Kwan at the Crossroads and Choices

[attyfan]

that didn't happen for chen lu. she was a world champ in 95 or 96(I think)had a perfect beatiful skate but receive zero benefit from that but this was in canada

Chen Lu was never the reigning World Champ going into an Olys; she won in '95, and took silver in '96. Being reigning World Champ does not always help at the next year's Worlds -- think of Shizuka this year. Reigning World Champ also lost Olys in 1984, where reigning 1983 World champ Roz Summers lost to reigning Worlds fourth place holder Katerina Witt, and in 2002, where reigning World bronze medalist Hughes beat reigning World chanp Kwan.

[jenaj]

I think Team USA--for Cohen as well as Kwan--needs to put out some public criticism of the current judging under the COP that rewards things like repeated Bielmanns (including a Bielmann "spiral" that apparently subsitutes for the inablility to do a free-leg spiral), and does not penalize things like ungainly (Bielmann) positions, spins that travel and flutzes. In sports like professional basketball there is a continual "war of words" during the play-offs and championship series to point out problems with the referee-ing in an effort to keep the refs "honest." First, the COP system needs to be tweaked so it's not the Code of Bielmanns. Second, the judges need to be held accountable in the press and in the TV commentary for their mistakes. Even thought we don't know who scored what, the individual judges' scores are posted. These individual scores need to be scrutinized and publicly criticized where necessary (as where a skater flutzes but is not penalized).

[Joesitz]

Chen Lu was never the reigning World Champ going into an Olys; she won in '95, and took silver in '96. Being reigning World Champ does not always help at the next year's Worlds -- think of Shizuka this year. Reigning World Champ also lost Olys in 1984, where reigning 1983 World champ Roz Summers lost to reigning Worlds fourth place holder Katerina Witt, and in 2002, where reigning World bronze medalist Hughes beat reigning World chanp Kwan.

I think what you are saying is that the Olys is a competition which has nothing to do with a skater's previous wins. I should hope so but it does concentrate on the top six in last years' Worlds. JMO.

In the Ladies event, which ones would you eliminate for consideration to WINNING the 2006 Olympic Games?:

Irina Slutskaya
Sasha Cohen
Carolina Costner
Michelle Kwan
Shizuka Arakawa
Fumie Suguri
Julia Sebestyen
Joannie Rochette
Susanna Poykio
Miki Ando
3rd Place USA Lady

I think all these ladies have a crack at gold considering the slipperyness of the Sport. But eliminate those whom you think have no chance.

Joe

[Skate Sandee]

I think what you are saying is that the Olys is a competition which has nothing to do with a skater's previous wins. I should hope so but it does concentrate on the top six in last years' Worlds. JMO.

In the Ladies event, which ones would you eliminate for consideration to WINNING the 2006 Olympic Games?:

Irina Slutskaya
Sasha Cohen
Carolina Costner
Michelle Kwan
Shizuka Arakawa
Fumie Suguri
Julia Sebestyen
Joannie Rochette
Susanna Poykio
Miki Ando
3rd Place USA Lady

I think all these ladies have a crack at gold considering the slipperyness of the Sport. But eliminate those whom you think have no chance.

Joe

OK - I'll bite. I can buy the top five on your list as real possibilities for winning. Here's who I'd eliminate as consideration for winning the OGM:

Fumie Suguri - hasn't risen to the top spot yet, have yet to see her truly get fired up and put it all on the line. She doesn't have the elusive "x" factor to put her over the top.

Julia Sebestyen - I can't imagine any scenario that would have her winning. Nothing truly outstanding about her elements that would put her on top IMHO.

Joannie Rochette - long shot. I really think great champions are pushed by their fellow countrymen. So with a weak ladies program in Canada, I think the pressure of the games will do her in.

Susanna Poykio - This is probably unfair, but I can't remember her at all.

Miki Ando - Personal opinion only - she's backsliding, not progressing.

3rd Place USA Lady - No. This isn't a Sarah Hughes situation where we have a 3rd place lady that has been consistently rising through the ranks. Kirk won't do it, and any of the others are such a long shot as to be incalcuable.

[attyfan]

I think what you are saying is that the Olys is a competition which has nothing to do with a skater's previous wins. I should hope so but it does concentrate on the top six in last years' Worlds. JMO. ... Joe

Actually, I think that prior performance counts less at Worlds than at Olys -- Chen Lu going from second in '96 to 27th in '97, or Shizuka going from 8th in '03 to 1st in '04, down to 9th in '05 are only some examples showing that having a World title doesn't guarantee anything.

I agree that Olys concentrates on the top six, but that is a far cry from being able to predict the next OGM based on Worlds. This is especially true with the CoP being used at Olys for the first time. After all, who would have predicted that Kwan would beat the GP-experienced Ando, Arakawa, and Rochette -- all of whom were considered to have more CoP-friendly programs than Kwan did. However, I think it highly unlikely that the OGM will go to any skater who has never stood on the world podium before -- but stranger things have happened.

