What if there were a Kwanless World
Just to flesh out Skate Sandee's point a little more. Let's try imagining a world with no Kwan in it:
The quotes are Skate Sandee's.
94 - Kwan's first senior Worlds. There were only 2 spots for USA.
What were the results?
Kwan - 8th
Bobek - fails to qualify
If the third place US skater were here instead of Kwan, US would have only 1 skater for 1995. Instead, there were 2. I think the 3rd place skater would have been Elaine Zayak, who didn't have either the flip or the lutz. However, she landed all she had at Nats. I think she would have been out of top 10 at worlds.
95 - On the strength of Kwan's sole achivement in 94, there are two spots again. The results?
Bobek - 3rd
Kwan - 4th
With no Kwan, it is possible there would still have been 3 skaters for the next year. But it is unclear how the 3rd place US lady, whom I don't remember at this point would have done.
96 - Now we have 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 1st
Tonya K. - 8th
Tara L - 15th
With no Kwan, there would only have been 2 skaters the following year.
97 - 3 spots. The results?
Tara L - 1st
Kwan - 2nd
Bobek - 13th
1 + 12 = 13, US just squeaks out 3 skaters. Without Kwan, Bobek finishes 12th.
98 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 1st
Tonya K. 6th
No third entrant because Nikodinov was out of the country and could not be reached.
Angela would have been 3rd at Nationals with no Kwan and would have gone to Worlds. We cannot know in this case how many skaters the US would have qualified in a Kwanless world. But given that Angela was 12th next year (11th with no Kwan) 5+11 = 16. Only 2 skaters go.
99 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 2nd
Hughes - 7th
Nikodinov - 12
The two skaters would be Sarah and Angela. The result, only 2 skaters for the US in the following year.
00 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 1st
Hughes - 5th
Nikodinov - 9th
Sarah plus Angela produce a Kwanless number of 4+8=12, so there are 3 spots for the following year.
01 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 1st
Hughes - 3rd
Nikodinov - 5th
(Our strongest threesome finish since 1991)
Angela and Sarah comfortably secure 3 spots
02 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 2nd
Cohen - 4th
Kirk - withdraws due to injury
With no Kwan, the third skater would have been Angela. It is possible that 3 spots could have been secured. Or not. It depends on whether the Angela that was at Nationals skated at Worlds. And how Angela skated at Olympics. It was only after Nationals that she injured her shoulder, so it's just impossible to tell how it would have gone.
03 - 3 spots. The result?
Kwan - 1st
Cohen - 4th
Hughes - 6th
Still 3 spots
But in 2004, in a Kwanless world, the spots are taken by Cohen, Kirk, and Corwin. Amber has been very steady, and has a 4C's medal. She might conceivably have placed top ten or bottom ten. She's never been to Worlds.
So here's the score:
With Kwan: 94 and 95, two skaters qualified
All other years, 3 skaters qualified
Without Kwan
94, only one skater qualified.
95, 02, unclear, possible 3
96, 98, 99, 04, only 2 skaters qualified
97, 00, 01, 03, 3 skaters qualified
So in a Kwanless world, in 5 years, clearly there would have been a drop in the number of skaters for the following year. (94,96,98,99,04)
In four years, there would have been no change. (97, 00, 01, 03)
In two years, 95 and 02, I won't estimate.
So in general, Kwan has not impacted the rise of young skaters. Tara and Sarah steamed right past her at Olympics and Sasha is doing very well.
The skaters that seem to be most impacted by Kwan, were not younger, but peers or older: Bobek, Kwaitkowski, Corwin, Zayak, Nikidinov, because when I look back, I find that those are the skaters that would have been filling in in a Kwanless world. Depending on any of those skaters to secure you 3 spots is very iffy, and I have given them the benefit of the doubt. In fact, I expect there would have been only 2 skaters in 95 and 02 as well.
So Michelle! Don't retire. We need you. Having 3 skaters is very helpful in a lot of ways.
dpp