Ladies - Qualifying A - Comments

Maybe it's better for Michelle now. No more strategizing as to whether to go for 7 triples. In her current position, she has to really do 7 triples, of which 3 are in combos (3/3, 3/2/2,. 3/2) and maybe do two 2As (one in combo).

At first glance at her score, it was shocking. I thought s***, the COP didn't like her. But after knowing how awful her skate was, in fact probably her worst performance in a major competition, she was simply given the marks she deserved.

As for the 5-point lead by Irina, it's wrong to suggest that in the LP it's only a triple jump's points for Michelle because if you look at the orignal lead, it was 20 points. Thanks to the factoring, it's possible for Michelle to close in the gap with her sp. However, come the final round, if they all skate the same as they did in the QR, Michelle again will find herself 20 points behind Irina and one more triple jump (as misleadingly implied by the current 5-point lead) won't do anything to help. That's why I think Michelle really has to maximize her jumps in the final LP.

This Worlds Championship is a transition period for Kwan. She seems very content with her current plans, which include saving her body and avoid the GP events. In her words, she's lazy. Anyhoot, I hope her "lazy" approach works.

I now regret throwing away my scientific calculator. Doing C.O.P. by hand or in your head just doesn't cut it. I don't think I would enjoy watching figure skating if I have to count how many seconds Kwan or Slutskaya held her BO spiral and how many changes of edge and position in the combination spin. *sigh* I'm beginning to detest C.O.P....really.

Barring disaster, I believe Slutskaya is slated to be crowned World Champion this year. Even with a subpar skate at Euros, she still got pretty high PCS scores. So it will be hard for Kwan to make up any ground on Slutskaya, although Cohen certainly does have a chance.

If I was Kwan, I would go for broke for the LP and add a Bielman to every spin, spiral, and even footwork, finally ending with a Bielman forward scratch spin. Bielman is the way to go if you want a level 3 of anything in COP, so I don't see why not. And instead of doing her planned triple flip, double toe, double loop, I would advise her to do a triple flip, double toe, double loop, double loop, single toe, single toe, single loop. Now how many points would that rack up?

Did I mention that I detest COP yet?

Apache, I think Michelle has bigger worries right now than strategizing about how to work in 7 triples. She has to get her legs under her, put both the qualifying round and the CoP out of her head, and skate the program that she came prepared to skate.

She has had nothing to do for two months except prepare her programs. To me, that was the time for strategy. Now it's time to skate.

Mathman

apache88 said:

Maybe it's better for Michelle now. No more strategizing as to whether to go for 7 triples. In her current position, she has to really do 7 triples, of which 3 are in combos (3/3, 3/2/2,. 3/2) and maybe do two 2As (one in combo).
.

Click to expand...

And which of the top skaters have ever skated a program with such a content? None...And why is that? Probably because it must be really hard on the body to do all those triples and combos in a competition. First, third, or tenth, I'd rather Michelle stay healthy by knowing her limits than pushing herself to the point of serious injury. Just look at the long, growing list of injured skaters..and maybe you'll agree with me.

I have a different outlook on all this.
I have always felt that she would most likely not win here. The combination of the fact that Irina has built a highly COP-friendly program ... plus the fact that this would be her first comp under the NJS. I always thought however, that she would be right in the mix for a podium spot.
What happened yesterday is she just skated awful. No mystery. If you look at the fact that Shizuka ... who supposedly has very COP friendly programs ... was only 3 points ahead of her after the QR ... and she landed 5 or 6 triples (including a 3/3) This tells me that had Michelle skated well, she would have been right in the mix for a silver or bronze. I personally think unless Irina has a meltdown here, no one will beat her anyway.
I still think if MK skates 2 strong programs she will still be right up there.

I also think we should take our queue from her. She made a specific decision to lay off too much competing and keep her body strong and healthy going into the Olympic season. She seems to have no regrets about that decision ... so if she is okay with it, than I know I should be able to also.

Would somebody be a sweetie and list the top 10 finishers in each Q group and their points? I realize it's only 14% of the total, but it would make it easier for some of us numerically challenged to see a list and the point spread for the A and B Qualifying groups. Unless of course there're up and I've missed them D'Oh!

If not, I'd appreciate it and I'm sure some others will too.

Thanks,
Rgirl

Rgirl, here are the links to the ISU site for the two qualifying groups. The total points in the first column have already been multiplied by .25.

http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/SEG005.HTM

http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/SEG006.HTM

I agree that there is plenty of time for Michelle to get it together and make up some ground. Considering that she did only three triples, her spins were off and she looked like she was swimming in molasses -- still to be only 20 points behind the leader means that anything can happen.

MM

PS. Go Fumie!

Thanks, O Man of Math and Many Links.

Rgirl