Olys: Will USA medal at all?

soogar · Jul 28, 2005

Mathman said:
Soogar, what made you change your mind about Miki Ando as a promising Olympic hopeful?

I still like Miki, and I hope for her to win everything. However that Emily has something going for her that Miki doesn't : a strong federation backing her. The Japanese federation can't do for its skaters that the US federation can for its skaters. While the US men can probably hope for a bronze medal at best, the ladies event has been a US medal haul the past 2 Olympics. I also think that luck will run Emily's way. It's just a feeling I get (though I get good feelings about Carolina as well).

I just want to add my 2 cents about Li and say that the reason why Li won't medal is that the Chinese federation can't politick for him. The Canadian federation has been going out of its way to embrace COP and kiss ISU butt that with every chance the judges got , they were very kind to the Canadian men (that didn't quite work with the Canadian women, but they really didn't have good performances at Worlds).

I believe that Klimkin has an excellent shot for a bronze medal if he can get his jumps back. From what I've seen of him on the Averbukh tour, his body looks fantastic but the one triple jump that he has right now is quite inconsistent. I would say that Andrei has a better shot than Klimkin for the Russian team, however athletes always amaze me with the comebacks they can make. Klimkin has made lots of comebacks and there's no doubt that two months of intensive work can get him back to snuff.

NansXOXOX · Jul 28, 2005

soogar,

Your assessment of Emily is very interesting. What do you see as Andrei's strengths and weaknesses?

Nan

boggartlaura · Jul 28, 2005

soogar said:
. Quite frankly, Emily has more guts than Sasha and MIchelle put together. I predict Emily to do well in her GP event, make the Olympic team and medal at least.

I adore Emily, but are you saying that you expect her to medal at the Olys? Sorry, I cannot see that happening.

R.D. · Jul 28, 2005

boggartlaura said:
I adore Emily, but are you saying that you expect her to medal at the Olys? Sorry, I cannot see that happening.

Yeah...I think it's too much too soon. I mean, it COULD happen, but the odds say it's more than just a longshot.

There are only two U.S. ladies capable of medalling: Kwan and Cohen.

clonesheep · Jul 28, 2005

soogar said:
I don't see 2 American ladies on the podium (thank goodness) this time. Sasha will definitely make the podium and if there is a second American, it will be Emily Hughes on the Olympic podium. It would be something if Emily pulled an upset like her sister and won the whole thing and I think she can.

1. Emily Hughes
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Irina Slutskaya

Although an "upset" like that would be exciting, it won't happen. I have seen Emily Hughes skated this season. She is atheletic and can do some jumps but her elements are just above average. Nowhere near Sarah was 6 months before Salt Lake City.

The thing is, Emily may not even get the 3rd spot to represent the U.S. That would likely go to Kimmie Meisner.

clonesheep · Jul 28, 2005

soogar said:
I still like Miki, and I hope for her to win everything. However that Emily has something going for her that Miki doesn't : a strong federation backing her. The Japanese federation can't do for its skaters that the US federation can for its skaters.

The youngster that U.S. skating establishment has been promoting is not Emily Hughes, but Kimmie Meisner. To me, Meisner is almost guaranteed the 3rd spot to Torino.
Miki Ando does have a strong backing from Japanese Federation. She won the Japanese Nationals in 04 at a very young age, beating Arakawa and Suguri. It's unusual that the rather conservative Japanese judges award a newcomer the national championship over the veterans but they did. That's one sign. Another is that Japanese judges constantly overmark Ando in international competitions but they did not do so for the other Japanese skaters.

Mathman · Jul 28, 2005

Hi, Clonesheep (great nickname, LOL). Thanks for joining us.

Mathman

clonesheep · Jul 28, 2005

bdreampixie said:
I love Emily Hughes, but at this point she could give the skate of a lifetime and still come in behind a flawed Sasha and Michelle. Her jumps aren't really that great, she (as far as I know) has no 3/3. She has great speed and presence on ice but is still very sloppy. Plus, you have to consider that Emily would have to make the final 6 for the LP and Sasha, Irina and Michelle are great SP skaters along with Fumie, Carolina and Julia S. I really doubt she'd be able to get to the final 6.

That's very true. As I said elsewhere, chance is that Emily will not make the team in the first place. U.S. ladies have 3 spots. Kwan and Cohen are guaranteed barring injury. Kimmie Meisner is 3rd in line for now. Emily and about 6 others are competing for the 4th spot and hoping that Meisner will falter.

If I have the power to hand pick the 3rd spot, however, I may choose Katy Taylor. She is the most polished among the hopefuls and her program this season could potentially be very very good.

clonesheep · Jul 28, 2005

Mathman said:
Hi, Clonesheep (great nickname, LOL). Thanks for joining us.

