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Thread: 2005 Preakness

  1. #1
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    2005 Preakness

    Confirmed so far for the Preakness: Giacomo, Afleet Alex, Greeley's Galaxy, High Limit (from the Derby); Hal's Image, Scrappy T and Malibu Moonshine. Also expected to run: Galloping Grocer.

    Other possible starters from the Derby: Wilko, Closing Argument.

    This year, it's likely that all 14 post positions will be filled, which hasn't happened since 1992. The top seven starters are determined by graded earnings, the next four by earnings minus restricted races, and the final three spots in order of overall earnings.

    It's not unusual for a few local horses to compete in the Preakness, and occasionally one of them hits the board.
    Last edited by chuckm; 05-13-2005 at 11:25 AM.

  2. #2
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Hi Chuck...

    When does the Preakness run? I don't want to miss it on TV.

    And of course when the day draws near, we'd love to know your picks.

    DG

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    The Preakness is this coming Saturday, May 21st. It will be on NBC at 5pm (EDT). The top 3 from the Derby will be among my picks (Giacomo, Afleet Alex, Closing Argument) but I'd have to see the past performances, especially those of the new players, before saying anything else.

    I think AA will be the favorite, and Giacomo will be anywhere from 4-1 to 7-1. Bobby Frankel is planning to ship High Limit (last in the Derby), and he said this time he will go for the lead. Again, I'd have to see the past performances to see if there are any other front-runners, but I'm hoping for a bit of a speed duel up front (better for Giacomo).
    Last edited by chuckm; 05-16-2005 at 10:50 AM.

  4. #4
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I think the increase in the number of runners is due to Giacomo's win at the Derby. Lots of horses want to take this one!

    Isn't the Preakness the track with the crazy turn at the top of the oval?

    BTW - Why am I thinking this will be on ESPN? Is NBC definitely showing it?

    Joe

  5. #5
    bugs are smarter than we are bronxgirl's Avatar
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    NBC is showing it (or at least that is what my edition of TV Guide claims . It has been known to be wrong).

    I cannot picture Giacomo winning the Preakness let alone the Triple Crown. He just out staggered the first group of burned out horses home in the race of his young life. (Then again, I thought Smarty Jones would win the Triple Crown, so don't place your bets based on my recommendations )

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    bronxgirl: "I cannot picture Giacomo winning the Preakness let alone the Triple Crown."

    That's exactly what people (including myself) said when Charismatic, a hard-knocking ex-claimer, won the Kentucky Derby. But he did go on to win the Preakness, and almost won the Triple Crown (he suffered an injury during the stretch run of the race and faded to 3rd).

    It's entirely possible that Giacomo hasn't peaked yet. The fact is ALL the highly-touted Derby prep stakes winners faded in the stretch, even the ones who didn't attend the hot pace, so it may be they had already had their top performance.

  7. #7
    Custom Title Johar's Avatar
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    I would like to see Giacomo win so there is a chance for a Triple Crown. Well, one can only dream.

    Afleet Alex is working sharply.

    BTW--some very sad news: Housebuster has passed away in Virginia. No cause listed. Somebody called the farm to confirm it. She didn't ask and they didn't offer. Farrms can be very private about listing causes of death.

    I sure will miss him.

  8. #8
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    The PREAKNESS lineup:

    POST HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY
    1-Malibu Moonshine (20-1), King Leatherbury, Steve Hamilton
    2-High Fly (9-2), Nick Zito, Jerry Bailey
    3-Noble Causeway (10-1), Nick Zito, Gary Stevens
    4-Greeley's Galaxy (15-1), Warren Stute. David Flores
    5-Scrappy T(20-1), Robert Bailes, Ramon Dominguez
    6-Hal's Image (50-1), Barry Rose, Jose Santos
    7-Closing Argument (5-1), Kiaran McLaughlin, Cornelio Velasquez
    8-Galloping Grocer (30-1), Dominick Schettino, Joe Bravo
    9-Wilko (10-1), Craig Dollase, Corey Nakatani
    10-Sun King (15-1), Nick Zito, Rafael Bejarano
    11-High Limit (12-1), Bobby Frankel, Edgar Prado
    12-Afleet Alex (5-2), Tim Ritchey, Jeremy Rose
    13-Giacomo (6-1), John Shirreffs, Mike Smith
    14-Going Wild (30-1), D. Wayne Lukas, Robby Albarado

    Comments:
    Forget about the new faces Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T, Hal’s Image and Galloping Grocer. Scrappy T has speed and some class, but he is a frontrunner who hasn’t won beyond 8.5 furlongs. Galloping Grocer had some success at 2, but his last win was as a 2YO in a minor statebred one mile stake and he couldn’t even beat statebreds in his last race. Malibu and Hal’s Image have neither speed nor class. You could make a case for Scrappy T in a trifecta, but I don't see him as a potential winner.

