Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

Enough Already

Enough already. Yes we DO know that she has been practicing and landing triple-triples in practice. She should have done one of them at Worlds. She is behind the field, and in fact she may be too far behind to make a dent at the Olympics. These past few years she has let the field overtake her. While they have "upped the ante" she has not. It makes me angry because she is letting herself down by not pushing the envelope. Forget this business about not wanting to injure herself-that's nonsense and just an excuse for not committing to what she needs to do. This was going on when Frank coached her and was one of their bones of contention. Whether you like her skating or not, look at what Irina has accomplished, illness and all.

Well, MK goes into this Olympics in a totally different situation than in 98 or 02. in '98 and '02 she was the favorite/one of the favorites and she was capable of winning, but the pressure got to her.

Now, going into 06, she is the underdog, a position she has been in before but not going into the olympics and certainly not at this level. She is also playing catch-up instead of being ahead of the field. Who knows, this might be an easier position for her to handle. But first she has to figure out what she wants. Does she just want another Olympic experience, or does she want that OGM? There are two completely different strategies to both.

Reddog,
you keep saying that the judges won't allow anyone to beat Kwan in the US at Nationals. Why? When have the judges ever denied someone that rightfully outskated Kwan at Nationals? Just curious. It wasn't '00. I was there and Sasha was still juniorish compared to Michelle, so what year(s) are you getting at?

I think she can still get on the podium. She missed it by Less than 4/10's of a point. That's less than landing one more clean jump, instead of having a so-so landing.

I think MK's biggest problem this year was not using one consistent version of Bolero in competition. I saw her perform it at 2 cheesefests, Nationals and Worlds - each time was different. I could understand why the 1st cheesefest would be different since it was the 1st competition of the season. However, by allowing herself to use various versions in competition, it made it easier to 'hesitate' - should I go for the 3-2-2 or the 3-2 or th 3-3? - which might explain why she didn't land a couple of jumps. When my cousin & I occasionally ballroom dance, we usually mess up because he wasn't quite sure what he wanted to do. I think she has to make herself do the full competitive version of the program every time to get her body and mind used to doing it by rote.

I think she's taking COP seriously. She's seen what everyone else is doing and will consider all of this as part of her decision making. Maybe she'll just take Katerina's attitude and just want to do well and not worry about the medal (although realistically, there's no way she doesn't want that OGM!) All of this could gain her the Eye of the Tiger.

I think she should compete at GP events next year - she really needs the feedback from the international judges before the Olympics. Since she is still the queen of the US ice, I think she could probably get preference to Skate America and SKate Canada, which will keep travel at a minimum.

Michelle is a podium contender for the Olympics based on the format alone. Were it not for the QR, she would have won bronze in Moscow, so without a QR at the Olympics, she definitely has a shot at bronze.

Right now, silver and gold are out of her reach under CoP. It's unfortunate for Michelle that the new system is in place, because she is hard wired to the 6.0 system. When she was learning how to compete it was all about skating clean with the total package of nice artistry, and Michelle mastered that system and won many titles. Michelle must curse Marie Le Gougne every night before she goes to bed.

However, Michelle defeated herself mentally at the last 2 Olympics, so maybe the new system is just what she needs to overcome her mental block. She said it is hard for her to concentrate on counting spin rotations and seconds in each spiral position, but all that counting could be a distraction from the pressure she feels on Olympic ice.

I don't expect to see anything new and astonishing from Michelle next year. I think she may do Skate America and then go into seclusion until she wins nationals, all the time talking about adding things and tinkering with her programs to add points. Then at the Olympics she will probably skate as she always does and come home with bronze. Three Olympic medals would be pretty impressive.

Fossi said:

Reddog,
you keep saying that the judges won't allow anyone to beat Kwan in the US at Nationals. Why? When have the judges ever denied someone that rightfully outskated Kwan at Nationals?

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I'm not sure I remember saying that the judges won't allow ANYONE to beat MK. But the thing is, when Kwan skates in the US she basically owns the place. No one comes close.

I didn't watch in 2000 so I don't know about that. But Kwan (at nationals) has consistently earned her titles. It's the others that haven't stepped up. In a way you could even argue that the lack of competition has hurt her in a way. There's no one to push her to do better. At Nationals the status quo works EVERY TIME. All the ladies that are getting ahead of MK aren't from the U.S.

JMO though. Your mileage may vary.

Red Dog said:

I'm not sure I remember saying that the judges won't allow ANYONE to beat MK. But the thing is, when Kwan skates in the US she basically owns the place. No one comes close.

