2005 Worlds in Moscow
Overall, the only two events with complex interest in these championships with a terrific overall quality of skating were the Ice Dance and Ladies events. The other events were full of injuries to top skaters, circumstance and poor performances. But, there is a lot to speculate about in the overall picture of events leading to the Olympic Games next year.
Ladies Event:
1. Michelle Kwan: It can be speculated that Michelle has only stayed in the eligible ranks for this year and next year only to have to the opportunity to compete for Gold. This next time, she will definitely be the underdog, something different from the past 2 Olympic Games. She was surprised by winning in 2003, after much coersion to stay eligible. Last year, she did just enough to stay competitive and a stride behind the best jumpers and spinners. This year, the lack of competition exposure really did hurt her, as she didn't appear comfortable with all her planned choreography, transitions, new spin positions and attempts to speed them up. But, I believe that it seems like Michelle sees these years as like running a marathon. She may fall behind a stride or two by pacing herself, but she wants to peak for the months of January - February, 2006. Michelle typically doesn't skate competitions with falls or doubling many jumps. In this competition, she did all those things and had one bad program and was right up there in terms of her points. I believe that a Michelle with 7 triples, the combination and the choreography she demonstrated with Lori Nichol up til 2001 CAN win, absolutely. BUT, she has to get back to this point. My suggestion - pay Lori Nichol the $20,000.00 fee she charges to do a long program, and then train the heck out of it and compete it a lot next year regardless of results. Then, she can relax at Olympics because she won't win the SP, and she will be the underdog. I think she sees the big picture and can be determined and encouraged.
2. Sasha Cohen looks to have improved since Wagner. Her program wasn't totally front loaded, she did sequences and Level 2 spins, but she did provide us with one Spasha Splat, and the Splasha flutz is horrible. But she fought for all her landings and looked calmer and far less arrogant, and I enjoyed her for the first time in a long while. An Olympic medal is hers if she can just hang in there, and in the GP next start her rivaly up with Michelle. Both girls would benefit. I hope they work on the flutz, and keep her calm and confident, but not arrogant. She will place highly next year, for sure, and develop further as a skater and performer. After the season she has had, this was a great job.
3. Shizuka Arakawa is a prime example of a skater who was not equipped emotionally or intellectually to handle being a championship skater. She is a World Champion, but couldn't adapt to performances as such, training as such and competing as such. Her confidence was completely stripped away by not really being a skater adapted for the spotlight. She seems quiet, reserved and shy, and to be recognized as the best in the world seemed to overwhelm her. I am not surprised that she recognizes the depth of skating in Japan, and that the next year would require a mamouth committment with unsure potential results (she may not even make the Japanese Olympic team) away from home, etc. She just seems tired.
4. Irina Slutskaya has hung in there over the last three years. She seems to be a skater whose career is highlighted by ups and downs, with a succession of comebacks. She was great as a mid-teen, had her puberty phase, came back, has had her illness phase, and has come back again under the new scoring system. I don't believe she is better than she was in 2002 - 2003. Next year, she will have the pressure as World Champion to compete a lot - GP, Nationals, Europeans, GPF, Olympics and Worlds - a total of 7 competitions. She will have to plan extremely carefully and hope for good luck in the health department. She is the favorite for the OGM.
5. The Canadian women, particularly Phaneuf, had a strange Worlds. In the GP and the GPF, Phaneuf had a remarkable transformation in her PCS with marks at Worlds down up to 30% from some of her earlier marks. Rochette, told via marks, placements and the judges that she was reaching the elite level with chances of a medal, got PCS placing her in the top 10 - 12, and not near the top group. I understand that they may have jumped poorly, but others have kept their PCS with jump errors. It seemed strange that they only earned one spot for Rochette next year. Phanuef didn't earn a spot She was so low it was embarrassing---didn't she make the GPF? Her best bet for next year is to try and get to Worlds and do much better.
Next year, there will be a huge amount of pressure on Irina, Sasha and Carolina (home crowd and host country expectations and hopes) and less pressure on Michelle, Miki, Fumie and the others.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, because one thing is clear:
A skating era will be coming to an end next season, a new one to begin.
