Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium? | Golden Skate

Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
After 11 years of Medals, Michelle was denied one in Moscow. Some skating fans are delighted with this happening; others are in tears; still others like me, and apparently Dick are annoyed with her for her choices after the 2002 Olys. (Dick gave a few jabs at Marshalls; I want to give a punch.)

What can be done, if it is not too late.

1. Will she really get the CoP message now?

2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?

3. Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?

4. Will there be any transitions leading into elements particuarly jumps?

5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?

6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.

7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?

8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?

(One has to think that the judges are looking for big tricks. In my opinion, the PCS scores are an after thought.)

Joe
 

show 42

Arm Chair Skate Fan
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
My comments, my opinion:

1. Yep, I think she got it all along, just wasn't aggressive enough to make an impact.

2. Probably......if she can do them in practice, she can do them in competition. I remember reading once that Frank wouldn't let her put an element into a competition until she was (I think 90 percent) accurate. Maybe she is going for that percentage.

3. Michelle has always been the leader in this country anyway for "cutting edge" moves in the field. It has been most of the other skaters who follow her lead. Examples, the charlotte skid, split falling leaf, change of edge spiral, etc. Why would she leave those out now?

4. I think reports have stated that she is doing that now on the COI tour.

5 I think they are necessary, not for the accolades, but the exposure to the CoP scoring system and to boost her confidence level leading up to the Oly.

6. Nope, not that she doesn't have the goods, but I am guessing that all Michelle has to do is put a decent performance out there and she'll win. I think everyone wants to see her last Nationals a winning one, including the judges.

7. I believe she was very close, point wise to everyone except Irina, and that's because she botched the quarter rounds. She's got the goods already, she just has to put a "wow" program together and deliver the goods. She's done it before, I know not with this scoring system, but it's just math and numbers. (No putdown for math, MM)

8. Nope, she's got to conform to the new system, something I'm guessing she can and will do. Whether or not she'll win, who knows, but I think she can.

42
 

PrincessLeppard

~ Evgeni's Sex Bomb ~
Final Flight
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I just want to respond to #6. I was so NOT impressed with Kimmie at Marshall's and I would've had her last. She skates like a junior skater. The potential is there, but unless she lands two 3As and a quad at Nationals, she's not going to beat Michelle.
 

K-Mo

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 9, 2005
I think she will! She came REALLY close to medaling at worlds. She does have her work cut out for her, and she desperately needs a better program, but I think she knows this. I am the eternal optimist, but maybe this challenge is just what she needs to create some sparks. She has risen to the occasion before, and let's hope this new challenge lights that competitive fire.

I would like to see her do more international events. I don't know if she NEEDS to, but if she's smart, she will use the GP as a chance to skate under CoP, which is what I thinks he needs. I hate the fact that people say that she needs to to get in the good graces of the ISU. I don't think there will ever be such thing as impartial judging in figure skating.

I think Kimmie is talented, but not necessarily worth all the hype. That's not to say she won't come back next year with improved maturity and presentation, but I don't think she's in the same league--yet. I also wasn't impressed with Emily Hughes. I don't know what was missing, but I'm not sold yet.
 

nymkfan51

Medalist
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
1. Will she really get the CoP message now?
She gets it now. I think she was hoping it wouldn't come to be, but now that it's confirmed, she'll either stay competing and work with it, or she'll decide it's not what she wants.

2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?
There will be if she feels they're good enough. She won't if her completion rate in practice is too low, and I don't blame her. At her age, falling is not the non-factor it was when she was 18.

3. Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?
I'm sure there will be moves in the field, but will she come up with new trademark ones? Maybe not, but why should she need to at this point?

4. Will there be any transitions leading into elements particuarly jumps?
Yes ... but let's not condemn her for lacking them when we don't seem to hold other skaters to the same standards. The ONLY top ladies skater with lots of stuff in her program was Shizuka ... and they crucified her at Worlds. I watched everyone else telegraph their jumps, some a lot more than Michelle did.

5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?
I do believe they are necessary, but I'm not sure she'll do them. I have expressed my feelings on this topic before. We can all critisize MK for what we consider her "coasting" or lack of a 100% effort these past few years, but we need to take into consideration her physical condition. I believe she decided back in 2003 that the only way she would make it till 2006 was if she eased up on the competing. I absolutely agree with that BTW. Her body has taken a pounding for a good many years now, and I would think she has a much better handle on what she's capable of than we do. So I really don't understand why we can't respect that. After all, if she falls short of the podium in Torino, she will have to face the consequences ... not us.

