Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 18, 2005

I don't think MK choked. Sasha choked in the Dortmund LP. She was an inch away from a gold medal and just choked.

Michelle had bad skates in Qualis Dortmund and Moscow which I believe to be from lack of interest. (She's got to change!!!) With Sasha choking in the Dortmund LP, MK just moved up from a 6th to a 4th to a 3rd. I have a feeling she thought she could do that in Moscow. But she couldn't! Lesson learned, I hope.

Joe

R.D. · Apr 18, 2005

I don't think MK choked. Sasha choked in the Dortmund LP. She was an inch away from a gold medal and just choked.

Am I the only one who vehemently disagrees with this? I agree that she choked, BUT Arakawa was basically untouchable that night. I really don't think anyone (maybe besides Kwan) could have beaten her that night. Even Cohen if she was clean and/or on.

hockeyfan228 · Apr 19, 2005

mzheng said:
IIRC, Dormand's QR she simply felt once. While Turino's QR except the fall she doubled several jumps, only 3 landed cleanly and only one combo. The top 3 ladies in last 2 worlds (2004, 2005) each got their shares for being held up in different phases in either worlds.

In Dortmund QR, she simply skated a lackluster performance, traveled on spins, and was rather slow. It wasn't about one missed jump, which is what she had in the LP.

My comment wasn't about any other skater but Kwan.

hockeyfan228 · Apr 19, 2005

Red Dog said:
Am I the only one who vehemently disagrees with this? I agree that she choked, BUT Arakawa was basically untouchable that night. I really don't think anyone (maybe besides Kwan) could have beaten her that night. Even Cohen if she was clean and/or on.

No, I agree with Joe. Cohen, with a tight, flawed, deflated LP, took three first-place ordinals from the stellar Arakawa as it was. I don't believe for a second that at least two more judges wouldn't have given first to Cohen had she skated clean or on, and certainly if she had skated clean AND on, especially since Arakawa skated first and they left lots of room. The judges were aching to give the world title to Cohen.

ladybug · Apr 19, 2005

Mathman, I have to agree with you. I think there is more going on with Michelle's back than she wants anyone to know.

I hope she can give it her all and then take a rest after the Olympics but maybe she feels it is better to stay injury free and whatever will be will be. Can't say I would blame her. No matter how COP friendly her program is for next season I hope she can go to the Olympics and skate her heart out. She doesn't need an OGM, she just needs the perfect program that will make her proud and that she can feel good about.

I want to see her bring tears to my eyes one more time.

Ladybug

mzheng · Apr 19, 2005

hockeyfan228 said:
In Dortmund QR, she simply skated a lackluster performance, traveled on spins, and was rather slow. It wasn't about one missed jump, which is what she had in the LP.

My comment wasn't about any other skater but Kwan.

But was it all about jump under 6.0? Who landed most jumps, 3/3 got big prop in marks included the 2nd mark? Even under COP, jumps earned much more points than spins or any other elements.

And further more, there were other ladies in the same competetion, especially the top ladies. If you were talking about judging, placement, etc., then you can't just isolate Kwan alone, she was not competing to herself in these competetions.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 19, 2005

I agree being the underdog could be good for Michelle in a sense. The question is though, will the U.S media see her as the underdog given her iconic status? Somehow I have my doubts, and they might still put pressure on her as the so-called overwhelming favorite for the gold, in which case would the pressure really decipitate at all?

slutskayafan21 · Apr 19, 2005

chuckm said:
As for Slutskaya, something tells me her skate in Moscow was her Hughes/SLC performance and she may not be able to duplicate it in Torino. Irina skated poorly at Euros in Torino, and it may be that the altitude works against her there. On paper, a bravura performance from Kwan should beat a so-so Irina performance, even under CoP, but that is assuming the judges don't stack the deck in Irina's favor, a risky assumption.

I am sorry but I dont understand this. Irina is a two-time World Champion, who narrowly lost two other World golds to Michelle after leads after the short, 6-time World medalist, 6-time European Champion, and 4-time Grand Prix final Champion. Of those she received two possable gifts, 2002 GP final, and this years Euros.

To label her having a great skate as a Hughes/SLC once in a lifetime-performance is unfair IMO. She has had many great performances in her career, other than just a so-so Irina performance. Her credentials are far above Mrs. Hughes.

The altitude in Turin is a valid point and could be true. The part of about a great performance from her automatically being once-in-a-lifetime though I dont agree at all.

lavender · Apr 19, 2005

slutskayafan21 said:
I agree being the underdog could be good for Michelle in a sense. The question is though, will the U.S media see her as the underdog given her iconic status? Somehow I have my doubts, and they might still put pressure on her as the so-called overwhelming favorite for the gold, in which case would the pressure really decipitate at all?

