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Thread: Who's Got the Points for Gold?

  1. #31
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKbeauty
    I guess it's nice to have an idea of what score it will take to win a competition under the NJS; however, I still think next season is a whole new ballgame, and certainly not just a competition between the top two finishers from Worlds. Last summer, everyone was saying the Japanese women were unbeatable. Will Irina be able to keep her momentum going? Sure, her LP points from Worlds were impressive. Her scores from the GP, however, weren't nearly as high:

    COC = 114.84
    COR = 121.90
    GPF = 115.42
    Euros = 103.69
    Worlds = 130.10

    I think it's going to be a VERY interesting season.
    ATTAgirl MK beauty - With stats like this, this is what we need to ponder over. It's not unlike stats in other sports especially baseball. If you take the mean of those stats it could mean something.

    Joe

  2. #32
    Down With It
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    New Judging System -- the system formerly known as CoP.
    Ah. thanks. That had me confused for a while...

  3. #33
    Custom User Title CDMM1991's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    ATTAgirl MK beauty - With stats like this, this is what we need to ponder over. It's not unlike stats in other sports especially baseball. If you take the mean of those stats it could mean something.

    Joe
    ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.

  4. #34
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDMM1991
    ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.

    Why, she skated good programs in COC and COR, decent programs at the GPF and Had a great short but not so good free program at EUR. And then blew the house down with her long program at Worlds so why should there be any speculation about a predetermined result

  5. #35
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    According to the written code, she had a flawed skate in her Euros SP. She also had a flawed skate in her quali round and SP at Worlds. It isn't even so much her placement at the end of these programs, but the difficult to surmount point totals.

  6. #36
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    Thanks, Gkelly

    gkelly
    06-29-2005
    Post #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Rgirl
    Mathman,
    Kostner really is the inconsistency queen. I don't know her highest finish at Worlds off hand, but she's never been on or close to being one he podium,
    Quote Originally Posted by Gkelly
    Um, she was on the podium (bronze medal) in 2005.

    And fifth in 2004, which is "close to being on the podium."
    Oooooooh! That was a bad one! I mean to forget Carolina won the bronze at this year's Worlds is a boo-boo for the ages, not to mention 5th place in '04.:banging: Thanks reminding me that I can never rely on my memory for placements--and as I before, I really like Kostner!

    My apologies. Though I'm still concerned about CK's consistency, now that I have her CORRECT World placements to go by :o hasn't one or more people mentioned that Carolina has the same Worlds placements prior to the Olympics as Sarah? Sarah had the advantage of "cat landings" (if Sarah ever fell in her Senior career, I never saw it), which CK doesn't. However, CK is moving in a coach's dream of a direction: Improves each year to peak by Worlds even if she's had problems during GPS/F and Euros. So her training periodization--big word for training direction--is excellent.

    One more thing, even though this thread is about who has the points to win the Olympic GOLD, I admit I broke the rules in my post and was thinking about which ladies skaters had the best chances to get on the podium and where. On paper, the odds are with Irina, Gold; Sasha, Silver, and Kostner, Bronze.

    But in '02, Sarah had a similar, if not the same Worlds record to Kostner. Michelle had dominated Worlds except for '99 when she was sick and Butryskaya had the skate of her life--good for her, BTW, to do so at 26. On the men's side, '02 went by the odds, except for Geobel's surprise bronze. But in '98, Kulik finished 5th in '97; 2nd in '96; and though he won '95 Euros and Jr. Worlds, I couldn't find, despite looking (learned my lesson, which I'll probbly have to learn again) where he placed at the '95 Sr. Worlds, but IIRC he finished low, maybe 10th, maybe lower. The point is, it's fun to look at a skater's background and try to predict his/her placements in the Olympics, but in the end, it is just fun--unless you're doing serious business in Vegas or Atlantic City.

    But even so, one should get her facts straight, RGIRL! Which is why I should have never broken my sabbatical "one last time." :banging:

    Ta,
    R

    P.S. Maybe somebody should start a new thread about whether Irina's win at Worlds was predetermined. As a partial subject that can be tied to the Olympics, I'm all for it. But as a complete and separate subject, IMO, too Off-Topic.

  7. #37
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rgirl
    P.S. Maybe somebody should start a new thread about whether Irina's win at Worlds was predetermined.
    LOL RGirl, but PLEASE NO!! Ten more threads about how Irina is always held up would KILL me!!! Please!! No murders on GS, OK???



    DG

  8. #38
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    We know some skaters have inconsistencies; we know some presumed inconsistent skaters have great days, too.

    I've said enough about the ladies, that is why I am interested in going to the points. If one takes the trouble and it will be trouble to gather up the points from different competitions and compare them with the forthcoming GPs, I believe a different preview of the Olys will emerge.