6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.
No ... she got too much hype for that flawed 3A in Portland, if you ask me. And from what I have seen since, she's not near ready yet. She probably will be, but I don't believe in the next nine months.

7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?
Not a lot at all. Look ... with really only 2 months of training specifically for COP ... and a hideous QR ... she only missed the podium by a hair. She will be prepared next season. Take that to the bank.

8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?
Probably not ... that would most likely mean several others would have to make mistakes, and you can't count on anything for sure.


(One has to think that the judges are looking for big tricks. In my opinion, the PCS scores are an after thought.)

Joe ... IMO the big tricks are what will be the undoing of many. The big jumps are the first to go south in the pressure of an olympic games. There are so many question marks amongst the ladies. Irina has health issues, and they can never be taken lightly. Sasha has not proven to me that she can deliver when she has to. Carolina will have HUGE pressure on her skating at home, and we see how badly she handled that pressure at Euros. Will Michelle be able to adjust her skating to COP? Will Shizuka rebound from a poor season? Will Miki start to impress the judges?

I would say that almost anything is possible.
 

Vash01

Medalist
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
Joesitz said:
After 11 years of Medals, Michelle was denied one in Moscow. Some skating fans are delighted with this happening; others are in tears; still others like me, and apparently Dick are annoyed with her for her choices after the 2002 Olys. (Dick gave a few jabs at Marshalls; I want to give a punch.)

What can be done, if it is not too late.

1. Will she really get the CoP message now?

2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?

3. Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?

4. Will there be any transitions leading into elements particuarly jumps?

5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?

6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.

7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?

8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?

(One has to think that the judges are looking for big tricks. In my opinion, the PCS scores are an after thought.)



Excellent questions and some excellent comments by Show42. I am going to just make some general comments, instead of going point by point.

First of all, she can definitely get back on the podium. She missed it by about 0.5 and that is with a FALL on a triple in the LP, and a poorly skated QR. Of course she can skate better, but so can Shizuka, et al. who missed the podium in 2005. What it did show was that the judges still respect her. They absolutely creamed Shizuka when she made mistakes.

The reason Michelle gets so much criticism about not doing much to further her skating is that she has been around for 11 years during which she went through some major improvements in her skating. Compared to that, the improvements in the last few years have been tiny, which is understandable. I don't think the sport has passed her by, but other skaters have added more jump difficulty, spin positions, etc. The COP made it almost mandatory to have good footwork and transitions throughout the program, and not just one small portion of the program. Michelle was very good in this area when she worked with Lori Nichols. She has regressed in the last few years, just concentrating on skating clean, with a simpler choreography, and a lot of emotion. It is not enough anymore, under the COP. She needs to get back to that kind of choreography. I see that she has improved the power in her jumps and added some variations to the spins. She needs to do more of this, particularly the spins. She was the pioneer in the change of edge spiral. She needs to retain the strength of it, but avoid the Sasha like variation she is doing in her spiral sequence. If she has to keep something at level 1, my recommendation would be the spiral, unless she can come up with more innovation in it.


Michelle's biggest weakness in the 2005 season was her lack of familiarity with the new system. It is a choice she made consciously, I believe because she is still shooting for that OGM that has eluded her for so long. Anyone else would have retired by now. I do believe she has intentionally 'stagnated' in an effort to make one long push in the Olympic year. I believe she will familiarize herself with the new system, change her programs accordingly, and enter 2 GP's this season. She needs the feedback more than she ever did.

Irina is the best example of how to use the COP to her benefit. Michelle needs to find her own way to do so. I think she will need to be competitive with Sasha- now a two time world silver medallist, who is on the rise, and Carolina Kostner who has the big tricks, great speed, and who will have the support of the home crowd in Torino. To me, Kostner still appears juniorish but the judges are willing to give her high marks even when she makes mistakes. IMO she will be a major roadblock in Michelle's way, as she was in Moscow. In my mind Irina is still a question mark in Torino. Was this season a fluke? Will her health be still good? Will the COP rules be different and now allow her the advantages she had in 2005? Irina could win it all, or not even make the podium. Still, she is definitely one to contend with. Michelle will need high base marks to contend with any of the top skaters because she simply cannot depend on some of them making mistakes, even if we were to assume she will have two perfect skates in Torino.