Mathman

Thanks Mathman. I registered long time ago but it just occurred to me that I can post, too

Joesitz (RIP) · Jul 28, 2005

soogar said:
I just want to add my 2 cents about Li and say that the reason why Li won't medal is that the Chinese federation can't politick for him. The Canadian federation has been going out of its way to embrace COP and kiss ISU butt that with every chance the judges got , they were very kind to the Canadian men (that didn't quite work with the Canadian women, but they really didn't have good performances at Worlds).

Soogar - Are you implying that there are deals being made among the Federations? I agree if that's what you are saying but I can't prove it. Can you?

Joe

dancindiva03 · Jul 28, 2005

clonesheep said:
If I have the power to hand pick the 3rd spot, however, I may choose Katy Taylor. She is the most polished among the hopefuls and her program this season could potentially be very very good.

It would be fabulous if Katy Taylor made the Oly team! I became a huge fan of hers after seeing her for the first time at Nats last year!

euterpe · Jul 28, 2005

Here are the PCS scores Emily Hughes earned for her bronze medal at Junior Worlds:

6.29 5.96 6.29 6.21 6.21 HUGHES

Compare those to the PCS scores of the Senior Ladies at Worlds:
8.43 7.93 8.43 8.21 8.29 SLUTSKAYA
7.96 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.86 COHEN
7.68 7.18 7.39 7.39 7.46 KWAN
7.54 7.04 7.43 7.21 7.25 KOSTNER
7.50 7.07 7.36 7.25 7.29 SUGURI
7.00 6.71 6.79 6.75 6.89 POYKIO
7.07 6.68 6.79 6.75 6.71 ANDO
7.32 6.96 7.07 7.04 7.07 ARAKAWA
6.54 6.14 6.11 6.32 6.29 ROCHETTE

Emily is still a rough and unfinished skater, and it will take a couple of years on the Senior circuit to boost herself to a competitive level. Even if she makes the Olympic team, she has just about zero chance of medaling, unless most of the top ladies drop out altogether.

Mathman · Jul 29, 2005

soogar said:
I just want to add my 2 cents about Li and say that the reason why Li won't medal is that the Chinese federation can't politick for him.The Canadian federation has been going out of its way to embrace COP and kiss ISU butt that with every chance the judges got , they were very kind to the Canadian men (that didn't quite work with the Canadian women, but they really didn't have good performances at Worlds).

Here is the official position of Skate Canada about the WSF and the new judging system.

http://www.frogsonice.com/skateweb/articles/skate-canada-bashes-wsf.shtml

Here is a very brief excerpt from this long policy statement: (Be it resolved) "THAT any member of Skate Canada who, on or after May 1, 2003, is a member of the World Skating Federation or supports or endorses its activity, thereby seriously breaching the Constitution and Regulations of the ISU, shall be deemed to be a person not in good standing with Skate Canada, and in compliance with its obligations to the ISU, Skate Canada will not permit such persons (skaters, coaches, officials, volunteers) to participate in any competitions, programs or activities of Skate Canada."

It is not surprising that Skate Canada is enthusiastic about the New Judging System -- they wrote it.

As for Li -- Why can't the Chinese Federation politick for him just like all the other federations politick for their skaters? Are the Chinese in the ISU doghouse for some reason?

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP) · Jul 29, 2005

I'm not sure what is meant by politicking. If it isn't just plain old fixing an event, then what exactly is it? Does it involve judges as well as Federations? Is Switzerland, Korea, Gt Britain, Spain, Mexico included in the politicking processes? Why are some and not others involved? What are the aims of politicking?

soogar · Jul 29, 2005

Mathman said:
As for Li -- Why can't the Chinese Federation politick for him just like all the other federations politick for their skaters? Are the Chinese in the ISU doghouse for some reason?

Mathman

The Chinese Federation is very new. Right now the only thing it has going for it is men's skating and pairs. Russian and Americans have been competing in figure skating for a very long time , and the Russian team has a strong presence in all four disciplines. Americans on the other hand brought a lot of money to the sport.

There's no doubt in my mind that deals are being made in this sport. Look at the success of Tim Goebel. Tim was basically as "artless" as Li in presentation, however when Tim stood his quad jumps up , he was always in the medals. Li outjumps everyone yet he's never in the medals (even at a splatfest like Worlds).

It's a judged sport and there's no doubt that judges at the very least, have their favorites. There's always national bias in judging, and I don't doubt that judges will help out skaters from other countries if it means getting votes in return for skaters from their country. I don't really have a problem with that because for the most part I've always agreed with the judges' choices.

