1992 Olympics- LADIES

Only again I was bored ( IK I need to find a habit or something), so I spend watching the video of the top 6 ladies in the OP and their LP. I started to wonder if all the ladies had gone clean would have Tonya been in First after the OP? Could have Midori won? Could have Kristi's Artistic ability taken her to the top. Or could have Nancy, Surya, or even Laetitia won a medal? :think: What do you guys think.

A fun thread! You ask a great question that I can't answer, but I'll be eagerly awaiting the responses of others.

(My gut feeling is that given a clean SP and LP from everyone, Midori might have pulled it off. She came pretty close, with that triple Axel.)

The gold would have gone to Midori IMO. Actually I would be shocked if it didnt. If Harding had her triple axel working then the silver would be a close call between her and Yamaguchi both clean. Without the triple axel even a clean Harding would have lost to a hypothetically clean Kerrigan. Of course a clean Kerrigan is a pointless hypothetical, but a clean Harding in the shape she was in in Albertville (let alone landing the triple axel) also is. Bonaly would have had no chance of a medal with all skating cleanly, in fact she would have been lucky to beat out Chen and Chouinard for 5th in that scenario. Heck I am not sure if a clean Bonaly could have medalled even with all the mistakes Yamaguchi, Ito, Kerrigan, and Harding made. And Hubert would have been down in 8th, 9th, or maybe more like 11th or 12th with everyone skating cleanly. She was only in the final flight since she had a great short after many others had screwed up, and the judges gave her inflated scores and a place in the final flight as a home country courtesy over someone like Sato who deserved it far more. And even had she done a clean long program after the splatfest the event was the best she could have done would still be only 6th place.

jovani2293 said:

Only again I was bored ( IK I need to find a habit or something), so I spend watching the video of the top 6 ladies in the OP and their LP. I started to wonder if all the ladies had gone clean would have Tonya been in First after the OP? Could have Midori won? Could have Kristi's Artistic ability taken her to the top. Or could have Nancy, Surya, or even Laetitia won a medal? :think: What do you guys think.

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IMO
Tonya decided to include the triple axel in the OP, while Midori decided to go for the Lutz. If all of them were clean Tonya would have been first, while Midori without her strong point, would have been placed third or even fourth, after Yamaguchi and Kerrigan.
A clean LP by Tonya with Midori fourth would lead to Harding's victory. Midori with two triple axels would have certainly won the LP, but not the event, because Tonya will probably beat Kristi and be placed second in the LP.
When Tonya was clean (1991 Skate America) the judges rewarded her also with high second marks - her OP that year was absolutely not bad artistically speaking.
Unfortunately against Tonya's skating abilities there are many prejudices, obviously based on her persona. Her behaviour was surely bad, but that doesn't change my estimation of her as a skater.

It's difficult for me to form an opinion of Tonya, as you say, gio. Even leaving aside the awful thing she was implicated in, there is the issue of her less-than-perfect work ethic. When she was on, she was amazing--heaps of natural talent, and, as you say, pretty decent artistic delivery. But if you compare her with Midori, you can see how much more diligent Ito was in her training. Harding's weight fluctuated because she probably went off her diet, and her jumps came and went as I recall. She was already sliding in 1994 before Nationals. By comparison, Midori worked like a demon, and the only thing that ever slowed her down was injury. My tendency is to feel a bit cooler about skaters who seem to coast on their talent, because I don't feel I can completely trust them. I felt that way about Nicole Bobek also. Whereas someone like Lysacek, who has far less natural talent but who works every iota of it with all the strength he has, appeals to me tremendously. (I'm fine with talented skaters who work hard but are head cases, like Alissa Czisny. They're frustrating, but if they don't give up, I don't give up.)

Anyway, all this is to say that Harding wasn't infallible by 1994, even without her walk on the dark side. My prejudice against her actual skating stems from that, and when we imagine her skating a clean program for the sake of this thread, we're giving her more possibility than I think she had by then, unlike Kristi and Midori. Those two were capable of clean short and long programs with great content.

LOL a clean Midori placed 4th in the Olympic short program. Sorry but just no, that is insane. A clean Ito would NEVER be placed below Kerrigan in any program, even without the triple axel. Kerrigan wasnt even a big name in the sport back then really.

I cant believe anyone thinks the judges would ever place a clean Ito out of gold medal contention after the short in Albertville. Heck I bet she could have done a triple toe-double toe combo and they still would have kept her atleast 3rd even if all of Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, and Harding (and everyone else) gone clean.

For those who think otherwise though just look up the marks yourself which are easily accessible on the web. As it was Ito's marks for the short program show how well she would have done in the short even with the triple lutz, had she not fallen. Her mistake was a required .5 deduction minimum under 92 rules. You even add the .5 to her technical scores, ignoring the addional points she probably gains on the 2nd mark without the disruption, and she blows away Kerrigan on every judge. The scores with the deduction also indicate she probably would have beaten Yamaguchi in the short without the fall on the triple lutz too. Her required elements scores would have been higher without the .5 deduction, the 1st mark is the tiebreaker in the short and not the 2nd, and her presentation marks were quite good considering the major mistake too. Meanwhile Harding fell on the triple axel combination and 0 of the 9 judges put her ahead of Ito who fell on the triple lutz, so scratch the idea Harding would have beaten Ito in the short if they both had gone clean, even with Harding doing the harder jump.

