What would top ten order of finish be for men: a)all with quads, b)all with jumps now

slutskayafan21 · Apr 27, 2005

What would top ten order of finish be for men: a)all with quads, b)all with jumps now

All with quads:

1)Lambiel
2)Sandhu
3)Plushenko
4)Buttle
5)Weir
6)Joubert
7)Lysacek
8)Lindemann
9)Li
10)Goebel

All with current jumps:

1)Lambiel
2)Sandhu
3)Plushenko
4)Joubert
5)Lindemann
6)Goebel
7)Buttle
8)Li
9)Weir
10)Lysacek

This is no prediction thread for the Olympics. It is with their current abilities, if all skated clean in two different situations, one all with one quad in the short, two in the long; the ones they either do nor, or are most likely to do; or the current jumps they try in competition, how do you project they would place.

Mathman · Apr 27, 2005

Hmm...Well, I am assuming that when you say "their current abilities" you mean that Plushenko is recovered from his hernia operations and that his knee problems aren't any worse. In that case, with a quad I would have to go with

1. Plushenko
2. Weir
3. Buttle
4. Lambiel
5. Joubert

It's hard to know where to put Sandhu. With two totally clean programs and three quads he could win it all. But that is such a huge and unrealistic assumption that I have to put him farther down the list.

With current jumps...I have to confess that I am a quad man -- if you want to be the best you have to step up to the challenge.

1. Plushenko
2. Lambiel
3. Joubert
4. Li
5. Sandhu

chuckm · Apr 27, 2005

Hmmm. This was the exact same message posted on FSU by Davey25.

It's pretty amusing to see Lambiel and Sandhu placed ahead of Plushenko, with or without quads.

First of all, Sandhu 'supposedly' has quads but has landed precious few cleanly this past season. He has been none too consistent on his 3As, either. And he's never skated cleanly in two phases of an international event. At Worlds 2005, In the QR he popped his opening quad combo to a 2T, had a doublefooted landing on his 3A combo, popped his 2A and doubled his 3F. In the SP, he landed the 4T3T but popped his 3A. In the FS he landed 4 clean triples and a quad but fell on a 3L and popped his solo 3A. Not one clean program in the bunch.

Sandhu finished 8th at Worlds 2003, 8th at Worlds 2004 and 7th at Worlds 2005 (he would have been 8th had Plushy not withdrawn). Sandhu on the podium in Torino? Not likely.

I think this is more likely:
1. Plushenko
2. Lambiel or Weir
3. Weir or Lambiel
4. Buttle or Joubert or Lysacek
5. Joubert or Buttle or Lysacek
6. Joubert or Buttle or Lysacek

If Klimkin is back, I think Eman would be lucky to finish in the top 8.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 27, 2005

Chuckm, is your list with the quads or without the quads? You only gave one list.

As for Lambiel and Sandhu over Plushenko, if they all skated cleanly with quads, I am banking on Plushenko's outrageously inflated PCS scores coming down due to him losing some time and Lambiel gaining the World title. I could be wrong on that, it is what I am thinking could happen. His choreography and transitions dont deserve the scores he gets, he barely has any in the program.
His performance, skating skills, I could see giving huge marks for though.

If judged fairly as well, Lambiel, Sandhu, Buttle, and even Weir, should all kill Plushenko on the spin scores, and get far higher marks in that area than Plushenko. Lambiel should gain several points per spin on Plushenko, they are so superior.

nicole_l · Apr 27, 2005

If Klimkin is back, I think Eman would be lucky to finish in the top 8.

Hey let's not jinx him!
But really, I think that a decently clean (like, a mistake, not five) Sandhu is podium material.

curious · Apr 27, 2005

slutskayafan21 said:
Chuckm, is your list with the quads or without the quads? You only gave one list.

As for Lambiel and Sandhu over Plushenko, if they all skated cleanly with quads, I am banking on Plushenko's outrageously inflated PCS scores coming down due to him losing some time and Lambiel gaining the World title. I could be wrong on that, it is what I am thinking could happen. His choreography and transitions dont deserve the scores he gets, he barely has any in the program.
His performance, skating skills, I could see giving huge marks for though.

If judged fairly as well, Lambiel, Sandhu, Buttle, and even Weir, should all kill Plushenko on the spin scores, and get far higher marks in that area than Plushenko. Lambiel should gain several points per spin on Plushenko, they are so superior.

yes,I'm sure the judges think sandhu(the most wasted talent I have ever seen in this sport)buttle(no quads, not a very good jumper),lambiel(not very consistent,won because plushy withdrew)are suprior than plushy lol! :biggrin:

Mathman · Apr 27, 2005

To me, it would be cool if someone did skate well enough to give Plushenko a run for his money.

The problem is, the rules of this thread say, what if all of these competitors skated cleanly with (or without) a quad. Except for Plushenko (and maybe Lindemann once at 2004 Worlds, and maybe Goebel some time long past), has any of the men on this list ever skated a clean 8 triple program with two quads? Is any of them likely ever to do it?

I put Weir high on my list under the fantasy assumption that he would miraculously do three quads in two flawless back to back programs. In real life this is not going to happen, but it's fun to imagine it.

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 27, 2005

At this point in time:

I see Plushy with no medical problems at the present time, as the top skater. He's had the knee problem for at least 4 years and it has not stopped him from being golden. I'm sure the hernia was successful and it is now over and out. While I am not a fan of Plushy, I do indeed respect his solid competitive performances.

