Who's Got the Points for Gold? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who's Got the Points for Gold?

mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
MKbeauty said:
Just wanted to add my two cents with regard to PCS scores and "leaving out" jumps. The whole basis of the NJS is to garner as many points as possible. If a skater doesn't have a 3/3, they must figure out a way to maximize their points by following the rules and using the stated ISU criteria. If they must leave out a jump in order to accomplish this, wouldn't it be a little harsh for the judges to turn around and deduct PCS points for this (especially if the two jumps they are repeating are two of the hardest triples - the flip and lutz)?

If that be the case, then the judges should also deduct PCS points from skaters who don't show variety in their other elements as well (i.e., using the biellman position in every spin and spiral).

JMHO. :)
Exactly!

In a idear situation I'd like to see variety in Jumps as well as other elements.

However I don't agree simply punish those skater leave out one type of jump in their program or reward those planned 5 diff jumps. Remember a planed jump does not equal a landed jump. If a skater planned a 6/7 triple program with all different 5 triples but she only landed 4 type of them. It is just like plan a 6 triple land all of them include 4 diff type of them. One might argue that if you leave out one type means you can't do it, or judge can watch practice to see who has what type jumps. But remember you all are talking about the judging by the performance of that night. If you don't landed it, than you don't landed. No matter what planned in your program.....The reward of variaty on jumps (either go with PCS score or set aside 1 or 2 bonus point on top of the total score) should only reward to those who COMPLETE all 5 different type jumps. Or even better, bonus point to skaters who complete all his/her planned jumps (high risk elements). The deduction or lower PCS scores (especially the choreography) should give to those skaters repeat the same positions or lack of variety in their movements on ice.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Joesitz said:
Can Jeffrey catch Stephane?
Well, this is not nearly as clear cut as Irina versus Sasha.

Stephane scored 144.18 points in his free skate, versus 136.30 for Buttle. But they both made so many mistakes that the only lesson to be learned is, try to land your jumps.

The eight jumping passes (base values): Lambiel 45.5, Buttle 50.5.

So Buttle actually outpointed Lambiel on jumps even though Lambiel did two clean quads and Buttle fell twice!

The reason Lambiel's jump values were so low was because he singled his opening triple Axel attempt (he got 0.8 base value for a single Axel. But one judge gave him a +1 GOE. It must have been an outstanding single Axel.)

Also he doubled his second triple Axel attempt, doubled his Lutz combo and singled his flip, giving away a ton of points.

Looking at these numbers, I have to agree with Mr. Cinquanta -- Plushenko could have come out in his pajamas and won.

Buttle, on the other hand, used four of his allowed jumping passes on Axel jumps -- he fell on his first triple Axel, on his second he got credit for a phantom combo even though he didn't do a second jump, and then at the end he did two double Axels in a row -- I don't know what he intended there. He also fell on his triple loop.

So the jumps were pretty much a bust for both skaters.

The six spins/step elements: Lambiel 14.6, Buttle, 14.5.

Almost a dead heat there, despite Lambiel's reputation as a big spinner. In any case, with only 15 points available for spins/steps and 50+ points available for jumps, it's pretty clear that you can't spin your way onto the podium if you fall on your jumps.

GOE: Lambiel 7.22, Buttle -1.58.

Well, this is the a swing of 8.80. Overall, Lambiel's margin of victory was 7.88. So we don't have to go any farther. Jeff had -3 GOE for each of his two falls, and also took a -2 fall deduction.

Jeff stays on his feet, he wins the free skate handily.

Component scores: Lambiel, 76.86, Buttle 74.88

This is interesting. Although the judges gave Lambiel consistently higher marks (mostly 7.75s to Buttle's 7.50s), after averaging and factoring this translated into only a two-point advantage for Lambiel. Lambiel could have gained more points that this by merely doubling his opening Axel instead of singling it.

So, bottom line, at least in this contest, the only thing that counts is landing your jumps.

It does not appear, in the case of the men at least, that the judges can manipulate the results very much by fiddling with the component scores.

