Figuring out the GP slots (Ladies)

Trewyn said:

Impossible for Wagner to be invited to NHK. There is NO WAY the Japanese fed is going to invite Ashley over Kanako and Mao and they're only allowed 1 from the 4-6 at Worlds. So not NHK for Wagner.

Earlier in the thread someone predicted TEB for Wagner; that would make my year (or skating season). I've been hoping for Wagner to get TEB since I became a fan of her right after her 2007 TEB performances. Paris is only a couple hours away for me

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forgot about the seeding:

how about this...
CoR: Gold and Zhang
TEB: Wagner and Zawadzki
NHK: Czisny and Nagasu

Alissa should be invited at Skate Canada because it's her lucky competition cause she win a medal each times she go

ImaginaryPogue said:

1. Suzuki and Asada duked it out at NHK in 2008 as well as 2011. Between Murakami and Asada, the latter has more audience connection and history. If it was Suzuki and Murakami in the 5th and 6th positions, than yeah - I'd say Suzuki gets left out. As it stands, I'm comfortable with that prediction.

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JSF assigned both Asada and Suzuki to NHK　because they were certain Asada would beat Suzuki, but proven wrong last year. I have no idea how certain they are this year.

mikeko666 said:

JSF assigned both Asada and Suzuki to NHK　because they were certain Asada would beat Suzuki, but proven wrong last year. I have no idea how certain they are this year.

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They just wanted make sure that any one of Japanese skater wins. Very few people would agree that Suzuki could've win if it was not in Japan. I think both Suzuki and Asada will be assigned to NHK. Murakami cannot be trusted in this respect.

NMURA said:

They just wanted make sure that any one of Japanese skater wins. Very few people would agree that Suzuki could've win if it was not in Japan. I think both Suzuki and Asada will be assigned to NHK. Murakami cannot be trusted in this respect.

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I don't know what you mean by "if it was not in Japan". I'd rather think the exact opposite. Asada gets JSF's support most while Suzuki gets none. Mr. Nagakubo, Suzuki's coach said that he thought she wouldn't make it to the Olympic team when he saw the judge panel at 2009 Nationals.

In the case of NHK trophy of last year, since Asada singled the axel and Leonova went clean in the SP, they "decided" to push up Suzuki as high as possible. If it was not in Japan, surely there's no such thing. And if they wanted to let Asada win, the 8 points difference is too much to catch up. Their priority was pretty obvious.

In addition, Ando is taking a season off and Murakami (originally considered as the solid #2) has made a horrible showing at CoC. They needed to promote Suzuki to the #2 position in order to secure 3 spots at worlds. NHK trophy (where home favoritism is always evident) was a very suitable place to do that.

NMURA said:

In the case of NHK trophy of last year, since Asada singled the axel and Leonova went clean in the SP, they "decided" to push up Suzuki as high as possible. If it was not in Japan, surely there's no such thing. And if they wanted to let Asada win, the 8 points difference is too much to catch up. Their priority was pretty obvious.

In addition, Ando is taking a season off and Murakami (originally considered as the solid #2) has made a horrible showing at CoC. They needed to promote Suzuki to the #2 position in order to secure 3 spots at worlds. NHK trophy (where home favoritism is always evident) was a very suitable place to do that.

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How is Murakami considered the solid #2? I was under the impression that with Ando out last season and SUzuki's excellent competitive results, Murakami remained as #3...

chuckm said:

Ashley is guaranteed two GP events, and she's the only US lady who is. She doesn't need Skate America, but the ladies who are guaranteed one by virtue of World Ranking, Seasons Best score, or JW medal (Zhang, Zawadzki, Gold) do need a second event, and may need SA.

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I think Ashley should get SA. She is the most deserving skater based on this season. Furthermore, being a home skater she will likely get a boost in scores that could further improve her reputation with the judges. What I mean is that if she scores well at SA her base mark in the judges' minds might be higher. I did feel she was held back a bit this season and I think it was due (in part) to not having a history of high scoring programs like those who placed ahead of her. While it may mean another American may not get a second event, I don't think there is a particularly compelling argument to favor any of them over Ashley.

Becki said:

How is Murakami considered the solid #2? I was under the impression that with Ando out last season and SUzuki's excellent competitive results, Murakami remained as #3...

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She isn't number 2, she's number 3, next season she could even be number 4 if Miki comes back in good form, Akiko's momentum continues, and Mao is skating like she was earlier this season as opposed to at Worlds. If anything, I fear for Mao's status. Her 3a is less and less consistent, almost always cheated even when landed, and it appears she can no longer do 3-3s. If she's on form, she doesn't need these to do well, but with mistakes, she could slip to number 4 feasibly, especially if Kanako regains her form from 10-11. That being said, if Kanako addresses her URs and Akiko isn't quite so on fire next season, Kanako can easily replace Akiko as number 2 (3 if Miki comes back), as the Japanese Fed seems to prefer her.

