Michelle will not win Worlds

millie said:

Michelle didn't turn into a pumpkin yet, she hasn't skated under the CoP yet. How will the same skills that won her the 6.0's help her in the new system? It's a totally different scoring system and until she skates with that new system, nobody can predict how she is going to do. In previous threads they were talking about certain skaters that hasn't had perfect seasons, I don't think that there isa skater that has a perfect season. With regard to Michelle winning or even getting on the podium---You shouldn't count your chickens before they are hatched.

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Agreed. If Michelle indeed did turn into a pumpkin under the COP, there would be something seriously wrong with this sport. That would mean in all this decade, Michelle was mistakenly awarded the gold. How ridiculous This would be a big insult to the sport. How would then FS be respected if this happened?

The COP is not so different from the 6.0. Unlike the figures era when an average skater could still win lots of golds as long as she was exceptionally good at figures, under the 6.0 system one had to be an above average skater to be able to win multiple golds. Michelle has shown she has exceptional skating skills, technically and artistically speaking. If she wants to upgrade her moves to milk the COP points, she definitely can. The reason she has been the same old same old since 2002 as far as moves and spins are concerned is because she was "lazy". Ok, seriously, in truth, I would think she was too smart a competitor. She knew exactly what was required to win under the 6.0, hence the same old same old watered down programs. I would think it's a big mistake for any competitor to not take Michelle seriously as a challenger under the COP because everyone knows Michelle does have the skating skills. And lastly, the second set of scores is highly subjective, hence, it's actually not much different from the second set of markes under the 6.0 system. If Michelle could routinely score 5.8-6.0 under the old presentation scoring system, I would bet my last dollar that she should score very well under the COP presentation marks.

Any CoP estimates for Michelle Kwan?

I am certain that the perspectives of Michelle Kwan and her team regarding Michelle's circumstance and goals and history is quite different; very, very different, actually, from that of others. The fans of all ages and opinions, the press from all areas around the globe and followers of the sport all have different perspectives and ideas than what is reality in the life and planning of Michelle Kwan.

My best guess is that Michelle is using her considerable resources to obtain a certain goal. This goal has been determined by Michelle herself, and while she states publicly that she remains Olympic eligible because of a love and passion for competitive figure skating, it is clear that as a great Champion whom has come close twice to Olympic Gold, Olympic Gold is her only goal yet to be achieved. So yes, I believe she is sticking around for another chance at Olympic Gold, which she must crave and truly believe she can win.

In order to win, Michelle Kwan must use her talent and considerable resources to research and develop an overall plan of action, making adjustments along the way, for her training and competitive schedule culminating in her being the most prepared she can be under the rules to win with her best performance.

Her schedule to get to this point will make prioritizing the competitions a necessity. The year's World's, while more important than the rest of this year's events, is not as important as next year's ISU events for Michelle ending up in March, 2006. She is probably training her body according to a calender schedule, not according to this year's past competition schedule. She also must plan financially and do Marshall's to earn money for training, etc.

One thing I am certain she and her team has done is to sit down and evaluate her program from the POV of the CoP and the technical specialists and judges. We can do the same thing, and has anyone tried to assign her long and short programs a base mark? We can try to be objective about her programs and use the CoP to our advantage as fans to approximate where she could place.

Her LP will have:
3Z-2T, 3Z, 3F-2T, 3T-2L, 3S, 3T, 2A
4 spins: Two may be a Level 2, the others Level 1 with good GOE
Her steps sequences should be a Level 2 (SlSt) and Level 3 (SpSt)

Her component scores, which do not seem to vary much when given out right now should be as high as the other top skaters, perhaps in the 7.5 - 8.25 range depending on the generosity of the judges. If we estimate 7.75 for the 5 components, this seems correct given her prior placements of third in the world last year.

In all estimation, she will probably have a base value of 54-55 points in the technical score and 60-62 points in the second mark, or a possible 115+ points for the Free Skate.

In the Short Program, her elements can also be evaluated:
3Z-2T, 3F, 2A with good GOE
3 spins: probably attempting to have two Level 2 spins, and one Level 1 with good GOE
Spiral Step of Level 3, Footwork Step of Level 2

Her Program Component Scores should be quite high, as this year the SP choice as a program is Michelle's strength (I believe a conscious choice by her and her coach to earn as many points as possible as all points carry over in the competition). She should score 7.75 - 8.0 points on average. She can estimate a base mark for the Short Program of about 60 - 62 points.

A conservative estimate places Michelle CoP base mark in the 175 +/- 5 points range. Where does this place her this year in the overall scheme of things?

The ISU GPF, Europeans and 4 Continents were all won with scores in the 168 (poor performance at Europeans by Slutskaya) to 180 point range (GPF for Slutskaya).