I didn't watch in 2000 so I don't know about that. But Kwan (at nationals) has consistently earned her titles. It's the others that haven't stepped up. In a way you could even argue that the lack of competition has hurt her in a way. There's no one to push her to do better. At Nationals the status quo works EVERY TIME. All the ladies that are getting ahead of MK aren't from the U.S.

JMO though. Your mileage may vary.

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I don't think the judges just give it (title) to her. She seems to feel comfortable skating at the nationals and she has been very consistent, particularly at the nationals (except in 1997).

Sasha had the chance to beat her in 2003, 2004 and 2005, but she did not skate well enough to. In 2000 Sasha fell on a triple toward the end of her LP. Plus, at that time she did not have Michelle's maturity.

The ladies from other countries that got ahead of Michelle, did so by skating a technically more demanding LP than her (Arakawa in 2004, Slutskaya & Kostner in 2005). Sasha does not do 3-3 combination in the LP. Under the 6.0 system her spins did not get as much credit as they do in the COP. Plus Sasha's mistakes hurt her more than anything else. It was easy for Michelle to win the nationals by simply skating clean.

Vash

1. When she said after Worlds that she didn't even know what levels her Bolero elements were when it was in the process of being choreographed, having chosen a professional choreographer who hadn't made a profession of studying CoP, and she admitted this was a mistake, I think either she's finally gotten it, or she deliberately decided to see what her baseline 6.0 program would garner under CoP, to determine how much and exactly what she'd have to add next season. (Not that I think this is a good strategy the year before the Olympics. Two years before, perhaps.) I've always wondered if she was really in denial from the beginning about CoP, or if the USFS was so sure that CoP wouldn't pass, that they passed on this opinion to her, and she didn't adjust when it turned out not to pan out that way.

2. If she's revamped her jump technique under Artunian, then I would expect to see a 3T/3T at Nationals and Worlds. Her jumps look more powerful this year, but I'm not sure how much she had to change her technique to accomplish this. I'd be very surprised to see any other 3/3, particularly since she dropped the 3Lo this year.

3-4. I think she'll mine her old programs from pre-1999, and add in MITF and transitions into next year's program. (If only she could get a David Wilson program through RA's connection to JB's connection to DW, and she swore an oath in blood not to dilute it to nothing...)

Whether this will make any difference in her score will depend on one of two things happening:

a. The ISU squeezes, I mean trains, the judges to evaluate PCS properly -- i.e., according to the written code. That would mean that the top skaters wouldn't get an automatic 7-8 transitions score for a 5-6 transitions program. However, under this scenario, this is only one component score of five.

b. She skates so well and consistently in GP that she posts top scores and is a favorite going into the Olympics, as the judges have shown this year that PCS are scored as a bunch and on protocol. For example, one of the lower ranked Men in Moscow -- I don't have my notes with me to look up who -- had unusual entrances or steps into all but one jump and step sequence directly into a spin, and he was given transitions marks in the 4-5 range, just like his other scores. So much for the independence of the components and the written guidelines. Actually, a number of the lower-ranked men had the best transitions in the lot, as their coaches and choreographers tried to compensate for some of their lower jump content with more difficult entrances. Not that it showed in the scoring.

Side rant: I think that jumps should be levelled based on the difficulty of entrances, including specific criteria for the steps into jumps, to be decided by the callers. Also, I think the caller should determine if any break between the steps and jump is short enough to count as having met the criteria for the element, and if it isn't, it's an automatic -3 GOE.

5. If the rule is do GP or no Olympics, then either she will do GP or retire. Otherwise, I think the only way she'll do two GP events is if this year she follows Arutunian's game plan, not her own.

It's an interesting legal issue -- unless, of course, Cinquanta shoves through a series of rule changes the way he shoved through CoP -- whether the ISU can force skaters to do GP in order to qualify for the Olympics. While the ISU is the sole representative of skating for officiating and creating rules of the field for the sport, from everything I've read, the National Federations are responsible for establishing the criteria for choosing (or refusing to send) participants from their country, within Olympic rules (such as requiring citizenship.) I wonder under what circumstances the ISU can "de-certify" a participant for the Olympics, as opposed to a judge, group of judges, or a Federation, apart from having turned pro. Fining them, perhaps, for not participating in GPs. like they do if a skater team qualifies for but does not perform in the exhibitions.