Probably because she didn't land on the podium, she hasn't shown what she can do (she does 3/3s in practice) and she doesn't do that great under Olympic pressure. She still might be the focus because I don't know if the media feels like they can depend on Sasha. Regardless of Michelle actually is a fav she will certainly not be an overwhelming favorite internationally.

brad640 · Apr 19, 2005

ladybug said:
I hope she can give it her all and then take a rest after the Olympics but maybe she feels it is better to stay injury free and whatever will be will be. Can't say I would blame her. No matter how COP friendly her program is for next season I hope she can go to the Olympics and skate her heart out. She doesn't need an OGM, she just needs the perfect program that will make her proud and that she can feel good about.

I want to see her bring tears to my eyes one more time.

I think there will be tears for Michelle no matter what happens next year, since there will not be another Olympics for her. I would also love to see Michelle give one of her classic performances at the Olympics because the last 2 have been among her worst performances. In 1998 when she lost to Tara, I think Frank and Lori were partly to blame. The 1998 Rachmaninoff was one of my all time favorite short programs, but I don't think Lyra was a good Olympic program for her to compete with Tara's high energy because it relied on her expression, and at the Olympics when the pressure was on, the music did not help her at all. I think they should have done something forceful and exotic like Salome, or even reprised Salome. Frank and Lori were not acting in Michelle's best interest because they were living out their Janet Lynn fantasies with the "floating on a cloud" idea for Lyra. Michelle's style is very different from Janet Lynn, and it was shortsighted of them to make her try to recreate an outdated program.

I still don't understand what happened in 02 with the 2 foot landing and the fall. I think part of the problem was the media circus she created by coaching herself. I know she needed to get away from Frank for mental stability, but I don't think she was able to accomplish very much training wise on her own. I hope that over the coming months she will allow Rafael to continue helping her make improvements in her skating skills.

jenaj · Apr 19, 2005

I agree on Lyra. I think it was a boring program. I too would like to see Michelle skate to music with a big impact. She really knows how to sell a program--and yes, to bring tears to your eyes-- but needs some material to work with.

Dee4707 · Apr 19, 2005

Brad640, I love your signature picture but I'm hoping that Johnny will stand on the top step. I hope he gets his quad and a killer diller program for the Olys.

Dee

Eeyora · Apr 19, 2005

I hope she does but at this point who knows? I don't think she should set her goal at a bronze medal because I think she could be capable of more.

nicole_l · Apr 19, 2005

Brad, your signature picture is so flipping awesome!!!
Three of my favorites on the podium? That would be excellent.

attyfan · Apr 19, 2005

slutskayafan21 said:
... To label her having a great skate as a Hughes/SLC once in a lifetime-performance is unfair IMO. She has had many great performances in her career, other than just a so-so Irina performance. Her credentials are far above Mrs. Hughes.

The altitude in Turin is a valid point and could be true. The part of about a great performance from her automatically being once-in-a-lifetime though I dont agree at all.

Somehow, I didn't see anything in the idea that Moscow was Irina's "once in a lifetime" performance as impugning her credentials (which I agree are far above Miss Hughes). What happened in Moscow was the culmination of a comeback from illness (both hers and her mother's) and in her own hometown, and these factors gave her skate a special "glow". Since Torino is not Irina's hometown, and (I hope and pray) that Irina stays healthy and her mom gets better, I don't think her skate will have that same magic.

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 19, 2005

slutskayafan21 said:
I am sorry but I dont understand this. Irina is a two-time World Champion, who narrowly lost two other World golds to Michelle after leads after the short, 6-time World medalist, 6-time European Champion, and 4-time Grand Prix final Champion. Of those she received two possable gifts, 2002 GP final, and this years Euros.

You have to remember that first World Championship of Irina had five eastern European judges all agreeing with each other. When Dick was questioned whether Kwan could win this, he replied: Not with this lineup of judges!

Aside from that, Irina is the world's most accomplished female technical skater. She abounds with tricks; her choreography is overloaded with tricks; her speed is hampered because she doesn't skate that much except for the footwork (and the speed is there); she is very cautious with her tricks which takes away from the flow. But the technical is so overpowering that, imo, it is also registered in the PCS scores. Irina will be a tough cookie to beat in Torino. At this point in time, no one comes near her.

How much can Kwan make up after years of neglect? How much can Cohen get her jumps stablilized? How much can Carolina mature? How much can Arakawa make her comeback under Tarassova?

Let's check out the GPs and see if there is any change in Irina's competitors.

Joe

harrah · Apr 19, 2005

Q&A Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

Q-1: Will she really get the CoP message now?

I think she FINALLY does, but that still doesn't excuse the fact that she decided to skate in 2 Cheesefests instead of a couple a GP events. I actually think Kwan could do quite well under CoP.

Q-2: Will there be any 3x3s in the competition and not just in practice?

After really studying CoP, I realized that if, for example Carolina Kostner, lands a 3flip/3toe combination she will get 9.5 points. If another skater lands a 3 flip and a 3 toe separately, that skater will get 9.5 points for those 2 jumps! Which means doing 7 triples in a free skate (including a max of 3 in combination) carries as many base points (jump-wise) as a skater who does 7 triples with 1 or 2 3/3s! So I don't think a 3/3 is really necessary for MK as much as using all the jumping passes available in the free skate. The only real way to gain more points in the jump department would be to land a 3Axel or a quad, and the jump would have to be perfect (an underrotated 3Axel only counts as a 2Axel). But I do think MK should give it a try if she can land her 3/3s successfully in practice.