Michelle Kwan is planning to be very competitive under the CoP, to be sure. Her planned level is right up there with the others, and her scores will probably be in the 175 range for these two phases. But we must also factor in the Qualifying Rounds.

Anyone care to factor in those numbers? I think it would be beating a dead horse and is a moot point. Michelle is competitive at the top of the sport by all estimations, and should score well under CoP.

ChiSk8Fan said:

Her LP will have:
3Z-2T, 3Z, 3F-2T, 3T-2L, 3S, 3T, 2A
4 spins: Two may be a Level 2, the others Level 1 with good GOE
Her steps sequences should be a Level 2 (SlSt) and Level 3 (SpSt)

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I don't see Michelle attempting a 3f-2t because I can't recall her ever attempting that combination before. Also, I hope she will not choose to omit the triple loop from her LP again at worlds.

ChiSk8Fan, I kind of hope that you are wrong about all this planning and plotting and hand-wringing going on in Michelle's mind. The ladies who have won the Olympics -- Sarah, Tara, Oksana -- mostly have been teenagers who threw caution to the winds and just went out there and skated.

Mathman

Hi MM...

Mathman said:

ChiSk8Fan, I kind of hope that you are wrong about all this planning and plotting and hand-wringing going on in Michelle's mind. The ladies who have won the Olympics -- Sarah, Tara, Oksana -- mostly have been teenagers who threw caution to the winds and just went out there and skated.

Mathman

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While I think programs MUST be plotted by Team MK for Cop, I think you are making a good point. Another reason why it might have been advantageous for her to get the "first time out under COP" and actual competition feedback prior to Worlds. But if anyone can pull it off, I'm sure Michelle can.

I like the way Johnny has described this process, if I understood his comments through the season correctly. It sounds like he leaves all the plotting and planning for score potential up to his team, and he just concentrates on skating. Somehow though, I see Michelle being more involved than that.

Chisk8Fan, interesting analysis of Michelle's programs. Looking at the high LP and high SP scores this season, there is a pack of ladies that have been in these ranges.

SP: Slute 65.46, Shiz 64.2, Fumie 61.44, Sebestyen 61.28

LP: Slute 121.9, Ando 119.46, Fumie 117.22, Shiz 114.86, Rochette 113.08

I have no doubt that MK is a contender. But I don't think anyone is a shoo in. I hope they all throw caution to the wind and skate their best.

DG

I don't think Michelle is agonizing over COP. I'm sure she and her team have analyzed it enough to know where things need to be improved, etc. But in the end, she can only do what she can do. If that means a 3/3 ... great. If not ... then she will do the best she is capable of, and how much more can anyone ask of an athlete.

As far as Bolero, I think at Nats she was thinking too much through it. She was nervous about the record 9 titles and going back and rewatching it, you can tell the "attitude" wasn't quite there yet. I have no doubt it will be better at Worlds, but maybe it will never be an earth shattering program. But you know what? It doesn't have to be.
I think Spartacus is already a masterpiece, but I'm certain there will be a few tweaks there as well.
I expect her to fare well at Worlds. I really don't care if she wins ... any spot on the podium would be fine with me.

NYMKfan, I certainly agree about Spartacus being a masterpeice. The music drives the program, so all Michelle has to do is sell it. And sell it she does! Will the CoP allow the judges to say, Whoa, that was a masterpiece -- 6.0! 6.0!(?)

Bolero I can see having the same impact as The Feeling Begins. At first I did not really count The Feeling Begins among Michelle's greatest creations. Yet that's the one that I find myself playing over and over. Win or lose, if she steps up to the plate with Bolero it will be a memorable experience.

DoggyGirl said:

I have no doubt that MK is a contender. But I don't think anyone is a shoo in. I hope they all throw caution to the wind and skate their best.

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That is my biggest concern about the CoP. I do not believe that it encourages skaters to throw caution to the wind at all. In fact, I think it punishes skaters who take a risk.

I reluctanly agree with Apache's analysis (post 41 above). I say relunctanly because the bottom line is that either Michelle or Irina can win worlds with a cautious, boring effort. I hope not. I hope Michelle skates the pants off Bolero, falls down doing a triple Lutz/triple loop, finishes third and sticks her bronze medal up Speedy's nose.

Mathman

Mathman....

Mathman said:

I hope Michelle skates the pants off Bolero, falls down doing a triple Lutz/triple loop, finishes third and sticks her bronze medal up Speedy's nose.

Mathman

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You are being way too polite about where the medal should go in this scenario.

DG

Doggygirl said:

You are being way too polite about where the medal should go in this scenario.

DG

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I TOTALLY agree!!!!

