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Thread: Who's Got the Points for Gold?

  1. #16
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Yes MM. Thanks you very much. That's what I wanted. It seems like a lot of work but it relates more directly to the CoP than all the gushing one is going to see about all the Divas. The points are where it is at. And the Tech Scores, imo, influence the PCS scores heavily!!!

    Can Jeffrey catch Stephane?
    Can Michelle get a medal?
    and, of course
    will everyone be well and free of injuries.?

    Joe

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Joe, thanks for clarifying your question. Personally, I think it will take scores of about 170 for ladies and 210 for men to be competitive for the top spot.


    Mathman
    You Rock Mathman!! I totally agree with your whole post. And one of my favorite things about COP (well, NJS I guess, but HEY I'm an "old dog") is the ability to break down the technical scores in this very way.

    One additional point is how the new Bielmann rule changes might affect Irina. The new rules involve requirements that the foot be all the way over the head before any of the counting begins (revolutions for spins, seconds for spirals). I haven't gone back to any of Irina's tapes to try counting and timing to see how (or not) this rule change will affect her. (but that would be a great pre-season project if someone were to volunteer!!) It sure seems that rule was made just for her, so I suspect she will have work to do to get the same levels and points from her Bielmanns next season.

    IIRC, the introduction of level 4 seems more about introducing a new lower level, not about introducing an even higher level. It's been awhile since I've reviewed the rule changes, but IIRC generally speaking, what used to be level 3 is now level 4 in most cases. (of course, with exceptions related to "new" rules like the Beilmann rules) Maybe someone who is ahead of me in COP (oops - NJS) study can clarify that cuz I might be wrong.

    Joe - ITA that technical seems to influence PCS. And in several categories, I would agree that should be the case. As an example, I would imagine it takes much more skill to execute intricate choreography, interesting and difficult transitions, etc. while also executing a more technical difficult program in terms of jumps, spins, etc.

    I think this concept also ties into the notion of those who demonstrate skill in the full array of jumps v. "leaving out" one or more. While that shouldn't affect the TES side of the score, it probably should (IMO) affect the PCS side. It has to be more difficult to execute intricate choreography while also including the full complement of jumps, than only those jumps a particular skater is the best at (and most comfortable with). I'm sure every skater is not equally comfortable with all the various jumps. Just another random thought on the COP (oops..NJS)

    DG

  3. #18
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    OK - another point strategy...

    I know this was discussed awhile back, but hey, until we here more "real news" why not rehash the old stuff?

    Of course every skater is different. But I was thinking about MK and her comments during interviews about feeling overwhelmed a bit (or whatever words she used) with the COP. On the other hand, we heard Johnny say that he leaves the COP figuring to his coach and choreographer, and he just concentrates on skating.

    History tells us that MK likes to be very involved in her own choreo, etc. I suspect Johnny has a say so in that department as well. So for any skater under this system who is at a point (age / maturity / experience related) to have lots of input to the choreo, they would be wise to have coaches / choreographers who KNOW the new system, and heed their advice with regard to suggested changes and options.

    However Johhny (as one example - I'm sure there are many others such as Buttle perhaps) seems to have a balanced COP strategy that worked very well for him last year - pre-injury of course.

    Whoever can muster up a technically challenging program with some great choreo will win the day IMO. (of course, along with staying on their feet) I can't wait!

    DG

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    re: NJS

    Quote Originally Posted by Doggygirl
    I think this concept also ties into the notion of those who demonstrate skill in the full array of jumps v. "leaving out" one or more. While that shouldn't affect the TES side of the score, it probably should (IMO) affect the PCS side.
    Great discussion - thanks for all the information.

    Just wanted to add my two cents with regard to PCS scores and "leaving out" jumps. The whole basis of the NJS is to garner as many points as possible. If a skater doesn't have a 3/3, they must figure out a way to maximize their points by following the rules and using the stated ISU criteria. If they must leave out a jump in order to accomplish this, wouldn't it be a little harsh for the judges to turn around and deduct PCS points for this (especially if the two jumps they are repeating are two of the hardest triples - the flip and lutz)?

    If that be the case, then the judges should also deduct PCS points from skaters who don't show variety in their other elements as well (i.e., using the biellman position in every spin and spiral).

    JMHO.

  5. #20
    Down With It
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    Sorry...I REALLY feel out of the loop here, especially since I have to ask this, but...what's NJS?

  6. #21
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    New Judging System -- the system formerly known as CoP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MKbeauty
    Just wanted to add my two cents with regard to PCS scores and "leaving out" jumps. The whole basis of the NJS is to garner as many points as possible. If a skater doesn't have a 3/3, they must figure out a way to maximize their points by following the rules and using the stated ISU criteria. If they must leave out a jump in order to accomplish this, wouldn't it be a little harsh for the judges to turn around and deduct PCS points for this (especially if the two jumps they are repeating are two of the hardest triples - the flip and lutz)?