    Going Wild and Sun King both seem to have regressed drastically and I don’t see any improvement in the cards.

    High Limit is going to go to the front and try to win gate to wire, but I doubt he can sustain his speed for the entire 9.5 furlongs. His last win was the 8.5 furlong Louisiana Derby and he finished 6 lengths behind Bandini in the 9-furlong Blue Grass. There are several other speed horses in here (Sun King, Hal’s Image, Scrappy T, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly) and there will be a fairly hot pace up front.

    Of the speedsters, Greeley’s Galaxy and High Fly, who have won at 9 furlongs, are most likely to survive the pace into the stretch. Greeley’s Galaxy got off to a bad start in the Derby and was never in contention, so he may be somewhat fresher than High Fly, who closely attended the Derby pace and was fried in the stretch. However, GG really had no real competition in his Illinois Derby win, and he didn’t beat much in terms of class. He is bettable, though. GG had a terrific workout yesterday, which can be looked at as either a positive or negative.

    The deep stalkers and closers can at least look forward to decent speed up front to run at in the stretch.

    Noble Causeway never got into gear until the stretch, but quickly faded. He has won at 9 furlongs, but that was in an allowance race. I am not sure he has the experience or the guts to beat the top horses in here, but he wasn’t as ‘used up’ as some of the other Derby horses so he may still have some chance.

    Closing Argument ran a terrific race in the Derby, and almost won, even though he was very close to the pace, right behind Bellamy Road. What is somewhat disturbing is that his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, made a comment to a reporter about how he was disappointed that CA didn’t win the Derby, because he is so much better when fresh. Some handicappers have taken that to mean that CA won’t be as good after only two weeks’ rest. I still think he is a contender.

    Wilko has 3 wins for 15 starts, and hasn’t won this year yet. He did gain some in the Derby, but was knocked about a fair amount (he is a very small horse). He did finish ahead of 6 of the other Derby competitors in this race, so you can’t blame those who think he’s still worth a bet.

    Afleet Alex is a tough competitor, and the most accomplished horse in this field. He is 6 for 10 lifetime, and finished off the board just once, when he was discovered to have a lung infection. He always tries his utmost, and that is the one thing that may hurt him here. He put forth tremendous effort in the Derby to finish 3rd, and it seems as if 9 furlongs is his distance limit. If he were a fresh horse, I think he could go ½ furlong more---but he is not a fresh horse. I really like this guy, and won’t leave him out, but I am not sure he can win this one.

    Giacomo has gotten no respect from the handicappers, who dismiss his Derby win as a fluke, saying all he did was pass tired horses. That is not quite true, because Giacomo had to go 8 and 10 wide at times, weaving his way between horses, and may have traveled a longer distance than any other horse in the race. He emerged from the Derby in great shape. I think this horse is just beginning to peak, and on that basis I would not think of leaving him out of my bets. And I, too would like to see him go into the Belmont as a Triple Crown contender.

  9. #9
    Custom Title Johar's Avatar
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    See ya in the winner's circle, Afleet Alex!

    1 Malibu Moonshine-- has speed figures 10-20 lengths behind this field. Local favorite.
    2005 4(3-0-0)
    life 10 (6-0-0)
    speed figure 80.1

    2. High Fly-- is very game. Do not count him out!
    2005 5 (3-0-1)
    life 7 (5-0-1)
    speed figure 88.2

    3. Noble Causeway-- has never won a Stakes race. terrible trip in Derby. Can make up ground but not 1st.
    2005 5(2-2-0)
    life 7 (2-3-0)
    speed figure 84.2

    4. Greely Galaxy --is very game, with a bad trip in Derby.
    2005 5(3-0-0)
    life 5(3-0-0)
    speed figure 81.8

    5. Scrappy T --never finishes out of the money but won't win. May finish in the money. Will be part of early pace. Distance may be a tad too far for him to win but use in exotics.
    2005 4(2-0-2)
    life 9(3-4-2)
    speed figure 83.8