I see Brian Making a desperate comeback to the podium and challenging Stephane.

These three Europeans are the top male skaters at this point in time, and very cautiously I can see them sharing the podium in Torino. It could be a European sweep. But there are many competitions coming up before Olys and the above is based solely at this point in time.

Challengers to the above: Weir and Buttle

Hit or Miss Skaters (who could upset the apple cart if they hit): Sandhu, Lindemann.

Just my opinion at this point in time. Looking forward to GP series.

Joe

chuckm · Apr 28, 2005

I think you have to consider the probability that each of these skaters can skate two clean programs. That is far from 100% for any of them, but I'd say Plushenko, the most consistent skater, has at least a 70% probability of skating two clean progams.

Weir is next, at maybe 60%.

After that, the probabilities drop drastically, and Sandhu, the least consistent IMO, has about a 10% probability of skating one clean program and a less than 1% probability of skating two clean ones, and that is true quads or no quads.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

Alot of you seem to be factoring in consistency and what people are likely to do. Keep in mind my question is a hypothetical based only on everybody doing "totally clean programs" so consistency is not a factor except in how a judge might factor in past inconsistencies. It does not neccessarily have to be realistic, it is more a fun thing is all, but consistency, and mistakes skaters usually make, are supposed to be excluded in your choices. :rock:

chuckm · Apr 28, 2005

The problem for me is that I have never seen even one clean program from Eman, and have no idea what that would be like or how it would be scored. I do know that Plushenko's jumps are much bigger, cover more ice and are much more secure than Eman's, that Plushy has lightning-fast speed, and that Plushy gets very, very high PCS scores even when he makes minor mistakes.

I would have to conclude that a 'perfect' Plushy would beat the other men with no problem. None of the others have his speed and power, and he does jump combinations most of the others have never even attempted.

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 28, 2005

nor his stops and poses. Other skaters do have more flow and speed is relative to the choreography. When Plushy stops to pose there is no speed. It's a breath catcher. However, he does have solid jumps and that's what counts in figure skating!!!

Joe

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

I agree Plushenko has the best and biggest jumps of all the current men. He probably has the best footwork. On the program components he is probably the best in performance and skating skills. I find him rather mediocre in spins, choreography, and transitions though; and if he received the scores he deserves in those areas; I could see a clean Lambiel beating a clean Plushenko, or even a clean Sandhu beating him.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

It is amazing nobody is questioning my pick of Goebel so far down. Two years ago people would have thought I was crazy. It is amazing how quickly things can change in this sport.

chuckm · Apr 28, 2005

Slutskayafan or davey25, whatever your name is, we KNOW you think Lambiel and Sandhu could beat Plushenko. You've made about 50 posts on at least 3 boards pounding away on that theme.

Many of us simply do not agree with you. Lambiel won a World Championship because an injured Plushenko had to withdraw. Sandhu has never stood on the World podium and hasn't ever finished in the top 5 at Worlds, and that is because he is constitutionally incapable of performing evenly in International competition. He is nearly 25 years old and hasn't even accomplished as much as Michael Weiss, who hasn't 1/10 of this talent.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

Well I could say chuckm we know you think Weir is better than Lambiel, and that Weir would beat Lambiel if he is healthy, but very few people seem to agree with you. My so-called unusual views are no less a departure from reality as yours.

chuckm · Apr 28, 2005

I never said Weir is better than Lambiel. I think Johnny has the potential to beat many of the top skaters, including Lambiel, and I hope Johnny masters the quad, stays healthy and mounts a challenge this coming year. The one thing I do not do is go from board to board to board trumpeting that a clean Weir with quads can easily beat Plushenko. But a clean Weir is more the rule than the exception, and that cannot be said of your heroes Lambiel and Sandhu.

Johnny Weir is 20, the same age as Lambiel, but has been skating for only 8 years, while Lambiel has been skating competitively for far longer than that. That is why I speak of Johnny's potential to fully develop his skills and become a great champion in the future.

That is in contrast to Sandhu who at 24 has squandered his talent.

hockeyfan228 · Apr 28, 2005

slutskayafan21 said:
It is amazing nobody is questioning my pick of Goebel so far down. Two years ago people would have thought I was crazy. It is amazing how quickly things can change in this sport.

Two years ago the predictions that Goebel wouldn't repeat as an Olympic medallist argued that other skaters' improved jumping and presentation would win over his nothing-but-solid-jumping. Apart from some worries that his body wouldn't be able to stand the pounding -- said about all of the quad meisters -- I don't remember any predictions that Goebel would be out of the top six in 2005-6 because he would lose his jumps over a two-year period.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

My heroes Lambiel and Sandhu, LOL! After a statement like that I need to say no more. Anybody who knows me will know I cant stand Sandhu, he is one of my least favorite skaters. Just because I recognize his capability if he were to skate cleanly has nothing to do with how I feel about him.

This is the first thread I have even mentioned Sandhu's name in a long time,
I would like to see you find another recent time I mentioned his name at all.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 28, 2005

By the way Lambiel is 8 months younger than Weir, it is closer to a year than the same age, he just happened to have his birthday only a month ago, Weir has one coming up in the summer.

What would top ten order of finish be for men: a)all with quads, b)all with jumps now

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