Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

Jaana said:

I believe that Oksana Baiul was a big favourite to win in 1994, although probably not in USA, LOL. There are other countries existing, and they may see some other skater as the favourite to win... Maybe it is being forgotten by some skating fans that Oksana was the reigning World champion.

Click to expand...

ITA Oksana was the overwhelming favorite in 94 in and out of the USA. But of course the scandal proved distracting, and many fans forget the fact that Nancy was notorious for her LP meltdowns, had placed 5th in the previous World Championships and Oksana (as you said) was the reigning World Champion.

92 and 98 were both showdowns between two strong skaters where, in both cases, the reigning champion won.

In fact 2002 is the ONLY recent example I can think of in the last 20 years where there was a surprise winner in the ladies event.

I know that a lot of American skating fans did not know who Oksana was when she won Worlds in '93; prior to Tonya/Nancy, American TV didn't even show the European championships. I think, though, that might have changed somewhat. After all, Irina got introduced to the American audience during the post-whack boom, and, she was in the last Olys. I think that there is a difference, also, between a "real surprise winner", as in '02 -- where if Michelle faltered, everyone thought that the gold would go to Irina or even Sasha, versus the "media orchestrated surprise", as in '98.

cianni said:

antmanb, I agree about the sentimental side wishing that would happen and maybe it will. I would like an explanation about Irina and Sasha . i dont see the lock in for these two. Will a spin you win give Sasha the gold or got the bielman down over and over and you win. I dont see really clean programs without flaws for either of these two. I would like to know how you see the win here. This is not about Michelle as I agree if she doesnt do the GP and add a lot more to her programs no Medal. Im speaking about skating clean balanced programs. I dont see a medal with trip, falls, hands down , stepping out of jumps or repeating the same spin over and over. I dont see the quality of the skating anymore . The judging is another whole ballgame as we might just get the setup win and I wouldnt count that out. Anyway Id like your feedback and how you see the two to beat. I also like Arakawa, and maybe the come out of nowhere ala Sarah.

Click to expand...

To be honest my comment about Slutskaya and Cohen was more about the judging than the skating, my own personal view point is that a clean 4 or 5 triple program from Kwan is better (read more intersting to me!) than a clean 7 triple program from Cohen. ONe aspect of this for me is just body type - i don't really enjoy the teeny tiny skaters that look like they're skating on the ice not into the ice. Cohen looks to me like she's skidding on top of the ice where kwan and slutskaya look like they're really skating into the ice, like if you froze them in time and looked at the ice half their blade is sunk deep into the ice! A lot of the small tiny skaters look like they're skaidding around on top of the ice, Kwan for some reason despite being tiny actually looks more athletic on TV even though in real life i'm sure she is very petitie and Irina looks more athletic which i prefer visually.

As for the other parts - Kwan for me is the best basic skater - she has the cleanest, fastest most secure running edges and (her last few competitive LPs nothwithstanding) has the best exection of choreography - down to movements of fingers, economy of facial expressions (contrast cohen) placements of arms and feet in very pretty positions in a genuinely musical way that, to me, is the personification of musicality. Every cross over, every movement is done in time with the music. Her SPs are still like this and although her chorpgegraphy has gone down a bit in the LPs in the last couple of seasons i'm hoping she'll pull something fantastic out of the bag for this up coming season (it is a dream on my part but hey we live to dream!).

So Kwan for me is number one, a very very close second (again this is just for me) ...so close that depeding on the performance of the skate, these two can change backwards and forwards as my favourites is Slutskaya...jumps that are just to die for (telegrpahing notwithstanding) she really attacks every jump and flies on every one - she's the one that excites me because you just don't know whether she'll do the most amazingly difficult jump combination out of nowhere or if she'll play it safe and do a beautifully executed clean jump. I remember a Europsort commentator in an SP once saying "well we know the first jump in the combo will be a triple lutz but the second jump could any on of 2toe or 2 loop or 3 toe or 3 loop, she did all of them this morning in pratice!". She, as i said above, has amazing edge control but less so than kwan and tends to use more raw power in her speed than a genuine use of the skate blade to conserve energy a la kwan. Her spins are fast and she's extremely flexible but the thing that gives her huge points is the genuine feeling of her skating performances, where kwan is a true artist on the Ice Irina usually gets her personlity across in the skate and that is worth a million CoP points - her bubbly smile and personlity really come through - she just can't help herself if she lands an extrememly diffuclt jump she smiles and it lightsup the arena. The call between her and Kwan for me really is - how did they do on the day? I think Irina has the edge if she has a skate like the LP at '05 worlds (with a seventh triple that counts) and Kwan skates the life out of a a six triple program, if they're both on seven triple with or without 3/3s for me - its the feeling on the day and it boils down to who sold the program the best - they both have sentimental stories that tug at your heart strings - and it depends how you feel on taht day.

