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Thread: Ladies and 3/3 Predictions.

  1. #1
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Ladies and 3/3 Predictions.

    Who do you think will risk it in the QR, the SP, and the LP??

    Here are my predictions:

    QR: Rochette, Ando, Kostner, MAYBE Slute, but probably not as I don't think she'll need it. I suspect the other top ladies who have strong non-jump elements and PCS history won't risk it.

    SP: Rochette, Ando, Kostner. I don't see any of the other top ladies taking the risk especially since other elements are strong for them. (non-jump and PCS).

    LP: Rochette, Ando (possibly a 3/3/2), Slute (possibly a 3/3/2), Kostner, Shiz, Kwan, Cohen?, Fumie? Sebestyen? Things could change based on how close the scores are going into the LP.

    Other predictions?

    DG

  2. #2
    Sexy, smart and sterilized! childfreegirl's Avatar
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    I'm pretty much thinking the same thing. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Kwan and Choen do any 3/3's. Sebestyen I can see doing one. I have no idea about Fumie.

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    I agree with Rochette for the QR and LP, but not the SP. She'll do a triple lutz/double toe for her combo, not a triple/triple, unless she makes some changes from every other competition this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by screech
    I agree with Rochette for the QR and LP, but not the SP. She'll do a triple lutz/double toe for her combo, not a triple/triple, unless she makes some changes from every other competition this year.
    I pretty much agree with this except to say that she'll go for a 3/3/2 in the Q round.

  5. #5
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Great topic, Doggygirl. I think the key is, it doesn't help to do a triple-triple if that takes up so much of your energy and concentrtion that you make mistakes in the rest of the program. Amber Corwin hit a triple-triple at Four Continents, but then immediately doubled the next jump, plus another one later, so that was a wash. The men face the same question with respect to a quad. Jeff Buttle can do a quad, but in the past when he completed a quad that took away from the program rather than helped it.

    In the past, when Michelle has landed a triple toe/triple toe, almost always it was part of a complete seven triple program. That would certainly win in Moscow, but a triple-triple in a six triple program is no better under the CoP than a six triple program without a triple-triple.

    I think Arakawa, Ando and Rochette will be the only top ladies who take a chance on it. Although, like Childfreegirl, I am willing to be pleasantly surprised.

    Mathman

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    I can see Ando, Rochette and Kostner doing it. They really have nothing to lose, although they will lose points if they do not succeed and they want to stay in the last group to skate. Susann wants to get in that group. I think the other three will probably not do it, and still get lots of points.

    Joe

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    Figure Skating Fan Hikaru's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dfj
    I pretty much agree with this except to say that she'll go for a 3/3/2 in the Q round.
    Joannie at the GP did 3toe-3toe and 3flip-into-3salchow, and the 3lutz-2toe. Did she do a different combination at the Canadian Nationals? BTW, is there somewhere in the internet to see Joannie's score card at the canadian nationals? and what type of 3-3-2 would she do?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Great topic, Doggygirl. I think the key is, it doesn't help to do a triple-triple if that takes up so much of your energy and concentrtion that you make mistakes in the rest of the program. Amber Corwin hit a triple-triple at Four Continents, but then immediately doubled the next jump, plus another one later, so that was a wash. The men face the same question with respect to a quad. Jeff Buttle can do a quad, but in the past when he completed a quad that took away from the program rather than helped it.

    In the past, when Michelle has landed a triple toe/triple toe, almost always it was part of a complete seven triple program. That would certainly win in Moscow, but a triple-triple in a six triple program is no better under the CoP than a six triple program without a triple-triple.

    I think Arakawa, Ando and Rochette will be the only top ladies who take a chance on it. Although, like Childfreegirl, I am willing to be pleasantly surprised.

    Mathman
    Exactly.

    Funny that almost everyone seems to be saying of how Michelle needs a 3/3 to compete with those COPeed skaters, but I really doubt if they have really analysed the situation. I'm not impying they are stupid but merely suggesting that they perhaps are just making a throwaway comment without thinking much about it.