    If that be the case, then the judges should also deduct PCS points from skaters who don't show variety in their other elements as well (i.e., using the biellman position in every spin and spiral).

    JMHO.
    Exactly!

    In a idear situation I'd like to see variety in Jumps as well as other elements.

    However I don't agree simply punish those skater leave out one type of jump in their program or reward those planned 5 diff jumps. Remember a planed jump does not equal a landed jump. If a skater planned a 6/7 triple program with all different 5 triples but she only landed 4 type of them. It is just like plan a 6 triple land all of them include 4 diff type of them. One might argue that if you leave out one type means you can't do it, or judge can watch practice to see who has what type jumps. But remember you all are talking about the judging by the performance of that night. If you don't landed it, than you don't landed. No matter what planned in your program.....The reward of variaty on jumps (either go with PCS score or set aside 1 or 2 bonus point on top of the total score) should only reward to those who COMPLETE all 5 different type jumps. Or even better, bonus point to skaters who complete all his/her planned jumps (high risk elements). The deduction or lower PCS scores (especially the choreography) should give to those skaters repeat the same positions or lack of variety in their movements on ice.

  8. #23
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    Can Jeffrey catch Stephane?
    Well, this is not nearly as clear cut as Irina versus Sasha.

    Stephane scored 144.18 points in his free skate, versus 136.30 for Buttle. But they both made so many mistakes that the only lesson to be learned is, try to land your jumps.

    The eight jumping passes (base values): Lambiel 45.5, Buttle 50.5.

    So Buttle actually outpointed Lambiel on jumps even though Lambiel did two clean quads and Buttle fell twice!

    The reason Lambiel's jump values were so low was because he singled his opening triple Axel attempt (he got 0.8 base value for a single Axel. But one judge gave him a +1 GOE. It must have been an outstanding single Axel.)

    Also he doubled his second triple Axel attempt, doubled his Lutz combo and singled his flip, giving away a ton of points.

    Looking at these numbers, I have to agree with Mr. Cinquanta -- Plushenko could have come out in his pajamas and won.

    Buttle, on the other hand, used four of his allowed jumping passes on Axel jumps -- he fell on his first triple Axel, on his second he got credit for a phantom combo even though he didn't do a second jump, and then at the end he did two double Axels in a row -- I don't know what he intended there. He also fell on his triple loop.

    So the jumps were pretty much a bust for both skaters.

    The six spins/step elements: Lambiel 14.6, Buttle, 14.5.

    Almost a dead heat there, despite Lambiel's reputation as a big spinner. In any case, with only 15 points available for spins/steps and 50+ points available for jumps, it's pretty clear that you can't spin your way onto the podium if you fall on your jumps.

    GOE: Lambiel 7.22, Buttle -1.58.

    Well, this is the a swing of 8.80. Overall, Lambiel's margin of victory was 7.88. So we don't have to go any farther. Jeff had -3 GOE for each of his two falls, and also took a -2 fall deduction.

    Jeff stays on his feet, he wins the free skate handily.

    Component scores: Lambiel, 76.86, Buttle 74.88

    This is interesting. Although the judges gave Lambiel consistently higher marks (mostly 7.75s to Buttle's 7.50s), after averaging and factoring this translated into only a two-point advantage for Lambiel. Lambiel could have gained more points that this by merely doubling his opening Axel instead of singling it.

    So, bottom line, at least in this contest, the only thing that counts is landing your jumps.

    It does not appear, in the case of the men at least, that the judges can manipulate the results very much by fiddling with the component scores.

    **********************************

    It was interesting to me to do that analysis. Looking at the CoP numbers, both skaters stunk. But watching the actual performances, they were both great. I don't know what the moral is for skaters preparing for the Olympics.

    ***************************************
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe
    Can Michelle get a medal?
    Going by the numbers from Worlds, Michelle does not have to do anything new to get a medal. She was third in both the short program and the long, without really doing much of anything.

    Mathman
    Last edited by Mathman; 06-30-2005 at 09:49 PM.

  9. #24
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I think what we have at this point in time are two close races:

    Irina v. Sasha and Stephane v. Buttle.

    I would say - at this point in time - Carolina, Michelle, Evan and Johnny have a lot of catching up to do. The only way they can catch leader is to be sure they can pass the No.2 skater also who may take the lead. We now have something to go on when the GPs are in full swing.

    As for Michelle - well, I'm not banking on the cheesefests to redeem her. No GPs, no Oly medal. JMO.

    Joe

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKbeauty
    Great discussion - thanks for all the information.

