK at the Olys.

    Joe

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