If Sarah Hughes was representing a nothing country in SLC, there's no doubt that she wouldn't have even MADE the final flight of skaters with that SP, let alone win the whole thing. A startling thing for me (because us Americans never see everyone skate) was when I downloaded the SP's at Euros and I was surprised at how many ladies actually had clean SP's with a 3 lutz-2 toe combination. I couldn't really distinguish places 2-8 (Irina was clearly the best).

soogar · Jul 29, 2005

NansXOXOX said:
soogar,

Your assessment of Emily is very interesting. What do you see as Andrei's strengths and weaknesses?

Nan

The big strength Andrei has is that he's not coming back from a serious injury like Klimkin and has all of his jumps. Plus Andrei passed a big hurdle in landing a quad in competition. I also think that because Andrei is younger than Klimkin, the Russian fed might want to send Andrei to the Olympics to give him experience for 2010.

My personal feeling is that while Andrei is a very hard working skater, I don't get the champion vibes from him. Klimkin might be inconsistent, but he has more of a presence on the ice and takes the risk and does the big jumps.

As for all the folks saying Kimmie will get the 3rd spot on the team, all I can say is that 3rd spot is up for grabs and there's no guarantee who will get this spot. All I can say is that there were a lot of skaters with more hype than Sarah Hughes, yet Sarah is the OGM and not these other skaters. I see Emily slipping in there unheralded for that 3rd spot. I also think that Emily is a much better skater than Kimmie. Kimmie is still immature and there's no telling what growth is going to do to her jumps. Emily is already a big girl who has triple jumps. Emily will only get more consistent with her jumps as she gets used to her size. Plus there's always Bebe (though Bebe is going to have to do a lot better internationally) and Jenny.

soogar · Jul 29, 2005

Joesitz said:
I'm not sure what is meant by politicking. If it isn't just plain old fixing an event, then what exactly is it? Does it involve judges as well as Federations? Is Switzerland, Korea, Gt Britain, Spain, Mexico included in the politicking processes? Why are some and not others involved? What are the aims of politicking?

Well politicking is like business, older Federations like US and Russia have been in the game longer than Mexico and China, therefore there are a lot of relationships that have been formed throughout the years. Newer federations probably align themselves with an established federation to help their skaters out. Of course, the skaters have to do well. All this backdoor dealing etc isn't going to work if everyone falls on their face.

It happens in the US as well. I can say for a fact that skaters change clubs so they can have better results at Nationals. The same thing goes for coaches as well. A more established coach can politick with the judges (as Carlo allegedly did for Robin Cousins in 1980) because they become friends over the years.

NansXOXOX · Jul 29, 2005

soogar said:
The big strength Andrei has is that he's not coming back from a serious injury like Klimkin and has all of his jumps. Plus Andrei passed a big hurdle in landing a quad in competition. I also think that because Andrei is younger than Klimkin, the Russian fed might want to send Andrei to the Olympics to give him experience for 2010.

My personal feeling is that while Andrei is a very hard working skater, I don't get the champion vibes from him. Klimkin might be inconsistent, but he has more of a presence on the ice and takes the risk and does the big jumps.

Thank you for sharing your insight, soogar. I agree with your opinion of Andrei's presence on the ice. I think he is a very talented young man, but he lacks the confidence to convince others how good he is. He needs to just get out there and "sell" himself. If he wants to run with the big dogs, he has to come off the porch growling!

Nan

tripleflutz · Jul 29, 2005

Kimmie and Emily are in their mid teens, and I think how well they handle the growth spurts will decide how well they skate this comming season. They're both very good, but I think gaining weight and filling out will turn out to be more of an issue for them at this stage, than refining they're skating skills. I don't expect to see the real Kimmie or Emily until they're 18. Sarah was lucky that she stayed slender until her Olympic year was past, but all kids are different.

tripleflutz

Joesitz (RIP) · Jul 30, 2005

I'm not convinced, Soogar, but I'll look in the future for politicking. If you are correct, it is definitely an unfair sport. Of course, any cheating can only take place in close races so it wont be rampant.

Also there is the theory of the 'held-up' scenario. Usually, the fan sees their favorite's competitor as being held up.

Was Evgeni held up in the SP in SLC?

Joe

Olys: Will USA medal at all?

soogar

NansXOXOX

boggartlaura

R.D.

clonesheep

clonesheep

Mathman

clonesheep

clonesheep

Joesitz (RIP)

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

euterpe

Mathman

Joesitz (RIP)

soogar

soogar

soogar

NansXOXOX

tripleflutz

Joesitz (RIP)

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