Mathman said:

I hope Michelle skates the pants off Bolero, falls down doing a triple Lutz/triple loop, finishes third and sticks her bronze medal up Speedy's nose.

Mathman

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I spilt coffee all over my keyboard.

MzHeng

I hope you are right about not worrying too much about her position after the SP. I still worry that coming from 4th to 1st, in any system, is more problematic. Having said that, I still want to see a lutz-loop in her SP because I think that's what Irina is going to do, and probably Shizuka a swell.

kyla2 said:

Having said that, I still want to see a lutz-loop in her SP because I think that's what Irina is going to do, and probably Shizuka a swell.

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You mean 3Lutz/3Loop or 3Lutz/2Loop? If it is 3Lutz/3Loop, then don't put your money on it, this is not the one of 3/3 comb Rafael said she has been practicing. If it is 3Lutz/2Loop, then the difference in 2loop and 2Toe under CoP is not as big difference as in 6.0. it was less than 0.5 difference? A +1 GOE for a well done 3Lutz/2Toe should cover the difference.

If one reads Chisk8fan's analysis, it is not putting down MK but stating just what MK can do and given she does it well, the results will be the scores listed. If one takes the time to do it with other skaters, e.g., Shizuka, Irina, Sasha, Joannie, etc. one could get the very real possible results. Then a suggestion as how to up that score to match others. Nice job, Chisk8fan.

Of course, not all skaters will do their best, unfortunately and that includes MK, IS, SC, SA, JR, etc. So we wait and see and we will see soon.

Joe

I love Michelle (my personal favourite) but I can't imagine anyone but Sluty winning this. The judges might give her a little edge because we'll be in Moscow, she'll have the fans behind her, and (IMO) the rough skate at Euros was needed to get it out of her system because she'd been almost too good this season. Wherever Michelle finishes, she'll fight for her spot. I predict she'll get the bronze.

MzHeng

O.k., I will take your word for it. All I hope she does, is whatever she has to do to offset Irina's mega spins and triple-triples. I know she can do the triple-triples. I just hope she puts them in the program. I think she is going to need them.

kyla2 said:

All I hope she does, is whatever she has to do to offset Irina's mega spins and triple-triples. I know she can do the triple-triples. I just hope she puts them in the program. I think she is going to need them.

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The same hope here. I agree, she is going to need them.

We all know how the fans of Michelle feel about the Worlds and their hopes, but the bottom line in this CoP system is POINTS!. It is not a matter of the old "whole package" which MK did so well.

It is the "Points" which will sum up the "whole package". Michelle will skate as beautiful as ever, but will the elements add up to a good score?

Will this scoring system work for MK? We'll see.

Joe

Joesitz said:

We all know how the fans of Michelle feel about the Worlds and their hopes, but the bottom line in this CoP system is POINTS!. It is not a matter of the old "whole package" which MK did so well.

It is the "Points" which will sum up the "whole package". Michelle will skate as beautiful as ever, but will the elements add up to a good score?

Will this scoring system work for MK? We'll see.

Joe

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she will skate well but she has not skated under this system. we'll see how it goes.

Joesitz said:

We all know how the fans of Michelle feel about the Worlds and their hopes, but the bottom line in this CoP system is POINTS!. It is not a matter of the old "whole package" which MK did so well.

It is the "Points" which will sum up the "whole package". Michelle will skate as beautiful as ever, but will the elements add up to a good score?

Will this scoring system work for MK? We'll see.

Joe

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I think it's not a matter of whether COP works for Michelle, rather if Michelle will adjust her skating to this COP system and I strongly feel it's a big yes, based on how competitive a sportsperson she has always been. Michelle certainly is aware it's no longer the old complete package that rules but as you said, the new complete package which right now belongs to Irina. That's why she commented that the COP might take away a certain degree of honesty in her skating.

I don't think she would just go out there to give a beautiful performance, she would deliver a performance that would milk the COP points. I strongly feel she has been studying hard with her coach how to outscore Irina and Shizuka. Her LP at the Nationals was watered down to suit the 6.0 system, and I don't for a second believe that she would not hold her fan spiral and that third spiral for at least 3s to achieve level 3 (she held those 2 spirals for probably 1.5s at Nationals which didn't matter much in the 6.0 system).

apache88 said:

Her LP at the Nationals was watered down to suit the 6.0 system, and I don't for a second believe that she would not hold her fan spiral and that third spiral for at least 3s to achieve level 3 (she held those 2 spirals for probably 1.5s at Nationals which didn't matter much in the 6.0 system).

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I was asking myself something about that! I would like to hear some opinions on why do you think Michelle didn't hold the spirals longer. What difference would that make in the 6.0? Why not hold it for the 3 seconds at Nationals? is it that she cannot do it or that she didn't want to do it at that moment? What do you all think on that?