OGM - Who's within reach of it?

I think some people are counting Michelle out because of worlds. I think if she competes next year she will be ready and will have learned from her experience with COP at this years worlds. Michelle herself stated in an article that her eyes were opened pertaining to COP. You can never count anyone out. I think there are a number of ladies that have a shot at gold including Michelle, Irina, SA, Sasha. I think however skates with fire, freedom and determination has a chance to win. Hopefully it will be judge fairly and will be a good night of skating. With that said Go Michelle

flowjo35 said:

t. I think there are a number of ladies that have a shot at gold including Michelle, Irina, SA, Sasha. I think however skates with fire, freedom and determination has a chance to win. Hopefully it will be judge fairly and will be a good night of skating.

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I agree, but I hope Sasha has the skate of her life & if she does, I don't think anyone can beat her.

flowjo35 said:

I think some people are counting Michelle out because of worlds. I think if she competes next year she will be ready and will have learned from her experience with COP at this years worlds. Michelle herself stated in an article that her eyes were opened pertaining to COP. You can never count anyone out. I think there are a number of ladies that have a shot at gold including Michelle, Irina, SA, Sasha. I think however skates with fire, freedom and determination has a chance to win. Hopefully it will be judge fairly and will be a good night of skating.

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I agree with this statement. This pretty much sums up my thoughts. This one (hopefully) will be up for grabs, and go to whomever can rise to the occasion that night.

and that will be the traditional teenager, Carolina, unless Kimmie's triple axel gets them going ga ga. The judges love teenage girls.

The question remains: Can a Lady over 20 win an Olympic gold medal (not withstanding if she's not defending one.)? :scratch:

Joe

Joe

I hope it will be one of the ladies in their 20's getting the gold. I think they have alot going for them in terms of maturity and experience on the ice. I just hope they will not get nervous and let a golden opportunity get away. It would be great if the podium were made up skaters in their 20's having skated their best. I can not wait.

Which of the Japanes ladies do you think has the best chance? Shizuka had an off year in which she semmed to struggle to find motivation. Ando did not improve in presentation skills as much as we hoped. Still, they are both CoP savvy skaters who can rack up the points.

Fumie. to me, seems more a gestalt skater, like Michelle, who delivers her best performances when she really listens to her music and gets in the groove.

Mathman

Rgirl said:

At this year's Worlds, my heart was with Irina. Not just for the vicissitudes that have befallen her and her family, but because she's been right in there for so long. It seemed like her turn and she took full advantage of it.

But for the '06 OGM, my heart will be with Michelle. The killer pressure of '98 and the weirdness of firing Frank and Lori in fall '01. Michelle seems to have had her ducks in a row over the last three years and I'd love to see her learn from her first experience with the COP, dig down deep, and skate an OGM-winning performance for the ages. I really want her to have a full set of Olympic medals: silver, bronze, gold.

If Sasha can FINALLY pull it together, I'd like to see her win bronze, with Irina with the silver if her health holds up.

It's too late for me to think rationally about the other disciplines.

Rgirl

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I couldn't agree with you more.

Well ... here goes ...

PAIRS: Shen/Zhao (if they can come back strong from injury), Totmianina/Marinin, any of the other Chinese and Russian pairs depending on the quality of their programs ... Obertas/Slavnov might have a shot if they come up with something good (not the kind of horrible music and costumes they had this past season).

MEN: Even though I'm not a big fan of him I will say that Plushenko is still one of the top-contenders ... however, there are several other top-contenders breating down his neck ... Weir, Buttle, Joubert, Lambiel, Goebel ... and yes, also Sandhu who's known to surprise you when you least expect it ... last but not least there is Griazev who I think might surprise everyone ... he's got Tarasova who has coached both Kulik and Yagudin to Olympic Gold!!!

DANCE: Most likely Navka/Kostomarov unless Tanith Belbin gets her citizenship and she and Ben can compete in Torino ... don't count out Denkova/Staviski or Delobel/Schoenfelder.

LADIES: I'd say this one will be between Slutskaya and Cohen, with Kostner, Arakawa, Suguri, Rochette, Phaneuf and Sokolova being the unknown quantities who might just do it. I don't think Kwan is going to win ... she'll have a hard time to even get on the podium because, compared to any of these other ladies, her skating-style is boring and outdated.

In the end, though, we'll just have to wait and see ... looking back at past Olympic Games there were always a few surprises ...