6. I don't think Meissner will beat Cohen, even if she had a 3A and a quad, let alone Kwan. (The only way I see Cohen beating Kwan is if Cohen has the ultimate skate and Kwan in shaky, but then Cohen may have left her best performance on Nationals ice.) Unless Meissner makes the same jump in presentation that Kwan made between 1995-6, I can't imagine that the international judges will score Meissner over Kwan or Cohen in GP competition, as they did Hughes over Slutskaya and Kwan in the fall leading up to SLC.

7. Frankly, I think that she has to suck up and make a show of a good attitude -- i.e, show some competitive fire, compete outside NA, project to the crowd instead of expecting the crowd to love her, i.e. be a good international trouper -- as much as she has to add elements.

8. Only if she gives two very solid skates, and everyone else falters badly in at least one of the two programs, or if she keeps her head while everyone about her is losing theirs (to paraphrase Rudyard Kipling).

It seems to me that many posters including those not interested in her, are giving some of the best corrective criticisms of MK I've ever read, and none are putting her down but trying to be helpful. It would be nice if she could read some of these critiques both from her fans and nonfans.

Joe

I still don't get why some are saying Michelle can win only if others make mistakes, without knowing what she will have to offer next season. Is this being based on this seasons programs? I remember how much she changed in the 1995-1996 season, maybe she will do it again. I have learned never to underestimate or count her out if she decides to compete.

1. Will she really get the CoP message now?
She got the message loud and clear in Moscow, and said as much at Marshall's.

2. Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?
I think she has to start practicing her FS most of the time with a 3/3, and as a safeguard, have at least two 3/2/2s in the program as well, and maybe a pair of 2As.

3. Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?
I don't see any reason why there wouldn't be, as she's had several interesting moves in her programs over the years. She needs lots of these moves to up her transitions.

4. Will there be any transitions leading into elements particuarly jumps?
See above. She knows she has to do integrate these moves in with her jumps to get those bonus points.

5. Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?
I think this year she almost has to do the GP or she'll still be wondering how her programs measure up against the competition. She as much as hinted that skipping the GP last season was a mistake. This coming season is likely to be her last as an eligible skater, so there's no use "saving" herself for future competitions. This is it, Michelle---you've got to GO for it.

6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals.
No chance. I think Kimmie is going to struggle this season with the puberty bug. She's gotten a lot taller and soon she will start to fill out. Her jump problems at Marshall's hint there's more trouble to come.

7. How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?
She missed out on a medal because of the QR in Moscow--and there's no QR in the Olympics--and beat Kostner in both SP and FS. With a clean CoP-friendly FS, there is no reason why she can't beat a typical Cohen FS (and Cohen tends to freeze up at the most important events). As for Slutskaya, something tells me her skate in Moscow was her Hughes/SLC performance and she may not be able to duplicate it in Torino. Irina skated poorly at Euros in Torino, and it may be that the altitude works against her there. On paper, a bravura performance from Kwan should beat a so-so Irina performance, even under CoP, but that is assuming the judges don't stack the deck in Irina's favor, a risky assumption.

8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?
Only if she has two squeaky-clean performances and all the other top ladies participate in a splatfest of horrendous proportions in both SP and FS.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know:

(1) If the GP is an accurate measure of how the CoP would work at Worlds? I read on another board, who attributed the matter to Tatiana Tarasova, that Shizuka was given level 2 or level 3 on certain spins and spirals in the GP series, but did them the same way at Worlds, where she was only given a
level 1. If the same moves are judged differently at GP than at Worlds, then Kwan is right -- she could only guess at the levels until she competed at Worlds.

(2) Why are we quicker to write off Kwan than Joubert or Arakawa? Even with a poorly choreographed, non-CoP-friendly program, she worked herself up, coming in third in both the SP and LP, and nearly medaling, whereas Joubert and Arakawa, despite their experience, both crashed-and-burned.

IMHO, Kwan simply choked (i.e., let her emotions block her ability to react to her errors) in the QR -- which I don't think she has ever done before. Even in SLC, after Kwan fell, she could control her nerves to finish strong, but she couldn't do this in the QR. She has now had her "trial by fire", and, I don't think she will lose her nerve again. She may lose Olys because of conscioius choices (such as "holding back" or a competitor has "spark", whereas she did not -- which is how she explains her loss in Nagano, or "rushing a jump -- how Kwan explained her fall at SLC) but I don't think these choices are "choking".

What the GP can do for a skater with limited experience under CoP is to show how small tweaks can increase points. Shizuka skated poorly at Worlds, with a lethargic FS where she doubled jumps and made the serious mistake of replacing a required 2A with a 3T. She was just "off" in every respect.