Ito btw missed coming 3rd in the short program over Surya Bonaly (who skated clean) by only 1 judge. Had she placed 3rd in the short she would have had a shot at the gold in the long even with the fall.

Had they all gone clean in the short:

1. Ito probably, maybe Yamaguchi (obviously if Ito does the triple axel her for sure, but she probably didnt even need it to win the short)
2. Yamaguchi probably, maybe Harding with the triple axel
3. Harding with the triple axel, Kerrigan otherwise
4. Kerrigan, Harding if she only did the triple lutz

I posted this yesterday but for some reason it didn't go through.

If everyone was clean, Ito would be first. Her technical mark in the LP was higher than Kristi's (even when she had a fall, and doubled her lutz) There was no way anyone can place higher at that point.

OP
1. Ito (even with the triple lutz)
2. Harding (with the triple axel)
3. Yamaguchi

LP
1. Ito (if she was clean, she could win the men. Triple lutz-triple toe, and triple axel-triple toe combo)
2. Harding (she beat Yamaguchi a few times she landed the triple axels leading to the Olympics)
3. Yamaguchi

Final outcome
1. Ito
2. Harding
3. Yamaguchi

Back then the triple axel had a huge weight in the judgement of programs. IMO Tonya with the axel in the OP would have been first. Everybody free to disagree.

And she also did a double axel at the very end of the program.

Fine, but there is no way Ito was going to be put below Kerrigan in the short going clean (which your hypothetical of Harding winning overall was based upon, Ito being 4th in short). The math of the scores alone proves this anyway, add .5 to Ito's technical marks (the required deduction then) and she blows away Kerrigan on every judges card except the batty British judge.

I'm just seeing this thread for the first time, and I HAVE to respond! The 1992 Olympics were among my all-time favorites, especially the women's competition.

In my view, had Midori Ito skated two clean programs (one triple axel in the short, two triple axels in the long) she would have won the gold medal by a unanamious judges decision. Her artistry had improved to the point where she wasn't "just" a jumper. She presented herself very well and had a charming ice personality. And, boy, could she jump!!! Ito was the favorite, as the school figures, which were the weakest part of her skating, were no longer part of the competition.

Assuming that Midori skated clean and won, I would have placed Kristi Yamaguchi second, assuming that she (Kristi) also skated two clean programs. She did not have a triple axel, but she had artistry and had a strong triple lutz/triple toe combination jump. Kristi won her 1991 World title with help from Ito, who had a disastrous short program and skated the long program with back and shoulder injuries.

Assuming that Ito and Yamaguchi finished 1-2, that leaves the bronze to either Nancy Kerrigan or Tonya Harding. Had Harding skated cleanly, I believe she would have finished 3rd. Even with a triple axel, she did not have the artistry Yamaguchi had, and Harding arrived late at Albertville and wasn't properly prepared to compete.

Kerrigan could have skated clean programs and probably would have finished fourth, as she did not have a triple axel. Actually, it could have been a real tight call between Harding/Kerrigan.

The one thing I'd like to question is how many triple axels Harding would or could have done. I don't recall her doing even two per competition (one in the short and one in the long). I certainly don't remember her ever doing one in the short and two in the long. Even Ito didn't do that, as I recall. (Mao Asada was the first to do three triple axels, wasn't she? Certainly in the Olympics.) So a what-if scenario where Harding skated two clean programs might mean one triple axel done cleanly, plus all the other clean jumps as well. How would that have ranked her? I don't know, but I'd say third or fourth, no higher.

Olympia said:

The one thing I'd like to question is how many triple axels Harding would or could have done. I don't recall her doing even two per competition (one in the short and one in the long). I certainly don't remember her ever doing one in the short and two in the long. Even Ito didn't do that, as I recall. (Mao Asada was the first to do three triple axels, wasn't she? Certainly in the Olympics.) So a what-if scenario where Harding skated two clean programs might mean one triple axel done cleanly, plus all the other clean jumps as well. How would that have ranked her? I don't know, but I'd say third or fourth, no higher.

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What a fun topic! Olympia, didn't Tonya do one in SP and another in LP at "91 Skate America? Anyway my dream match of the early 90s is one where the girls bring on the following performances:

Midori
'91 NHK SP (Perfect 3axel/2toe) 5.9/5.8
'89 NHK LP (Amazing skate to Sheherezade) 6.0/5.8

Kristi
'91 Worlds SP 5.8/5.9
'92 Nationals 5.8/5.9


Tonya
'87 NHK SP (The world's first? 3lz/2lp, and you can see she wasn't just about the jumps!) 5.8/5.7

'91 Nationals LP. 5.9/5.7

To this date I still love this era of ladies skating the best!

Speaking of Midori, do you know that Midori has recently competed at a competition? I haven't seen a thread for this which surprises me.

http://youtu.be/iUljJwPaJKo

Midori, age 41, at Obertsdorf. She places second. If she comes back next year, she just might start dominating the adult circuit.