I have a feeling Stephane Lambiel could be the golden boy next year!

[slutskayafan21]

Well I count myself in the 10%. These are my views:

1)Lambiel has a very good chance to win Olympic Gold next year, especially with Plushenko's health a question mark.

2)Lysacek's medal chances are practically non-existant. Plushenko, Joubert, Buttle, Sandhu, Weir, Lambiel, perhaps Lindemann, all have better chance of grabbing one of the three medals than he does. We dont know if the Olympics will be brilliantly skated or a disaester. It could be a disaester that fans laugh about what a mess it was, and it still wont be the disaester that Worlds this year was, or that would give Evan a podium chance.

3)Lambiel would have to have multiple major errors to have any chance of losing to Lysacek even if Evan gets his quad. If Evan does not have a quad(and he probably wont)Lambiel will be safe to beat him by a clear margin even with multiple major errors. This is all assuming Evan skated his optimum BTW, and he himself rarely has clean long programs.

4)Weir was slightly undermarked and probably deserved the bronze at Worlds this year.

I just dont agree with the 90% I have run across.

[PrincessLeppard]

Can you give me a link to this poll?

Mathman, this certified non-genius posted as Davey25 at FSU and apparently has a reading comprehension problem. Feel free to go over there and check out the thread "Only one medal for Americans at Olympics" (or similar) and you can see what I mean.

Also, I believe most of Evan's programs have been clean this year....

[valuvsmk]

Mathman, this certified non-genius posted as Davey25 at FSU and apparently has a reading comprehension problem. Feel free to go over there and check out the thread "Only one medal for Americans at Olympics" (or similar) and you can see what I mean.

Also, I believe most of Evan's programs have been clean this year....

Obsessive-compulsive doesn't even BEGIN to describe this poster's posting habits. PrincessLeppard speaks the truth.

[Lee]

Obsessive-compulsive doesn't even BEGIN to describe this poster's posting habits. PrincessLeppard speaks the truth.

But he's logical...

[Kasey]

He jumps like Johnny, and he's definitely not into shoping

Joe

I love that "Johnny goes shopping" clip SOOOO much!

[Lisa]

Mathman, this certified non-genius posted as Davey25 at FSU and apparently has a reading comprehension problem. Feel free to go over there and check out the thread "Only one medal for Americans at Olympics" (or similar) and you can see what I mean.

If I may add, among those "90% American fans", there are a lot of Europeans

[Mathman]

Since everyone on this thread seems to be in the 10%, with only me and Lisa in the 90%, I feel obliged to speak up for poor Evan.

I love this boy! He's working that long-legged, loosey-goosey, Vaudeville song-and-dance thing like nobody's business. I have had the pleasure of seeing him skate twice. The first time was at the December Marshall's cheesefest (he got second, following Plushenko and ahead of Joubert and Weir), and then at Belbin and Agosto's tsunami relief show in February. What he lacks in quadliness he makes up for in enthusiasm and boyish charm.

Although Stephane is certainly his equal in those last two qualities, LOL.

Comparing girl friends, I'd say it's a toss-up. Who's prettier, Jenny Kirk or Carolina Kostner?

Anyway, since this seems to be the place for Olympic predictions, here's mine: Michael Weiss to beat out Tim Goebel and get the third spot on the U.S team.

IMHO the CoP is Michael's friend. Think of how many points he can rack up for all those double-footed quads! Under the old judging system, a two-footed quad was not counted as a quad at all. But in the new judging system, as long as you make it all the way around you still get big points, even with a negative GOE for a two-footed landing or a hand down.

He will even get points for his "Mike Pike" (shoot the duck) entrance into a triple flip.

Mathman

[chuckm]

The one reservation I have about Lambiel is his consistency. He has spent so many years on the injured list that we've never seen a healthy Lambiel get through one complete season (at 19, he's already had two knee surgeries). He has never competed in more than one GP event in any season. In 2004, he failed to medal at both Euros and Worlds. In 2005, he bombed in the FS at Euros and again finished off the podium, but won 2005 Worlds in the absence of Plushenko; he landed two quads, but had only 4 triples in his FS, with no 3A or 3Z.

Now that he is World Champion, he will be the chased rather than the chaser, and he will be competing once again in the absence of Plushenko. I would have to see Lambiel romp in the GP this coming season to conclude that he is truly an OGM candidate.

[hockeyfan228]

Now that he is World Champion, he will be the chased rather than the chaser, and he will be competing once again in the absence of Plushenko. I would have to see Lambiel romp in the GP this coming season to conclude that he is truly an OGM candidate.

If Plushenko starts the season strong, I don't think that Lambiel will be under the pressure of a favorite. I think he'll be chased more as a podium contender, like Lindemann was this year. I don't even think he'll be under the same pressure as Joubert, who outright beat a self-defeating Plushenko at Euros last year, who stubbornly re-tried the 3A and lost a chunk of choreography in the attempt. Partly, I think that's because he's not a polarizing skater like Joubert; his style is as "artsy" as Plushenko's, and he seems to be universally respected, unlike Joubert.

Had the ailing Plushenko who showed up in the qualifying round without a quad given a similar performance in the LP, Lambiel would not have been World Champion with the performance he gave in the LP in Moscow: his PCS of 76.86 were barely over EP's 75.70 from qualis (and his own 75.10 in qualis), and because of the popped and downgraded jumps, his TES of 67.32 was nearly nine points under EP's TES from qualis, and over 10 points below his quali performance.

