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Thread: Campbell's International FS Classic

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    Keepin' it real gsk8's Avatar
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    Campbell's International FS Classic

    Ladies, Men (Free Skating Only)
    October 8, 2005
    St Paul, Minnesota

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    What Would You Like To See At This Competition?

    Not a prediction thread

    I'd like to see:

    Arakawa - get complete control of the ice and repeat her Dortmund performance.

    Cohen - to show she has a 3x3 of any kind and the Morosov choreo

    Kwan - to show she has a 3x3 of any kind, and the TT choreo.

    Kimmie - a little more maturity and the 3A.

    (I'm not sure of others who are doing this thing)

    Irina - a real spiral.

    I have no idea who else is in this thing.

    Johnny - a quad attempt and the new TT choreo

    Evan - a solid 3A3whatver combo, and the new choreo.

    Tim - Back to the quad(s) I hope and that new TT Musgorvsky.

    Plush (is he coming?) Back in top form.

    Joubert - a cooler skate and a revialized Brian.

    I have no ideal who else is scheduled for this and I don't know why Stephane was not invited.

    Joe

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    I'd like to see:

    Arakawa - get complete control of the ice and repeat her Dortmund performance.

    Cohen - to show she has a 3x3 of any kind and the Morosov choreo

    Kwan - to show she has a 3x3 of any kind, and the TT choreo.

    Kimmie - a little more maturity and the 3A.

    (I'm not sure of others who are doing this thing)

    Irina - a real spiral.
    I like to see this too. However I think Irina is basically ok for now. A repeat of her Worlds performance would win any competition given nobody else has the skate of their lives.

    JMO.

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    I think i read on FSU that Plushy canceled Cheesefests in US and Japan...first we'll see him, I think, is Cup of Russia.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I will be most interested to see Irina's performance. Everything will be stacked against her. It is early in the season (Irina typically tends to peak much later). It follows directly on the heels of the Japanese event, forcing Irina to face travel woes, jet lag, loss of practice time, etc., which her main competitors won't. It's in the U.S., where the hometown crowd will be shouting themselves hoarse for Michelle and Sasha, especially Michelle.

    If despite these handicaps Irina is able to pull off a decisive victory, then I think it's curtains for the other ladies' Olympic hopes.

    On the other hand, if Irina falters and lets the American and Japanese ladies off the hook, then Let the Games Begin!

    Mathman
    Last edited by Mathman; 09-11-2005 at 05:20 PM.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    If despite these handicaps Irina is able to pull off a decisive victory, then I think it's curtains for the other ladies' Olympic hopes.
    I'm not looking at this competition as the definitive proof for the Olys but as you say Irina does have the most handicap in making an appearance in the middle of the United States and soon after being in Japan's top city.

    It is based on the CoP, isn't it? If Irina wins I think the other gals should take a lesson in what it means to be a competitor. They must skate their hearts out in the GPs or forever forget the Olys.

    Joe

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz

    It is based on the CoP, isn't it? If Irina wins I think the other gals should take a lesson in what it means to be a competitor. They must skate their hearts out in the GPs or forever forget the Olys.

    Joe
    I agree with your first point.

    However, the second point- at the same time, you don't want to peak too early in the season. For proof, just look at Cohen during the 2004 season.

    (IMO) You want to slowly build up until you get to the big one. It's natural to have off-nights along the way. Just don't have them during the Olys or the Worlds!

    Irina I thought had a great approach to last year. She had an off-night during Europeans (and was still able to win) and then peaked at worlds. In a non-Oly year there is no better time to peak.

    Yes, you want to do well, but I think the step-up approach tends to yield the best results. I expect veterans like Kwan and Slutskaya to take this route. Maybe Cohen has enough experience to try this as well.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I don't think Irina built up slowly last year to peak at worlds. Yes, she gave a terrific skate when it counted most. But the fact is, she won every event she entered last year, both early and late.

    That's the way to go, IMHO. Why hold back? I think you only trick yourself if you keep saying, well, I won't give it my all in the first part of the season, then miraculously I will get suddenly start skating better in January.

    Mathman

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I don't think Irina built up slowly last year to peak at worlds. Yes, she gave a terrific skate when it counted most. But the fact is, she won every event she entered last year, both early and late.

    That's the way to go, IMHO. Why hold back? I think you only trick yourself if you keep saying, well, I won't give it my all in the first part of the season, then miraculously I will get suddenly start skating better in January.

    Mathman
    ITA MM - I can't see a tennis player not at his best in any competition; or a baseball player holding back until the World Series or a Diver not caring about how he enters the water. holding back....duh!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz
    ITA MM - I can't see a tennis player not at his best in any competition; or a baseball player holding back until the World Series or a Diver not caring about how he enters the water. holding back....duh!
    Actually it may sound ridiculous but I actually believe there is a slight truth to the "holding back" phenomenon. I can't quote the source unfortunately but I heard that some NBA players particularly "coast" through the regular season until they get to the end (where playoff rankings matter). I don't know if the same is true for other team sports.

