Isn't Li the guy who could probably do three quads in one LP but struggle sto land his triple axels and the other upper tier triples? I thought i've seen him on several occassions land both his quads and then miss his 3A and the 3Lz and 3F.Originally Posted by Mathman
What about Li? He does have a quad, not a maybe-he'll-get-one, and he almost always delivers clean programs.
MM
Ant
Dambier and Klimkin are both inconsistent skaters and we don't know how Klimkin will do on his return. I think both of these skaters are plagued exactly as you say by not being the number one (or even number 2) skater for their country. I think Dambier has it all over joubert in terms of choreography and presentation and his planned content for the long is two 4Sals and two 3As. If all the skaters skate their hearts out i think the judges give the nod to Joubert and Pluschenko over Klimkin and Dambier even though i'd definietly put dambier ahead of Joubert (though not pluschenko) and put klimkin above joubert too. Although i prefer Dambier's style to Klimkin's i think klimkin probably should be above dambier in a clean skate for outspinning joubert.To not totally discount anybody worthy of the slighest of slightest considerations though I guess Goebel or Li could medal if one of them lands 3 quads, and only 2 of the contenders land more than 6 triples; and I guess Dambier or Klimkin have an extremely tiny chance of the bronze if Plushenko or Joubert pull out with an injury, and they get some increased notice as the top skater from their country.
Ant
At Worlds Li landed 4T, 4S, 3Lz, 3A+3T, 3T, 3Lo, 1A, and 3 S.
This was good enough for seventh place. It was Lambiel who hit two quads but no triple Axel, singled his flip and doubled his Lutz.
Buttle did a triple Axel (also 2 double Axels), but no quad.
In the GP final Li hit 4T+2T, 4S, 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3T, 3lo, 3S, 2A.
At Cup of China he went 4T+3T, 4S, 3Lz, 1 A, 3A+3T, 3Lo, 3A, 3S+2T.
I think he hit at least one quad and at least 1 triple Axel (although that is not his best jump) in every performance last year.
Li seems to have overcome the stamina problems that bothered him earlier in his career. Now many of his highlight elements come in the second half of the program.
IMO the only thing that holds him down is the judges' perception that he doesn't move his body like a European skater or a ballet dancer. He is more in the Chinese martial arts mold.
But he has been breaking out in his exhibitions. His exhibition routine last year was very spirited and humorous. Maybe he will be better able to show his personality on the ice next year.
Mathman
Yes. Very telling.
Li's performances have improved tremendously, but will the judges notice? For some reason fans (and judges) brand skaters for their perceived weakness. IMO, Li has been branded as a non performance skater. Sad because he and other branded skaters do improve.
What I will be looking for in Li's LP is his stamina for the last minute and a half. I hope he has worked on that.
Joe
Thanks for the jumping stat Mathman. It sonds like Li really has pulled it together then - maybe i was thinknig of his performances from a few years ago? Anyway i stand corrected! I heard great things about his exhibition (though i didn't see it) from last year so maybe you're right and he'll have a breakout year where he gets his choreography and interpretive skills up.
Ant
Li's problem is that he rarely can sustain his energy throughout the program. He tends to tire badly in the last minute of his FS and his jumps become sloppy or he falls.
I'd give Li a low chance to medal but a high chance to end up in the top 5. I definitely think that he'll be in the last group to skate. He usually has a great skate in the short.
Michelle just missed the podium at Worlds this year, and could easily improve enough to medal in Turin. Sasha was a clear 2nd at Worlds, even with flaws, so I think she'll medal in Turin, unless she has a total meltdown.
But, I think the Ladies from Japan will be very tough, and I think one of them will medal.
I think the medals will go to three of these ladies, who I believe will make up the top four, but who knows in what order,
IRINA
SASHA
MICHELLE
SHIZUKA
So, I think there will be at least one and possibly two medals for the US ladies.
3axel
Last edited by tripleflutz; 07-27-2005 at 01:33 PM.
My analysis exactly.
I honestly don't have a clue as to who will do what and won't until the GP series is over. What kinds of programs and how COP friendly and adjustments throughout the Fall will give one a better idea.
Regarding the US team, and based on potential only:
For ladies one can assume Michelle and Sasha only will go to Turino. I think these two have a good shot at a medal. I would not be shocked to see both on the podium. Emily Hughes? No way. Not with the international field as deep as it is. I also dispute the supposition the Irina is a lock. The Gold belongs to no one at this point in time.
I think Even and Johnny will make the team and probably Tim if he is healthy and if not I think Weiss has a chance still. I think Weir has the best chance to medal.
He did very well last year at the GP series and then he had a problem with one of the small bones under his big toe. I had the same problem and it is extremely painful. If he is healthy, I think he has a shot at a medal. I do not think Evan will repeat unless he gets a quad.
Dance B& A have a great shot at a medal if she gets her citizenship.
Pairs, not!
ITA, ITA, ITA. Any predictions I read in these threads are simply based on the last competition seen or just wishful thinking either positive or negative.
The GPs will give us a hint and definitely show who is motivated to win.
Joe
I would sure like to hope so! No backwater deals, or anything like that. (But then again, considering this is ice skating, that's pretty wishful thinking on my part.)I also dispute the supposition the Irina is a lock. The Gold belongs to no one at this point in time.
What else have we to fall back on? The GP's have not happened yet, and I wouldn't even call these "predictions" because the Event is so far away.Any predictions I read in these threads are simply based on the last competition seen or just wishful thinking either positive or negative.
Yes, the GP's may give (us) a sign. But not even that is enough to determine who's going to win (or medal, or whatever), because weird things do happen.
Even with fair judging, if Irina skates her best short program, and the long program she did at Worlds, I dont think there is anyway anyone will beat her. I have never seen Cohen do a clean long program ever, so she is out if Irina skates like that, and I havent seen Kwan do a skate to challenge that in over a year atleast. The new system suits her strengths perfectly, and the World Champion usually gets benefit of doubt in close calls anyway, and to some extent it is understandable.
That's exactly why I pick Emily. Emily is a nervy skater like her sister, though Emily has more talent than Sarah (better edges, better jumps, more power). Kimmy was hyped to the gills at Nats and couldn't even manage a medal at Junior Worlds. That medal went to Emily. Emily can take a hard fall in her program and then get right back up and move on with a smile on her face. Nothing gets to her. I'm not sure if lightning will strike twice, but Emily definitely has the nerve of a champion/spoiler. Quite frankly, Emily has more guts than Sasha and MIchelle put together. I predict Emily to do well in her GP event, make the Olympic team and medal at least.
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