Is Michelle capable of actually winning the OGM? (I know this was not the original question, but I took the liberty to bring it back). On paper, yes. In reality she will need a 3-3 combination, because the judges go for the big tricks as we saw in 1998 and 2002. IMO the only skater than can win without a 3-3 is Sasha, because her spins are spectacular, although her overall skating quality is not as good as Michelle's. Those are HER big tricks. I think the judges still respect Michelle, but she should not have to depend on others' mistakes to win a medal (and she cannot win the OGM simply depending on those).

Can she be beaten by Kimmie Meissner at nationals? Yes, if she makes 2 mistakes and Kimmie lands a CLEAN triple axel and skates a clean program. I believe the USN judges will still have a 6.0 mind set and they will go for the jumps. Right now I see Kimmie as a junior skater with a lot of potential. That is not enough to beat Michelle if both skate clean, and Michelle does not have a 3-3 combo.

Michelle's biggest strengths are- skating quality, and the will to win. So I do see her back on the podium next year. However, I am among those fans who will not be satisfied with just a podium finish in Torino. I want to see her win the OGM. I do believe it will be her swan song, win or lose.

Vash
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I think the judges still respect Michelle, but she should not have to depend on others' mistakes to win a medal (and she cannot win the OGM simply depending on those)

Well, it's one thing to say that, and another to watch what happens. I mean, Sarah not only had to have the performance of her life, but depend on ALL of the top contenders making mistakes to win. And it actually happened. So it's totally possible for MK to win the OGM if she is clean and everyone else falters. However, she shouldn't count on that happening at all.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
1. Will she really get the CoP message now?

Boy, she'd better. The Olympics will be using this new system and if she's not prepared for it, she's not going to win. I was somewhat surprised to hear the commentator criticizing MK during the Marshall's broadcast, but man was he right on. Kwan either needs to commit or quit at this point, IMO.

I'm also a little "Huh?" at her comments in the pre-skate interview. She put herself in the very position she's in right now through her decisions. Whether they work for better or worse will be known next year. However, I don't think Kwan's known for making the clearest decisions (firing your coach and going alone in an olympic year??) so...

2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?

It's beyond me why she didn't try them in competition at Marshall's if she was landing them in practice. Huh? This is a pro-am, where results don't really matter! This is the ideal time to try out all the new elements. At least Kimmie went for the 3A, and even though she didn't quite pull it off, absolute props to her for going for it.

I'll skip 3 and 4.

5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?

I REALLY think MK should do two GP events to get further accustomed to competing under Cop. Reading a book is one thing; acting it out is another. However, if the pro-ams are going to be judged under the Cop, knowing MK she'll skip them again and do the status quo. Obviously, like Button said, however the status quo isn't working anymore.

6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.

Unless the world flips over I don't see this happening. Even if Kimmie DESERVES to be placed above Kwan it won't happen, at least not in the U.S. Also I don't know if Kimmie has the skills to beat Kwan at this point. She'll have to depend on mistakes from her while skating lights out. I mean, she even has a tough time beating COHEN with mistakes. If she can't even beat Sasha how could she POSSIBLY beat Kwan?

7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?

Actually, not much at all. If she only stayed on her feet in Moscow I really think she would have been 3rd. However, a competitor at her level can't possibly be satisfied with 3rd, even with the 12,397 gold medals she has. It's going to take a lot of ground for her to be a candidate to win. Right now IMO she's in the position of Hughes. She can skate lights out, but she'll have to rely on others' mistakes to win.

8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?

I sort of covered that one above. Others will HAVE to make mistakes for her to win, and it's very possible that it could happen.
 

nymkfan51

Medalist
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Red Dog ... regarding her pre-skate interview. I don't think she was complaining or making excuses. She was really just telling it like it was. Yes, it was her decision, and it may or may not work out ... but it was the reason she faltered at Worlds.

And about her 3/3's for the cheesefest ... we have no idea just HOW successful she has been with them in practice. Dick may have seen her land one or two, but she may have not been comfortable with them at that point. And I think after Worlds it was very important to her to skate a clean Bolero. This program has been a struggle for her and I just think she wanted to end on a good note.