Vanessa

Sasha has a great chance to get the gold. Since she switched back to Nicks, she has been making a lot of improvement. Most importantly she has the confidence and determinnation. Maybe people think she is not young teen anymore which reduces her chance to get judges appreciation. But Sasha looks very young and she keeps her body slender and flexible just like 2000 she just came to national scene. Even though she has switched coaches a few times in less than three years, that does not affect how judges look at her beautiful skating.
For Michelle, normally she is in her best shape in the year before Olympics. Unfortunately she is in her worst shape this year. I worriy that if she can get the jumps and spins mastered in a few months after the COI tour. Plus she is more nervious at Olympic than at other competitions.

Michelle has never looked better. (I just saw her up close in COI.) She is in great shape, and didn't hold back on the tech side, as the other ladies in the show did.

The Olympics? We'll see.

About Sasha' chances, she seems to have reached a plateau in her skating. She skated very nicely at worlds, landing seven triples more or less cleanly. She could win if others falter.

Slutskaya will be the odds-on favorite if her health holds up. Otherwise, I'll go with Joe and say that Carolina, skating in her home country, might grab the gold ring.

Voting with my heart, I hope Fumie makes the podium.

Mathman

Joe

Jositz, Im not sure what you are saying. Tradition means? Kostner will win and it will be Legit ORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR ?

jesslily said:

For Michelle, normally she is in her best shape in the year before Olympics. Unfortunately she is in her worst shape this year. I worriy that if she can get the jumps and spins mastered in a few months after the COI tour.

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Huh? Michelle is in the best shape of her life right now. From what I have heard her COI performances have shown complete mastery over her jumps. I just want her to get that loop back.

I think it is totally impossible to predict this upcoming Olympics winner. It could any of a number of Ladies. I do believe it will not be the one who people are expecting (whoever that will be come February). I am hoping for a podium finish for Michelle, Irina, and Shizuka (or Fumie). In any order will be fine with me.

Cianni - I'm half joshing here because so many posters who insisted that Michelle Kwan was too old even before the 2006 Olys, and the many posters who are tired of her and thought she should 'go pro', have now changed their tune.

No one is saying "go pro" for those skaters over 20 because their favorites are now that age and will be beyond 20 at the time of the Olys. They've also been in at least one Oly already. Let's face it, the top ladies in figure skating (except for one) are in their 20s No more little dahlings.

What we will have in the 2006 Olys are top skaters who will demonstrate what maturity is, and there is plenty of diversity there too. I happen to like that. No jumpin jacks in pseudo ballet poses.

The other half I am not joshing. It seems to me statistically, that the Ladies Olympic Champions have always been teenagers unless they were defending a title that they already won as a teenager. I hope someone checks me out on this and reports back.

Traditional is not the best word but it was fun to use. If Irina, Sasha, Shizuka or Michelle (not to mention Julia, Fumie, Elena, Vikka,) all of whom should have 'gone pro' are not up to the wrath of the judges, we are left with the teenagers for the judges to choose from.

At this point in time Carolina seems to have the edge over Joannie and Sussana not to mention Miki, Mao(?) or Kimmie.

At least half of the contest may well be the most mature group of Ladies ever. But a little teenager just may steal your heart and be the next Ladies Olympic Champion. It will not be unusual.

Joe

Lucy, that is so true about Michelle. I'm sorry you didn't get to see her in COI yesterday. All I can say is, anyone who thinks Michelle is out of shape has not seen her in person, maybe just on TV. When you see Michelle in person it's like, WOW! Irina, too.

Many of the ladies, when you see them in person, they are too thin. Qing Pang has been much commented on, but Jenny Kirk is another one that raises concern. Sasha, though, I think is just naturally thin. When you see her in person you don't start thinking malnutrition.