**********************************

It was interesting to me to do that analysis. Looking at the CoP numbers, both skaters stunk. But watching the actual performances, they were both great. I don't know what the moral is for skaters preparing for the Olympics.

***************************************
Joe said:
Can Michelle get a medal?
Going by the numbers from Worlds, Michelle does not have to do anything new to get a medal. She was third in both the short program and the long, without really doing much of anything.

Mathman :)
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
I think what we have at this point in time are two close races:

Irina v. Sasha and Stephane v. Buttle.

I would say - at this point in time - Carolina, Michelle, Evan and Johnny have a lot of catching up to do. The only way they can catch leader is to be sure they can pass the No.2 skater also who may take the lead. We now have something to go on when the GPs are in full swing.

As for Michelle - well, I'm not banking on the cheesefests to redeem her. No GPs, no Oly medal. JMO.

Joe
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
MKbeauty said:
Great discussion - thanks for all the information.

Just wanted to add my two cents with regard to PCS scores and "leaving out" jumps. The whole basis of the NJS is to garner as many points as possible. If a skater doesn't have a 3/3, they must figure out a way to maximize their points by following the rules and using the stated ISU criteria. If they must leave out a jump in order to accomplish this, wouldn't it be a little harsh for the judges to turn around and deduct PCS points for this (especially if the two jumps they are repeating are two of the hardest triples - the flip and lutz)?

If that be the case, then the judges should also deduct PCS points from skaters who don't show variety in their other elements as well (i.e., using the biellman position in every spin and spiral).

JMHO. :)

I wasn't talking about deductions. By the very nature of how PCS works, I don't think deductions exist. I'm simply suggesting that if I were a judge (which clearly I'm not), all other things being equal (which they are generally not) I would reward variety. And to your point - I would like to see variety of different positions rather than over-use of any one such as the Biellmann.

DG
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
Joesitz said:
I think what we have at this point in time are two close races:

Irina v. Sasha and Stephane v. Buttle.

I would say - at this point in time - Carolina, Michelle, Evan and Johnny have a lot of catching up to do. The only way they can catch leader is to be sure they can pass the No.2 skater also who may take the lead. We now have something to go on when the GPs are in full swing.

As for Michelle - well, I'm not banking on the cheesefests to redeem her. No GPs, no Oly medal. JMO.

Joe

ITA Joe. In addition to verifying the program scores under COP in front of actual judges, I think MK is a bit "rusty" on international ice. For her, taking the ice at home in front of hoardes of screaming fans has got to feel quite a bit different than taking the ice on more neutral territory. MK seems to feed off of the atmosphere in the arena. I would imagine (and you would know, so please share your thoughts and correct me if you don't think this is a factor) it's different outside of NA.

DG
 

MKbeauty

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 22, 2004
Re: NJS

Mathman said:
Going by the numbers from Worlds, Michelle does not have to do anything new to get a medal. She was third in both the short program and the long, without really doing much of anything.
Good point, Mathman. :laugh:

I guess it's nice to have an idea of what score it will take to win a competition under the NJS; however, I still think next season is a whole new ballgame, and certainly not just a competition between the top two finishers from Worlds. Last summer, everyone was saying the Japanese women were unbeatable. Will Irina be able to keep her momentum going? Sure, her LP points from Worlds were impressive. Her scores from the GP, however, weren't nearly as high:

COC = 114.84
COR = 121.90
GPF = 115.42
Euros = 103.69
Worlds = 130.10

I think it's going to be a VERY interesting season.

P.S. And, yes, I do agree that MK should skate the GP if she's healthy, not only to get the feel of international ice, but to get back into the competition mindset.
 
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mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
But what if she choses or forced to do something this season?