If this clause remains..
"c) “Come-Back” Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 at any previous ISU World Figure Skating Championships) and subsequently did not participate in one or more competitive seasons are allowed to re-enter the Grand Prix if they commit to participating in 2 Grand Prix events. A come-back under this clause is allowed only once for any skater. ......"

it will be applied to Miki, Yu-Na, Joannie, ... and who else?

Or, will Miki and Joannie be considered as "participated" in competitive season(s) just by "Japan Open" ?
JO doesn't have SP in it, so I don't think it means "having participated" ....

The Japan Open is an INVITATION ONLY event. It is an ISU-sanctioned 'cheesefest': no ISU Ranking points are awarded and it isn't part of the "competitive season".

NMURA said:

In the case of NHK trophy of last year, since Asada singled the axel and Leonova went clean in the SP, they "decided" to push up Suzuki as high as possible. If it was not in Japan, surely there's no such thing. And if they wanted to let Asada win, the 8 points difference is too much to catch up. Their priority was pretty obvious.

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JSF has never pushed up Suzuki, and never will. She was even demoted from S-rank to A-rank last year, and JSF was practically pressuring her to retire. They then promoted her and Imai to S-rank after each of them got two slots in GPS. They had no choice but to promote Suzuki if they wanted to do the same to Imai.

The judges at NHK could have let Asada win using PCS as a place holder if they wanted because Suzuki didn't skate a clean FS, and I was really surprised that they didn't.

What does an S-rank and A-rank mean?

brightphoton said:

What does an S-rank and A-rank mean?

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S(special)-rank is the highest rank of JSF Special Trainees, A-rank is the second highest, B-rank is the third.

Last year, Ando, Asada, Murakami, Kozuka, Takahashi, Oda, and Hanyu were selected as S-rank trainees while Suzuki and Imai were as A. Note that Hanyu didn't make it to the Worlds last year just like Suzuki didn't. Then Suzuki and Imai were promoted to S after they were assigned to two GPS events each. Ando remained in S even after she decided to skip the entire season although I don't if she still received the full funding as an S-rank trainee.

This year, Ando, Asada, Murakami Suzuki, Takahashi, Kozuka, Hanyu, and Oda were selected as S. Note that Oda skipped most of the last season due to a knee injury but still remained in S this year. Suzuki made it to GPF in 2010-2011, but was demoted to A last year.

mikeko666 said:

JSF has never pushed up Suzuki, and never will.

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Akiko was in Japan's squad B, C or even D for her entire career until the 2009-2010 season when she finally medaled at J-nationals at the age of 24 and got a ticket to the Olympics, ended up on 8th place, and the Worlds, ended up 11th. Next season again she didn't make a J-team and ended up on the 4th position at J-nationals. This season was her second season when she could podium at J-nationals at the age of 26 and got a ticket to the Worlds. I don't see where JSF discriminated her. She will be almost 29 in Sochi and she is not Plushenko. I some how understand why JSF is more interested in promoting Murakami who could podium at J-nationals at the age of 16 first time, 8 years eariler than Akiko could do the same.

mikeko666 said:

JSF has never pushed up Suzuki, and never will. She was even demoted from S-rank to A-rank last year, and JSF was practically pressuring her to retire. They then promoted her and Imai to S-rank after each of them got two slots in GPS. They had no choice but to promote Suzuki if they wanted to do the same to Imai.

The judges at NHK could have let Asada win using PCS as a place holder if they wanted because Suzuki didn't skate a clean FS, and I was really surprised that they didn't.

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They just want a Japanese skater to win NHK trophy and medal at worlds. I don't think Suzuki has gained much respect from the JSF even with the world bronze medal. If it was not in Japan, Asada would've won from two reasons. (1) Suzuki wouldn't be held up so high in the SP, (2) Asada would've been given more PCS advantages. That's partly due to Suzuki's "too high" PCS in the SP.

So the JSF is basically treating Suzuki the way the RFSF treated Maria Butyrskaya. They didn't push for Maria much even after she won Worlds.

Yikes!

let`s talk said:

Akiko was in Japan's squad B, C or even D for her entire career until the 2009-2010 season when she finally medaled at J-nationals at the age of 24 and got a ticket to the Olympics, ended up on 8th place, and the Worlds, ended up 11th. Next season again she didn't make a J-team and ended up on the 4th position at J-nationals. This season was her second season when she could podium at J-nationals at the age of 26 and got a ticket to the Worlds. I don't see where JSF discriminated her. She will be almost 29 in Sochi and she is not Plushenko. I some how understand why JSF is more interested in promoting Murakami who could podium at J-nationals at the age of 16 first time, 8 years eariler than Akiko could do the same.

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Puberty uncovered all of Murakami's technical problems this season from her skating skills (so rough and energy inefficient that she runs out of gas in the second half of FS) to jumping techniques (mull kick, flutz, inconsistent 3Lo). She won't be able to fix those problems unless she leaves Machiko Yamada.