[nicole_l]

I agree with Skate Sandee with one exception:
Susanna Poykio isn't getting the international recognition she deserves. Even if she did, however, I can't see her any higher than fourth-- Michelle, Irina, Sasha all have a distinctive edge over her so that a mediocre performance by any of them would beat a good performance by Susanna.

[slutskayafan21]

Chen Lu was never the reigning World Champ going into an Olys; she won in '95, and took silver in '96. Being reigning World Champ does not always help at the next year's Worlds -- think of Shizuka this year. Reigning World Champ also lost Olys in 1984, where reigning 1983 World champ Roz Summers lost to reigning Worlds fourth place holder Katerina Witt, and in 2002, where reigning World bronze medalist Hughes beat reigning World chanp Kwan.

Sumners managed to almost beat Witt for the gold, she lost by one judge, despite two major errors at the end of the program(back then singling a double axel was a major error, given the jump content of the women). I would say being World Champ probably made that closer than it would have been for the same skate. Kwan vs Hughes would never have happened had Hughes not skated out of her mind and Kwan and others faltering badly.

[slutskayafan21]

Irina skated next-to-last at 2001 Worlds, after Michelle. Michelle had a squeaky-clean performance and that probably rattled Irina enough that she missed on her 3Z3L and only did a double. She had another rough moment and must have felt that she needed more to win, so she started ad-libbing--unsuccessfully.

Irina lost on a 7-2 decision, but to this day she believes she was robbed.

Well she already did a triple sal-triple loop-double loop, harder than a
triple toe-triple toe, and would have come in at 7 triples like Kwan. I dont think she needed both triple-triple combos to win. She does not need to do multiple much harder jumps to win the techinical mark over Kwan, and she could lose slightly on the artistic and still win. She should have just left well enough alone IMO, and she is wrong if she thinks she should have won, she cooked her own goose.

I dont recall her having any actual 'mistakes' in her performance before starting her ab-libbing. You seem to remember the event better than me so I may be mistaken. If she did have even one, that changes it all completely and I understand her trying to throw something else in then. Just my opinion.

[Joesitz]

I agree that Olys concentrates on the top six, but that is a far cry from being able to predict the next OGM based on Worlds. This is especially true with the CoP being used at Olys for the first time. However, I think it highly unlikely that the OGM will go to any skater who has never stood on the world podium before -- but stranger things have happened.

I totally agree. That is why I listed the top six at this point in time (may change when we see the GPs) plus the the most talked about skaters from last season.

Joe

[Vash01]

Well she already did a triple sal-triple loop-double loop, harder than a
triple toe-triple toe, and would have come in at 7 triples like Kwan. I dont think she needed both triple-triple combos to win. She does not need to do multiple much harder jumps to win the techinical mark over Kwan, and she could lose slightly on the artistic and still win. She should have just left well enough alone IMO, and she is wrong if she thinks she should have won, she cooked her own goose.

I dont recall her having any actual 'mistakes' in her performance before starting her ab-libbing. You seem to remember the event better than me so I may be mistaken. If she did have even one, that changes it all completely and I understand her trying to throw something else in then. Just my opinion.

I was present at that competition. Irina skated well overall, but she did not do a 3sal-3loop-2loop. She stepped out of the second jump, then added a 2 loop, IIRC. I will have to watch the tape again. Michelle skated great and Irina must have felt the need to throw in more jumps to outscore her, but that strategy did not work. Under the COP she might have scored better, but under the 6.0 system the right lady won.

Vash

[Vash01]

I think Team USA--for Cohen as well as Kwan--needs to put out some public criticism of the current judging under the COP that rewards things like repeated Bielmanns (including a Bielmann "spiral" that apparently subsitutes for the inablility to do a free-leg spiral), and does not penalize things like ungainly (Bielmann) positions, spins that travel and flutzes. In sports like professional basketball there is a continual "war of words" during the play-offs and championship series to point out problems with the referee-ing in an effort to keep the refs "honest." First, the COP system needs to be tweaked so it's not the Code of Bielmanns. Second, the judges need to be held accountable in the press and in the TV commentary for their mistakes. Even thought we don't know who scored what, the individual judges' scores are posted. These individual scores need to be scrutinized and publicly criticized where necessary (as where a skater flutzes but is not penalized).

Why should Cohen complain? The judges are not penalizing her for flutzes, or a spiral that came down because she could not control it? She did not receive a single negative GOE for those mistakes. I don't see why Kwan should complain if she never bothered to study the new rules of the game. Irina was perfectly within rules in doing as many Biellmans as she wanted. It is not a pretty position but it is very difficult, particularly when it comes to changing the edge. She was rightly rewarded for what she did well. If you stop thinking as if you are still using the 6.0 system and apply the new rules, the results are correct. If the rules are changed in a way that would make it impossible for Irina to use the Biellman position on her spirals, so be it. This year she used the COP correctly and was rewarded for it. If others did not do their homework, you cannot put the blame on her. Cohen in particular has no right to complain because she was already overmarked. I thought Michelle's component scores seemed low, but again you have to go to the rule book and find out why she got those low scores.

