Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

:yes:

cianni said:

Thanks MM and its AOK. antmanb, I couldnt have said it better . ITA with eveything you said. I do think Michelle is the best skater and always has been in quality of skating. This is what I am really harping on and its fading away. I think poor skating is being rewarded. I dont think falls, hands down, falling out of a jump, flutzing blatantly, spins out of control with no centering should be rewarded and thats what is happening. Maybe COP would work if the judges judged according to the rules and deducted poor quality elements and jumps so the scores would reflect the quality of the skating not their preordained winner. Anyhoo well said much better then I do.

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:yes:

Mathman - I totally agree with you that on the PCS side of the house, I still don't have confidence that each component is being evaluated in and of itself. The fact that the scores across the board always seem to be similar for each skater is the Big Red Flag I think many of us have agreed upon over time. And of course we've put the suggestion forward in the Speedy Suggestion Box many times that we think the judging panel should be split between technical scores and PCS scores. I can understand the challenge the judges face having to do two jobs in a very short amount of time - evaluate each element as it happens, and also evaluate the program as a whole in 5 key areas. Maybe Speedy will ask for our advice someday.

Kwanfordwife - As far as Euros and Irina's worst LP of the season, here is what I think some people miss. I don't think anyone questions Irina's lead after the SP. The LP is what created the debate. IIRC, it seemed the majority of the "wuzrobbed" at the time was about Poykio. It's important to note that Poykio's difficulty in non-jump elements is lower than Irina. It is also important to note that the 2 Axel is an important element, and had Poykio not singled hers, she would would have beaten Irina in the LP (which wouldn't have been enough points to change the overall results). So Eleana L had a number of problems in her LP too. So while ITA that Irina's LP was a disaster by Irina standards, the other ladies didn't fully capitalize, and don't have the overall content and other qualities to the same standard Irina has them. So I was personally OK with that result after studying it for awhile.

ITA with your point about flutzing. Fluzting should be penalized in the GOE according to the rules, but it's not consistently done. Therefore, what motivation does a notorious flutzer have to fix the problem? That's a judging problem IMO more than a skater problem. I don't think this problem is inherent in the NJS though. I don't think flutzing was properly deducted under 6.0 either.

While it might be somewhat interesting if one of our NJS experts here were to "score" SCL under NJS and render and opinion, I don't think that would really say anything meaningful. The skaters were competing under the system in place at the time. Who knows how programs might have evolved differently, etc. had a different judging system been in place?

Like you, I'm very interested in "mastering" my understanding of NJS and enjoy the process of picking through the scoresheets. So you can always count on my participation if you start any related threads during your own quest for knowledge!

DG

cianni said:

Reading the posts of late I get the impression Michelle is considered out of contention for a Medal esp. Gold. Does anyone think she could pull a Venus Williams. Venus was #14 seeded in tennis not a chance of winning Wimbleton and there she was the old Venus back in form and beat the best and won Wimbleton for the 3rd time. Maybe Michelle can come back the old Michelle and blow the roof off the arena. That would be the most exciting outcome I can think of since she is the one being counted out. What do you all think.

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Is MK capable of winning the gold yes but (and it is a major but) she has a lot of work to do,

a) She needs a COP freindly program,
b) All her jump elements have to be solid, as of worlds 2005 they weren't
c) She needs to increase the difficult of her non jump elements, partulally her spins
d) she really has to want to be there, the last two years I don't think she has and we all know how this effected SA at worlds this year

If it were only area she needed to work on one area I'd say she had a better chance. Looking at the last two years it's all about motivation, I don't think she has enough to want to put in the work to get there

janetb said:

Is MK capable of winning the gold yes but (and it is a major but) she has a lot of work to do,

a) She needs a COP freindly program,
b) All her jump elements have to be solid, as of worlds 2005 they weren't
c) She needs to increase the difficult of her non jump elements, partulally her spins
d) she really has to want to be there, the last two years I don't think she has and we all know how this effected SA at worlds this year

If it were only area she needed to work on one area I'd say she had a better chance. Looking at the last two years it's all about motivation, I don't think she has enough to want to put in the work to get there

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ITA- this sums up my point about her pretty well. Like I said, it's not impossible but it's certainly a lot of catch-up to play so close to the big game. Is her heart really in it this time? That's a question only she can answer.

Maybe Michelle really has a chance. Besides all the what she should do, one of the most important thing she has now is her own rink, which we recently visited during our vacation. The rink is fantastic. It's near her childhood hometown, and also near her own new home. Her father is the manager of the rink. So Michelle does not have to live at Lake Arrowhead alone to train. We went to her Arteisia rink on Saturday and Sunday morning and saw her there either on ice taking lesson from her coach or upstairs in the fitness room doing off ice. I guess she is very motivated. Other wise she wouldn't be in the cold rink in the gloomy weekend early mornings.