    I think it is highly unlikely anyone could manage 7 triples (especially at Worlds), based on the probability of skaters hitting that magic number in the past 5 years. This means 6 triples is the benchmark, which means no 3/3 is needed since a 6 triple program without a 3/3 scores exactly the same as that with a 3/3 or for that matter 2 3/3s (assuming the jumps are the same).

    What Michelle truly needs in order to compete with the likes of Irina, Shizuka...etc, is to incorporate difficult entry to her triples, upgrade her spins to at least level 2 and more in-betweens, NOT a 3/3. Not when the COP doesn't accord bonus points for 3/3s or 3-3 sequences. Would Irina and the likes attempt the 3/3 to obtain the 7 jumping passes (thus maximising their jump points) and risk having their triples from the 3/3 downgraded for falls or under-rotation? I highly doubt so, IMHO everyone would be playing it safe as far as triples are concerned at Worlds especially when the jumps are particularly scrutinised under the COP. I mean there are so many other ways to garner points besides the triples where the risks happen to be the highest. Well, unless that skater's objective is to push the technical envelope and wining a medal is secondary.
    Last edited by apache88; 02-23-2005 at 08:11 AM.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hikaru
    Joannie at the GP did 3toe-3toe and 3flip-into-3salchow, and the 3lutz-2toe. Did she do a different combination at the Canadian Nationals? BTW, is there somewhere in the internet to see Joannie's score card at the canadian nationals? and what type of 3-3-2 would she do?
    Last year at Dortmund, Joannie went bananas and kept doing triple combos and triple jumps. She got in a zone and wouldn't quit. It got her a top 10 position.

    Joe

  10. #10
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    I find considering the possible strategies very interesting...

    The basis for my predictions was based on actual results this year except for MK and SC who have not competed under COP this year.

    Of the top 14 or so ladies, Ando scored the lowest of them all in non-jump elements in the SP, and the second to lowest in non-jump elements in the LP. Kostner is a few places up from Ando, and Rochette a few places above that (around the middle of the pack). I think these are examples of ladies who rely more on maximizing jump points than people like Shiz, Slute, etc.

    Apache, I think you're right that Michelle might be better served with a level 2/3 strategy for non-jump elements than focusing on 3/3 jumps.

    Then I think there is another wild card here. While I think we all want to get a better comfort level that PCS is being scored based on the performance and the criteria in the rules, I suspect as many do that PCS scores can be "adjusted" to place skaters. I think that is very unfortunate, and I wish I could convince myself that it would never happen. So it will be interesting to speculate on what is really being rewarded in PCS once the comp gets underway. I HOPE for no scandals!

    DG

  11. #11
    On the Ice
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    Joannie did 3T-3T-2R during practices at Canadians.

    My real concern is whose 3-3 won't be downgraded to 3-2. IMO, those we can be sure of are Joannie, Caroline and Susanna. I think Ando, Arakawa and Slutskaya are question marks for the secound triple...

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    apache88, I think your analysys is spot on.

    I think under CoP doing 3/3 in SP has more advantage in LP. Based on your stats in LP a skater landed 3/3 mostly would messed up other jumps late due to the mentality, endurance, energy level etc. which took out the 7 triples possibility. In LP there are more non jump elements than in SP, the spins also took out a lot of energy, so work on these elements gain more points with an overall evenly distributed energy in LP is better. And in SP only 3 jump passes are alowed, more likely doing a 3/3 weren't mess up other jumps, and still keeping the energy level going in whole SP since it is only 2.5 min.

  13. #13
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    But the penalty for attempting a 3-3 in the SP and failing is immense, because a combo is a required element.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I know I'm out of line here (but then when am I not?), but, I just don't think the SP serves any purpose.

    Joe

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    But the penalty for attempting a 3-3 in the SP and failing is immense, because a combo is a required element.
    I thought it was judged the same way as LP under CoP? The same deduction points (-1 overall, -3 for a fall) were taken off as in LP if the fall is the same. if you only falled at the 2nd jump, it would still be called as comb. If you falled after the first jump, the way current program setup, it will still counted as comb as long as there is no other comb is attempeted before this one.
    Last edited by mzheng; 02-23-2005 at 08:09 PM.

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