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Thread: Who's Got the Points for Gold?

  1. #46
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    By looking at Carolina's CoP numbers from her three Grand Prix events, her average score in the free skate was 83.09. Who could have predicted, from these results, that she would jump up at Worlds and beat this average by more than 30 points? (Carolina scored 113.29 at Worlds, almost matching Michelle's 113.98 )

    MM
    I love these score sheets! Carolina increased her TES score by more than 10 points between Euros and World's just by doing a better job of executing what she's capable of. (44.75 and Euros with lots of mistakes, 55.5 in QR and 54.94 in LP with lesser mistakes). I'm assuming something similar is true in the SP just by looking at the placements, but I didn't actually look at the score sheets.

    So I think keeping an eye on what skaters are doing out there v. what we know they CAN do will help us develop our list of "real" dark horses - those most likely to pull a Sarah.

    I like the fact that the TES scores are really in the hands of the skaters in terms of base value. Under 6.0, would Carolina have recieved roughly a 24% better Technical score for her performance at World's based on the previous season? I sort of doubt it. I'm glad to see Carolina got credit where credit was due in the scores.

    On another note....

    I recall a comment right after the Ladies event was over at World's about how Carolina's PCS score went up dramatically between the QR and LP (as in, "How can that be???")

    Actually, there was a noticeable uptick in all the top 4 ladies:

    Irina: 59.24 QR, 66.07 LP
    SC: 56.64 QR, 62.12 LP
    CK: 51.28 QR, 58.35 LP
    MK: 55.2 QR, 59.36 LP

    Any opinions on this piece? What comes to mind for me is that I think in general, the skaters approach the QR with more of a cautious approach - get through it without major mistakes, and maybe skate more "full out" in the LP. If that's the case, I think it would impact PCS between these two segments (but probably not in all categories, as it seems to happen). Other ideas?

    DG

  2. #47
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    MK: 55.2 QR, 59.36 LP
    The difference here listed is the smallest of the four, yet MK had a terrible (by her standard) QR and a much better FS (even though she fell once). I think it's interesting that the difference is only four points.

  3. #48
    Keeper of La Khok's Tutus Doggygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    The difference here listed is the smallest of the four, yet MK had a terrible (by her standard) QR and a much better FS (even though she fell once). I think it's interesting that the difference is only four points.
    I suspect that her fall may have impacted that - the other 3 mentioned didn't fall. Falls do tend to be disruptive to the program. I have no idea if that's really "why" but that's my uneducated guess. And she still placed ahead of CK in the LP in spite of the fall. So I think all was right in the end, taking the competition as a whole. (IMO of course)

    DG

  4. #49
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I was about to comment on the same thing, Red Dog. If Michelle got 55.2 for her qualifying skate, I think I need to raise the number of times she has been held up from 654 to 655.

    In contrast, the whopping gain by Carolina tells me that somewhere in the middle of this contest the judges decided, hey, maybe this girl can skate after all.

    In the case of Michelle, the judges might well have felt some pressure not to totally bury one of the stars of the event -- keep the television people happy by at least letting the five-time champion compete. (She was 7th overall after qualifying -- that was bad enough, television-wise, because she was not in the final group for the short.)

    The other factor is, Michelle's basic skating is so superior that maybe they legitimately felt that, artistically, Michelle sliding on her butt was still prettier than what some of the less famous skaters were laboring so gallantly at.

    The more of these score sheets that I look at, the more sympathy I have for the judges' task. To me, it would seem like it would take the judges' full attention to grade each element as it comes. I can understand why, at the end of the performance, the best they can do with the Program Component scores is just scribble down some overall guess about the quality of the program as a whole.

    Doggygirl, I do think that the elite skaters may come in with a sort of "it's only the qualifying round" mentality, as you suggest. Even though the points are carried over, they are weighted only 25% -- plenty of time to psych themselves up to skate for gold even after an uninspired qualifying skate.

    But the other skaters may feel like the qualifying round is their chance to put themselves on the map in the eyes of the judges.

    Mathman
    Last edited by Mathman; 07-04-2005 at 11:51 AM.

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    Just speculating here, but I agree with Doggygirl and MM that they may be saving themselves for the LP...but also, isn't the Qualifying in the morning? If so, I can imagine that it just doesn't feel the same...kinda like putting on an evening gown at 10 am...more like a getting ready for an event, not the event itself; also, less crowd/audience may influence the skates, and its the beginning NOT the end of the competition so that they are kind of still in first gear.