Cohen for me is in a different to league to these two skaters while she is an extremely beautfiul girl, i find her skating lacking in beauty, part of it is the extreme body positions (like i hate the over arched back that gymnasts seem to have) and Cohen to me is a gymnast on ice and that to me isn't aesthetically pleasing. I don't want to go off on a rant about why i don't particulalary care for her skating so what I will say is that cohen needs a strong choregogrpaher that can give her the best program possible in a "choreograph by numbers" way. I don't think cohen feels the music - her choreography looks to me like she thinking "oh right the music crescendos next so i have to get ready to put my arm in the air...the music goes into a quiet phase so i must now pull and agonised face" the choreogprahy is kind of small scale - its done for the cameras and the TV viewers not the people in the arena. That aside she is a wicked spinner and her body position/air position in jumps is second to none but the take offs and landing are iffy - she really does muscle the triples out where Irina is just super solid and you more or less expect her land every one (which is why watching '04 worlds was so painful).

Eek...i've gone on and on so i'll end it there!!!

Ant

curious said:

Yes,we should hold irina responsible for michell's lack of motivation and effort. Is also her fault that kwan can't land a triple -triple in comps to save her life or skate more complex programs. If you think your endless irina bashing is going to help your fave win go ahead,just remember,is the JUDGES these skaters have to please not us. ain't jealousy grand?

Click to expand...

Since the post above was not bashing any skater - it was a simple comment ath the judges are swayed to give program with 3/3s and bielmann positions (ie greater technical content under the rules) higher PCS scores even though those two things shouldn't affect each other - its your incessant bashing of kwan and her bringing her into every thread that is getting very tiresome (sarcasm alert)

Ant

curious said:

I have my facts straight thank you. How many triple-triples has michell landed in comps lately? I rest my case

Click to expand...

You made no case so know response is necessary...how many 3/3s have been landed by skaters in the week commencing 4 July? I rest my case...makes about as much sense!

Ant

dancindiva03 said:

And how many triple-triples has Sasha landed EVER? Yeah that's what I thought. Neither one of these ladies can brag in the 3-3 department if we're only talking the last year. But overall, careerwise? I think we all know who wins that one. And in case you're not sure, its not Sasha!

Click to expand...

I think overall career wise Kwan beats both Irina and Sasha doesn't she? She at least breaks about even. I don't think Irina has had any more success with ehr 3asl/3loop combination than Kwan has with the 3toe/3toe...sure Irina gets brownie points for the more diccicult combination but how many times have they landed their 3/3s...Irina has only landed the 3 lutz/3 loop twice in competition and the first time the 3 loop was mighty spinny on take off and landing...anyone know that actual totals?

Ant

Why Doesn't Michelle Have a Chance?

How many people wrote off a healthy Irina In '98/''99, when she didn't skate well enough to make the World team? She turned herself around in a year, going from an odd-year-curse (World bronze in '96; sixth place in '97; world silver in '98; not on team in '99) to a podium regular (as long as she is in good health)

Who saw the '98 Oly bronze medalist in Chen Lu, when she went from World silver ('96) to 27th place in 1997? Who saw a World champ in Shizuka prior to '04? Who saw her in 9th place the year later? Yet, no one seems ready to write her off?

IMO, Kwan is as capable coming back strong as any of these other skaters, unless there is something about her state of health which is not yet being shared with the world.

attyfan said:

After her horrible season in '98 and '99 (when she was not ill) people would have criticized Irina for not landing any triple-triples "lately" -- until the GPF in 2000, when she made history.

Click to expand...

I'm assuming you mean the 1998-99 season and are not including 97-98. She did land triple-triples that year, a good 3toe-3toe at the Olympics IIRC, and somewhat flawed 3sal-3loop AND 3toe-3toe at Worlds.

Mathman said:

About Sasha and triple-triples, I think Curious was comparing Michelle (what have you done for us lately?) with Irina, not with Sasha. Sasha did do a triple-triple in her qualifying program at 2004 Worlds, however, IIRC.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure about that, but she did land 3lutz-3toe in the freeskate at 2003 Worlds.

attyfan said:

as in '02 -- where if Michelle faltered, everyone thought that the gold would go to Irina or even Sasha,

Click to expand...