Vash

[Joesitz]

Why should Cohen complain? The judges are not penalizing her for flutzes, or a spiral that came down because she could not control it? She did not receive a single negative GOE for those mistakes. I don't see why Kwan should complain if she never bothered to study the new rules of the game. Irina was perfectly within rules in doing as many Biellmans as she wanted. It is not a pretty position but it is very difficult, particularly when it comes to changing the edge. She was rightly rewarded for what she did well. If you stop thinking as if you are still using the 6.0 system and apply the new rules, the results are correct. If the rules are changed in a way that would make it impossible for Irina to use the Biellman position on her spirals, so be it. This year she used the COP correctly and was rewarded for it. If others did not do their homework, you cannot put the blame on her. Cohen in particular has no right to complain because she was already overmarked. I thought Michelle's component scores seemed low, but again you have to go to the rule book and find out why she got those low scores.Vash

I absolutely agree Vash. Big tricks get big points. That's the way it is, and the Bielmans deserve their Goe scores.

However, esthetically, I would prefer a beautiful figure skating spiral as one sees in ballet to an acrobatic figure skating Bielman as one sees in Cirque du Soleil. I'm just one of those esthetically nutted viewers.

Joe

[brad640]

Irina was perfectly within rules in doing as many Biellmans as she wanted. It is not a pretty position but it is very difficult, particularly when it comes to changing the edge. She was rightly rewarded for what she did well.
...
Cohen in particular has no right to complain because she was already overmarked.

How is it that Irina was rightly rewarded, but Sasha was overmarked? Sasha earned her points under CoP fair and square. Deductions were taken for Sasha's mistake at the end of her SP spiral, but she also got positive GOE for the good quality of the positions in the first part of the sequence, so the positive outweighed the negative.

The suspect judging in Irina's case was not on the credit she received for her Biellmans, but for the overcompensation the judges did to keep her in first after a terrible SP. Irina received some deductions for her the poor landing and turn between the jumps on her jump combination and her out of control combination spin, but the judges fabricated her PCS to make up for the deduction. Yes, she had a great LP, but it was a big boost to her confidence knowing the judges would keep her in first no matter what happened, and it was discouraging to other athletes to know that Irina had the judges in her pocket all season regardless of errors.

[mzheng]

I was present at that competition. Irina skated well overall, but she did not do a 3sal-3loop-2loop. She stepped out of the second jump, then added a 2 loop, IIRC. I will have to watch the tape again.
Vash

I think you are right on this. I don't recall Irina did CLEAN 3/3/2 in that competetion. The last 2loop looked like a 'throw in' at an after thought. That's why Peggy said it looked 'sloppy'. I don't necessary agree with Peggy at the time though. But Irina did not has the refiness as MK. Up untill this day her skating still lack of the refiness as Sasha, Arakawa and Michelle has. But what she has this season, was all the enthusize, excitement, powerful jumps and of cource the Bielmmans.

I don't necessary agree Irina perfectly use the CoP in a sense of choreography. Bielmman spin every where got her big trick marks, if rule says so, then so be it. But I believe rules also stated the variaty well balanced choregoraphy, the finess of postion to get higher GOE, I don't think judge applied rules in those areas correctly. Her PCS score and some of her GOE were exagerated....If anything I'd say she's taken advantage of CoP to the point abusing it by overly useing Bielmman just like Zayak overly used her triple toes. I suspect we'll see new Bielmman rule in no time.

[slutskayafan21]

I think Team USA--for Cohen as well as Kwan--needs to put out some public criticism of the current judging under the COP that rewards things like repeated Bielmanns (including a Bielmann "spiral" that apparently subsitutes for the inablility to do a free-leg spiral), and does not penalize things like ungainly (Bielmann) positions, spins that travel and flutzes. In sports like professional basketball there is a continual "war of words" during the play-offs and championship series to point out problems with the referee-ing in an effort to keep the refs "honest." First, the COP system needs to be tweaked so it's not the Code of Bielmanns. Second, the judges need to be held accountable in the press and in the TV commentary for their mistakes. Even thought we don't know who scored what, the individual judges' scores are posted. These individual scores need to be scrutinized and publicly criticized where necessary (as where a skater flutzes but is not penalized).

Cohen and Kwan complaining about flutzes not being penalized under the COP?
What a load of rubbish, I almost fell out of my chair laughing at your reasoning with Cohen putting in a complaint including a flutz complaint. Cohen should be jumping up and down with joy then dont penalize the flutz, she has by far the worst flutz of all the top women, ten times worse than the woman you appear to be referring to. Kwan even has a less pure lutz than the woman you are obviously trying to take a dig at.