ETA,
MKbeauty your list of GP event scores reminds that to me it was obviously Michelle was not well prepared for CoP last season. Not only she sitting out the whole GP. But she only studied taped 4CC and European competetion. IMO, obviously she tweaked her LP according to the top scores posted on these two competetions. Which obviously was not good enough. She should've studied CoC and CoR as well to see the top scores from those competetions.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Thanks for the numbers, MKBeauty. I agree, this gives us a clearer perspective.
mzheng said:
(Michelle) should've studied CoC and CoR as well to see the top scores from those competetions.
That is an interesting comparison. Michelle scored 113.98 in her one foray into CoP judging, even with a fall on her Salcow. This puts her within one point of Irina's total at Cup of China and within two points of Irina's GP Finals score.

Cup of China will be huge this year, with Michelle, Irina and Shizuka facing off. Wouldn't it be cool if Mao Asada won? She scored 119.13 points at Junior Worlds.

MM
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
Mathman said:
Thanks for the numbers, MKBeauty. I agree, this gives us a clearer perspective.That is an interesting comparison. Michelle scored 113.98 in her one foray into CoP judging, even with a fall on her Salcow. This puts her within one point of Irina's total at Cup of China and within two points of Irina's GP Finals score.

Cup of China will be huge this year, with Michelle, Irina and Shizuka facing off. Wouldn't it be cool if Mao Asada won? She scored 119.13 points at Junior Worlds.

MM

For anyone who has yet to see Mao, you can download her Jr. World's LP here:

http://www.cruelladekwan.com/otherskaters/asada.htm

Her presentation is still juniorish (to be expected) in comparison to the top Sr. Ladies, but she packs on the technical content. She's got the jumping ability that we have come to expect from our Junior Jumpers (and she actually missed a combo, but completed a 3A), but got all level 2 and up on her non-jump elements. She should be an exciting addition to the mix next season!

DG
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
MKbeauty said:
I guess it's nice to have an idea of what score it will take to win a competition under the NJS; however, I still think next season is a whole new ballgame, and certainly not just a competition between the top two finishers from Worlds. Last summer, everyone was saying the Japanese women were unbeatable. Will Irina be able to keep her momentum going? Sure, her LP points from Worlds were impressive. Her scores from the GP, however, weren't nearly as high:

COC = 114.84
COR = 121.90
GPF = 115.42
Euros = 103.69
Worlds = 130.10

I think it's going to be a VERY interesting season.

ATTAgirl MK beauty - With stats like this, this is what we need to ponder over. It's not unlike stats in other sports especially baseball. If you take the mean of those stats it could mean something.

Joe
 

CDMM1991

Medalist
Joined
Jun 3, 2005
Joesitz said:
ATTAgirl MK beauty - With stats like this, this is what we need to ponder over. It's not unlike stats in other sports especially baseball. If you take the mean of those stats it could mean something.

Joe

ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.
 

janetb

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 19, 2005
CDMM1991 said:
ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.


Why, she skated good programs in COC and COR, decent programs at the GPF and Had a great short but not so good free program at EUR. And then blew the house down with her long program at Worlds so why should there be any speculation about a predetermined result
 

hockeyfan228

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
According to the written code, she had a flawed skate in her Euros SP. She also had a flawed skate in her quali round and SP at Worlds. It isn't even so much her placement at the end of these programs, but the difficult to surmount point totals.
 
Joined
Aug 3, 2003
Thanks, Gkelly

gkelly
06-29-2005
Post #4
Rgirl said:
Mathman,
Kostner really is the inconsistency queen. I don't know her highest finish at Worlds off hand, but she's never been on or close to being one he podium,
Gkelly said:
Um, she was on the podium (bronze medal) in 2005.

And fifth in 2004, which is "close to being on the podium."
Oooooooh! That was a bad one! I mean to forget Carolina won the bronze at this year's Worlds is a boo-boo for the ages, not to mention 5th place in '04.:banging: Thanks reminding me that I can never rely on my memory for placements--and as I before, I really like Kostner!