Michelle needs to skate a FS with the improved spins, transitional moves and upgraded combinations at least twice before judges to feel comfortable with the program and measure herself against the competition. I don't think there will be an international winter cheesefest, so the only way she can get this experience is in the GP and I think she MUST bite the bullet this year and do it. It's either that or try it just once at 4CC less than 3 weeks before Torino, and I doubt she will want to do that. Not only would she not be facing top competition in Colorado Springs, but there wouldn't be time between 4CC and Torino to make any changes.

I hope Michelle's back is not hurting more than she lets on. Michelle is never one to complain. But last year at the Campbell's event she tried to raise the level of her spins by putting in more positions, but had to revert to the simpler versions because it hurt her back.

Then she was all set to do Skate America and Skate Canada (Shep Goldberg all but guarenteed she would be at Skate America up to two weeks before the show). Then she changed her mind at the last minute, saying that she preferred the strategy of "pacing herself" for the end of the season.

At the Marshall's event just televised, Dick Button said that Michelle took the ice only briefly for practice, then left immediately saying that her back was sore. This raised concerns, according to Button, that she might have to withdraw.

Her decisions may be more complicated than just how to tweak her programs CoP-wise.

Mathman

chuckm said:

... It's either that or try it just once at 4CC less than 3 weeks before Torino, and I doubt she will want to do that. Not only would she not be facing top competition in Colorado Springs, but there wouldn't be time between 4CC and Torino to make any changes.

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I read somewhere that the 4CCs is two or three weeks before Torino's opening ceremonies, but the ladies don't skate until the last week of Olys -- so there should be five or six weeks between 4CCs and Olys. Is this correct? If so, I think all the top US ladies should do 4CCs to get practice competing at altitude (especially Sasha; Michelle's training in Lake Arrowhead should give her plenty of altitude training)

To get back on the podium, all Michelle needs to do is skate better than she did at Worlds. Even skating as badly as she did, with a bare bones program, she almost made the podium.

However, if she wants to WIN, that is another thing entirely. Then she will have to work on some combination of a 3/3, more MITF, a higher level of difficulty in her elements to fit CoP, etc. She will have to come up with some great choreography and programs which inspire her. We know from the past that she is capable of that. This will also probably require competing more.

In a nutshell, to win silver or bronze she can do it just skating clean and inspired. But for gold, she will need to make major improvements.

attyfan said:

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know:

(1) If the GP is an accurate measure of how the CoP would work at Worlds? I read on another board, who attributed the matter to Tatiana Tarasova, that Shizuka was given level 2 or level 3 on certain spins and spirals in the GP series, but did them the same way at Worlds, where she was only given a
level 1. If the same moves are judged differently at GP than at Worlds, then Kwan is right -- she could only guess at the levels until she competed at Worlds.

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I wish there was a way to get TT into a discussion on figure skating and, in particular, the scoring in the CoP. I remember her saying early on that it will be easier to cheat in the CoP than it is in the 6.0 system.

Her remarks about Shizuka are quite astute (although she is the coach). I presume the Technical Assistant (Caller) can say whatever level he wants whenever he wants and wherever he wants in whatever competition he is Calling.

Yet posters in GS will exclaim, there is no such thing as 'wuzrobbed'. The judges always pick the correct winner and placements so it is irrelevant that the 5th place skater did not get the scores he deserved. I can tell you it is hearbreaking for that 5th place skater.

If Shizuka's spin was a Level 3 in one competition and a Level 1 in another, then there is something 'rotten in Denmark'.

I don't want to hear how wonderful the CoP is in reality.

Joe

Has anyone confirmed that Arakawa did the exact same element in each competition (including the same number of revolutions in each position)?

attyfan said:

IMHO, Kwan simply choked (i.e., let her emotions block her ability to react to her errors) in the QR -- which I don't think she has ever done before.

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I don't know if she "choked" in the quali round in Moscow any more than she did in the quali round in Dortmund, where, as defending World Champion, she was held up enough to skate in the final group in the SP. Her performance in Dortmand quali round was no better than it was in Moscow, where she was the defending bronze medallist and the powers that be had decided they had had enough.

hockeyfan228 said:

I don't know if she "choked" in the quali round in Moscow any more than she did in the quali round in Dortmund, where, as defending World Champion, she was held up enough to skate in the final group in the SP. Her performance in Dortmand quali round was no better than it was in Moscow, where she was the defending bronze medallist and the powers that be had decided they had had enough.

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IIRC, Dormand's QR she simply felt once. While Turino's QR except the fall she doubled several jumps, only 3 landed cleanly and only one combo. The top 3 ladies in last 2 worlds (2004, 2005) each got their shares for being held up in different phases in either worlds.