Q-3&4 : Other than the trade mark change of edge spiral, will there be any other Moves in the Field?

We can only hope! Her free skates have been so threadbare in the past few seasons and really not up to her unique talent!

Q-5: Will there be any GP events this coming season? Are they necessary?
2 Words: Worlds 2005!!!!

Q-6: 6. Will Kimmie beat her at the next Nationals?
Who knows, anything can happen, but it's unlikely. Under Cop, throughout all her competitions in the Jr. Grand Prix and Jr.Worlds, Kimmie has NEVER scored higher than 93 points in her free skate and never more than 54pts in the SP! The top brass in the Sr Womens field get these kind of points when they skate disastrously! That's because most of Kimmie' elements (spins, footwork, spirals and even jumps) are LEVEL 1's!!! A fact that neither the American media or even her own coach seem to understand. They think an underrotated triple axel and 1 or 2 3/3s will be enough... it won't, just ask Miki Ando! On average, she's about 20 to 30 points behind what Cohen, Arakawa, Slustkaya, Kwan & Co usually get!

I actually like Kimmie's skating, but I don't like the way the media has been overhyping her because she'll be an American 16 year-old at the next Olympics just like the past 2 Olympic Champs although there is no comparison between their prior skating experience and Kimmie's skating experience so far. I think their adding extra pressure on her and wouldn't be surprised if she collapsed at Nationals because of that.

Q-7- 8:How much ground does she need to gain to be competitive with the present top three Worlds?/8. Can Michelle win the Olympics without doing anything about the above and rely on her traditional presentation?

IMO, all she needs is an outstandingly choreographed free program like she had before SLC. And consistency can go a long way!

While watching a repeat of Worlds on CBC this past weekend, I couldn't get something the commentator said about Michelle as they were showing clips of the Ladies QR out of my head. He said that because she only skates in competitions on US soil where the audience dotes on her no matter what she does (and she feeds off of that), she seems to have difficulty relating to the audience when she skates abroad. When he said that, a light came on in my mind. I realized that since SLC (Feb 2002) she has only skated abroad 3 times: 2002 Wolds in Nagano; 2004 Worlds in Dortmund and 2005 Worlds in Moscow . And her results where: Silver in 2002; bronze in 2004; 4th place in 2005! And let's be honest for a minute, her overall performances at these events were not up to her usual standards. I don't think it's a coincidence the 4 of her 5 World titles were won in North America. Worlds 2000 in Nice is the last time she skated flawlessly and fiercly abroad. I bring that up because Torino 2006 just happens to be ABROAD!!!!

brad640 · Apr 19, 2005

Dee4707 said:
Brad640, I love your signature picture but I'm hoping that Johnny will stand on the top step. I hope he gets his quad and a killer diller program for the Olys.

nicole_l said:
Brad, your signature picture is so flipping awesome!!!
Three of my favorites on the podium? That would be excellent.

Thanks Dee and Nicole! Now that the tours are dying down, I thought it was time to start visualizing success for Olympic training.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 19, 2005

Joesitz said:
You have to remember that first World Championship of Irina had five eastern European judges all agreeing with each other. When Dick was questioned whether Kwan could win this, he replied: Not with this lineup of judges!

Michelle and Irina both skated very well in the long, similar standard, and Irina won a 6-3 split, where is the crime there, is Kwan supposed to win whenever the skating is close? Secondly whether Kwan won the long or not was irrelevent since Michelle needed Irina to finish 3rd in the long, after she was deservedly placed 3rd for her faulty short program.

You are entitled your opinion but I dont view Slutskaya's 2002 World title as being controversial or undeserved in anyway. I was only pointing out the blatant controversies like the 2005 Europeans and 2002 Grand Prix final.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 19, 2005

attyfan said:
Somehow, I didn't see anything in the idea that Moscow was Irina's "once in a lifetime" performance as impugning her credentials (which I agree are far above Miss Hughes). What happened in Moscow was the culmination of a comeback from illness (both hers and her mother's) and in her own hometown, and these factors gave her skate a special "glow". Since Torino is not Irina's hometown, and (I hope and pray) that Irina stays healthy and her mom gets better, I don't think her skate will have that same magic.

Ok I see your point. However there is an enormous gap between her skate at Worlds and a so-so skate. A skate, a notch down from Moscow, could still be a clean and very good skate, that might or might not have a 3/3. Also how likely is Kwan to have a skate for herself like Irina had in Moscow, it could happen but it isnt any more likely for her than Irina at this point, that I see? Kwan coming up and Irina going down does not neccessarily mean Kwan is likely to maximize out a spectacularly optimum performance, while Irina is likely to be so-so. Irina is just as likely, probably more, to do a triple-triple than Michelle. She seems atleast as likely to a clean skate, at this point in his time. Of course perspectives on both could change alot by Turin, but I mean as of now.

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