What Do You Want to See at Worlds... Dance

Since today was the World's dress-rehearsal show at Canton, I hope someone who was there will share some news of how the teams looked / did. Of course , I'm most deperate for word of V/M , considering the events at 4cc , but it would be nice to know all four teams look strong and prepared. Anyone heard anything ?

Considering W/P topped both D/W (by 2 full points) and V/W in the TES at the 4CC SD and finished a very respectable 3rd in the first phase of the competition with a score rivaling that of Top 2 at the Europeans, it feels a little absurd that someone is suggesting they would be fighting for 11th at Worlds. That prediction deserves a gigantic

Key for W/P is to ride the momentum of their fabulous SD, which has received almost universally positive reviews from almost everyone within the Ice Dance circle. If they can do that, they can again find themselves in 3rd after the SD. I do not think it is out of question for them to defeat P/B and B/S in the SD however, can they hold it together in the FD, that would be the key question.

The central paradox/irony is that the goals of C/P and W/P almost seem to be reversed from what I expect them to be

C/P's stated goal at the beginning of the season was to be in the final group. However, I've largely found their strength (career wise) to be in the FD. I thought it was more plausible for them to land in the top five overall as opposed to getting their after the first round. So far, their international competitions affirm this (4CC, GPF, SC). Whereas W/P have largely stuck around due to the strength of their SD and found themselves dropping in the FD (SA, GPF, 4CC w/ NHK sorta in the middle, not losing their position on the podium but behind the Shibs in the FD). The one consistent improvement they've been making is that they're not losing the ground they gain on base value.

Normally, I wouldn't cite doing the qualifier as a particular advantage for anyone: particular teams that have to travel a long way, but I think there's a benefit here for W/P. They'll be able to do their FD in front of international judges but without really worrying about position - they should be fine getting to the SD, and I believe the groupings for the SD are based on international ranking.

ImaginaryPogue said:

Normally, I wouldn't cite doing the qualifier as a particular advantage for anyone: particular teams that have to travel a long way, but I think there's a benefit here for W/P. They'll be able to do their FD in front of international judges but without really worrying about position - they should be fine getting to the SD, and I believe the groupings for the SD are based on international ranking.

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Doing the Qualifying Round should be a positive for Weaver/Poje because their FD appeared to be their nemesis so far in the season. At the 4CC, they had a very comfortable lead over both Shibutanis and Crone/Poirier to a point that if they had a clean but otherwise average FD, they would have ended up beating both of them, on the strength of the SD. Having one more chance to present your FD in a real competition environment in front of ISU judges - merely days before the real event - if I were them, I would beg to do it. Plus, the teams doing the QR in Ice Dance are nothing to write home about, no Americans, French or Russian, not even the Reeds (Japan). They are left skating against some very lowly rank Ice Dance teams, which means the pressure will be minimal and a good skate can boost their confidence when they have to actually skate the real FD portion of the event, hopefully after a strong SD that positions them well into the FD.

As for the SD draw, the Top 10 World Ranking teams entered should be randomly divided among the last two groups to skate. W/P are ranked 6th according to the ISU ranking, therefore, they will be skating in either the final group or the before last group. So just because they had to do QR will not make them having to skate very early during the SD. On the other hand, Shibutani are really lucky that Faiella/Scali will not be there because if the Italians showed up, it would have bumped the 2nd American team out of Top 10 list and therefore, unable to skate their SD in the last 2 groups. Nobody likes to skate early, things get a little better under CoP vs. 6.0 system but it's Ice Dance, psychologically, you wonder if judges will hold marks back, especially the PCS.

The rest just depends on how each team skate. Ice is slippery, a miss here or there could really change the ranking. Aside from D/W and V/M, who can afford minor errors and still keep their top spots, the French and Russians will be hard pressed to get on the podium with errors in their skate. Competition from the North American teams will be tremendous. Granted, it's hard to see a North American sweep in Ice Dance and I believe Pechalat/Bourzat are the favorites for a spot on the podium but if they falter, which has happened many times before, many of the teams ranked right below them could sneak it and take that spot. Historically, World Championship is where judges have the confidence to let changes happen - meaning, if they were reticent about your PCS throughout the season due to your reputation, this is the time you can expect big scores if you really have good materials. This should benefit a number of upcoming teams who until this point, have been held back, due to being relatively new. We shall see.

wallylutz said:

Considering W/P topped both D/W (by 2 full points) and V/W in the TES at the 4CC SD and finished a very respectable 3rd in the first phase of the competition with a score rivaling that of Top 2 at the Europeans, it feels a little absurd that someone is suggesting they would be fighting for 11th at Worlds. That prediction deserves a gigantic

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Not trying to be "absurd"--just venturing a guess about what I think might happen at this competition. I didn't realize sharing a thought that others might disagree with or not like was against the rules--good to know.

beabstress said:

Not trying to be "absurd"--just venturing a guess about what I think might happen at this competition. I didn't realize sharing a thought that others might disagree with or not like was against the rules--good to know.