    Everything at this point in time can and probably will change by the GPF. I just think it is another system of prejudging than nitpicking certain poor traits of any skater.

    Hanky panky by the judges, is of course, another topic.

    Joe

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDMM1991
    ITA also it raises even more of a question of whether Irina's world result was decided before she took the ice.
    With COP, how is that possible? She received what she put out there. I guess the notion, Michelle is slow, Irina will be held up, and Sasha will never win a major competition, will be around for a long time.

  10. #40
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rgirl
    Though I'm still concerned about (Carolina Kostner's) consistency, now that I have her correct World placements to go by, hasn't one or more people mentioned that Carolina has the same Worlds placements prior to the Olympics as Sarah?
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe
    If one takes the trouble and it will be trouble to gather up the points from different competitions and compare them with the forthcoming GPs, I believe a different preview of the Olys will emerge.
    I definitely (how's that, GrGranny ) have mixed feelings about the predictive value of all these points. Going strictly by the numbers from last year's Grand Prix series, they would say that Carolina is a junior skater who doesn't belong on the same ice as the serious contenders, while Joannie Rochette is pretty much a lock for an Olympic medal.

    Here are the points for the free skates of these two skaters, with Irina's (thanks MKBeauty) for comparison.

    Carolina:

    Skate Canada, 88.08
    Eric Bompard, 89.78
    Cup of Russia, 71.42 (10th behind Slutskaya, Sebestyen, Arakawa, Sokolova, Maniachenko, Dytrt, Timoshenko, Liu and Kirk)

    Joannie:

    Cup of China, 102.68
    Eric Bompard, 113.08
    GP Final, 101.00

    Irina

    Cup of China, 114.84
    Cup of Russia, 121.90
    GP Final, 115.42

    I do have to admit, though that this coming season is the first time that I have cared much about the Grand Prix series.

    Mathman

  11. #41
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doggygirl
    LOL RGirl, but PLEASE NO!! Ten more threads about how Irina is always held up would KILL me!!! Please!! No murders on GS, OK???
    Doggygirl, I have just done an extensive analysis of how often skaters have been held up by those cheatin' judges, factored by the skewness coefficient and averaged over the cultural bias estimator.

    Sonia Hennie: 1,294.39 times.

    Michelle Kwan: 654.18 times.

    Dick Button: 119.32 times.

    Peggy Fleming: 54.72 times

    Terry Gannon, 1 time, in the 1983 NCAA championship basketball game. Gannon scored 7 points (should have been 6, the way I scored it at home), as North Carolina State beat Houston (led by Hakeem Olajuwan), 54-52.

    In further breaking news, freshman Andrew Brackman recently won the Terry Gannon Award for best free throw percentage at N.C. State in 2005. Go Andrew!!!!!

  12. #42
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    Mathman!!!

  13. #43
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I definitely (how's that, GrGranny ) have mixed feelings about the predictive value of all these points. GP Final, 101.00Mathman
    Well then, we will stick to our favorite (who will win) without any interference of what judges are thinking by their scores at this point in time or in future points of time before the Olys. All we seem to want is a winner (and it should be a personal favorite) or say so and so wuzzrobbed especially after all that incisive nitpicking. How could it be? :frown2:

    Sticking by our favorite is the best predictive value. Our rationales will verify that.


    Joe

  14. #44
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Joe, I love numbers as much as you do. I'm just saying that predictions can be wrong.

    By looking at Carolina's CoP numbers from her three Grand Prix events, her average score in the free skate was 83.09. Who could have predicted, from these results, that she would jump up at Worlds and beat this average by more than 30 points? (Carolina scored 113.29 at Worlds, almost matching Michelle's 113.98 )

    Joannie, meanwhile, had an average of 105.59 in her three Grand Prix events, but fell off by more than 12 points to finish at 92.94 at Worlds. On THAT DAY her performance only got her 15th place, no matter how many points she had earned in earlier competitions.

    MM

  15. #45
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Doggygirl, I have just done an extensive analysis of how often skaters have been held up by those cheatin' judges, factored by the skewness coefficient and averaged over the cultural bias estimator.

    Sonia Hennie: 1,294.39 times.

    Michelle Kwan: 654.18 times.

    Dick Button: 119.32 times.

    Peggy Fleming: 54.72 times

    Terry Gannon, 1 time, in the 1983 NCAA championship basketball game. Gannon scored 7 points (should have been 6, the way I scored it at home), as North Carolina State beat Houston (led by Hakeem Olajuwan), 54-52.

    In further breaking news, freshman Andrew Brackman recently won the Terry Gannon Award for best free throw percentage at N.C. State in 2005. Go Andrew!!!!!
    Good thing I didn't have a mouth full of coffee when I read that. It would have been all over my keyboard.

    DG

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