    Just wanted to add my two cents with regard to PCS scores and "leaving out" jumps. The whole basis of the NJS is to garner as many points as possible. If a skater doesn't have a 3/3, they must figure out a way to maximize their points by following the rules and using the stated ISU criteria. If they must leave out a jump in order to accomplish this, wouldn't it be a little harsh for the judges to turn around and deduct PCS points for this (especially if the two jumps they are repeating are two of the hardest triples - the flip and lutz)?

    If that be the case, then the judges should also deduct PCS points from skaters who don't show variety in their other elements as well (i.e., using the biellman position in every spin and spiral).

    JMHO.
    I wasn't talking about deductions. By the very nature of how PCS works, I don't think deductions exist. I'm simply suggesting that if I were a judge (which clearly I'm not), all other things being equal (which they are generally not) I would reward variety. And to your point - I would like to see variety of different positions rather than over-use of any one such as the Biellmann.

    DG

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    I think what we have at this point in time are two close races:

    Irina v. Sasha and Stephane v. Buttle.

    I would say - at this point in time - Carolina, Michelle, Evan and Johnny have a lot of catching up to do. The only way they can catch leader is to be sure they can pass the No.2 skater also who may take the lead. We now have something to go on when the GPs are in full swing.

    As for Michelle - well, I'm not banking on the cheesefests to redeem her. No GPs, no Oly medal. JMO.

    Joe
    ITA Joe. In addition to verifying the program scores under COP in front of actual judges, I think MK is a bit "rusty" on international ice. For her, taking the ice at home in front of hoardes of screaming fans has got to feel quite a bit different than taking the ice on more neutral territory. MK seems to feed off of the atmosphere in the arena. I would imagine (and you would know, so please share your thoughts and correct me if you don't think this is a factor) it's different outside of NA.

    DG

  12. #27
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    Re: NJS

    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Going by the numbers from Worlds, Michelle does not have to do anything new to get a medal. She was third in both the short program and the long, without really doing much of anything.
    Good point, Mathman.

    I guess it's nice to have an idea of what score it will take to win a competition under the NJS; however, I still think next season is a whole new ballgame, and certainly not just a competition between the top two finishers from Worlds. Last summer, everyone was saying the Japanese women were unbeatable. Will Irina be able to keep her momentum going? Sure, her LP points from Worlds were impressive. Her scores from the GP, however, weren't nearly as high:

    COC = 114.84
    COR = 121.90
    GPF = 115.42
    Euros = 103.69
    Worlds = 130.10

    I think it's going to be a VERY interesting season.

    P.S. And, yes, I do agree that MK should skate the GP if she's healthy, not only to get the feel of international ice, but to get back into the competition mindset.
    Last edited by MKbeauty; 07-01-2005 at 03:41 PM.

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    But what if she choses or forced to do something this season?

    ETA,
    MKbeauty your list of GP event scores reminds that to me it was obviously Michelle was not well prepared for CoP last season. Not only she sitting out the whole GP. But she only studied taped 4CC and European competetion. IMO, obviously she tweaked her LP according to the top scores posted on these two competetions. Which obviously was not good enough. She should've studied CoC and CoR as well to see the top scores from those competetions.
    Last edited by mzheng; 07-01-2005 at 03:51 PM.

  14. #29
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Thanks for the numbers, MKBeauty. I agree, this gives us a clearer perspective.
    Quote Originally Posted by mzheng
    (Michelle) should've studied CoC and CoR as well to see the top scores from those competetions.
    That is an interesting comparison. Michelle scored 113.98 in her one foray into CoP judging, even with a fall on her Salcow. This puts her within one point of Irina's total at Cup of China and within two points of Irina's GP Finals score.

    Cup of China will be huge this year, with Michelle, Irina and Shizuka facing off. Wouldn't it be cool if Mao Asada won? She scored 119.13 points at Junior Worlds.

    MM

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Thanks for the numbers, MKBeauty. I agree, this gives us a clearer perspective.That is an interesting comparison. Michelle scored 113.98 in her one foray into CoP judging, even with a fall on her Salcow. This puts her within one point of Irina's total at Cup of China and within two points of Irina's GP Finals score.

    Cup of China will be huge this year, with Michelle, Irina and Shizuka facing off. Wouldn't it be cool if Mao Asada won? She scored 119.13 points at Junior Worlds.

    MM
    For anyone who has yet to see Mao, you can download her Jr. World's LP here:

    http://www.cruelladekwan.com/otherskaters/asada.htm

    Her presentation is still juniorish (to be expected) in comparison to the top Sr. Ladies, but she packs on the technical content. She's got the jumping ability that we have come to expect from our Junior Jumpers (and she actually missed a combo, but completed a 3A), but got all level 2 and up on her non-jump elements. She should be an exciting addition to the mix next season!

    DG

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