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Join the Club! Making a suggestion will get you hit by the fans of the Rules.

I'm hoping for gold for Davis & White!

Of course, any wish is fine in a "What do you want to see thread". If you want to see W&P in 11th or 20th for that matter, beabstress, that would be fine, from a rules point of view. But it isn't likely, and when you wish for something unlikely people will tell you it's not likely.. which is also not against the rules.

OTOH, the rules specifically prohibit posters from insulting you, whatever you post.

I believe Joesitz is referring to people who believe ISU rules should be followed in fairness for all skaters as opposed to those who believe otherwise.

wallylutz said:

Considering W/P topped both D/W (by 2 full points) and V/W in the TES at the 4CC SD and finished a very respectable 3rd in the first phase of the competition with a score rivaling that of Top 2 at the Europeans, it feels a little absurd that someone is suggesting they would be fighting for 11th at Worlds. That prediction deserves a gigantic

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4CC and European scores are often quite inflated, so I would take W/P's 4CC SD TES with a grain of salt. W/P's FD has been their Achilles heel all season, and it is the FD that determines final placement.

chuckm said:

4CC and European scores are often quite inflated, so I would take W/P's 4CC SD TES with a grain of salt. W/P's FD has been their Achilles heel all season, and it is the FD that determines final placement.

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Actually, W/P have been getting great reviews on their SD all season. I have heard almost no negative comments about it. Given that programs generally improve over the season, I'm not sure any salt is necessary here. W/P had a great SD and FD skate at Nationals. Many in the audience thought W/P should have won. Internationally, W/P have struggled with consistency and having a clean program in the FD. Some of this has been one or the other member of the team making a mistake or mental error or being nervous, but at 4CC it was because they got tangled in her skirt and lost the spin element entirely. If that had not happened, they would have been 2nd at 4CC. It is entirely possible, I'd say even likely, that W/P could be in the final flight after the SD with a good skate. If they have a clean skate like Nationals, or even better, for the FD, then they could potentially hold their position in the top 5. They'd only drop 6 or 7 places in the FD if they had an absolute disaster of a FD. While anything's possible, that would be rather absurd at this point in the season. And I don't agree that the FD determines the final placement. It's the combination of both SD and FD that determines the final placement, and having a great SD is very helpful in getting into a great start order for the FD. And I think the start position for FD does matter to a certain extent.

In their FD, W/P did lose their spin when his foot got caught in her skirt. But they also blew a lift, and that had nothing to do with the first mistake.

chuckm said:

4CC and European scores are often quite inflated, so I would take W/P's 4CC SD TES with a grain of salt. W/P's FD has been their Achilles heel all season, and it is the FD that determines final placement.

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Even if the 4CC and European scores were inflated, the fact that they scored higher than the reigning Olympic&World Gold and Silver Medalists at the same competition speaks volume about the potential, since it would mean after similar inflation is applied, they still scored higher. Plus if 4CC and Europeans are similarly inflated, then it stands to reason they are fairly comparable to each other, making the scores between the two competitions somewhat comparable although not exactly. Let's not forget, W/P also defeat Bobrova/Soloviev at the SD during GPF even though W/P had mistakes in their SD. TES tends to be a more stable score than PCS. The fact that their strength came from TES, not PCS, is an encouraging sign because should the judges bump their PCS up at the end of the season, as they often do with new teams who show promise, that's when they can turn heads.

As for FD determines the final placement, that's simply not true. Where did you get that idea? It's always a combination of the different phases of the competition in Figure Skating that determines the winner and the SD/SP sets you for the long, therefore, are often considered quite important even though they count for less marks. D/W won the FD at last year's World but lost the Championship title to V/M. Similarly, V/M won the FD at the 2008 World Championship, but finished 2nd overall.

And Domnina / Shabalin lost the FD and the OD at 2010 Europeans and yet won (due to winning the CD by a great deal).

I just can't get into the Winner of the Points takes the Gold Medal in Figure Skating. There is so much to the Sport which has no numerical value. Without going into details, I can't abide by scores from one Panel as being equal to the scores of another Panel. Personal Bests are in the mind of the beholder, and do not need points. It's a gimmick to butch up the sport.

However, there are good points in CoP which should be retained, and maybe combined with the good points of the 6.0. In other words, I would like to see a revision of some strange items in CoP.