Suzuki and Nagakubo expect nothing from JSF anyway. They pushed up Murakami very hard at 2010 GPF to get her on the podium while Suzuki were given surprisingly low scores. That's the same organization that sent Ando instead of Nakano to Turin Olympics, and were LOLed by the whole world.

Many female skaters peak before they reach twenty. Asada is almost 22, not so young anymore. One of the reasons that Suzuki is still technically improving at age of 27 is that she has very solid basics. The other side of the same coin is Asada, who is declining because she neglected the basics when she was a teenager. I feel sorry for Nobuo Sato. No wonder no one wanted his job when Asada was looking for a new coach two years ago. While he wants her to learn correct jumping techniques, she wants to jump like when she was 15, obsessed with 3A and 3F+3Lo. She will never get her 3A back, and 3F+3Lo is not practical in competitions. I have never heard she is working on 3F+3T, not even 3T+3T, and she was not consistent with 2A+3T this season.

All of these politiks-posts here are awkward to read, really... I'm not saying there isn't any of that in figure skating, but sometimes, this discussions reach some pretty bad level.
Suzuki was always given way to low PCS. Agreed. But if those PCS were all JSF influence, then how come Kozuka - who definitly had the JSF support - never got those high PCS Takahashi gets? Hanyu was 'held down' PCS wise at nationals, and received way higher PCS at worlds. Although Kozuka was the JSF-favored one.

mikeko666 said:

I feel sorry for Nobuo Sato. No wonder no one wanted his job when Asada was looking for a new coach two years ago. While he wants her to learn correct jumping techniques, she wants to jump like when she was 15, obsessed with 3A and 3F+3Lo. She will never get her 3A back, and 3F+3Lo is not practical in competitions. I have never heard she is working on 3F+3T, not even 3T+3T, and she was not consistent with 2A+3T this season.

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It's always suprising what people think they know about a sakter. Asada 'wants to jump like when she was 15'? And here I was thinking her goal was Sochi.
It's not as if Asada couldn't decide on her own what she wanted to do or not, she doesn't own anyone to do anything - and just because generally 3-3T combos are better to do doesn't mean it can't be different for her. I'm not too sure she'll get the 3A again, but who am I to tell her - who is the one doing the work - what she should do or not? For worlds she did 8-triples FS practices, and if she would manage that, she would be pretty unbeatable (except for someone else coming up with a 3A). In regards to Sochi, trying that out now was not the worst thing she could have done. Besides that, with the japanese media being all over the 3A pretty much everytime she gives an interview, it's not that hard to understand it's such a main thing for her...

Anyway, regarding the GP slots: Suzuki for NHK is pretty much a sure thing. I think both Asada and Murakami would like to be there too, and since and don't think much of all of this JSF politcs talk I don't see a problem with Asada being there too. She probably wants to skate in Japan, and her name is a better ticket seller than Suzukis or Murakamis.
Kostner would be my pick for TEB again, Leonova gets COR. Since I don't have too much logical explanations for my predictions, better make it short...
SA: Leonova, Wagner (think she's going to do good in front of the home crowd, and she deserves this)
SC: Suzuki, Murakami
COC: Kostner, Wagner
COR: Leonova, Asada
TEB: Kostner, Murakami
NHK: Suzuki, Asada

For the host picks, Sotnikova seemed to be pretty famous in Japan (and is part of the cast for the Ice too), maybe she will be invited there. I just hope the russian wonder baby squad gets two spots each - which seems pretty impossible to begin with. Same for Gold, although she shouldn't have that much of a problem... I'd invite her, if I could
I'd expect Li to go senior. So she will get a COC host pick I think. And at least I'd be happy if Ando would return - so maybe NHK and SA? Simply not enough spots...

chuckm said:

So the JSF is basically treating Suzuki the way the RFSF treated Maria Butyrskaya. They didn't push for Maria much even after she won Worlds.

Yikes!

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Is it supposed to be sarcasm? Sorry, I am not a native English speaker.

If it is not sarcasm, then I don't get it at all. Masha podiumed every time at R-nationals, as well as at Europeans (which she won again in 2002), even after she won Worlds in 1999 and took bronze the following year. I don't get your point about her being mistreated by RFSF.

mikeko666 said:

They pushed up Murakami very hard at 2010 GPF to get her on the podium

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Suzuki took the same medal a year before. They pushed up her very hard too according to your logic? Then nothing to complain about I guess. Too much theory with no grounds.

obsessed with 3A and 3F+3Lo

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Sotnikova also keeps performing 3L-3Lo combo, so rare one. The fact that these way more difficult combos than those with the second 3T jump are not rewarding enough as they should be is not skaters' problem. It's the judging system problem. The audience wishes to see different combos, so their execution should be encouraged.