    6. Hal's Image
    2005 5(1-1-1)
    life 16(2-2-2)
    speed figure 77.1

    7. Closing Argument-- was the only horse close to the pace in the Derby who didn't collapse to his knees in the stretch. If I remember correctly, he was usually 1-3 lengths off of Spanish Chestnut the entire way. Could take this or easily hit the board.
    2005 3(1-1-1)
    life 8(3-3-2)
    speed figure 84.0

    8. Galloping Grocer--regressing in form, no game. Better at age 2.
    2005 3(1-1-1)
    life 8(3-2-1)
    speed figure: 82.8

    9. Wilko-- just doesn't win enough to be considered a contender for a win.
    2005 3(0-0-1)
    life 15(3-2-6)
    speed figure 84.0

    10. Sun King- regressing in form. Hasn't won since Tampa Bay Derby.
    2005 4(2-0-0)
    life 8(3-0-2)
    speed figure: 81.8

    11. High Limit can't win unless he goes wire-to-wire, which likely won't happen today.
    2005 3(1-1-0)
    life 5(3-1-0)
    speed figue 78.7

    12. Afleet Alex--is very game and consistent. Distance good for him.
    2005 4(2-0-1)
    life 10(6-2-1)
    speed figure 85.9

    13. Giacomo is probably a one-hit wonder horsewho passed tiring horses in the Derby who didn't fire.
    2005 4(1-1-1)
    life 8(2-2-2)
    speed figure 84.2

    14. Going Wild: has no business at all being there! 18th in Derby, 5th in Lexington and 7th in Wood Memorial. Baten by total of 90 lengths in last three starts
    2005 6(2-1-0)
    life 10 (3-3-3)
    speed figure 73.2
    Last edited by Johar; 05-21-2005 at 03:12 PM.

  10. #10
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    Giacomo placed in the money. Not bad for someone who was not supposed to win anything.

    Joe

  11. #11
    Custom Title Johar's Avatar
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    OMG! did you see Afleet Alex stumble and go to his knees, then come back and win!? He's a true fighter!

    Woo-hoo! My pick won!

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    If Giacomo was not to win the Triple Crown, then I was glad that Afleet Alex won the Preakness. He is a terrific little horse and ran a great race. He was able to overcome the stumble because he has a winning spirit and the experience to go with it. Giacomo didn't disgrace himself, either. He managed to finish in the money despite being bumped soundly on both sides in deep stretch, and proved that he is NO FLUKE.

    Here is the order of finish:
    1. Afleet Alex
    2. Scrappy T
    3. Giacomo
    4. Sun King
    5. High Limit
    6. Noble Causeway
    7. Greeley's Galaxy
    8. Malibu Moonshine
    9. Closing Argument
    10. High Fly
    11. Hal's Image
    12. Wilko
    13. Galloping Grocer
    14. Going Wild

    Going Wild finished dead last. Shame on D. Wayne Lukas for putting him in this race to satisfy his own ego. How can a horse who has finished now some cumulative 110 lengths behind in his last 4 races be expected to perform well?

    I wonder how many of these horses will go on to the Belmont. I would expect Afleet Alex and Giacomo to go on, and maybe Scrappy T, but the others seemed exhausted. It was obvious that Closing Argument, Wilko and High Fly were far too tired from their Derby efforts to fire this time. Sun King and High Limit finished respectable 4th and 5th, much better than their Derby performances, but neither was able to sustain speed through the stretch. Greeley's Galaxy gave up early, and Noble Causeway never made much headway.

    There was in interesting article in the NY Times today about the fact that this Triple Crown crop was the one devastated by the Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome in Kentucky back in 2001. More than 2500 foals were lost due to spontaneous abortion, stillbirth and foal death. The colts we are seeing are the ones who survived. Maybe their speed figures don't measure up to the Smarty Joneses, Funny Cides and War Emblems, or other Triple Crown races of the past, but they are the best of a blighted generation.

  13. #13
    bugs are smarter than we are bronxgirl's Avatar
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    I was amazed and gratified that both horses and riders were uninjured in that near fall by Afleet Alex. Who says jockeys aren't gifted athletes?

  14. #14
    Custom Title Johar's Avatar
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    Sun King didn't disgrace himself, either. I hope he stays sound and healthy to run as an older horse next year.

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    The Belmont Stakes

    I'm going with Giacomo. If you look at the results, Giacomo was gaining all along. Problem in Preakness was he started to move up too late. The Belmont, as you know, is a longer race. I think the extra length will be in Giacomo's favor.

    Will be a good race, anyway.

    Joe

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