The other factor looming is the big P- pressure. I also think this might hit Irina but she has the big advantage of ALREADY competing in the Olympic atmosphere which gives her a huge advantage over most of her other competitors (save Kwan). Her health is a much bigger factor in this game.

Kwan has let the pressure get to her TWICE in past Olympics. This is why I think that, on top of her having to play catch-up, she needs to find that inner fire that seems to elude her at the Olympics. After seeing her being so tentative at '05 Nationals I'm rather doubtful. And even worse, she was able to win skating like that. It'll be one heck of a story if she's able to come back and win it all IMO.
Playing it safe does not seem to win you a Gold these days.

Unfortunately I can't do the vast number-crunching of the NJS that many posters are doing here since I'm far from being a technical/skating expert, but I look at other factors to arrive at my conclusions.

In some ways, I think the pressure won't be as great for Michelle at these Games versus at SLC and Nagano for one main reason. For the first time in her life she is being seen as somewhat of a dark horse. These Olympics are following a year where she didn't do that well at Worlds so the expectations aren't nearly as great.

CDMM1991 said:

In some ways, I think the pressure won't be as great for Michelle at these Games versus at SLC and Nagano for one main reason. For the first time in her life she is being seen as somewhat of a dark horse. These Olympics are following a year where she didn't do that well at Worlds so the expectations aren't nearly as great.

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That's a good point there. Still, there's the pressure of actually being there and the fact that this is likely the last time that you will get this opportunity. Not everyone has this opportunity, and even for those who do, it's very rare. And who knows the pressure she'll put on herself.

This applies to Slutskaya and especially Cohen as well, since she (SC) seems to have an issue with folding under pressure at big competitions (save '05 Worlds, where I felt she fought through it like never before).

My short answer for this question is "no". There are a ton of reasons why I think this, but they are just my personal reasons & have no merit other than that. But it seems to me that the ISU sent MK a pretty clear message at this last Worlds. Of course, she could always really surprise me.

But it seems to me that the ISU sent MK a pretty clear message at this last Worlds

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Sorry to question, but...what message? If anything, I thought the ISU judges were fairly generous given her scores (and performance) in the QR. Especially considering that her score for the FS was only four points higher and she did that much better (even though she fell).

Red Dog said:

Sorry to question, but...what message? If anything, I thought the ISU judges were fairly generous given her scores (and performance) in the QR. Especially considering that her score for the FS was only four points higher and she did that much better (even though she fell).

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Well, that's your opinion certainly.
IMO, it's the other way around, that ISU judge kept her LP score lower than she deserved considering her LP skated much better than QR but only four points higher.

mzheng said:

IMO, it's the other way around, that ISU judge kept her LP score lower than she deserved considering her LP skated much better than QR but only four points higher.

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IMO Kwan was lackluster (to put it mildly) in the QR. It was the fact that the judge gave her high enough scores to stay in the running (when IMO she could have been a little lower to reflect reality), along with the 4 point difference, that makes me think they were just a wee bit generous on the QR score. The FS score seemed fine to me (but I stress that I do not know this system like many other posters here).

I stress that the above is IMO only, and I do not proclaim any of the above statements to be fact.

Red Dog said:

. After seeing her being so tentative at '05 Nationals I'm rather doubtful. And even worse, she was able to win skating like that.

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Who outskated Kwan at 05 nationals?? No one.Cohen was major lackluster and the worst was Cohen was gifted a silver skating like that, unless you want to make a case for Kimmie to win. I guess I won't argue too much with Kimmie, Kwan for gold and silver, but Kwan Kimmie for gold and silver was not out of line either.

gezando said:

Who outskated Kwan at 05 nationals?? No one.Cohen was ZZZZZZZZ and the worst was with those kind of skate Cohen was gifted a silver, unless you want to make a case for Kimmie to win. I guess I won't argue too much with Kimmie, Kwan for gold and silver, but Kwan Kimmie for gold and silver was not out of line either.

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I would like you to note that I never said that anybody outskated Kwan at U.S. Nationals. She simply was the best in a night of mediocre skating. And I (gasp!) agree with you on your statement but I think Meissner is fine in 3rd place. (I think the case COULD be made to have her in 2nd above Cohen since she did (or sort of did, or whatever) a 3A and Cohen played it safe (and couldn't even skate clean then).

I say MK was worse off to win with that skate because subconsciously you may not raise your standards high enough to go for that top spot...not saying she will but better safe than not.