Why Sasha? Just because she was third after the short program? Or because she had beaten Sarah at Nationals and Sarah had beaten Maria B at the GPF and the previous Worlds? But Sasha herself had never beaten them in international competition yet, being fairly new on the scene at that point.

From my perspective, even after the short program, it looked like Kwan and Slutskaya were co-favorites and Hughes, Butyrskaya, and Cohen about equally favored for bronze, with a few others as possible longshots.

Atttnfan - I don't think fans of MK are writing her off. (You have to ignore the nonfans of MK).

Your samples of Divas who have fallen by the wayside were not competing under the CoP system. What fans like me are asking is whether she can pick up enough points to be more competitive for gold.

I think there were quite a number of points that Irina had over MK at the end of Moscow Worlds. Is it surmountable? We must see MK in the GPs to check this out. Her fans will give her full support in Atlantic City if she shows up. I can not speculate about China. But both these competitions will let us know if there is a strong will to win. She doesn't have to win them. She should just show that she cares, and come Torino she will be ready.

(As for the US Nats under the CoP, I will take that with a grain of salt.)

If she does not do the GPs, we will just wait for her to surprise us in Torino. hmmm.

Joe

Joesitz said:

I'm not sure whether you are anti-Kwan or anti-American. Not that it matters, it seems quite obvious. Appreciate your feelings about Sasha who is, at the moment, the American who may just win the forthcoming Olys.

Joe

Click to expand...

And is so obvious you and others here can't stand a different opinion or any kind of criticisms about your faves. if you think that makes me anti -american fine. I come here to discuss figure skating not my believes or feelings with you. And for your information,I didn't make any comments about Sasha in my post,but that's the only way some people can justify their fave problems. If bashing someone who does not agree with your commments makes you happy go right ahead I don't care. that's all I'm going to say about this bye.

curious said:

I come here to discuss figure skating not my believes or feelings with you. .

Click to expand...

Oh, right. I thought you came here to dissing MK from what you put in your posts.

antmanb said:

Since the post above was not bashing any skater - it was a simple comment ath the judges are swayed to give program with 3/3s and bielmann positions (ie greater technical content under the rules) higher PCS scores even though those two things shouldn't affect each other - its your incessant bashing of kwan and her bringing her into every thread that is getting very tiresome (sarcasm alert)

Ant

Click to expand...

your constant bashing of the best skater in the world irina(whether you like it or not)is more tiresome,but I don't get on your back for that like you and others do

curious said:

your constant bashing of the best skater in the world irina(whether you like it or not)is more tiresome,but I don't get on your back for that like you and others do

Click to expand...

You've jumped on every one of my posts so yes you do get on my back everytime...except the ones where i'm praising Irina...selective reading or what? Did you totally miss the huge post in this thread that mostly praises Irina...i guess because you're incapabale of objectively looking at the skaters you assume evryone else is the same? my analyses doesn't fit in with your ridiculous idea of liking one skater means you have to hate another...and all your phoney emoticons after you bash a skater...very VERY tiresome!

Ant

Irina isn't exactly a triple-triple queen. Where was her 3-3 in the '02 Olympics? That could have won gold for her then. And speaking about the '02 Olympics, her LP was pretty awful.

In my opnion, no skater has a lock on the OGM. And I think the real competition will turn out to be between Kwan and Irina.

In response to the comment that started this mini-war, I saw no mention of Cohen in the original post. The poster was talking about MK and Irina. Someone here just assumed that he/she was referring to Cohen, and then went off.

Hordes of people come to Kwan's defense every time she is supposedly "dissed", but I don't see anybody defending other skaters once they are dissed.

antmanb- I really appreciate you explaining in detail why you prefer Kwan and Slutskaya over Cohen. It was an interesting read. I agree with some of what you said (that Cohen does not feel the music at all). I also have found her quite boring to watch lately. The only program of hers that I think is OK is her new exhibition. She looked like she was actually having fun out there, and I like to see that. However, I have never been able to jump on the Kwan bandwagon (or should I say enter Kwan country?) because I just do not feel what so many others out there seem to feel when she skates. I suppose her skating style just isn't my cup of tea. The only recent program of hers that I felt some kind of emotion from was her 03 National LP.

BACK ON TOPIC

As a so-called labeled "nonfan of MK", I have my doubts but am not quite ready to write her off yet. I base my assumptions on the belief that anything can, and will, happen. But are the comparisons people are making here fair? This situation is slightly different- the scoring system has changed and different elements of skating are supposedly emphasized. This is why I believe Kwan has a lot of work to do. The question is, Can she do all this in just eight months? No one necessarily says that she can't do it, though- it's just unlikely. Unlikely doesn't have to mean that it won't happen.