Back on Ice Dance. I'd like to see if V/M can make me believe they can get the rhythm of the Samba.

wallylutz said:

Even if the 4CC and European scores were inflated, the fact that they scored higher than the reigning Olympic&World Gold and Silver Medalists at the same competition speaks volume about the potential, since it would mean after similar inflation is applied, they still scored higher. Plus if 4CC and Europeans are similarly inflated, then it stands to reason they are fairly comparable to each other, making the scores between the two competitions somewhat comparable although not exactly. Let's not forget, W/P also defeat Bobrova/Soloviev at the SD during GPF even though W/P had mistakes in their SD. TES tends to be a more stable score than PCS. The fact that their strength came from TES, not PCS, is an encouraging sign because should the judges bump their PCS up at the end of the season, as they often do with new teams who show promise, that's when they can turn heads.

As for FD determines the final placement, that's simply not true. Where did you get that idea? It's always a combination of the different phases of the competition in Figure Skating that determines the winner and the SD/SP sets you for the long, therefore, are often considered quite important even though they count for less marks. D/W won the FD at last year's World but lost the Championship title to V/M. Similarly, V/M won the FD at the 2008 World Championship, but finished 2nd overall.

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They never scored higher than D&W and V&M. Scoring higher in one program in TES is not even close to scoring higher when PCS determines the bulk of the scores. And that was with D&W making a mistake and V&M in only their 1st event this season. As others have said too the SD is W&P's strength but their FD has been mediocre most of the season and they have dropped backwards all season in the FD.

I dont think they will come 11th at Worlds but I think they will be in the low part of the top 10 more likely than top 5. Weaver & Poje have never even beaten Crone & Poirier, and C&P probably wont be top 5 at Worlds this year. Now that Failla & Scali have withdrawn it is still fairly likely W&P will end up only 8th or 9th. The top 4 from Europeans and the top 3 from Four Continents plus V&M (if they skate) would all seem fairly likely to beat them. And atleast half of those are certain to beat them.

Lastly W&P are not a "new team". This season is their 5th on the senior scene and their first senior Worlds was way back in 2007. There are alot of newer teams than them who are expected to place above them at Worlds. As for the PCS bump more likely after blowing a big chance to make a move upwards at 4CCs they have done nothing to gain any momentum with the judges going into Worlds.

ImaginaryPogue said:

I believe Joesitz is referring to people who believe ISU rules should be followed in fairness for all skaters as opposed to those who believe otherwise.

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"In fairness" I think Joe is referring to people who never question whether the rules are good rules, as opposed to those who follow the lead of the "powers that be" as a matter of course.

(Beabstress' complaint is altogether different, of course. I second Dorix P's response.)

Of course, I assume that when trying to project what any team's chances are, we're thinking of the teams all having good clean skates..(ice is slippery, but there's no predicting when that will play a part ). And of course, this is a wish thread ,so as doris said ,anyone can wish anything they want..

That said, I know I usually wind up letting my idea of what I think is likely to temper my wishes.

So, pangtongfan.. If 9-10 are your wishes for W/P , that's one thing, but you seem to be trying to make a rational case for a prediction. If so, I don't know why you think W/P should only expect to finish behind the entire 4CC podium and the European top 4.

They placed ahead of I/K at NHK , and though they haven't met K/K yet , those two SD's are easy to compare from a fan's PoV , both being waltz/quickstep..and I don't think there's much doubt that W/P's is superior , if we're being entirely objective.

There's not much point in bringing up their secondary mistakes at 4CC , since even with those mistakes, if they had not lost the spin, they would have had the silver medal.I agree 5th is probably the very best they could achieve ( and why wouldn't they then make that their goal ?) but they are very competitive with K/K, C/P,S/S, I/K , H/Z ( in skill and material )..it would have to be very bad luck to finish behind all of them.

I don't wish bad luck on any of them , but I wish for a finish closer to 5 than to 10 for W/P. And I also think it's reasonably possible.

Weaver & Poje have never beaten Virtue & Moir, Davis & White, Pechalat & Bourzat, Bobrova & Soloviev, Kerr & Kerr,or even Croner & Poirier in any head to head competition. They were beaten by the Shibutanis in 2 of 3 head competitions, and havent beaten them in a free dance all season. There is no logical reason whatsoever to assume they are "likely" to beat any of those teams. The Kerrs skating at they did at Europeans would easily beat W&P from Four Continents, so again no indication of W&P moving ahead. I&K are a bit more unknown but I&K's free dance at Europeans was far stronger than any W&P have done this season, and they are a younger team improving quickly. So 8th or 9th is their most likely finish. Of course it is possible they could finish a couple spots higher but also possible they could finish lower if they make mistakes (which they are prone too).

I never said I wished for a certain position for them. I am Canadian so I would like to see them do as well as possible. However it is foolish to say my prediction of a 8th or 9th as the most likely result or that a top 5 is more likely is out of line. Crone & Poirier are clearly above W&P consistently and even they are arguably not likely to make the top 5 at Worlds if V&M skate. That doesnt mean I have a problem with their aiming for that result.