Michelle will not win Worlds

VIETgrlTerifa · Mar 9, 2005

brad640 said:
I'm not sure that skating in Moscow will be a huge advantage for Irina. It will help her that she does not have to travel and deal with jet lag, but I don't know how much of a boost she will get from the crowd. I remember at Cup of Russia Terry Gannon commented that the crowd went crazy for Plushenko, but Irina only got polite applause. Irina has never been one to reach out and connect with the audience, so she is not really a crowd favorite even in her home country.

Was Cup of Russia that year in St. Petersburg? If so, Irina being a Muskovite might have something to do with that.

brad640 · Mar 10, 2005

VIETgrlTerifa said:
Was Cup of Russia that year in St. Petersburg? If so, Irina being a Muskovite might have something to do with that.

No, unfortunately for Irina, Cup of Russia was in Moscow. I had to check the ISU calendar to be sure, because, as you say, it would seem natural for Plushenko to get more applause in St. Petersburg.

I think Irina is admired and respected but not fanatically adored. For her I think the home court advantage will be that she is comfortable skating like she was at Cup of Russia, but it will not be a free-for-all worship fest like Michelle's LP at the 2003 worlds in DC where the crowd reaction helped put her over the top even with slight errors on her jumps. I think Irina will be solid like she has been most of the season, but if someone else has a great performance, the judges will not put Irina first out of fear of a riot. In other words, I don't expect pictures of Irina's final pose from worlds this year to end up on motivational billboards throughout Russia

Crizzy · Mar 10, 2005

Worlds will most likely have higher attendance rate than COR. If the Russian Federation has anything to do with it (which most likely they will) they'll start the hype on Irina to get the crowd going. If Irina doesn't get a crazy applause then she must not be as beloved in Russia like how some people say she is :frown2:

There is always some sort of homecourt advantage, not always, but sometime. It will be up to Irina to use that advantage.

I think Irina will be solid like she has been most of the season, but if someone else has a great performance, the judges will not put Irina first out of fear of a riot.

What do you mean by this? Why would there be a riot from the Russian crowd if Irina is put first?

Mathman · Mar 10, 2005

It think Brad means that the Russian crowd won't riot just because their hometown girl didn't win, if that's how it turns out. Unlike the crowd in Washington, DC, in 2003, which would have torn the place down if Michelle had lost, LOL.

MM

Crizzy · Mar 10, 2005

LOL mathman, and Washington DC is the murder capital of the nation :laugh:

chuckm · Mar 11, 2005

There will be plenty of people in attendance at Worlds who are not Russian, just as there were plenty of people at Worlds 2004 who were not German. However, I think it's pretty safe to say that most of the audience will be European, and Europeans in general are very supportive of the Russian ladies, as they are the only Europeans to have won World medals from 1998 on. Vanessa Gusmeroli of France (bronze, 1997) was the last non-Russian European woman to make it to the World podium.

brad640 · Mar 11, 2005

chuckm said:
There will be plenty of people in attendance at Worlds who are not Russian, just as there were plenty of people at Worlds 2004 who were not German.

Absolutely there will be a more diverse crowd than at Cup of Russia. In particular, there will be more supporters for Kostner, Sebestyen and Poykio, and I suspect the Russian audience will be equally supportive of Irina and Sokolova, and Sokolova has more of the mindset to draw on the crowd support than Irina.

Mathman said:
It think Brad means that the Russian crowd won't riot just because their hometown girl didn't win, if that's how it turns out. Unlike the crowd in Washington, DC, in 2003, which would have torn the place down if Michelle had lost, LOL.

Yes, that is what I was trying to say. Thank you MM and Crizzy for trying to make sense of my post!

kyla2 · Mar 11, 2005

Michelle

Well, for all you naysayers Michelle has been seen doing 3 new combinations in her program including a triple-triple, which bodes well for Moscow. Bolero is a good and compelling program, and will be even more so with these combinations. I think she will be in gold medal contention in Moscow. Shizuka sometimes under rotates her combinations which will cost her under CoP. Michelle doesn't under rotate her jumps.

Kuchana · Mar 11, 2005

I find it amusing how some people are counting out Michelle when history has shown in her case it's a mistake to do so.

So it will be her first time being judged under the COP system but I really do not think that she will sink under it as so many predict. I agree with the poster that said since Michelle has consistently done well in the 6.0 system that she should do the same in this one. Given Michelle's consistency and history, I think she will do well in this system and I'm going to say that I think she'll do well. Whether or not she gets gold or not, I'm not going to predict on that but I will say that I think she'll be a strong contender for the gold.

Crizzy · Mar 11, 2005

My wish is that Michelle also kicks butt whether she wins or lose as long as she makes the podium. Why? Because if history is correct, the top 3 Worlds finisher before the Olympics are usually the ones on that pedestal in Turin. Michelle's skating skills will be up there with Irina and her jump consistency will earn her great points.