  6. #51
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Sasha said, about the morning skate, that it was OK for her because of the time difference in flying to Moscow. To her body, it was the shank of the evening.

    MM

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    Joe, I love numbers as much as you do. I'm just saying that predictions can be wrong.

    By looking at Carolina's CoP numbers from her three Grand Prix events, her average score in the free skate was 83.09. Who could have predicted, from these results, that she would jump up at Worlds and beat this average by more than 30 points? (Carolina scored 113.29 at Worlds, almost matching Michelle's 113.98 )

    Joannie, meanwhile, had an average of 105.59 in her three Grand Prix events, but fell off by more than 12 points to finish at 92.94 at Worlds. On THAT DAY her performance only got her 15th place, no matter how many points she had earned in earlier competitions.

    MM
    Agree! Who ever said predictions can be right? Looking at our own polls at competition time. How many voters feel that their favorite will win and how many analyze what is going on? Few of the latter. I was probably the only Kwan fan who said she would not win and it was doubtful she would be on the podium. My analysis was that she has not upped the technical. Got lots annoyed Kwan fans after me. They went by the standard that 'she will surprise us'. hmmm. I think some voters think they influence the judges. Not So! Our polls and those of other boards are strictly who is your favorite skater?

    I grew up with the Friday sports sections of the newspapers predicting the outcome of the collegiate football teams on Saturday. One would see Michigan 12 over SMU, and then late saturday afternoon we would see SMU 27, Michigan, 12. Agree, who ever said predictions can be right, and those sports reporters know their teams and do a lot a calculating.

    As I said for the sake of 'fun but serious' predicting, the points could be a tool for an armchair soothsayer to mull over with other types of input to come up with the Oly podium in 4 disciplines. Of course, no one, will be 100% correct for the podium at the forthcoming Olys. There will be surprises. At this point in time it is not difficult see the Russians with a sweep for gold, but other placements are also in hot pursuit. Imo, the GP will tell us more, and so will their points as well as we analyze the various requirements of the CoP. No matter that we do not come up correctly for the Olys. We gave it our best analytical shot as those sportswriters did and do for Saturday Games.

    Otherwise we can stick with - Name Your Favorite Skater and Name Who will Get Gold in the Olympics?

    Joe

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    In the case of Michelle, the judges might well have felt some pressure not to totally bury one of the stars of the event -- keep the television people happy by at least letting the five-time champion compete.
    I'm also starting to think she was held up- big time in the QR. You may well be right that they deliberately kept her "in the hunt". However, this was also the first time that they had to mark her under the Cop instead of the 6.0 system. Did that have something to do with it- not knowing exactly how to score her in relation to everyone else? I don't know.

    If she can be "in the hunt" with the way she performed at worlds, then hey, maybe that Gold isn't quite as far out-of-reach as once thought...

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    If (Michelle) can be "in the hunt" with the way she performed at worlds, then hey, maybe that Gold isn't quite as far out-of-reach as once thought...
    That's how I see it, too, Red Dog. If Michelle had not fallen on her Salchow (losing 4.0 points), then her LP was worth 117.98 points -- higher than the average (117.18) of Irina's five events, even though Irina totally crushed the competition all season long.

    My prediction for Turino (write it down, LOL): If Irina skates like she did at Worlds, Irina will win the gold medal.

    If Irina skates the way she did at Euro's, it will be Michelle.

    It's all in the numbers.

    Mathman

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    If Michelle had not fallen on her Salchow (losing 4.0 points), then her LP was worth 117.98 points -- higher than the average (117.18) of Irina's five events, even though Irina totally crushed the competition all season long.
    I've never thought of it that way. I can't help but wonder if the judges would have done some holding up of their own for MK had she skated well. Maybe she would have even wound up with silver...

    My prediction for Turino (write it down, LOL): If Irina skates like she did at Worlds, Irina will win the gold medal.
    ITA. That is a no-brainer. But, can she repeat that performance...and at altitude?

    Even if she doesn't give it her all (like SLC 02), they'd probably give it to her anyway...go figure :frown2:

    Let's hope that who wins really deserves it.

    If Irina skates the way she did at Euro's, it will be Michelle.
    Now THAT I'm not sure I agree with. In fact, I strongly disagree...I'd look to a few others before I look to MK, and I would look to MK before I'd look to certain other skaters as well.