Overall, the only two events with complex interest in these championships with a terrific overall quality of skating were the Ice Dance and Ladies events. The other events were full of injuries to top skaters, circumstance and poor performances. But, there is a lot to speculate about in the overall picture of events leading to the Olympic Games next year.
Ladies Event:
1. Michelle Kwan: It can be speculated that Michelle has only stayed in the eligible ranks for this year and next year only to have to the opportunity to compete for Gold. This next time, she will definitely be the underdog, something different from the past 2 Olympic Games. She was surprised by winning in 2003, after much coersion to stay eligible. Last year, she did just enough to stay competitive and a stride behind the best jumpers and spinners. This year, the lack of competition exposure really did hurt her, as she didn't appear comfortable with all her planned choreography, transitions, new spin positions and attempts to speed them up. But, I believe that it seems like Michelle sees these years as like running a marathon. She may fall behind a stride or two by pacing herself, but she wants to peak for the months of January - February, 2006. Michelle typically doesn't skate competitions with falls or doubling many jumps. In this competition, she did all those things and had one bad program and was right up there in terms of her points. I believe that a Michelle with 7 triples, the combination and the choreography she demonstrated with Lori Nichol up til 2001 CAN win, absolutely. BUT, she has to get back to this point. My suggestion - pay Lori Nichol the $20,000.00 fee she charges to do a long program, and then train the heck out of it and compete it a lot next year regardless of results. Then, she can relax at Olympics because she won't win the SP, and she will be the underdog. I think she sees the big picture and can be determined and encouraged.
2. Sasha Cohen looks to have improved since Wagner. Her program wasn't totally front loaded, she did sequences and Level 2 spins, but she did provide us with one Spasha Splat, and the Splasha flutz is horrible. But she fought for all her landings and looked calmer and far less arrogant, and I enjoyed her for the first time in a long while. An Olympic medal is hers if she can just hang in there, and in the GP next start her rivaly up with Michelle. Both girls would benefit. I hope they work on the flutz, and keep her calm and confident, but not arrogant. She will place highly next year, for sure, and develop further as a skater and performer. After the season she has had, this was a great job.
3. Shizuka Arakawa is a prime example of a skater who was not equipped emotionally or intellectually to handle being a championship skater. She is a World Champion, but couldn't adapt to performances as such, training as such and competing as such. Her confidence was completely stripped away by not really being a skater adapted for the spotlight. She seems quiet, reserved and shy, and to be recognized as the best in the world seemed to overwhelm her. I am not surprised that she recognizes the depth of skating in Japan, and that the next year would require a mamouth committment with unsure potential results (she may not even make the Japanese Olympic team) away from home, etc. She just seems tired.
4. Irina Slutskaya has hung in there over the last three years. She seems to be a skater whose career is highlighted by ups and downs, with a succession of comebacks. She was great as a mid-teen, had her puberty phase, came back, has had her illness phase, and has come back again under the new scoring system. I don't believe she is better than she was in 2002 - 2003. Next year, she will have the pressure as World Champion to compete a lot - GP, Nationals, Europeans, GPF, Olympics and Worlds - a total of 7 competitions. She will have to plan extremely carefully and hope for good luck in the health department. She is the favorite for the OGM.
5. The Canadian women, particularly Phaneuf, had a strange Worlds. In the GP and the GPF, Phaneuf had a remarkable transformation in her PCS with marks at Worlds down up to 30% from some of her earlier marks. Rochette, told via marks, placements and the judges that she was reaching the elite level with chances of a medal, got PCS placing her in the top 10 - 12, and not near the top group. I understand that they may have jumped poorly, but others have kept their PCS with jump errors. It seemed strange that they only earned one spot for Rochette next year. Phanuef didn't earn a spot She was so low it was embarrassing---didn't she make the GPF? Her best bet for next year is to try and get to Worlds and do much better.
Next year, there will be a huge amount of pressure on Irina, Sasha and Carolina (home crowd and host country expectations and hopes) and less pressure on Michelle, Miki, Fumie and the others.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, because one thing is clear:
A skating era will be coming to an end next season, a new one to begin.
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