[Joesitz]

The one reservation I have about Lambiel is his consistency. He has spent so many years on the injured list that we've never seen a healthy Lambiel get through one complete season (at 19, he's already had two knee surgeries). He has never competed in more than one GP event in any season. In 2004, he failed to medal at both Euros and Worlds. In 2005, he bombed in the FS at Euros and again finished off the podium, but won 2005 Worlds in the absence of Plushenko; he landed two quads, but had only 4 triples in his FS, with no 3A or 3Z.

Now that he is World Champion, he will be the chased rather than the chaser, and he will be competing once again in the absence of Plushenko. I would have to see Lambiel romp in the GP this coming season to conclude that he is truly an OGM candidate.

We're in the Summer Nit Picks and Lambiel is getting it. Good. This will keep us busy.

First paragrah: True. We haven't seen enough of him. Let's hope we will.

Second paragraph . He's had injuries in Dortmund and got several 3rd places despite losing to a hometown hit or miss skater who just happened to hit for the hometown. He beat out Michael Weiss and Johnny Weir! as well as Griazev, van de Perren, Sandhu, and how many others despite injuries.

I don't believe for one minute that others will be chasing him. Evgeni is still the most accomplished skater with only one injury that affected his skating. IMO, the Men's field will be chasing Evgeni including Stephane.

You are correct in keeping watch on the GPs. Let's see.

Joe

[chuckm]

I don't think we will see Plushenko in the GP this season. He didn't place in the top 12 at Worlds 2005, so he's not one of the "required" skaters, and he can use his recovery from surgery and his bum knee to keep him on the ailing list. I'm not even convinced he'll do CoR, because last year doing just one event still qualified him for the GPF and I think he wants to avoid a repeat.

I don't think we'll see Plushy until Euros 2006.

So yes, World Champion Lambiel will be the guy with the target on his back.

[Joesitz]

So yes, World Champion Lambiel will be the guy with the target on his back.

I'm still not convinced. I do not write off of Brian Joubert. He had a very poor season which I believe is standard in figure skating. Why put him out of it? I think he will bounce back. He has a much bigger fan base than Stephane.

As for Evgeni, a hernia operation is pretty much standard and I believe that has been taken care of. I'm sure he is waiting for a go ahead from the doctors to start skating again. I've never understood Evgeni's knee problem. It doesn't seem to have held him back. His quads are quite consistent and quads are the biggest influence in Men's Figure Skating for gold. Does anyone have a name for the knee condition that may or may not require surgery?

Hit or miss Lindemann could give Stephane a run for his money. He has that 'joy in skating' style which wins over the audience. I think he will want to win over Stephane more than Brian or Evgeni.

That will be the Big Four in Europe with van der Perren, Griazev looking on. I think Jamal Orthmund will make a statement at this year's Europeans.

Joe

[chuckm]

The bottom line is Plushy DOESN'T HAVE to compete in the GP. He did not finish in the top 12 at Worlds, and he is under no obligation to accept an invitation. I am sure the RF has sufficient documentation on his knee injury to present a case that he is still injured.

Plushy was having severe back problems in Moscow as well. He may well be having the same kind of problems Goebel was having in the 2003-2004 season, when his back got out of whack because of ill-fitting skates. Trying to skate with a bad knee may have caused Plushy to compensate by putting undue strain other parts of his body---that is what happened to Tim and the results are very sobering.

In any case, the best thing for Plushy at this point is not to compete until his injuries have healed sufficiently. Obviously, competing in the GP last season contributed to his need to withdraw from Worlds in Moscow, leaving the RF in dire straits for the Olympics. They barely qualified for two men's spots. You can be sure the RF are going to protect their best skater for Torino.

As for Joubert, he has never been an impressive early season competitor and has never been a big presence in the GP, even in his best years. In the 2003-2004 season, when he won gold at Euros and silver at Worlds, he won just one silver medal in the GP, and had two 4th place finishes. He didn't make the GPF on points, and had an opportunity to skate in the GPF when Goebel withdrew, but turned it down because the dates were too close to French Nationals. Joubert is in a tough situation right now, having had to change coaches back to his first coach (disliked intensely by his parents) and being manipulated by the French federation. I don't see him as being a target of anything but sympathy (and maybe a little schadenfreud).

Buttle will be trying out his quad in the GP and may be an inconsistent performer, and Sandhu is always exasperatingly inconsistent. These two will be pursuing Lambiel, and potential contenders Lysacek and Weir will see Lambiel as their main target also.

Lindemann has historically been the poorest of GP competitors. In the 2003-2004 season, when he won World bronze, he was 9th at Skate America and 11th at Lalique. Last season, he was 9th at Skate America, 6th at Skate Canada, and a distant 3rd at Cup of China, where he beat Min Zhang by an eyelash. He finished 11th overall in the GP, behind Ben Ferreira of Canada.

[soogar]

I think this season was an aberration for Brian Joubert. It seemed like he was distracted by all the publicity, the girlfriend and hampered by a bad program. Brian still has the quad jumps and it appears that he's healthy. Brian also has a great competitive attitude and I believe that he will be back and very strong for the Olympics.

I might be one of the few people who thought Lindemann deserved his bronze in Dortmund. He's a great little skater and I can see him being a spoiler for one of the medals.

I still stand by my picks though. I think that there will be a shakeup in the standings for both the men and the women.

[BittyBug]

Interesting observation about Plushenko not having to compete in the GP. At this point, it would seem that his body needs the rest, but he'd also benefit from testing his new programs in front of an audience, preferrably under competition circumstances. It will be interesting to see what he does.