Scores in the low and mid 7's were just fine for Michelle in the free skate. I'd go below 7 on transitions and choreography and probably right at 7 for her performance and execution, but that's just me. I actually thought her QR PCS scores were more in line with the program she actually presented. My judging card for Kwan's LP would have had these PCS scores: 7.75 6.50 7.00 6.75 7.00. But JMO and most will probably find it too low.

Scores from QR to LP at the same competition should NOT be that different when looking at PCS. Sure, the performance and execution might change a bit, but it's typically the same choreography, maybe performed slighty better/worse, but not a drastic amount. Then again, some skaters start out completely undermarked in the QR and when they position themselves near the top heading into the LP, they finally get marks closer to what they deserved all along. Of course, the exact opposite can be said as well in some cases. WHATEVER the case, judges should judge on what is presented, not past reputations and how a skater has done previously within the same competition.

Looking at the 113 that Kwan got for a program with a fall and a pretty decently two-footed 3lutz, leaving only 4 clean triples, makes you wonder if Rochette's 123 for an absolutely clean 7 triple skate (inc. 3toe/3toe) was THAT out of line. I, for one, don't think so, and think her components should have been more in line with Kwan's, at least all aside from skating skills.

Tony - Everyone was pulling for Joannie! but she went into the boards in addition to a few other faulty moves. That kills a program, and Joannie did not get to the 'bird' as she had done in the GPs. I'm hoping that she learned from this.

Kwan's LP was excellent. Her choreography was more than adequate and she danced a bolero right to the fingers. It was, imo, a great exhibition number and if she had worn a red and black dress with a mantilla on the head, and carried a fan, it would have brought the house down. What she lacked in the program was the competitive technical part. The question really is at this point in time, will this situation improve in the forthcoming season? I'm not convinced she can do it in such a short span of time. It's not a question of dissing what she does, it's a question of dissing what she doesn't do.

As for the QR, no one really skated anything memorable. Irina came closest to something special but not totally. JMO

There is absolutely no reason for Michelle to have pressure at the Olys. She is definitely, THE underdog (unless some miraculous GPs tell us differently). This will be Kwan's Swan Song in eligible skating with choreography by Tatiana Tarrassova. It will be nothing short of gorgeous. She'll go out in high style with or without gold. The non fans will be happy it's over.

Jessilly Thank you for that report on the new rink. Did you hear anything about Arutunian while you were there? Is he still coaching her?

Joe

Michelle did take lesson from Arutunian during 8:15 to 9:15 session Saturday Morning while her mother sitting at the bleacher watching, and then she went up to the fitness room using the machines. She is very petitie in person. Arutunian did not stay the next session teaching.
NNN was skating at the rink Sunday morning. She was trying 3 flip, she landed one, popped one, and fell one...She skated very fast and powerful.

I absolutely believe she has a chance. Do I think she is the favorite? Absolutely not at this point. In fact, I would say that regardless of what she shows us during the season, I don't think there is any scenario which would would make her the favorite. To me, unless Irina's health causes her problems, she is the overwhelming favorite at this point in time. The only thing IMO, that keeps Sasha from that position, is her inability to get through a LP without mistakes.

Everyone keeps saying Michelle has so much ground to make up. I don't really see it that way. Clearly she has to step it up ... but I think she can do that. She made decisions about her training these past few years, and they worked out for the most part, until 2005 Worlds. Now she has to train in a different manner ... if she does, than I expect her to be very competitive. If she doesn't, well then she will probably end up off the podium. From all accounts thus far though, it seems she does have a different approach this year. We will just have to wait and see.

And thanks Jesslily for the EW report. How did she look? Were you able to make out any jumps or choreography she was working on?

nymkfan51 said:

I don't think there is any scenario which would would make her the favorite.

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I disagree. There is a very valid and possible scenario for MK to emerge as the Oly favorite. Dominate the GP's, much like Irina did this past season prior to Worlds. Irina's GP domination is what made Irina the Worlds favorite at least IMO. I believe MK has competitive toughness, and if she comes out with the right programs and content, she could very well enter Oly's as the favorite. She just has to go out there and kick some a$$. The same can be said of many other skaters who didn't gain "favorite" status in 2004/5, but could very well do it in 2005/6.

On the other hand, we have all come to expect many surprises at the Olys, so "coming in as the favorite" (or not) doesn't mean a whole lot. I hope it truly does boil down to the best on the night.

Can't wait!!

DG

DG, I just don't see her dominating the GP. I rather see a steady build-up towards Nationals. In fact, I would rather she didn't peak too soon.
I'm just anxious to see what she can do. I don't know what she's capable of. I certainly "think" she's got it in her, but we just won't know until the season gets into full swing.