I've noticed that her SP and LP has longer opening sequence than in the past.
I hope that she has reduced her opening and move those wonderful moves in between her jumps and spins.

As much as I want Michelle to win, I just have this aching feeling that if Irina skate well, even without a 3/3 and not alot of difficult entrance to her jumps, with reststops and not much of a choreography, she somehow got this in the bag. Call me a pessimist, I guess. I just HATE this aching feeling. Not nervous feeling just negative gut feeling.

Kwanford Wife · Mar 12, 2005

Color Me Confused

I just find it so amusing how so many are quick to count MK out because of the new judging system... Its figure skating! The top four fight for placement. But the one to beat is ALWAYS MK... why is that? Because she's the gold standard. Under 6.0 or CoP. That's just the reality & I don't understand how that gets lost based on a new judging system...

Where are the dramatic jumps in placement? Irina is currently #1 based on her GP scores... Is it really fair to say that's because of the over-used bielman or could it be that she's one of the two best skaters in the World and the other one hasn't competed this year? Joanine is just the sport's natural progression. Miki (last year's attempt to dethrone the grand dames of the sport) has been given the cold shoulder on the GP circut, based on her placements. Fumie & Sasha are always a threat but have consistency issues. DivaKwara is a big question mark...

Where is promised HUGE impact the new judging system was going to make? Where's the shake-up? The emperor has no clothes.

If Michelle Kwan doesn't win Worlds, she will place 2nd. Same for Irina. Unless Diva shows up. Everything else is wishful thinking ~ imo

KW

vixen62025 · Mar 12, 2005

Another thought just occured to me while reading this rather long thread... If the Russians sweep the other three disciplines, that may put even more pressure on Irina. And as we all know, Irina does not always skate her best when the pressure is at its peak. I think dismissing Kwan or Arakawa based on results from earlier this year is a mistake.

However, I guess there could be "interesting" judging like Europeans, and it may not matter how well anyone skated!!!

swannanoa54 · Mar 13, 2005

Joesitz said:
Sorry about this but I gave reasons for Irina winning and now I am pouring out my heart why MK will not win the worlds.

1. She has little fan base in Europe and probably none in Moscow. Trip is expensive so not too many Americans will be in the audience and about half the American audience has another American favorite, but Michelle will get polite applause from the whole audience.

2. She is perceived as being around too long by fans and judges (although no longer than Irina).

3. She will probably do all her tricks adequately if not more than adequately (no trick will win the audience or judges except, maybe, the change of edge spiral but that will be considered "old hat")

4. She will be nitpicked on each element as not being the 'best' (despite the fact that no skater is the 'best' in all elements.)

5. Her music this year will be considered monotonous with little change for diversity in stroking(although she shows the character of the music).

6. The lack of 3x3s will haunt her.

Still she is the most musical skater with strong stroking and solid elements (but that will be considered as "old hat", too).

The big question: Will the judges put her on the podium?

Joe

Sorry, that's all I had to add.

VINLUVSKWAN · Mar 13, 2005

MK does have a 3/3 jump combo

Hey Joesitz, do your "research" more adequately. Log onto to Michelle kwan forum (google search) and you'll read credible practice reports from coaches who work at Ice Palace in LA where Michelle Kwan trains. Michelle is consistently landing a 3 toe/3 loop as one of 3 combos (3 lutz/2 toe, 3 sal/2toe) she might unveil at worlds

Mathman · Mar 13, 2005

Hi, VIN. Welcome to Golden Skate.

We'll see in a few days. Everyone is hoping Michelle will throw everything but the kitchen sink into her programs at worlds. But IMO she must also be feeling some pressure from the other side: Skate a clean 6-triple program and score big in the component scores.

Anything can happen, but the other major contenders face the same decision. It doesn't help to do a triple-triple, then fall on your next jump. I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Mathman

brad640 · Mar 13, 2005

VINLUVSKWAN said:
Hey Joesitz, do your "research" more adequately. Log onto to Michelle kwan forum (google search) and you'll read credible practice reports from coaches who work at Ice Palace in LA where Michelle Kwan trains. Michelle is consistently landing a 3 toe/3 loop as one of 3 combos (3 lutz/2 toe, 3 sal/2toe) she might unveil at worlds

I am apprehensive about Michelle's 3t3l. I will be very surprised if she lands that in competition, and I think it will end up being a 3t2l like she did at Campbell's and she will have no 3l in the program. I am also a little worried about the 3s2t because, although her 3s has the least height of any of her triples, she usually has a superb landing edge coming out of it that could get +2 GOE, but if she tries to land it with enough speed for the combo, it could be -1, or worse 2 footed like her 3t2t in SLC.

Michelle will not win Worlds

VIETgrlTerifa

brad640

Crizzy

Mathman

Crizzy

chuckm

brad640

kyla2

Kuchana

Crizzy

Kwanford Wife

vixen62025

swannanoa54

VINLUVSKWAN

Mathman

brad640

Similar threads

Connect with us