    Other than the Slutskaya situation the Olympics are simply unpredictable and full of surprises. I'd love to see what happens this time around.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    I've never thought of it that way. I can't help but wonder if the judges would have done some holding up of their own for MK had she skated well. Maybe she would have even wound up with silver...
    Red Dog - Where did you see the Quali Round in Moscow? or are you just picking up comments from those fans, like you, who want MK out of the picture for good? Cheer up. She was off the podium. She more than likely will not be around after Torino and you can feel great, but what will you have to talk about after she is gone?

    Whether MK and IS were held up at Worlds and Euros respectfully, it is not uncommon for nonfans of either to see it that way. Irina won despite the questionable judging. MK got 4th. If you wish to harp on this, that is ok, and there is a good chance, that MK will not medal at the Olys, and not be held up. She is the underdog for the GPs and Olys.

    Joe

  12. #57
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    By the numbers...

    It could be a Canadian sweep of mens and ladies. Rochette and...

    "How Emanuel Sandhu will Win in Turino"

    Sandhu gave a pretty good skate in his LP at Worlds, finifhng third with 134.13 points. Here's how he did it:

    Jumps (base value), 50.3
    Spins and steps (base value), 13.1
    GOE, - 1.15 (due mostly to -3 for a fall on his final triple loop)
    Component scores, 72.88 (3.98 points behinmd the winner, Lambiel)
    Fall penalty, -1

    He lost points by singling his solo triple Axel attempt (getting 0.9 points), and also by wasting a jumping pass to do nothing more than a double Axel.

    Change that to a solo quad toe, and land the Axel, and he gets an additional 13.1 points (equal to his entire point total for all of his spins and step sequences combined!) Also, don't fall on the loop, that takes away the -3 GOE and the -1 penalty.

    He doesn't need to raise the level of his spins, etc., because under the CoP point system they are not worth enough to bother with. But by not falling and by doing two quads, that will automatically raise his Component scores by at least .50 per category, giving him...

    Jumps 63.4
    Spins/steps 13.1
    GOE 1.85
    TCS 77.88

    for a total of 156.23.

    This puts Eman 12 points ahead of Lambiel and on a pace to score 234 total for the long and short together -- that's almost in Plushenko territory.

    (Never say never, but if you "do the math" a healthy Plushenko really can't be beaten under the scoring conventions of the NJS.)

    Mathman
    Last edited by Mathman; 07-05-2005 at 07:55 AM.

  13. #58
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Actually, Joe, I agree with Red Dog. If Michelle had skated better she would have given Sasha a run for the silver.

    MM

  14. #59
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    Mathman - I think MK skated a beautiful LP. What it lacked was some serious MIFs. No inabauer; no spirals other than her own change edge; no charlotte; no spread eagle; and the ever popular no triple triple; While the fall didn't help it left her with a limited number of triples. Still she skated a bolero to the music and it looked to me like a great exhibition piece. Just not competitive.

    Sasha on the other hand, does well with her MIFs, and while she doesn't do triple triples either, she does everything with the proper poses. I think Sasha could have beaten IS if she had a 3x3 and the competition was held at a different venue.

    As for the quali round, which some posters seem to believe was a total disaster for MK, I didn't think so especially because there were no standouts in the quali round for me.

    She's an underdog now and I think that will suit her just fine. No need to press, and hey, if she gets 2 triple triples, she could win.

    Joe

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    As for the quali round, which some posters seem to believe was a total disaster for MK, I didn't think so especially because there were no standouts in the quali round for me.

    She's an underdog now and I think that will suit her just fine. No need to press, and hey, if she gets 2 triple triples, she could win.

    Joe
    IMO her qualifying round was a disaster because she was in 7th place...that is just not Kwan-like at all...CoP let's you still be in the game with this placement, but it isn't the best place to be if you are eyeing the top of the podium. That said...I do think it is a testament to her basic skating skills and musicality that she scored so well in the LP without all the important transitions (I agree with you Joe that she skated a good Bolero, it just was missing, for me and as we have agreed upon before, a number of important elements called MITF)...it tells me she is really competitive and in the running for next year...underdog sure, but totally could win with any number of combinations (2 triple triples being one of them)...it's just that as numerous threads/posters have pointed out...Irina cannot be easily pushed aside, Caro, Sasha, Arawkawa, and still more could all be in the hunt...I can't quite imagine what it would be like if the top 10 or so women skated clean...I think it would be so amazingly intense!!!

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