    But in skating the mentality seems to be different IMO. Have you ever seen a skater TRULY give it her all in a pro-am or GP event? I really think that if you were objective and compared their performances in GP to the ones in major competitions, you'd have to say no. (Or you may discover that the performance is worse, which means that they felt under pressure. This actually proves my point as well, because they feel it's more important to them).

    Really, think about it. Would you look at a pro-am or the Worlds the same way? Would you approach an NFL pre-season game and the conference finals the same way? A tennis pro-am and Wimbledon the same way? NO!

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    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I will be most interested to see Irina's performance. Everything will be stacked against her. It is early in the season (Irina typically tends to peak much later). It follows directly on the heels of the Japanese event, forcing Irina to face travel woes, jet lag, loss of practice time, etc., which her main competitors won't. It's in the U.S., where the hometown crowd will be shouting themselves hoarse for Michelle and Sasha, especially Michelle.

    If despite these handicaps Irina is able to pull off a decisive victory, then I think it's curtains for the other ladies' Olympic hopes.

    On the other hand, if Irina falters and lets the American and Japanese ladies off the hook, then Let the Games Begin!

    Mathman
    I'd go the other way actually, i think if Irina puts in a lights out performance with 6 or 7 triples this early in the season i'd be concered about her peaking too early and not being able to keep that standard up through to the Olympics.

    I would expect this to be a good dress rehearsal for the season for most people with a fair few falls/popped jumps from everyone. I forget is Kimmie Skating here? I wouldn't be surprised if she won the whole thing with the others faltering on their jumps.

    Ant

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    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman
    I don't think Irina built up slowly last year to peak at worlds. Yes, she gave a terrific skate when it counted most. But the fact is, she won every event she entered last year, both early and late.

    That's the way to go, IMHO. Why hold back? I think you only trick yourself if you keep saying, well, I won't give it my all in the first part of the season, then miraculously I will get suddenly start skating better in January.

    Mathman
    That is totally true but as the season progresses you want your performances to get better not worse. Going al out at the start of the season will usually produce a lesser skate than going all out at the end because you've done your programs in front of an audience so much more than at the start. You've done so many more run throughs that its totally engrained etc etc.

    I don't think the strategy of the top girls is to keep something back for the Olys rather to plan their training so that when they give their all at various parts of the season they peak for the right event which for most skaters is their national Championships and then Olys/Worlds.

    Ant

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    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Dog
    Actually it may sound ridiculous but I actually believe there is a slight truth to the "holding back" phenomenon. I can't quote the source unfortunately but I heard that some NBA players particularly "coast" through the regular season until they get to the end (where playoff rankings matter). I don't know if the same is true for other team sports.

    But in skating the mentality seems to be different IMO. Have you ever seen a skater TRULY give it her all in a pro-am or GP event? I really think that if you were objective and compared their performances in GP to the ones in major competitions, you'd have to say no. (Or you may discover that the performance is worse, which means that they felt under pressure. This actually proves my point as well, because they feel it's more important to them).

    Really, think about it. Would you look at a pro-am or the Worlds the same way? Would you approach an NFL pre-season game and the conference finals the same way? A tennis pro-am and Wimbledon the same way? NO!
    Yep - i'd say Michelle in the 95/96 season (which included pro-ams) and Tara in the 96/97 season. IIRC Michelle hit the 3/3 in every competition she entered in the 95/96 season except worlds where she had the flu and was sick as a dog. Tara the next season did the same thing and came out all guns blazing for the whole season long. I think skaters renowned for their jumping have also had seasons like that - Bonaly had seasons where she was attempting quads in the first GPs of the season.

    Yagudin also has put down 8 triple and quad programs early in the season.

    Ant

  14. #14
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    The only validity I would give to the 'holding back' theory is when a skater draws numero uno to skate. The skater knows instinctively what is the best route to a clean routine (no falls, no bobbles). Without knowing what the other skaters will actually do or try to do, the first skater to skate must decide whether or not to go all out. The decision is with the skater.

    On the other hand, skaters are human, and if they have a bad day on the ice, it may well be because of an injury that didn't heal or just plain malaise. It happens to everyone in life. Bad hair day!

    BTW, Irina is doing just fine as far as we know.

    Joe

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    I think the "peaking" idea is not uncommon in skating. I recall hearing on an ABC fluff piece that Yags worked on the idea of "peaking at the right time" -- Worlds (or Olys), whereas I heard somewhere that Plush is the "give it all you've got, all the time" type. Plushy always beat Yags at Russian Nats, but Yags beat Plushy at Worlds and Olys four out of five times. Also, has anyone noticed that Sasha has done better at Worlds the years she has not been so dominant on the GP circuit (losing the GPF to Suguri just before the '04 Worlds, and out of the GP due to injury before the '05 Worlds)?

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