The way I look at it is ... if she thought she could do them, she would.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Red Dog ... regarding her pre-skate interview. I don't think she was complaining or making excuses. She was really just telling it like it was. Yes, it was her decision, and it may or may not work out ... but it was the reason she faltered at Worlds.

She may not have said she was making an excuse outright, but somehow I picked it up from the tone of her voice...like she had some kind of regret or wonder about her current position. But that's just me. Your mileage may vary.
 

Lucy25

Final Flight
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
I didn't hear anything in Michelle's tone or comments that made me think she was making excuses for being a year behind in COP. To me she just said it like it is, that she is behind, needs to catch up, and that she thinks she can handle it.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
But enough dwelling on the past...what's done is done. And what is clear to everyone about Kwan is she has work to do, and the status quo will not work anymore. We'll have to see what happens next season. She only has to look forward. She can't look back anymore. And as I said before, decide this summer whether to commit or quit.

If she commits, what will it take for her to get back to the top? Or CAN she get back on top?

If she quits, what will she pursue afterwards? Will she sign on for a show? Go off to college?

Get ready for the Kwan Show guys. All summer long.
 

nymkfan51

Medalist
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Will she get back on top? Hard to tell ...
Can she get back on top? Absolutely!

Her competition will be stiffer than it ever has been before, so clearly she will have to skate her best. I have no worries about her though. She will do what she's able to, and I trust her to make the best decisions for herself. She's the one who has to live with them, not me.
 

attyfan

Custom Title
Medalist
Joined
Mar 1, 2004
nymkfan51 said:
Red Dog ... regarding her pre-skate interview. I don't think she was complaining or making excuses. She was really just telling it like it was. Yes, it was her decision, and it may or may not work out ... but it was the reason she faltered at Worlds.

And about her 3/3's for the cheesefest ... we have no idea just HOW successful she has been with them in practice. Dick may have seen her land one or two, but she may have not been comfortable with them at that point. And I think after Worlds it was very important to her to skate a clean Bolero. This program has been a struggle for her and I just think she wanted to end on a good note.

The way I look at it is ... if she thought she could do them, she would.

ITA! After making so many mistakes on jumps at Worlds, I would think Kwan needed a clean program to build her confidence in her ordinary triples, before trying 3/3s. Also, maybe she saw what happened to Johnny and Kimmie as bad omens for trying things. I think she is in a better position to make a run for the OGM than is Plushy, just because Michelle isn't losing training time to surgery, so I don't think Michelle should be written off until Plushy is.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
She's the one who has to live with them, not me.

Well, you COULD say that indirectly (or directly in some cases lol) her decisions affect her fans. (I'll leave it up to you to find out in what way. :biggrin: )
 

show 42

Arm Chair Skate Fan
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I think she is in a better position to make a run for the OGM than is Plushy, just because Michelle isn't losing training time to surgery, so I don't think Michelle should be written off until Plushy is.

Good point, atty........42
 

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. No
6. When pigs fly, absolutely no way whatsoever :rofl:
7. On Slutskaya and Cohen, under the COP, a drastic amount, for the 3rd spot potentially, very minimal.
8. No
 

flowjo35

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 25, 2004
1. Yes. As she stated after worlds and Marshalls she knows what needs to be done and hopefully she will bring it full gear next season, it she decides to compete.

2. Yes. There can be no holding back for next season. I think it will be a matter of where she decides to try it for the first time.

3. Maybe. I hope she brings back the charlotte and ina baur into a jump.

4. Hopefully.

5. Hopefully at least one international. The cheesefests are also going to be judged under COP next season so she can get feed back there as well.

6. No.

7. She missed the podium by something like .37, so even without COP experience she probably would have made the podium had it not been for the bad QA.

I do not think Michelle has to rely on other skaters making mistakes to win, as some have suggested. Hopefully if she decides to compete next season she will have strong COP programs with all the ingredients(sp) for a great season and a satisfying big O experience. I like that Michelle is the underdog :)
 
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slutskayafan21

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
Well rightly or wrongly, there tends to be the feeling in figure skating that when you are the underdog, you need atleast a small mistake from a more favored skater. Perhaps that is the cynic in me speaking, but this new system does not seem to have solved some of the general problems from the old system, although the last few Worlds escaped with no major controversy.
 
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