Mathman

Going out on a limb here with my top three.........Michelle, Plushy, and Shen and Zhao all the way.............. :agree: 42

Joe

Hi Joezitz, I dont think the OLY one will be a teenager this time because the sport is in such decline and a teenager will not peek interest. The ISU is aware that the teeny boppers will run with medal and so goes any chance of renewed interest. I for one want a Lady to win the Ladies OGM. I really want Michelle to win and hope she does however if the Gold goes to any skater who really doesnt deserve it we can kiss skating goodbye. The causal fan will not accept sloppy flawed programs over a clean skate no matter what the COP is. They see what is a great program and want that to be a winner . Im not impressed with COP and think it will do skating in without a lot of changes and I dont think Speedy will let up till he hits rock bottom as the saying goes. The judging is no different and the inflated marks determine the winner. I will watch next season and then I dont think we will see skating except OLYS. The boards are humming with no longer interested posts and no more going to the comps. Wish it wasnt so but OH it is. Thanks for replying

I don't see why this year's Worlds justifies writing off anyone -- Kwan, Arakawa, or Rochette. After all, Nancy Kerrigan bombed in the Worlds before Olys, and still medaled -- and a medal of any color would put Rochette in good standing for 2010, and/or make Kwan the first American ever (and only the second lady in history) to win 3 Oly medals in the singles event. Furthermore, Arakawa is coached by Tarasova -- who coached Kulik -- who also did badly at Worlds the year before he won his OGM. I think that we won't know how (or even if) "history repeats itself" until after the event.

I wouldn't write off Arakawa, because she wasn't planning to skate this year, and she competed reluctantly this season. She said after Molscow that she wanted to compete next year, and I expect her to be a lot more focused and committed.

couldn't resist commenting on this one...

I've been lurking for a while, in a depression, to be honest, but I couldn't pass this one up...
I was just thinking that, after a few more LP meltdowns, Sasha may just have nipped that problem in the bud for good...they are getting smaller and smaller (this year at Worlds wasn't exactly a meltdown...it seems as if they're going from meltdown to let down...to "get down"?:-D). And then I read Mathman's comment (Hi Mathman!) about Sasha hitting a plateau, and I agree with that as well, so I'm torn. It seems to me that every missed opportunity to make off with the gold in competition from the post SLC season to Turin may well turn out to be a dress rehearsal for the big one next February. If so, then it will have been well worth it for Sasha. Don't know if that makes much sense, but I haven't been making much sense lately, so don't mind me It's funny because I enjoy her skating sometimes and sometimes seeing how intense her fixation on being the best in competition is (her own comments support this theory) leaves me cold, as it seems to permeate her presentation; presentation, IMO, is the element in which the sheer joy of skating should come through--maybe I mean expression, artistry, whatever, you get the picture Anyhow, I don't think any of these skaters at this level are skating merely for the sheer joy of it, and yet striking the delicate balance between focused ambition and the illusion of effortless joy of movement seems to be the key to a great expressive--and technically successful--program. Sasha often seems, to me anyway, to be overdoing the ambition end of it, and yet this fight, this determination, served her well this year at Worlds.

As for the rest of the field, I really enjoyed Carolina's short program and I found her coltish style to be rather refreshing; I think her jumps are a seamless part of her fast, fluid skating, and I wouldn't mind seeing her make off with gold at home, if the skates she puts together are deserving of it on those nights. Shizuka will have to put herself in the frame of mind that did it for her in Dortmund; Irina's health will have to hold up; MK will have to bring it like she's never brought it before, and it seems like a challenge that she'd relish, the prospect of a dogfight for top honors (quite a departure from what she's been used to), as she clearly doesn't do well as the heavy favorite going into the Olympics.

Every one of them, by virtue of the years of hard work and dedication that it takes to be at the elite level, is deserving, IMO, but the skaters whose skating I enjoy the most are Carolina and Shizuka, and I'd throw Sasha and Michelle in there as well. I think Carolina's programs will be beautifully put together; I expect the music choices and the choreography to be original, refreshing, chosen to showcase her at her best, as was the case this year, IMO.

For all their dominance in the sport, the American ladies' music choices and choreography haven't been the most original of late; Michelle really needs to give Lori Nichol a call, as many posters have already remarked. As for Sasha, she'd do well to drop the warhorses and stretch a bit more emotionally, musically, and artistically, but I don't know if she has now (or will ever have) the emotional depth and maturity to dig that deep.

Having seen Michelle try out different things, as with Miraculous Mandarin, The Red Violin, SOTBS et al, lets me know that she's capable of it, but her lovefest with American audiences, which her disappointing SLC experience hiked up a notch (a great sympathy party, you're great, Oly gold or no), has, IMO, contributed to the complacency I see in her programs, at least as far as choreography is concerned. I may be completely wrong, but I am only expressing and airing out opinions here; feel free to rebut:-D

Best,
Sarah M

Hi, Sarah Mistral. Great post!