My apologies. Though I'm still concerned about CK's consistency, now that I have her CORRECT World placements to go by :eek: hasn't one or more people mentioned that Carolina has the same Worlds placements prior to the Olympics as Sarah? Sarah had the advantage of "cat landings" (if Sarah ever fell in her Senior career, I never saw it), which CK doesn't. However, CK is moving in a coach's dream of a direction: Improves each year to peak by Worlds even if she's had problems during GPS/F and Euros. So her training periodization--big word for training direction--is excellent.

One more thing, even though this thread is about who has the points to win the Olympic GOLD, I admit I broke the rules in my post and was thinking about which ladies skaters had the best chances to get on the podium and where. On paper, the odds are with Irina, Gold; Sasha, Silver, and Kostner, Bronze.

But in '02, Sarah had a similar, if not the same Worlds record to Kostner. Michelle had dominated Worlds except for '99 when she was sick and Butryskaya had the skate of her life--good for her, BTW, to do so at 26. On the men's side, '02 went by the odds, except for Geobel's surprise bronze. But in '98, Kulik finished 5th in '97; 2nd in '96; and though he won '95 Euros and Jr. Worlds, I couldn't find, despite looking (learned my lesson, which I'll probbly have to learn again) where he placed at the '95 Sr. Worlds, but IIRC he finished low, maybe 10th, maybe lower. The point is, it's fun to look at a skater's background and try to predict his/her placements in the Olympics, but in the end, it is just fun--unless you're doing serious business in Vegas or Atlantic City.

But even so, one should get her facts straight, RGIRL! Which is why I should have never broken my sabbatical "one last time." :banging:

Ta,
R

P.S. Maybe somebody should start a new thread about whether Irina's win at Worlds was predetermined. As a partial subject that can be tied to the Olympics, I'm all for it. But as a complete and separate subject, IMO, too Off-Topic.
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
Rgirl said:
P.S. Maybe somebody should start a new thread about whether Irina's win at Worlds was predetermined.

LOL RGirl, but PLEASE NO!! Ten more threads about how Irina is always held up would KILL me!!! Please!! No murders on GS, OK???

:p ;)

DG
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
We know some skaters have inconsistencies; we know some presumed inconsistent skaters have great days, too.

I've said enough about the ladies, that is why I am interested in going to the points. If one takes the trouble and it will be trouble to gather up the points from different competitions and compare them with the forthcoming GPs, I believe a different preview of the Olys will emerge.

Everything at this point in time can and probably will change by the GPF. I just think it is another system of prejudging than nitpicking certain poor traits of any skater.

Hanky panky by the judges, is of course, another topic.

Joe
 

Excidra2001

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
CDMM1991 said:
ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.

With COP, how is that possible? She received what she put out there. I guess the notion, Michelle is slow, Irina will be held up, and Sasha will never win a major competition, will be around for a long time.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Rgirl said:
Though I'm still concerned about (Carolina Kostner's) consistency, now that I have her correct World placements to go by, hasn't one or more people mentioned that Carolina has the same Worlds placements prior to the Olympics as Sarah?
Joe said:
If one takes the trouble and it will be trouble to gather up the points from different competitions and compare them with the forthcoming GPs, I believe a different preview of the Olys will emerge.
I definitely (how's that, GrGranny :) ) have mixed feelings about the predictive value of all these points. Going strictly by the numbers from last year's Grand Prix series, they would say that Carolina is a junior skater who doesn't belong on the same ice as the serious contenders, while Joannie Rochette is pretty much a lock for an Olympic medal.

Here are the points for the free skates of these two skaters, with Irina's (thanks MKBeauty) for comparison.

Carolina:

Skate Canada, 88.08
Eric Bompard, 89.78
Cup of Russia, 71.42 (10th behind Slutskaya, Sebestyen, Arakawa, Sokolova, Maniachenko, Dytrt, Timoshenko, Liu and Kirk)

Joannie:

Cup of China, 102.68
Eric Bompard, 113.08
GP Final, 101.00

Irina

Cup of China, 114.84
Cup of Russia, 121.90
GP Final, 115.42

I do have to admit, though that this coming season is the first time that I have cared much about the Grand Prix series.

Mathman
 
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