Doggygirl said:

In answer to your first question (which I hope I understand correctly): The NJS was not in place for Olys 2002. Who knows if the outcome would be different under a different judging system. While none of this "bothers me" as a fan of FS, I think the NJS seems to "bother" MK a lot given her admitted concerns and seeming avoidance of the COP/NJS. I'm thinking specifically about her many interviews throughout last season where she was "tweaking her programs" for COP, and her interview post - QR where she said something along the lines that she felt she was "counting" (i.e. spin rotations). By that time in the season, she shouldn't have had to worry over that. IMO, by that late date her programs should have been set and commited. She might want to consider a "Johnny strategy" (from his interviews) where he claims to leave things to his coaches and choreographers to figure out all the COP point stuff - he just skates.

Question for you: Whose opportunity to really, really shine has been screwed up by the powers that be?

Call me curious,

DG

Click to expand...

What I meant is that IF the NJS had been in play in 02, under the current rules, with the programs offered up... It wasn't meant to be a commentary on MK's mindset about the system... just a IF statement. In terms of her fall, which pretty much killed her gold medal chances under the 6.0 but under the NJS I think (without the benefit of truly analyzing the 02 tapes...) she probably would've won the gold. And as an uber ~ I find that distateful & wrong because Sarah Hughes deserved to win because on that night she was the best. IMHO, there is a lot to be said for a clean skate. I have an issue with a system that rewards sloppy performances. Regardless of who skates them.

To answer your question about being screwed by the powers that be... maybe that wasn't the best phrase... Try it like this... Major scandles hurt the atheles who deserve to shine.

When I wrote that, I had Paul Hamm on the brain. He was robbed of major love throughout the US because his federation used a judging system that caused a snafu with the points and gave the impression of bad results. I can see something similar happening with figure skating.

Also, I was one of the people staring at the replay of Europeans thinking WTF??? When Irinia's scores were posted after that free skate. In terms of Worlds ~ was 2005 Sasha's year? Were the PCS scores fair? Were there skaters with a perfect lutz that didn't get proper credit because flutzing wasn't called out & deducted? I've checked out the judging sheets from the link you provided on the ISU site but when I watched a replay of Worlds what was marked & what I saw were two totally different things, espcially once you get past the top four... This is true of Joannie and Miki... And to a certain extent Caro. I think she should've been marked higher on several elements. Who's fault is that? The skaters? The system? or the ISU?

If I'm wrong, please point out the errors in my logic, because like I said earlier, I don't understand the new system that well, but I'm trying to get up to speed before the GP begins.

gkelly said:

Why Sasha? Just because she was third after the short program? Or because she had beaten Sarah at Nationals and Sarah had beaten Maria B at the GPF and the previous Worlds? But Sasha herself had never beaten them in international competition yet, being fairly new on the scene at that point.

From my perspective, even after the short program, it looked like Kwan and Slutskaya were co-favorites and Hughes, Butyrskaya, and Cohen about equally favored for bronze, with a few others as possible longshots.

Click to expand...

Many of us thought Cohen was a favorite going into the long program, because Hughes had a rough Nationals and a flawed SP, that some of us thought should have been scored behind Butyrskaya and even Suguri. (I would have put her behind Sebestyen, myself, but Sebestyen didn't have a chance.) If Butyrskaya could have skated that SP (clean) and still be behind Hughes in the eyes of the judges, it's hard to imagine her as favorite material. Even after Hughes skated, the chasm left in the marks indicated that she wasn't the favorite; the bar wasn't raised for Slutskaya, Kwan, and even Cohen.

Cohen skated very, very well in the SP, and there was no reason to think she wouldn't do well in the long. That would have placed her as a favorite, if Kwan and Slutskaya succumbed to pressure.

antmanb MM

Thanks MM and its AOK. antmanb, I couldnt have said it better . ITA with eveything you said. I do think Michelle is the best skater and always has been in quality of skating. This is what I am really harping on and its fading away. I think poor skating is being rewarded. I dont think falls, hands down, falling out of a jump, flutzing blatantly, spins out of control with no centering should be rewarded and thats what is happening. Maybe COP would work if the judges judged according to the rules and deducted poor quality elements and jumps so the scores would reflect the quality of the skating not their preordained winner. Anyhoo well said much better then I do.